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eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
This will not happen unless Ukraine surrenders. I still think today people forget that Ukraine has the largest army in Europe outside of Russia, and is now heavily equipped with NATO weaponry at the infantry level (Easily over 20,000 NATO anti tank weapons in Ukraine now). Soldier wise, they are one to one with the Russian mobilized forces and are inflicting heavier losses so far. And since Russia has shown a complete failure of combined arms tactics, their superior technology has been not effective as most analysts believed.

What Russia does have going for it is massive amounts of artillery which they can use to shell the defenders and destroy the city sector by sector, but that is hurting civilians more than the defenders in the few cities being shelled so far. However Kyiv is so large and is not encircled, so a full shelling siege is not possible. Instead Russia might try to use military mass to try and take the city center quickly, maybe to try capture the Government, but I'm not sure what they plan to do after that...
even that has issues, it will very quickly become a street by street fight, which heavily favors the defenders.
 

Laver

Banned
Mar 30, 2018
2,654
Kyiv has had two additional weeks to prepare for battle, I hope the streets are full of hedgehogs and rubble to prevent fast encroachment of Russian vehicles. I'd also expect the city to have vastly more military stock than other currently besieged cities. Russians will pay a heavy price for taking the city, if they even manage that.
 

BrokenFiction

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,327
ATL
The US bought a bunch of Mig-29s in the late 90s, wonder what happened with them.

How they found them:

intro-1546041028.jpg
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,030
Also, Kyiv still has significant air defenses operational, so there will be no air support (or it will be limited). Roof top ambushes are going to be a serious problem for any advance and if an advancing column gets pinned in a kill box, not only are they destroyed but make that advance route harder to complete by other forces due to the wreckage.
 

Zip

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,031


Agrees with Study of War assessments too, Russia building towards a big offensive on Kiev in next few days.


With all the successes shared by Ukraine on twitter etc., it's easy to forget that Ukraine is really fighting an uphill battle, and may be overwhelmed still even if they're destroying Russian equipment and troops far faster than Russia is destroying Ukraine's.

Putin/Russia hunkering down to try and stave off the effects of the sanctions as long as possible. Hopefully Ukraine is able to hold out. They definitely want to capture Kyiv and as much of the South as possible. I think once that happens Putin will try to pull back and claim victory, while installing a puppet government.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,438
Seattle
What's the max Launch range of GRADS it's like 25 miles right? If Ukraine can keep the Russians 30-40 miles away then at least the Center will be safe fromGRADS
 

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,030
That artillery will do little more than kill civilians. And it requires constant resupply. Russia hasn't brought nearly the numbers for a proper siege.
And you need to encircle a city to be fully effective, or can have artillery more easily flanked ( could horseshoe them but then you are pulling back some your forces from the city edge)
 

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,104
So did Russia close the gas tap to Europe or not?
If yes, congrats on making sure it is not 2/3 drop next year but making it worse. And I guess Lindner (germany financial minister) will have to eat his words about no more eurobonds for energy / defence.
 

Mentalist

Member
Mar 14, 2019
18,146
So did Russia close the gas tap to Europe or not?
If yes, congrats on making sure it is not 2/3 drop next year but making it worse. And I guess Lindner (germany financial minister) will have to eat his words about no more eurobonds for energy / defence.
They will specify which "materials and products" will be banned from export where over the next 2 days.
 

grmlin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,333
Germany
So did Russia close the gas tap to Europe or not?
If yes, congrats on making sure it is not 2/3 drop next year but making it worse. And I guess Lindner (germany financial minister) will have to eat his words about no more eurobonds for energy / defence.
I'll buy some electrical heaters if they stop exporting gas. That's for sure
 

hom3land

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,616
I understand why this whole dance with the mig 29s has to be so overly convoluted, but it's still funny to see it play out…


It's just laughable. Sending rockets that launch from the ground that destroy Russian planes, tanks, troops, and pilots, are fine.. but provide a plane to destroy and kill Russian assets.. that's too much. I understand.. but at the end of the day, they both provide the same result.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,110
With all these stores and companies announcing their retreat from Russia, how is the situation on the ground right now? Are they already closed? Are IT services and payment services working or not?

So did Russia close the gas tap to Europe or not?
If yes, congrats on making sure it is not 2/3 drop next year but making it worse. And I guess Lindner (germany financial minister) will have to eat his words about no more eurobonds for energy / defence.
Nothing official yet. Would be insane.
 

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,491
FIN
It's just laughable. Sending rockets that launch from the ground that destroy Russian planes, tanks, troops, and pilots, are fine.. but provide a plane to destroy and kill Russian assets.. that's too much. I understand.. but at the end of the day, they both provide the same result.

I imagine it's easier for even Russians to look other way when it's launchers, but when stuff like jets starts to move over they may actually say something.

Yet Turkey has been supplying drones, and Russia hasn't said a word. So who knows.
 

Cat Party

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,473
I've been reading up on US intelligence's assessments as of today, and the big question mark really seems to be domestic pressure on Putin. They don't seem to have any answers as far as what to expect, probably because there is no frame of reference for this. It's basically uncharted territory.

It makes me wonder if the Russian public is still in shock or not. I feel like, once the shock wears off, it will be replaced with anger over the cause of Russia's economic collapse. It's probably wishful thinking, but I just can't see how Putin's half-assed anti-Ukraine propaganda will protect him on this one.
 

Loxley

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,649
I just saw a few tweets about how Poland has decided it will hand over its MIGs to Germany and/or the US for transfer to Ukraine - any truth to that?
 

Primal Sage

Virtually Real
Member
Nov 27, 2017
9,852
A more interesting question is if they join the EU, if Russia demands that they opt out of the mutual defense pact, ala Denmark.

We are actually having a vote on that this June. The government and major opposition parties are recommending that we opt in. They've also already agreed to increase defense spending to 2% of BNP.
 

kcp12304

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,982
According to CNN Business, McDonalds operates 84% of the locations in Russia. Usually it's by a franchise operator in other countries.

www.cnn.com

McDonald's, Starbucks and Coca-Cola leave Russia

McDonald's and Starbucks are shutting their restaurants and cafes in Russia, and Coca-Cola is suspending its operations there in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. PepsiCo is also pulling some products from the country.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
28,105
the Netherlands
I just saw a few tweets about how Poland has decided it will hand over its MIGs to Germany and/or the US for transfer to Ukraine - any truth to that?
Yes, they'll be transferred to the United States' Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
 

Reckheim

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,408
I've been reading up on US intelligence's assessments as of today, and the big question mark really seems to be domestic pressure on Putin. They don't seem to have any answers as far as what to expect, probably because there is no frame of reference for this. It's basically uncharted territory.

It makes me wonder if the Russian public is still in shock or not. I feel like, once the shock wears off, it will be replaced with anger over the cause of Russia's economic collapse. It's probably wishful thinking, but I just can't see how Putin's half-assed anti-Ukraine propaganda will protect him on this one.

it could swing either way, you gotta remember they got the propaganda machine running pretty heavy over there. They either turn against Putin or they turn against the west.
 

Kahhhhyle

Member
Jun 8, 2021
2,187
Question. Since oil is such a big part of why Europe is so dependant on Russia what is to stop the US from expanding their drilling business to fill in the gap? Yeah it would take time to get it all up and running. But the threat alone of being able to freeze Russia out of the global economy for years should count for something no?