I'm sure that one battery will have range to protect *checks notes* Tahiti.
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I'm sure that one battery will have range to protect *checks notes* Tahiti.
Pretty good look at how the foreign aid bill happened
View: https://x.com/alexbward/status/1783925806302974043?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
View: https://x.com/alexbward/status/1783925806302974043?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA
Even the US provides "just" more long-range air defense missiles instead of another battery.
Maybe there are not enough long-range air defense missiles available to keep more air defense batteries in constant operation and no one wants to speak out on that.
That would actually make more sense then just ignoring Ukraines begging for more batteries while pointing out some possible risks.
Beside available stockpiles there doesn't seem to be "much"
...
The company (Raytheon) is producing roughly 20 missiles a month ...
Four NATO countries — Germany, Romania, Spain and the Netherlands — are coming together to buy 1,000 PAC-2 GEM-T missiles and will do a large amount of production in those countries, primarily Germany. ... to reach (a worldwide production total of) 35 missiles a month by the end of 2027...
I guess SAMP-T (Aster) missile production is not even reaching 20 per month.
Maybe there are not enough long-range air defense missiles available to keep more air defense batteries in constant operation and no one wants to speak out on that.
That would actually make more sense then just ignoring Ukraines begging for more batteries while pointing out some possible risks.
Beside available stockpiles there doesn't seem to be "much"
...
The company (Raytheon) is producing roughly 20 missiles a month ...
Four NATO countries — Germany, Romania, Spain and the Netherlands — are coming together to buy 1,000 PAC-2 GEM-T missiles and will do a large amount of production in those countries, primarily Germany. ... to reach (a worldwide production total of) 35 missiles a month by the end of 2027...
I guess SAMP-T (Aster) missile production is not even reaching 20 per month.
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While most events will take place in Ile de France, some will happen all around France:
Are you really trying to tell me that France will position all of its long-range air defense batteries around the Olympic games to be secure against ballistic missiles ?
Türkiye Considers Supplying T-155 Firtina Self-Propelled Howitzers to Ukraine with US Support | Defense News April 2024 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2024 | Archive News year
Türkiye Considers Supplying T-155 Firtina Self-Propelled Howitzers to Ukraine with US Support
View: https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1783942243188908319
View: https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1783918524185928024
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1783918524185928024.html
Thread by @Jonpy99 on Thread Reader App
@Jonpy99: 1/ Updated BMD count. Let's how the Russian airborne IFVs in storage are looking after more than two years of peer warfare. 2/ First, the actual figures. After recounting prewar stocks, @HighMarsed and I fo...…
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View: https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1783935812335292809
Whole summer will but US aid will start hitting the front within the week, and will keep flowing. Should see a much increased response from Ukrainians so hopefully Russian casualties respond in kind.
More videos of the refinery burning, or as the Russian Governor said "minor damage"
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1784046949571707150
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1784046949571707150
Attack may be more widespread then thought:
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1784064764605305036
View: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1784064764605305036
4 Ukranian thermal power plants hit by Russian missiles overnight. Moderate to extreme damage.
View: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1784125060858479092
German lawmakers assail far-right party over alleged China, Russia links following spying arrest
The German government and opposition lawmakers have assailed the far-right Alternative for Germany for its alleged closeness to Russia and China after an assistant to a legislator for the party was arrested on suspicion of spying for Beijing.
apnews.com
Thread by @RALee85 on Thread Reader App
@RALee85: Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all...…
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I just telling you that games will also take place outside of Ile de France and could require more SAMP-T systems than the one you decided should be enough.
Like I said, it's just a guess on my part, informed by a couple of facts:
- SAMP/T systems were used in the past to protect events in France, so it would not be surprising to see them deployed to protect the biggest event happening this year in France.
- Macron is going all-in regarding the Olympic Games, hoping to take advantage of them, which means others French politicians will try to use the situation against him (to, as an example, say that Macron is weakening France security by sending costly systems at a time of heightened tension, etc).
- On the subject of cost, I shared an article by Le Monde a couple of weeks ago showing that funding the 3 billions announced for this year was becoming a funding nightmare (deficit is bigger than thought, bumbling ambition for 2027 by Bruno Le Maire, etc).
Long but important thread by Rob Lee. Long story short: Ukraine will probably lose Chasiv Yar and surrounding territories, but it will cost Russia. Much is to blame on the delayed aid but also due to manpower shortages.
View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783972910333407356
Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/
The PDA package will also provide other critical ammunition like anti-tank mines and Javelin/TOW ATGMs. Recent Russian advances have demonstrated that increased numbers of FPVs cannot replace artillery, mines, and ATGMs. Russia's assault on Vuhledar in 2023 and Ukraine's offensive last summer demonstrated how effective mines can be for defending forces. 4/
Further deliveries of armored vehicles will also be important. Many Ukrainian brigades don't have sufficient armored vehicles, and combat losses often aren't replaced. This leads to higher casualties. Bradleys are very popular, armored humvees will help, and further M113 would be very useful for CASEVAC. 5/
Air defense is another critical Ukrainian need. Russia has resumed its missile campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and UMPK glide bombs, which played a key role in Russia's seizure of Avdiivka, are a serious problem. More recently, Russian Su-25 attack aircraft have been operating closer to the front than normal, which indicates a lack of SHORAD and MANPADS. 6/
The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/
The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine's continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/
Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine's summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/
This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/
Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/
More concerning is that the manpower issue has been known for some time, but has not been fixed. The longer it takes to improve the manpower situation, the less likely it becomes that Ukraine can conduct a offensive in 2025. The new NATO-trained/equipped brigades last summer did not have enough time to train together, and Russian defenses will still be strong. New soldiers/units need to be mobilized to replace current losses and trained for 2025. 12/
At the same time, one of the most important factors in the war last year was that Russia was able to significantly improve its manpower situation, recruiting more than 300,000 volunteers. 13/
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/
Russian forces are also expanding their foothold in Ocheretyne, which threatens Ukrainian positions nearby, and they have advanced into Krasnohrivka and have made recent gains on the Marinka-Novomykhailivka front. 17/
Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities, and Russia faces more favorable terrain once they get past Chasiv Yar, which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance. If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk. This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly. 18/
If Ukraine can stabilize the front and fix the manpower situation in 2024 when Russia has a number of advantages, 2025 could be more favorable because Western production capacity will increase and Russian equipment losses could become a greater issue. If the manpower situation does not improve, then the second half of 2024 will likely be more difficult for Ukraine than the first half. 19/
This bill will be vital, but it needs to be part of a broader long-term strategy for Ukraine. Western countries need to consider how to help Ukraine compensate for Russia's current advantages, including increased deliveries of long-range missiles. 20/
View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783972910333407356
Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/
The PDA package will also provide other critical ammunition like anti-tank mines and Javelin/TOW ATGMs. Recent Russian advances have demonstrated that increased numbers of FPVs cannot replace artillery, mines, and ATGMs. Russia's assault on Vuhledar in 2023 and Ukraine's offensive last summer demonstrated how effective mines can be for defending forces. 4/
Further deliveries of armored vehicles will also be important. Many Ukrainian brigades don't have sufficient armored vehicles, and combat losses often aren't replaced. This leads to higher casualties. Bradleys are very popular, armored humvees will help, and further M113 would be very useful for CASEVAC. 5/
Air defense is another critical Ukrainian need. Russia has resumed its missile campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and UMPK glide bombs, which played a key role in Russia's seizure of Avdiivka, are a serious problem. More recently, Russian Su-25 attack aircraft have been operating closer to the front than normal, which indicates a lack of SHORAD and MANPADS. 6/
The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/
The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine's continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/
Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine's summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/
This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/
Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/
More concerning is that the manpower issue has been known for some time, but has not been fixed. The longer it takes to improve the manpower situation, the less likely it becomes that Ukraine can conduct a offensive in 2025. The new NATO-trained/equipped brigades last summer did not have enough time to train together, and Russian defenses will still be strong. New soldiers/units need to be mobilized to replace current losses and trained for 2025. 12/
At the same time, one of the most important factors in the war last year was that Russia was able to significantly improve its manpower situation, recruiting more than 300,000 volunteers. 13/
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/
Russian forces are also expanding their foothold in Ocheretyne, which threatens Ukrainian positions nearby, and they have advanced into Krasnohrivka and have made recent gains on the Marinka-Novomykhailivka front. 17/
Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities, and Russia faces more favorable terrain once they get past Chasiv Yar, which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance. If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk. This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly. 18/
If Ukraine can stabilize the front and fix the manpower situation in 2024 when Russia has a number of advantages, 2025 could be more favorable because Western production capacity will increase and Russian equipment losses could become a greater issue. If the manpower situation does not improve, then the second half of 2024 will likely be more difficult for Ukraine than the first half. 19/
This bill will be vital, but it needs to be part of a broader long-term strategy for Ukraine. Western countries need to consider how to help Ukraine compensate for Russia's current advantages, including increased deliveries of long-range missiles. 20/
View: https://twitter.com/solonko1648/status/1784132633313657194
Thread by @solonko1648 on Thread Reader App
@solonko1648: "Orlan" is one of the main Russian reconnaissance drones in the war against Ukraine Among scientists and analysts studying changes within the russian army and their weapon systems during the military c...…
threadreaderapp.com
Well, lets hope after the closing ceremony of this big event more French long-range air defense can save some lifes and infrastructure in Ukraine.
They would need to take this quick in my view because hot spots are going to get artillery shells first and this is one of them. Over the next two months, Ukraine is going to see a big uptick in shell availability that is probably going to catch the Russians by surprise since they aren't used to it for the last 6 months.
Due to its height, this area also makes great Javelin firing positions as well so we'll see. Rob has always been too bullish on Russian capability in my view.
I wonder if Russians are generally aware of numbers like this.
Surely even if it's hidden or obfuscated, there must be an awareness among families about the number of men that aren't coming home.
Russia pulls a lot of the men that are sent into Ukraine from very remote locations of Russia. That way people in population centers like Moscow wont pay attention and more importantly outside of those towns and villages no one really knows. There has been some cases here and there of mothers demanding to know where their sons are etc., but nothing bigger hasn't come from those to hit wider awareness of Russians.
A lot of them seem to be russian minorities so i reckon while the local communities know the regime will be quite successful in hiding those deaths from the russian public.
So I assume the US saying Ukraine shouldn't target refineries was just talk to appear responsible?
It's not just remote areas, they also target ethnic and religious minorities for conscription. The point being, "It's happening to them and not to me."
It was not the US in general saying it. It was the White House, and it was to mitigate rising gas prices on the global market, which means higher prices domestically, which may mean voter displeasure during an election year.
Two attempted ethnic cleansings / genocides at the same time. Putin is by far the most evil fucker of our lifetime. I feel like most people don't really understand that that is going on here.
Belgium announced it will deliver the first f-16's this year. It was normally scheduled to start next year when the f35's arrived.
It also pledged 200million anti air.
This is important because we habe elections in june, and we are traditionally very slow in forming new governments due to the complexity of our country and no new budgets are approved in the period in between.
It also pledged 200million anti air.
This is important because we habe elections in june, and we are traditionally very slow in forming new governments due to the complexity of our country and no new budgets are approved in the period in between.
A bit OT, but didn't Belgium not have a government for a non-insignificant amount of time recently ?
