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Russia has begun a full-scale invasion in Ukraine [READ STAFF POSTS]

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Darkstorne

Darkstorne

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,064
England
cartoon_soldier said:
I am curious what is the next course of action here for Ukraine, for the rest of the year.

I assume that currently they need to ride out the Russian attacks, while US reinforces their stockpiles and provides more weapons. They will need to be training new soldiers too to reinforce the defensive lines. They will continue to launch attacks using drones and missiles into Russian territories like they are already doing, and we can hope that Washington wakes up and allows them to attack military targets in Russia which would provide much better results for Ukraine.

Will they be preparing or training for a counter offensive later in the year that accounts for F-16s being delivered?
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My reading on it is I imagine a big counter offensive is a long way away. Like, possibly not even next year. All depends on how things go over the next 12 months. But if Ukraine is able to train up reserves, all the while denying Putin from achieving even his minimalist goals (annexing the east), and continuing to degrade Russian infrastructure with drone attacks, then Russia seems somewhat boned. It leaves Putin unable to declare any kind of military victory, while troop and equipment losses reach critical levels, and his economy starts to fall apart. Combine that scenario for Russia with troop reinforcements and F-16s for Ukraine, and that should also leave him unable to negotiate a peace treaty that cedes territory to him.

But there are still so many variables that can turn this around, and we should all be getting used to that by now with news cycles that flip back and forth between positivity and negativity. Maybe Putin orders mass mobilization. Maybe China directly supplies Russia with military hardware. Maybe Belarus joins the invasion. And then there are the "good news" variables too, like permissions granted to strike military targets inside Russia with western weapons, and allied countries sending troops to Ukraine to man the borders with Belarus.
 
steejee

steejee

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,999
Like has happened in the past, I get the feeling that when (rather than if) the USA expands the parameters of how provided equipment is used to permit some strikes in Russia (guessing very limited - near border bases and staging areas rather than infrastructure), we'll find out about it the same way the Russians will - when a lot of things in Russia go boom that were beyond Ukraines known capabilities.
 
Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Banned
Feb 25, 2018
8,709
maabus1999 said:
Really is coming down to Biden, and maybe a little on Scholz due to artillery donations, but yeah, needs to be done, especially with the threat of invasion towards Sumy and possibly even from Belarus again.
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Are the limitations in place more about gas pricesthan fear of escalation?

He was sceptical about Russian threats to use nuclear weapons, saying: "The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn't kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we'll destroy all of them.
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That's how you do it.
 
Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
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Feb 25, 2018
8,709
Spesi

Spesi

Member
Apr 26, 2022
808
Finland
KastuśKalinoŭski said:
disgusting


View: https://x.com/OlenaWave/status/1793406125490262490

why this horseshit is still allowed in Europe, idk. Like she literally has ties with FSB (it's just not possible to be so close to putin and don't have it)

also, literally last month she praised "russian traditional values". let's allow her to enjoy those so-called "values" by keeping her at home
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France once again doing everything to fight back Russia while letting these assholes in I see. Great job! /s
 
Greenpaint

Greenpaint

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,939
kyivindependent.com

Zelensky: Russian losses during Kharkiv offensive 8 times higher than Ukraine's

Speaking to the Kazakh outlet Vlast, Zelensky said the figure shows Russian dictator Vladimir Putin "has absolutely no regard for human life."
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

"Their breakthrough in the direction of Kharkiv, which occurred a little over two weeks ago, [resulted in] military casualties of 1 to 8 – one Ukrainian to eight Russians," Zelensky said while speaking to reporters on May 24 in the ruins of a Kharkiv print house which was destroyed in a Russian missile attack a day earlier

Zelensky said he is constantly updated with Russian casualty figures and even before the Kharkiv offensive there were two-three thousand victims a week. "Two-three thousand families lost their children. He doesn't care at all," he added.
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8:1 Russia:Ukraine loss ratio seems worse than usual for Russia?
 
BringBackSonics

BringBackSonics

Member
Oct 27, 2017
45,859
Seattle
KastuśKalinoŭski said:
www.theguardian.com

Polish foreign minister calls for long-term rearmament of Europe

Exclusive: Radosław Sikorski also says he favours deepest possible inclusion of UK in EU defence structures
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Sikorski is on the point. Europe needs to maintain its strategic ambiguity and play the escalation game better. Also Europe needs to get back to a war time footing in regards to their military industry at least while Russia is a viable threat
 
Sarek

Sarek

Member
Oct 27, 2017
486
kmfdmpig said:
Careful, you'll be called bigoted for making the bold assertion, which lines up with all evidence, that many many Russians are OK and supportive of this war.
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I hadn't been aware this was in a kinda of question? Unbiased polls, as unbiased as they can be in Russia, have shown that clear majority of Russians support the war.
 
kmfdmpig

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,747
Sarek said:
I hadn't been aware this was in a kinda of question? Unbiased polls, as unbiased as they can be in Russia, have shown that clear majority of Russians support the war.
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I was accused of being bigoted a few pages ago for saying something similar. Lots of people want to live in a fairyland in which Putin dying means that Russia magically becomes a productive and helpful member of the world community despite all evidence pointing to Putin being a symptom of issues across the country rather than the cause.
 
EagleClaw

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
11,212
Sarek said:
I hadn't been aware this was in a kinda of question? Unbiased polls, as unbiased as they can be in Russia, have shown that clear majority of Russians support the war.
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I wouldn't trust even unbiased polls from Russia.
Surely not many Russians will tell someone at the phone or their door that they are against the "special operation" while many got fined are imprisoned for that.

That being said, as far as i know Russians have some strong militaristic national pride and follow what the Russian orthodox church says,
therefore i can see a lot of support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
 
KastuśKalinoŭski

KastuśKalinoŭski

Member
Nov 23, 2019
7,930
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎

View: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1794377289360089105

russians struck a heart of Kharkiv, the most populated area in the city (Saltivka).

These buildings that I have highlighted are 100- 200-435 long 12 story buildings that house 450000 people.

Most of them, on the weekend go the shopping center next to them, the mall has home improvement store (that was struck), two very large shopping malls with movie theatre, food courts, trampoline park, hockey arena and much more.

My father in law was 200 meters away from there as he has a small electronics store. He usually goes to the epicenter at 4:00 PM, but this time he had a customer so he stayed, and that when the strike happened. He was lucky, unfortunately others were not
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View: https://x.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1794402836995809487


View: https://x.com/Tendar/status/1794404055936348652

btw
https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1794381128926986744
While my understanding is f16s have already flown inside Ukraine, it is not yet clear when they will be fully engaged. Or indeed if they are the platforms with radars and missiles able to push Russias glide bomb carrying bombers away.
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KastuśKalinoŭski

KastuśKalinoŭski

Member
Nov 23, 2019
7,930
RRT4 ▶︎▶︎▶︎

View: https://x.com/RiddleRussia/status/1794377290052522420

ridl.io

Fog of War – Riddle Russia

Andrey Pertsev sums up the week (May 20−24)
ridl.io ridl.io
Ivan Popov is a prominent representative of the generals and officers as a whole who are dissatisfied with the state of affairs at the front, the actions of the previous leadership of the Defence Ministry and the continued leadership of the General Staff. Popov, known by his nom de guerre «Spartak», was popular with the army and the so-called war correspondents: he would arrive at the front. go down into the trenches and was not afraid to criticize his superiors. After one of such outbursts of criticisms Popov was removed from his post as commander of the 58th Army and sent from the front to Syria. The arrest of «Spartak» can be seen as a successful operation carried out by his detractors, i.e. the leadership of the General Staff and the now resigned Minister Shoigu. But that same group of malcontents has also suffered losses. The head of the communications department, General Shamarin, who was arrested, is a close associate of the head of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov.
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The fact that a civilian — Andrey Belousov — has been appointed Defence Minister is unlikely to please the hardcore military cadres. In all likelihood, the army elites would have accepted the Kremlin's policy, as they have done many times before, had they only understood what this policy consisted of. But they see no rhyme or reason to this policy, no coherent plan behind it, and so the «fog of war» is growing thicker and thicker.
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Vladimir Putin is only making matters worse, adding to the fog: he is praising the General Staff, and according to the previous rulebook this clear signal would have given the General Staff immunity from attack and loss. «As far as the General Staff and the whole structure of combat work is concerned,» Putin assured, «there are no changes and no plans for them. I want this to be clear to everyone».

But what might have sounded like a reassurance and a clarification, a point of reference in the thick fog, was followed by Shamarin's arrest and a new round of disorientation. It is unlikely that the density of Russia's very special «fog of war' will contribute to the effectiveness of the Russian army's actions at the front.
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Speaking of Belousov. Remember, how some russian analysts who fled russia (like Alexandra Prokopenko) said that he's not corrupted.
Compared to figures like Shoigu and his detained deputy Ivanov, Belousov appears ascetic.
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"ascetic" my ass
... in 2017, Belousov deposited 600 thousand euros (that's about 35.8 million rubles at the lowest exchange rate for that year) into an account at the Maltese Bank of Valletta. The Dossier journalists learned about these funds from a letter from the bank asking to confirm the origin of the funds. At the same time, for 2012-2017 Belousov earned 40.7 million rubles. "That is, to accumulate such an amount, the official had to save most of his salary for five years," the journalists point out.
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In addition to his wife Veronika Nikishina, he maintained a close relationship with a high-ranking employee of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives, Olga, who regularly wrote him romantic messages mixed with work-related issues. The agency was created in 2011 at Belousov's suggestion, journalist Farida Rustamova wrote. Belousov was apparently torn between several women, but could only come to a decision by the summer of 2019: "I love my wife very much. This is the woman I have been looking for all my life. Don't write me anymore. And don't call me."
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back in 2014, he and Nikishina moved into a spacious apartment on Mytnaya Street, in an elite housing estate with the unpatriotic name "English Quarter. It is hard to realize from its interior that Belousov considers moderation to be one of his main principles. In the mail of the official found numerous photos of the cat on the background of the elite apartment. It is decorated in the traditional for officials Empire style with marble and gold, and the shelves of the personal library are stacked with icons.
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As for Belousov's son, he has already been the subject of journalistic investigations. Back in 2020, the publication Metla reported that 21-year-old Pavel Belousov and his wife (an instablogger with almost a million followers) opened a consulting agency called Claire&Clarté almost immediately after graduating from university. Its clients include the state corporations Roscosmos and Rosatom, whose supervisory boards Belousov Sr. sits on, as well as Rostec
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dossier.center

Искушение Белоусова

Портрет нового министра обороны
dossier.center dossier.center
www.currenttime.tv

"Досье": в 2018 году глава Минобороны Белоусов продал виллу в Италии, а за год до этого положил на счет в мальтийском банке 600 тысяч евро

Министр обороны России Андрей Белоусов в 2018 году продал виллу в итальянской коммуне Форте-деи-Марми на побережье Средиземного моря, узнал центр "Досье", изучив архивные документы в его почте. В предварительном контракте по продаже виллы, как утверждается, в качестве потенциального клиента...
www.currenttime.tv www.currenttime.tv
 
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Strikerrr

Strikerrr

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,215
Shevek said:
A Chinese mercenary posted a video to social media describing conditions on the frontline for Russia based on the 2 weeks he'd spent in the field. It sounds absolutely brutal, and is probably the best first-hand account I've seen from someone fighting on Russia's side.


View: https://youtu.be/wly5pS-14r4?si=-w-Rwe2SKEW2XuLf&t=339
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Direct link
www.youtube.com

A former PLA soldier hired by Russians gives a reality check on Russia-Ukraine war

Li Jianwei is a former PLA soldier and a Chinese mercenary hired by Russia. He talks about his experiences in the Russia-Ukraine war on Chinese social media....
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
 
Maquiladora

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,191
Russian strategic bombers have taken off. Waves of drones reported in the air too. Another night of Russian terror for the people of Ukraine.
 
artsi

artsi

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,721
Finland
KastuśKalinoŭski said:

View: https://x.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1794485603360514137

LZ 129 Hindenburg
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Me living near the border trying to spot these stupid things

giphy.gif
 
Culex

Culex

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,069
The difference between Ukraine and Russia with targeting is night and day. Ukraine could definitely cause absolute terror launching at civilian targets in Bolgorod Russia but obviously do not.

Really shows the mantra between both countries.
 
Jroc

Jroc

Member
Jun 9, 2018
6,266
Maquiladora said:
Russian strategic bombers have taken off. Waves of drones reported in the air too. Another night of Russian terror for the people of Ukraine.
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Wish someone could hide in the woods and launch a stinger at one of those bombers during takeoff. I'm guess airbase security must be pretty tight or the range on manpads isn't good enough.
 
Ruken

Ruken

Member
Oct 29, 2017
217
ISW Assessment, May 25, 2024

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

Key Takeaways:


  • Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.
  • The likely premature start of Russian offensive operations appears to have undermined Russian success in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian forces continue to leverage their sanctuary in Russian airspace to strike Kharkiv City to devastating effect, likely as part of efforts to depopulate the city and demoralize Ukrainians.
  • Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities reportedly impacted the effectiveness of select Western weapon systems in Ukraine in 2023 as Ukraine and Russia continue to compete in a technical offense-defense race.
  • Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov categorically rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy and outlined Russia's maximalist conditions for peace negotiations during an interview with Newsweek on May 25.
  • Russia is likely helping North Korea develop its defense industrial base (DIB) in exchange for North Korean munitions supplies, and US officials reportedly assess that Russia may also be supplying North Korea with military equipment, weapons, or technology.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has cancelled its annual "Army Games" international competition for the second year in a row, prompting celebration among critical Russian ultranationalist milbloggers.


Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2025%2C%202024.png


Chasiv%20Yar%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2025%2C%202024.png
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Darkstorne

Darkstorne

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,064
England
BringBackSonics said:

View: https://x.com/benwallace70/status/1794464867472355786?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
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It has been LUDICROUS seeing so many western officials repeating the mantra that Israel has the right to defend itself while using western weapons to devastate the Gaza strip, while simultaneously suggesting that Ukraine is not entitled to defend itself fully against an invasion from Russia.

But like others have pointed out already, I imagine we're looking at a few more months of conjecture at least before Ukraine is finally given the go ahead to strike back against the aggressor.
 
Sidewinder

Sidewinder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,471
Darkstorne said:
It has been LUDICROUS seeing so many western officials repeating the mantra that Israel has the right to defend itself while using western weapons to devastate the Gaza strip, while simultaneously suggesting that Ukraine is not entitled to defend itself fully against an invasion from Russia.

But like others have pointed out already, I imagine we're looking at a few more months of conjecture at least before Ukraine is finally given the go ahead to strike back against the aggressor.
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If this ever happens I hope they'll give the green light when Ukraine's ammunition stock is at max, their weapons arsenal as well and most importantly give zero signs of it happening until way after they launch a massive strike on Russian territory.

But is the last part even possible, or will these things have to be discussed and accepted in public?
 
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