Rumor: Intel Killing Off 10nm Process

Vanta Aurelius · Oct 22, 2018

As this "news" could have an impact on the PC gaming landscape. I thought it is thread worthy.

SemiAccurate S|A said:
For several years now SemiAccurate has been saying the the 10nm process as proposed by Intel would never be financially viable. Now we are hearing from trusted moles that the process is indeed dead and that is a good thing for Intel, if they had continued along their current path the disaster would have been untenable. Our moles are saying the deed has finally been done.

https://semiaccurate.com/2018/10/22/intel-kills-off-the-10nm-process/

I know S|A has a not too positive reputation, but they have been right before. What does everyone think of this news?

Edit: Adding The Oregon Live report:

Mike Rogoway (Oregan Live) said:
Intel will split its vaunted manufacturing unit into three pieces, the company told employees Monday. And Sohail Ahmed, who has jointly led the manufacturing organization since 2016, will retire next month.

https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2018/10/intel_manufacturing_vp_sohail.html

rebelcrusader · Oct 22, 2018

Lol okay

jett · Oct 22, 2018

And AMD is launching 7nm CPUs and GPUs next year, right? Market's gonna be really interesting indeed.

Nirolak · Oct 22, 2018

Have you paid $1000 for their report on the topic yet?

SuperSonic · Oct 22, 2018

But i've been waiting on cannonlake for years. Now what will I do?

Deleted member 44371 · Oct 22, 2018

Can someone explain like im five since I dont know a lot of about this?

Cyanity · Oct 22, 2018

So are they just gonna skip 10 and go straight to 7nm?

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

jett said:
And AMD is launching 7nm CPUs and GPUs next year, right? Market's gonna be really interesting indeed.

Thats why intel is probably trying to leapfrog amd with their own 7nm

SuperSonic said:
But i've been waiting on cannonlake for years. Now what will I do?

You wait for another lake

Buddeh · Oct 22, 2018

I understand how someone might think this means Intel can't even do 10nm, so they'll stick to 14nm for the foreseeable future.

Anyways, I'm really really happy AMD is back. If they can beat Intel to the 7nm market, even by months, that would be huge for them.

BAW · Oct 22, 2018

Yes, because we're so close to 7nm it doesn't make sense to introduce anything else.

That will be $1000, will you be paying me with cash or credit card?

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

Buddeh said:
I understand how someone might think this means Intel can't even do 10nm, so they'll stick to 14nm for the foreseeable future.

Anyways, I'm really really happy AMD is back. If they can beat Intel to the 7nm market, even by months, that would be huge for them.

Exactly. If AMD is first with 7nm it is a huge milestone for them.

Lausebub · Oct 22, 2018

BAW said:
Yes, because we're so close to 7nm it doesn't make sense to introduce anything else.

That will be $1000, will you be paying me with cash or credit card?

But Intels 10nm is equivalent to TSMCs 7nm process.

jelly · Oct 22, 2018

Did Intel dominating put them this mess, they just got complacent?

How can they easily jump to 7nm, what's different that makes that more achievable?

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

Lausebub said:
But Intels 10nm is basically 7nm.

Intels 10nm is 10nm

Nostremitus · Oct 22, 2018

BAW said:
Yes, because we're so close to 7nm it doesn't make sense to introduce anything else.

That will be $1000, will you be paying me with cash or credit card?

To be fair, Intel 10nm would have been roughly the same size as AMD 7nm.

GMM · Oct 22, 2018

AMD is in a really good position then if Intel can't get 10nm out the door. Intel will likely just try to go to a 7nm process, but the question is how long this will take and what AMD manages to produce on a 7nm node in the meantime.

Exciting times in the CPU space, wish I bought that AMD stock two years back.

rebelcrusader · Oct 22, 2018

Lausebub said:
But Intels 10nm is basically 7nm.

Which makes every comment in this thread all the more hilarious

Dreams-Visions · Oct 22, 2018

so where are they going from here?

Vanta Aurelius · Oct 22, 2018

The article is probably insinuating that Intel is just following a route that's similar to what TSMC and Samsung are doing in their 7nm process than doing what they were originally planning for their 10nm process.

Deleted member 11018 · Oct 22, 2018

It comes in the context of the split of the manufacturing unit into 3, and the early retirement of the co-head of the manufacturing unit.
https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2018/10/intel_manufacturing_vp_sohail.html

challenges of 7nm are complex:
https://semiengineering.com/power-delivery-affecting-performance-at-7nm/

~Fake · Oct 22, 2018

Nirolak said:
Have you paid $1000 for their report on the topic yet?

I curious too after that $1000 about ps5 last report.

Deleted member 9317 · Oct 22, 2018

jett said:
And AMD is launching 7nm CPUs and GPUs next year, right? Market's gonna be really interesting indeed.

Yes, AMD is focusing on 16nm / 14nm / 7nm chips. 10nm doesn't make that much sense.

Buddeh · Oct 22, 2018

I'm sure Intel will deny it until their blue in the face, but that looks a lot like a thinly veiled reference to AMD's new Ryzen 2 processors being referred to as using a 12nm node despite them essentially being exactly the same as the 14nm design. AMD themselves have explained the 12nm design is "not an area statement, it's a power efficiency statement," and when delidding his Ryzen 2 chips De8auer found that there was zero difference in the size of the CPU compared with first-gen Ryzen.

Though the naming is not down to AMD, it's down to GlobalFoundries who created the 12nm FinFET design AMD have used for the Ryzen 7 2700Xand Ryzen 5 2600X. But GlobalFoundries are claiming density improvements over their own 14nm process, so it's possible there really are 12nm transistors in there.

But node measurements are pretty hazy at the best of times. While it used to be measured by the drawn gate length of a volume production chip it's now a bit more ephemeral, and Intel aren't exactly pure as the driven snow in this either.

Well okay them

1-D_FE · Oct 22, 2018

DudleyBoi said:
As this "news" could have an impact on the PC gaming landscape. I thought it is thread worthy.

https://semiaccurate.com/2018/10/22/intel-kills-off-the-10nm-process/

I know S|A has a not too positive reputation, but they have been right before. What does everyone think of this news?

I think they throw shit against the wall and every so often, it sticks.

Do I believe this, though? Absolutely. It's been an absolute dumpster fire that gets delayed year after year. They've hired a lot of smart people of late (ie Jim Keller, etc). If they've come up with a new plan that keeps what was working, ditches what didn't, and incorporates ideas from the new blood, it kind of makes sense just to ditch it and start with something new. That 10nm process has become quicksand for them.

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

Shao Kahn said:
Yes, AMD is focusing on 16nm / 14nm / 7nm chips. 10nm doesn't make that much sense.

Ryzen 2XXX is 12nm

ILikeFeet · Oct 22, 2018

We'll see. They've been pushing 10nm back as far as they can, but I think they'll get there, even if it hurts their wallet

And the consumers

Save us Zen 2

1-D_FE · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
Ryzen 2XXX is 12nm

It's more like 16nm++, though. If this were Intel, that's how they'd label things. It's their 16nm process with some enhancements. Intel is always more honest about that and just calls those a + process.

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

1-D_FE said:
It's more like 16nm++, though. If this were Intel, that's how they'd label things. It's their 16nm process with some enhancements. Intel is always more honest about that and just calls those a + process.

Lol calling intel honest. Intel says their 9900k chip is 95 TDP when it is 221 watts

1-D_FE · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
Lol calling intel honest. Intel says their 9900k chip is 95 TDP when it is 221 watts

Dude, I'm rocking a 2700 and can't wait for 7nm Zen 2 to hit. And Intel and Nvidia are both at the top of my shit list. I'm just saying, it's the 16nm process with enhancements. Intel would have called that a + process, though.

I didn't read the reviews, but I was wondering what the TDP was gonna be on that. Cause you damn well know Intel didn't switch to soldering out of choice. LOL

ILikeFeet · Oct 22, 2018

1-D_FE said:
It's more like 16nm++, though. If this were Intel, that's how they'd label things. It's their 16nm process with some enhancements. Intel is always more honest about that and just calls those a + process.

More like 20nm, but without the fuck up

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

1-D_FE said:
Dude, I'm rocking a 2700 and can't wait for 7nm Zen 2 to hit. And Intel and Nvidia are both at the top of my shit list. I'm just saying, it's the 16nm process with enhancements. Intel would have called that a + process, though.

I didn't read the reviews, but I was wondering what the TDP was gonna be on that. Cause you damn well know Intel didn't switch to soldering out of choice. LOL

I have the 2700X, amazing cpu.

Will buy 7nm ryzen for sure

Deleted member 9317 · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
Ryzen 2XXX is 12nm

1-D_FE said:
It's more like 16nm++, though. If this were Intel, that's how they'd label things. It's their 16nm process with some enhancements. Intel is always more honest about that and just calls those a + process.

Hmm, disclaimer: I honestly have no clue about chips and their sizes, what's in the market and what's being created.

However, I am hunting for jobs and have been seeing lots of AMD jobs focusing on "16nm / 14nm / 7nm chips" and "CPU / GPU / APU and semi-custom AMD's products featured in Sony Playstation and Microsoft Xbox" so to me it seems like the focus is now on 16nm / 14nm / 7nm chip combo.

neoak · Oct 22, 2018

jett said:
And AMD is launching 7nm CPUs and GPUs next year, right? Market's gonna be really interesting indeed.

Cyanity said:
So are they just gonna skip 10 and go straight to 7nm?

SantaC said:
Thats why intel is probably trying to leapfrog amd with their own 7nm

You wait for another lake

Buddeh said:
I understand how someone might think this means Intel can't even do 10nm, so they'll stick to 14nm for the foreseeable future.

Anyways, I'm really really happy AMD is back. If they can beat Intel to the 7nm market, even by months, that would be huge for them.

BAW said:
Yes, because we're so close to 7nm it doesn't make sense to introduce anything else.

That will be $1000, will you be paying me with cash or credit card?

SantaC said:
Exactly. If AMD is first with 7nm it is a huge milestone for them.

SantaC said:
Intels 10nm is 10nm

GMM said:
AMD is in a really good position then if Intel can't get 10nm out the door. Intel will likely just try to go to a 7nm process, but the question is how long this will take and what AMD manages to produce on a 7nm node in the meantime.

Exciting times in the CPU space, wish I bought that AMD stock two years back.

Shao Kahn said:
Yes, AMD is focusing on 16nm / 14nm / 7nm chips. 10nm doesn't make that much sense.

TSMC/Samsung 7nm is actually "7nm", pure marketing unlike Intel's name for their nodes.

Intel's 10nm is comparable to the others "7nm", and Intel's is usually smaller in most things, unlike the others that base their marketing name on one thing like Gate size or something.

But then again, semiconductor manufacture is more of an exotic EE art, so 99.99% of people take the marketing name at face value.

hydrophilic attack · Oct 22, 2018

hope that POS company gets into a lot of trouble

see also: nvidia

neoak · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
Lol calling intel honest. Intel says their 9900k chip is 95 TDP when it is 221 watts

TDP is a magic number under certain controlled conditions, they actually list the conditions but most people don't know how they reach that number, so they say stuff like your say.

Also, TDP Watts /= Power Watts

Fire Bocchi · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
Lol calling intel honest. Intel says their 9900k chip is 95 TDP when it is 221 watts

the one being being dehonest is youl, intel does not and has not used synthetic loads for tdp, and was always actually based it on actual real scenarios, which from what i can find, is accurate

Xclash · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

FireWarrior said:
the one being being dehonest is youl, intel does not and has not used synthetic loads for tdp, and was always actually based it on actual real scenarios, which from what i can find, is accurate

I hope intel burns, they deserve it for doing nothing while they didnt had competition

Fire Bocchi · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
I hope intel burns, they deserve it for doing nothing while they didnt had competition

i see how it is, no point point in even trying to argue with you if your gonna just gonna argue in bath faith

Vanta Aurelius · Oct 22, 2018

Xclash said:

Welp, the rumor has been debunked. Nothing to see here folks...

I guess making a thread off of a SemiAccurate article is always a hard gamble.

Edit: It is strange that Intel responded to Charlie's article so quickly. They usually never release any responses to his stuff. Maybe shareholders are antsy enough about 10nm that Intel wants to nip any possible agitating news in the butt.

DieH@rd · Oct 22, 2018

DudleyBoi said:
Maybe shareholders are antsy enough about 10nm that Intel wants to nip any possible agitating news in the butt.

Rightfully so.

neoak · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
I hope intel burns, they deserve it for doing nothing while they didnt had competition

Nothing? Nehalem to Kaby Lake was nothing?

Really?

SantaC · Oct 22, 2018

Intel is just 3 years late with 10nm

neoak · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
Intel is just 3 years late with 10nm

They tried to do EUV ahead of everyone else,they got fucked for being first.

We are talking stuff you can measure in atoms. Atoms.

ethomaz · Oct 22, 2018

Nice decision.

Their 10nm is too aggressive... in a lot os points it is smaller than marketing 7nm.

famikon · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
Intel is just 3 years late with 10nm

Deleted member 27751 · Oct 22, 2018

FireWarrior said:
i see how it is, no point point in even trying to argue with you if your gonna just gonna argue in bath faith

I mean, they have a point in that Intel is a scummy tech company but you can't just hand wave that in a discussion like they have.

What I'm most interested in is actually AMDs APU line-up, I made a build for a friend with the 2400g I think it was and that actually did exceedingly well on 720p. The great thing was you chuck a GPU in and it's actually a not bad CPU.

Deleted member 9317 · Oct 22, 2018

neoak said:
TSMC/Samsung 7nm is actually "7nm", pure marketing unlike Intel's name for their nodes.

Intel's 10nm is comparable to the others "7nm", and Intel's is usually smaller in most things, unlike the others that base their marketing name on one thing like Gate size or something.

But then again, semiconductor manufacture is more of an exotic EE art, so 99.99% of people take the marketing name at face value.

TIL. Thanks!

navanman · Oct 22, 2018

Repost:
I heard this rumour 2-3 months ago from friend working for supplier at Intel Oregon.
Something to it anyway, Intel are re-tooling Intel Israel F28 from 10nm to 14nm so as they can get some product out the door there & recoup some of the investment costs.

I heard its the back-end process that is the problem for 10nm.
Intel process is split into front-end (non-copper) and back-end (copper).
They went very ambitious with new materials for back-end & it has failed badly.
Rumour is the back-end is going to a modified 14nm node.

ThereAreFourNaan · Oct 22, 2018

SantaC said:
I hope intel burns, they deserve it for doing nothing while they didnt had competition

They did plenty, they just charged heavily for it. Hex cores for consumers / gamers have been around for like 4 years but they had no reason to offer it at competitive prices.

10nm delays are not related to lack of competition.

Rumor: Intel Killing Off 10nm Process

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