horkrux

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,924
I read yesterday from an expert or politician that Western Ukraine should be considered "safe". Ridiculous.

It has been LUDICROUS seeing so many western officials repeating the mantra that Israel has the right to defend itself while using western weapons to devastate the Gaza strip, while simultaneously suggesting that Ukraine is not entitled to defend itself fully against an invasion from Russia.

But like others have pointed out already, I imagine we're looking at a few more months of conjecture at least before Ukraine is finally given the go ahead to strike back against the aggressor.

They think there is something to gain from preventing strikes into Russia, that's the problem.
 
Nov 23, 2019
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little gnome shit his pants


View: https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1794667734388932708

and this imbecile is wrong of course, former US officials (current ones can't comment publicly on this issue for obvious reasons) already hinted about that hypothetical response in 2023, like Petraeus for example
www.theguardian.com

Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’

So Sikorski just confirmed it.
 
Nov 23, 2019
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Yellen warns German banks to boost compliance with US sanctions on Russia
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged German bank executives on Tuesday to step up efforts to comply with sanctions against Russia and shut down efforts to circumvent them to avoid potential penalties themselves that would cut off dollar access.

Yellen said at the start of a meeting with bankers that the Treasury's new authority to hit banks with secondary sanctions if they aid Russian military-related transactions had helped to frustrate Russia's efforts to procure goods needed for its war in Ukraine, but more work was needed.


finance.yahoo.com

European banks in Russia face 'awful lot of risk', Yellen says

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters that European banks face growing risks operating in Russia and the U.S. is looking at strengthening its secondary sanctions on banks found to be aiding transactions for Russia's war effort. "We are looking at potentially a tougher stepping-up of...
"We are looking at potentially a tougher stepping-up of our sanctions on banks that do business in Russia," Yellen told Reuters in an interview, declining to provide specifics and not identifying any banks at which they could be aimed.
European Central Bank policymaker Fabio Panetta had clear instructions for Italian banks on Saturday telling reporters that lenders must "get out" of Russia because staying in the country brings a "reputational problem."
Earlier this month, the Treasury warned Raiffeisen in writing that its access to the dollar-denominated financial system could be cut off because of its Russia dealings, citing a proposed 1.5 billion euro ($1.6 billion) deal with a sanctioned Russian tycoon, a person who has seen this correspondence told Reuters.


basically final warning
 
Nov 23, 2019
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The Russian economy on a war footing: A new reality financed by commodity exports

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered unprecedented sanctions, causing an initial GDP drop. This column describes how Russia's economy rebounded due to increased public spending in war-related industries and construction. Military spending is expected to rise further in 2024, fuelled by high...
Using growth accounting, we contemplate several scenarios for long-term growth of the Russian economy (Table 1). We note that labour is not a likely source of economic growth for Russia for the foreseeable future. The negative demographic trends would be hard to overcome unless there is a radical change in the country. Productivity growth is always a big unknown, but for Russia it seems unlikely to be a major source either. The exodus of high-human-capital workers, increasing government intervention, international isolation, and poor protection of property rights are just some of the factors that weigh on productivity growth. Capital accumulation appears to be the only realistic engine. But this can critically depend on Russia's ability to finance and direct investment.

One can anticipate that Russia will be largely excluded from global capital markets and thus the country will have to rely on internal, mostly government sources to cover investment spending. Furthermore, given the increasing role of the government in the economy and specifically its militarisation, one may predict that capital for civilian production might stagnate or even fall. Upside scenarios rely on high oil prices. The balance of risks is such that one can hardly be optimistic about the long-term outlook for the Russian economy. Our results suggest that long-run economic growth for Russia will be less than 1% per year.

What can affect the future course of the Russian economy? Clearly, the military and economic decisions of the Russian government play a central role. Oil prices are another key factor. Finally, we have the pressure of the global community on Russia to stop the aggression. While the first two forces are beyond the direct control of Western democracies, the third force is certainly within their powers. Hence, we conclude with a few reflections on the matter.

We find that sanctions as a key element of the economic statecraft toolbox can be effective when they have clear and limited objectives, are targeted in nature, hard to avoid, and measured against their objectives and adjusted if needed. Sanctions are therefore most effective when they are not imposed "slowly or incrementally as they may simply strengthen the target government" (Hufbauer 2009). At this point, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of sanctions is critically important.


At the same time, some elements of future sanctions are increasingly clear. First, the focus should be on energy exports that fuel the Russian war machine. It is impossible to undermine the macroeconomic stability of a commodity-exporting country in times of soaring commodity prices if no decisive measures are taken to restrict export volumes.
Second, Russia's integration into the world economy and the continued support to Russia from countries such as China requires a more innovative approach, in particular to deal with circumvention schemes.
Third, private sector entities need to be empowered and incentivised to play a role in tracking transactions and controlling supply chains. In effect, a new era of sanctions also requires a new era of corporate responsibility.
Finally, we believe that a more structured approach has to be brought to the design and implementation of sanctions. We need a coherent way to connect tools and objectives across disciplines, possibly through a structured model-driven approach (e.g. Itskhoki and Mukhin 2022, Ghironi et al. 2023).
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
11,212
I will believe it when i see British Storm Shadows hitting Russian army posts in the border region to Ukraine.

There is a lot of talking happening, about hitting Russian targets and boots on the ground,
and i have to say i'm somehow fed up by all the talk and not seeing any actual action.
Like EU Council President calling for comprehensive air defence solutions for Ukraine while there isn't even an special council meeting on such a matter.


View: https://x.com/CharlesMichel/status/1794637237675569524
Charles Michel:
The Russian strike on a Kharkiv supermarket is atrocious.
Russia's efforts to terrorise Ukrainian civilians as part of its war of aggression against Ukraine are criminal.
Together, we can stop Russia's brutal attacks. We need to urgently advance on a comprehensive air defence solution for Ukraine.
 
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maabus1999

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
9,325

These attrition rates continue to be atrocious for Russia. Most of Russia's current production is refurbishment of stored So ief gear and not actual ground up production. Once those storage fields go empty over the next 12 to 18 months, Russia will actually fall behind Western production, which their doctrine can not wage war against effectively. On top of this, Russia's economy also can not increase production either as it is fully employed basically already. Ukraine just needs the support and push correct during this time period.
 

Shevek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,620
Cape Town, South Africa

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia


Scholz noted that he currently sees no reason to expand the area of use of Western weapons in the war in Ukraine.

There are "clear rules for the supply of German weapons that have been agreed with Ukraine and that work," Scholz said.

"At least this is my position," he added.

The aim of his policy towards Ukraine is "to prevent the conflict from escalating into a major war," Scholz added, noting that Germany has so far made the supply of weapons to Ukraine conditional on them not being used on Russian territory.

www.pravda.com.ua

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken out against Ukraine using weapons provided by Western allies to strike Russia.

Scholz continues to be as spineless and as inoffensive to Russia as his position will allow.
 

maabus1999

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
9,325

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia




www.pravda.com.ua

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken out against Ukraine using weapons provided by Western allies to strike Russia.

Scholz continues to be as spineless and as inoffensive to Russia as his position will allow.
Yeah figured. However outside the PZH 2000, not much Germany is providing would be useful. If they also include patriots, then Ukraine would just have to redeploy others who do give permission. Ammo would have plausible deniability due to multiple sources so that wouldn't be an issue.
 

Ridcully

Member
Dec 25, 2020
122
www.yahoo.com

Italy opposes allowing Ukraine to attack Russia with Western-supplied weapons

The Italian government has objected to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who urged the allies to lift restrictions on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine against targets in Russia. Source: Italian news agency Ansa, as reported by European Pravda Details: Matteo Salvini, Italy's Deputy...
I agree with this Italian fellow. Allies should give Ukraine weapons of peace, not war. After all, war is bad. And what single weapon has contributed more to global peace than nukes?
 

EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
11,212

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia




www.pravda.com.ua

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken out against Ukraine using weapons provided by Western allies to strike Russia.

Scholz continues to be as spineless and as inoffensive to Russia as his position will allow.

He also opposes to deliver long-range weapons.
I believe the longest range German delivered weapons reach is 100km with the Pzh 2000.
This additional policy has therefore no effect in the current theatre of war.

Of course it isn't wrong to call this out, but what matters now is the policy on weapon deliveries of countries that deliver long-range weapons and fighter jets.
 

GrantDaNasty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,145

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia




www.pravda.com.ua

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken out against Ukraine using weapons provided by Western allies to strike Russia.

Scholz continues to be as spineless and as inoffensive to Russia as his position will allow.

I strongly hope Germany is redoubling on providing Air Defense then, because not being able to stop Russia from firing into Ukraine means more missiles to shoot down.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
33,680
"prevent from escalating into a major war"

What

What does he think this is
You think this couldn't be worse? In the early days people, especially with ties to Eastern Europe and the Baltics, were worried about Kiev falling and this turning into WW3 as Russian troops marched into the rest of Europe.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
29,008
the Netherlands
You think this couldn't be worse? In the early days people, especially with ties to Eastern Europe and the Baltics, were worried about Kiev falling and this turning into WW3 as Russian troops marched into the rest of Europe.
And that's still the fear if Ukraine were still to lose, hence why people are asking for things such as Ukraine being allowed to strike targets within Russia using weapons supplied by the west. Der Spiegel reported just today that representatives of the Baltic states told German government representatives that they'll send their troops into Ukraine if Russia were to have a strategic breakthrough. These countries are scared shitless that if Ukraine falls they'll be next.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
33,680
And that's still the fear if Ukraine were still to lose, hence why people are asking for things such as Ukraine being allowed to strike targets within Russia using weapons supplied by the west. Der Spiegel reported just today that representatives of the Baltic states told German government representatives that they'll send their troops into Ukraine if Russia were to have a strategic breakthrough. These countries are scared shitless that if Ukraine falls they'll be next.
I'm from the region, I get it. I also get why these Western European nations are a bit cagier: if this escalates past the point of conventional weapons, even if Ukraine wins, the aftermath will be horrific for everyone on the continent.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,490
I'm from the region, I get it. I also get why these Western European nations are a bit cagier: if this escalates past the point of conventional weapons, even if Ukraine wins, the aftermath will be horrific for everyone on the continent.

Unless Ukraine starts marching soldiers into Russia, then I don't think there is any real fear of nuclear escalation. China and India have also been very direct with Russia.
 

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Banned
Feb 25, 2018
8,709
Anyone who fears this escalating into WW3 should provide Ukraine with more weapons. We are just kicking the can and emboldening Putin.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,860
Seattle

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia




www.pravda.com.ua

German Chancellor opposes using Western weapons to strike Russia

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken out against Ukraine using weapons provided by Western allies to strike Russia.

Scholz continues to be as spineless and as inoffensive to Russia as his position will allow.

Fucking hell, hopefully it's one of those, once Biden sign off, then we are good kind of deals
 

Noctis149

Member
May 14, 2024
18
Instead of mobilizing more men Ukraine is starting to use prisoners. Will they be used as fodder like Russians use theirs?
Hopefully not. It would be pretty bad PR, its allies would notice and I'm not so sure that the Ukrainian public would be in favour of meatgrinder assaults even if they are prisoners. After all, if they start using such tactics some may fear that they wil eventually do the same with the mobilized, which would be terrible for morale and not all that effective either.
If they are only now starting to recruit prisoners while Russia has been doing it for a while then does that mean they have fewer issues with recruitment than Russia?
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,747
Hopefully not. It would be pretty bad PR, its allies would notice and I'm not so sure that the Ukrainian public would be in favour of meatgrinder assaults even if they are prisoners. After all, if they start using such tactics some may fear that they wil eventually do the same with the mobilized, which would be terrible for morale and not all that effective either.
If they are only now starting to recruit prisoners while Russia has been doing it for a while then does that mean they have fewer issues with recruitment than Russia?
And the reality is that men who can fight, whether volunteers, conscripted, or released from prison to do so, are in short supply in Ukraine and they cannot afford to throw them away in the same way that Russia does.
 

Noctis149

Member
May 14, 2024
18
We're going to manage the escalation right into nuclear warfare. Putin is already starting to poke around the Baltics a bit with the removal of the river bouys
He won't stop poking until he finds steel. It seems the Baltics are aware of this, so hopefully the rest of NATO backs them and shuts down Putin's appetite for escalation beyond Ukraine. If they do the shitty Sullivan style half measures, or naive "resets" like Obama, then it will only embolden him further and invite disaster.
 

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,634
FIN
If they are only now starting to recruit prisoners while Russia has been doing it for a while then does that mean they have fewer issues with recruitment than Russia?

Nope. Ukraine is struggling with getting enough volunteers, and has been for long time now. Military has been pushing for mobilization for even longer time, but political side keeps saying no.

Ukraine needs a lot more men to front.
 

Res

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,667
I will believe it when i see British Storm Shadows hitting Russian army posts in the border region to Ukraine.
This was my stance when they first said it, and it turned out to be a nothing statement after all. Now it's been weeks and there has yet to be a Storm Shadow strike in Russia. It is extremely clear that the restrictions are still in place
 

Ruken

Member
Oct 29, 2017
217
ISW Assessment, May 26, 2024:

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces are reportedly concentrating forces of unspecified size in western Belgorod Oblast near the border with Ukraine, likely to fix and draw Ukrainian forces to the area and prepare for offensive operations that aim to expand the Russian

Key Takeaways:


  • Russian forces are reportedly concentrating forces of unspecified size in western Belgorod Oblast near the border with Ukraine, likely to fix and draw Ukrainian forces to the area and prepare for offensive operations that aim to expand the Russian foothold in the international border area in northeastern Ukraine.
  • Western officials continue to publicly debate Ukraine's right to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia amid Russian efforts to persuade the West to continue its self-imposed limitations and divide the NATO alliance.
  • Russia's defense industrial base (DIB) will reportedly manufacture and refurbish three times as many artillery shells as the West will produce in 2024, although Russian shells reportedly suffer from quality-control issues and Ukrainian artillery is reportedly more precise than Russian artillery.
  • Kremlin officials continue to indicate that Russia is not interested in meaningful negotiations with Ukraine and promote Kremlin information operations that aim to push the West to make concessions on Ukraine's sovereign territory and people.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
  • Former Wagner Group fighters reportedly continue to form new units under Rosgvardia and Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz.

DraftUkraineCoTMay%2026%2C%202024.png


Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2026%2C%202024.png
 
Nov 23, 2019
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www.theguardian.com

‘Putin’s patience snapped’: Insiders marvel at Russia’s military purge

Under new defence minister Andrei Belousov, FSB is tackling corruption aggressively with serious implications for Ukraine
Maj Gen Ivan Popov, who commanded the 58th Combined Arms force, said last summer that he had been fired after he brought up problems on the battlefield, including the lack of counter-battery fire, and deaths and injuries the army was suffering from Ukrainian attacks. Popov, who Russian media said stood accused of stealing 100m roubles (£868,569) of metal, was arrested on Tuesday and placed in a pre-detention facility.

Gleb Irisov, a former Russian air force lieutenant who left the military in 2020, said he had spoken with an FSB source before the arrests who told him that the purge in the defence ministry would be prompted mainly by its failures in Ukraine.
"Under Sergei Shoigu, the defence ministry became heavily influenced by his personal network," said Irisov. "From senior commanders to lower staff, key positions were filled with Shoigu's picks – friends or friends of friends. He even created numerous deputy positions specifically for his allies."
Irisov said he regularly discovered substandard equipment in the military, including lightbulbs that melted at supersonic speeds while flying Russia's modern Su-35 air-defence fighter, as well as shoddy trucks and air defence systems unable to shoot down modern drones. He said in part their deficiencies were the result of corruption under Shoigu.

"The overall quality of the military suffered because funds were routinely embezzled," he said. "Military exercises often existed only on paper, as the allocated money was siphoned off."

"It's the dream of any investigator to put a real live deputy minister of defence in prison, it's cool, it's the dream of a lifetime," said one former Kremlin official. "You get new epaulettes for that, a promotion, some kind of award. You can earn a reputation for that."

"The FSB finally got their teeth in the defence ministry and general staff," said Capt John Foreman, the UK's former defence attache to Moscow, who said he believed the arrests could continue after "Putin's patience had finally snapped".

"Shoigu and Gerasimov provided a buffer, but now Putin decided he had to do something," he said. "Shoigu kept the FSB largely away from the ministry throughout his tenure, there were very few arrests. Once the FSB has their teeth in you, who knows how far they will go."


View: https://x.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1795040969198379043
 
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EagleClaw

Member
Dec 31, 2018
11,212
A German army officer has been sentenced to 3.5 years in prison for spying for Russia.
The officer confessed to the court that he had shared sensitive military information with Russia.
According to the Prosecutor the army officer had "almost persistently offered himself to Russia" in order to give the Russian armed forces an advantage.
If the officer had not only revealed official secrets but also state secrets, he would have faced imprisonment for life time.
When he started to spy for Russia the army officer also joined the German far-right Nazi party AfD.

tagesschau (German)