Sea of Thieves is MS's most successful new IP this gen (2 Million+ Players and more stats)

[DontRaff]

you suppose that the creation of a social experience and the creation of an experience where there are lots unique of things to do within that social space are somehow at odds with one another or nearly impossible to create. Or at best, that we should give Rare a pass here for their $60, very shallow game that has a good social foundation...just because it has said foundation.

No. I disagree strongly and I believe that the game will need more than 5 non-threatening enemy types to give it the kind of longevity that I think people wanted and hoped for from the game. There is no excuse for launching a full-priced game that has such limited things to do and so few ways in which to do them. There is no excuse for this game to have ZERO risk involved in virtually anything you do. The worst thing that can happen here is someone stealing your cargo. Literally nothing else matters. There is no sense of value. No sense of risk. No sense of loss. Everything just respawns. Coupled with demonstrably poor combat in all circumstances (from dumb AI to disappointing weapons to laughable PvP outside of role play), it's just a sandbox game that has no shortage of potential and a very visible inability to meet any of that potential for now. And so people will call it out.

Characterizing complaints as people wanting single-player experiences fails to understand the nature of the concerns. People want things to do with friends that are fun, dynamic, that have risk, that provide enough challenge to actually demand coordination among said friends. Things that result in a story to tell, not just about the fun you had with your friends, but the challenge that was overcome to reach it. And of course, people want the kind of customization you'd expect for a game of this sort. I would have expected no less than several hundred possible ship configurations such that it becomes unlikely that you'll ever see a ship quite like yours as you gain more gold and prestige. Things like that.

Until then, the game will remain short of what I would consider mostly main stream expectations or hopes for the product. Until it at least reaches a form that approximates that, it will be a $60 early access game.

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Great post. If Sea of Thieves was multiplatform, I doubt so many people would be defending a $60 game with so little content, regardless of the social aspect. I can play Rocket League, Fortnite, Destiny, GTA and plenty of other multiplayer games and have fun with my friends. That isn't the issue. It's the game part of the game that people have issue with.

 

[nib95]

2 million unique players is an impressive stat but I think retention is going to be key here. Especially since we have no idea how many of these players are using game pass free trial or subscription to try the game out. In that context the active player numbers in the coming months will help indicate whether or not they truly have a success on their hands or not. I think these initial figures are very encouraging though. Its clear, at the very least, that a lot of people are very interested in the game and its concept.



So do we have any idea what QB's sales figures were?

Edit:


Thanks for the sales figures. So 200k at retail after 2 months. We are sure this is the best selling new IP for MS up until now? What about Cuphead or Ori? I figured those would've sold more than that surely. Its so frustrating how little information we have available and how little we will likely have for SoT. It'd be nice to know how successful the game is both now and long term but knowing that just seems incredibly unlikely given the level of information we have for their SW nowadays.

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I don't think Microsoft own Cuphead, Ryse or Sunset Overdrive IP's, so presumably it's between Quantum Break, Ori and the Blind Forest, ReCore and Super Lucky's Tale.

 

[nib95]

Now that I think about it, the PR could potentially mean that Sea of Thieves didn't sell as well Cuphead, otherwise the PR could have read along the lines of "fastest selling Xbox exclusive new IP of this generation" instead of "fastest-selling first-party new IP of this generation". Bare in mind, Microsoft PR is not including GamesPass downloads in the fastest sales summary, so the sales stuff thus far is for direct sales only.

For the record, Cuphead sold 1 million copies in the first 2 weeks of its release and 2 million copies after the first 3 months.

 

[5Twist]

Thanks for the sales figures. So 200k at retail after 2 months. We are sure this is the best selling new IP for MS up until now? What about Cuphead or Ori? I figured those would've sold more than that surely. Its so frustrating how little information we have available and how little we will likely have for SoT. It'd be nice to know how successful the game is both now and long term but knowing that just seems incredibly unlikely given the level of information we have for their SW nowadays.

Nobody is saying its a bad thing its just not telling the whole story here since that figure includes people that either didn't pay anything to try the game or paid for a single month of a subscription to play it. Nor does it tell us how many of those players remained actively playing the game after they initially tried it. Retention and MAU are going to be the key stats here to show whether or not this game is a success for them. Clearly there are a lot of people interested in the concept but if those people don't keep playing (or paying for a subscription to Gamespass) then its not really accomplishing what MS wants it to accomplish for them. If they were saying there were 2 million concurrent users then that would be an indisputable success for them but thats not what they are saying. They are saying 2 million unique users and unique users is a stat that doesn't tell us much of anything about actual retention which is one of the biggest factors for this game's success. Pointing to these figures and declaring the game a success is sort of missing the point.

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You make a very good point with the retention aspect. There was another game by the name of Evolve that shipped 2.5 million copies in its first 2 months. The president and the CEO of Take-Two made big statements including the game having an incredibly successful launch and the IP being part of their "permanent franchises". Pretty impressive, right? Except for the part where player levels plummeted and Turtle Rock no longer supports the game.

 

[RexNovis]

I don't think Microsoft own Cuphead, Ryse or Sunset Overdrive IP's, so presumably it's between Quantum Break, Ori and the Blind Forest, ReCore and Super Lucky's Tale.

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Now that I think about it, the PR could potentially mean that Sea of Thieves didn't sell as well Cuphead, otherwise the PR could have read along the lines of "fastest selling Xbox exclusive new IP of this generation" instead of "fastest-selling first-party new IP of this generation". Bare in mind, Microsoft PR is not including GamesPass in the fastest sales summary, so the sales stuff thus far is direct sales only.

For the record, Cuphead sold 1 million copies in the first 2 weeks and 2 million copies after 3 months.

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I was under the impression the MS regards all their partnered IP as "first party" which would include Sunset Overdrive and Cuphead. So if those figures for cuphead are accurate then that would mean it likely sold more than 1 million copies its first two weeks. That would certainly be an impressive figure if true. Any chance someone could reach out on twitter to clarify whether or not Cuphead is included in that statement?

You make a very good point with the retention aspect. There was another game by the name of Evolve that shipped 2.5 million copies in its first 2 months. The president and the CEO of Take-Two made big statements including the game having an incredibly successful launch and the IP being part of their "permanent franchises". Pretty impressive, right? Except for the part where player levels plummeted and Turtle Rock no longer supports the game.

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Evolve was an especially bad case of retention. I doubt Sea of Thieves will have that drastic of a drop off. But yes its a good example as to why retention is a crucial figure for these sorts of games especially since unlike Evolve people have a low (or non existent in the case of the free trial) barrier of entry to try the game out initially.

 

[5Twist]

I was under the impression the MS regards all their partnered IP as "first party" which would include Sunset Overdrive and Cuphead. So if those figures for cuphead are accurate then that would mean it likely sold more than 1 million copies its first two weeks. That would certainly be an impressive figure if true. Any chance someone could reach out on twitter to clarify whether or not Cuphead is included in that statement?

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According to Wikipedia and looking at the digital code cover on Amazon, Cuphead is published by Studio MDHR. That effectively makes Cuphead not a 1st party game.

 

[zedox]

I see it. I work for a subscription-based SaaS company, one that transitioned from a traditional sales model, so I'm well versed with the health metrics and learned that they pretty much apply universally to all subscription-based models. It all comes down to finding a path to profit based on subscriber acquisition, retention, and monetization (getting customers to pay more in value-add services or premium features over the standard monthly subscription fee).

The potential for MS seems huge if they can strike the right balance in terms of an evenly distributed release schedule througout the year to keep bringing in new folks, regularly add compelling content to their games to keep usage high, and offer things in-game that many people want to pay extra for over the monthly subscription fee (i.e. I expect microtransactions built into pretty much everything). With such a low barrier to entry and the option to cancel at any time (i.e. high value, low risk for the consumer), plus their aim to launch a device-agnostic streaming service, they could grow into the tens of millions of game subscribers throughout the coming years.

They do, however, really need to get their act together on a larger selection of and variety in exclusive content plus make the Microsoft Store likeable if they want to grow in the PC space, which seem to be two huge hurdles. Both are solveable, but Microsoft seems to move so damn slow in both of these areas. I'm curious to see how things evolve over the next few years, especially if Amazon and Google join the party with their own services because they have big warchests and already have fairly big reach with their own respective platforms and devices. MS needs to get their act together before either one of those competitors decides to disrupt the market with their own offering.

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100% agree.

 

[Deleted member 26104]

A little spin doesn't hurt your narrative either, because you omit the entire PC platform which is included in the stats.

And it doesn't hurt to misread the thread from people debating the levels of SoT/Gamepass performance into something where apparently people argue that 2m players (combo of sales + pass) are just flat out bad.

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I didn't omit or spin anything lol. Windows store and the Xbox are both the unpopular platform and console.

As for your second part, people in here are clearly and flat out saying that 2 million, especially with gamesharing and gamepass, is bad.

Great post. If Sea of Thieves was multiplatform, I doubt so many people would be defending a $60 game with so little content, regardless of the social aspect. I can play Rocket League, Fortnite, Destiny, GTA and plenty of other multiplayer games and have fun with my friends. That isn't the issue. It's the game part of the game that people have issue with.

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if the game was multiplatform it wouldn't be getting attacked and concern trolled as much as it is though.

 

[RexNovis]

According to Wikipedia and looking at the digital code cover on Amazon, Cuphead is published by Studio MDHR. That effectively makes Cuphead not a 1st party game.

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Ah well ok then. But Ori was published by MS right? Surely it sold more than QB did? Do we have any figures for Ori?

 

[nib95]

I was under the impression the MS regards all their partnered IP as "first party" which would include Sunset Overdrive and Cuphead. So if those figures for cuphead are accurate then that would mean it likely sold more than 1 million copies its first two weeks. That would certainly be an impressive figure if true. Any chance someone could reach out on twitter to clarify whether or not Cuphead is included in that statement?



Evolve was an especially bad case of retention. I doubt Sea of Thieves will have that drastic of a drop off. But yes its a good example as to why retention is a crucial figure for these sorts of games especially since unlike Evolve people have a low (or non existent in the case of the free trial) barrier of entry to try the game out initially.

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According to their own PR, Quantum Break was the last such record holder, which is why I don't think Cuphead is included in their first party summary. I mean, StudioMDHR is not Microsoft owned, plus Cuphead was published by StudioMDHR and according to the devs the studio still owns the IP, so either way I can't see how it could be regarded as first party.

 

[Andrew Lucas]

And then they say there's no bias, of course no one here is clearly bothered by the success of a game most won't even get. How to be a gamer 101.

 

[Soony Xbone Uhh]

Now that I think about it, the PR could potentially mean that Sea of Thieves didn't sell as well Cuphead, otherwise the PR could have read along the lines of "fastest selling Xbox exclusive new IP of this generation" instead of "fastest-selling first-party new IP of this generation". Bare in mind, Microsoft PR is not including GamesPass downloads in the fastest sales summary, so the sales stuff thus far is for direct sales only.

For the record, Cuphead sold 1 million copies in the first 2 weeks of its release and 2 million copies after the first 3 months.

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Microsoft is not the publisher of Cuphead. Not even on Xbox One.

Totally different from games like Ryse or Sunset Overdrive.
Microsoft does not even know how much Cuphead sold on PC and they don't have the PR authority about Cuphead sales numbers.

 

[5Twist]

Ah well ok then. But Ori was published by MS right? Surely it sold more than QB did? Do we have any figures for Ori?

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Ori is indeed published by MS. I think Ori sold more than QB LTD, but QB had the faster sales rate at for its first few weeks in the market.

 

[Andrew Lucas]

Oh, I know they don't care but since they're bragging about it, they should back it up with factual information and numbers in regards to those playing via Game Pass and those that actually purchased the game.

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Would that make you sleep better?

 

[nib95]

Ah well ok then. But Ori was published by MS right? Surely it sold more than QB did? Do we have any figures for Ori?

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Not entirely sure.

I could be wrong but I don't think Ori and the Blind Forest charted the month it was released in NPD, which is a damn shame because imo it is the best Xbox One exclusive behind Forza Horizon 3. Granted it still sold enough to be profitable in the first week.

Edit: Just reminded that Ori was a digital only title, which would explain its NPD omission.

 

[Soony Xbone Uhh]

Ori and the Blind Forest charted the month it was released in NPD

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It was a digital only release when NPD did not cover digital sales yet...

 

[RexNovis]

Ori is indeed published by MS. I think Ori sold more than QB LTD, but QB had the faster sales rate at for its first few weeks in the market.

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Not entirely sure.

I could be wrong but I don't think Ori and the Blind Forest charted the month it was released in NPD, which is a damn shame because imo it is the best Xbox One exclusive behind Forza Horizon 3. Granted it still sold enough to be profitable in the first week.

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I think it was a digital only release so it wouldn't have been a factor in NPD rankings at the time. I take it then that we don't really have any info in regards to how well Ori sold in its debut month then? I would be shocked if it didn't sell better than QB managed in that time. It had far more positive (well deserved) WOM surrounding its release and as you say it was supposedly profitable within its first week of sales.

 

[nib95]

I think it was a digital only release so it wouldn't have been a factor in NPD rankings at the time. I take it then that we don't really have any info in regards to how well Ori sold in its debut month then? I would be shocked if it didn't sell better than QB managed in that time. It had far more positive (well deserved) WOM surrounding its release and as you say it was supposedly profitable within its first week of sales.

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That makes sense.

I just checked Steam sales and it seems to have done pretty damn well with around 1.4m owners. I don't know how that translates directly to sales mind. I too would have assumed that Ori sold better than Quantum Break given the limited sales data we have got QB, so I don't know why it isn't considered Microsoft PR's best new first party IP in sales.

When was the PR about QB being their fastest selling new IP last reiterated? Was it before or after Ori's release?

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It was after.

 

[RexNovis]

That makes sense.

I just checked Steam sales and it seems to have done pretty damn well with around 1.4m owners. I don't know how that translates directly to sales mind. I too would have assumed that Ori sold better than QB given the limited sales data we have got QB, so I don't know why it isn't considered Microsoft PR's best new first party IP in sales.

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Was it a simultaneous steam release? I can't recall if it was a delayed release or not. [strike]Also, when was the PR about QB being their fastest selling new IP last reiterated? Was it before or after Ori's release? If it was before I think it'd be a safe assumption that Ori would've dethroned it.[/strike] Nevermind I see you've answered this already

 

[nib95]

Was it a simultaneous steam release? I can't recall if it was a delayed release or not. Also, when was the PR about QB being their fastest selling new IP last reiterated? Was it before or after Ori's release? If it was before I think it'd be a safe assumption that Ori would've dethroned it.

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QB PR came after. QB was released in 2016, Ori was released in 2015.

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2016/04/14/39364/

Quantum Break Becomes the Biggest-Selling New Microsoft Studios IP for Xbox One

Last week, on April 5, 2016, we were proud to announce that Quantum Break had launched worldwide to critical acclaim. Today, we are excited to share that Quantum Break was the #1 best-selling Xbox game around the world last week, and is now officially the biggest-selling new Microsoft Studios published IP this generation. In addition, last week Quantum Break was the #1 most played new game on Xbox, worldwide.

The level of excitement we have seen from our fans around the world for Quantum Break has been humbling. We want to thank the community for their support for helping us achieve this international success.

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[BioDigital Jazzman]

Ori probably sold more over its lifetime, but we don't know the time period of the criteria. It could be the first day or week etc.

 

[RexNovis]

QB PR came after. QB was released in 2016, Ori was released in 2015.

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2016/04/14/39364/

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Ori probably sold more over its lifetime, but we don't know the time period of the criteria. It could be the first day or week etc.

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It was after.

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Oh. Wow well ok then. I think its safe to assume that whatever criteria they used for the previous fastest selling would also apply here. I guess that confirms Ori didn't outsell QB's debut then. So QB's debut sales would've been the bar to beat for this. How much did QB sell in its debut month in the UK? You mentioned earlier it was around 200k for its first two months of NPD so WW we'd be looking at something around 400k or so most likely?

 

[nib95]

Oh. Wow well ok then. I think its safe to assume that whatever criteria they used for the previous fastest selling would also apply here. I guess that confirms Ori didn't outsell QB's debut then. So QB's debut sales would've been the bar to beat for this. How much did QB sell in its debut month in the UK? You mentioned earlier it was around 200k for its first two months of NPD so WW we'd be looking at something around 400k or so most likely?

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Again, there's not a lot of information but I believe QB sold 28k copies in its first week in the UK, and the estimate for the entire first month in the UK was between 40k and 45k.

 

[EasyCompany]

I don't think Microsoft own Cuphead, Ryse or Sunset Overdrive IP's, so presumably it's between Quantum Break, Ori and the Blind Forest, ReCore and Super Lucky's Tale.

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+ Screamride

 

[Cladyclad]

You are definitely in the minority. Most ppl that want prime aren't canceling to try and get more free trials. Lol, what a way to save a few bucks!

And there are more games than sot on game pass, shocking I know!

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People abuse the hell out of prime for that 20% off.

 

[RexNovis]

Again, there's not a lot of information but I believe QB sold 28k copies in its first week in the UK, and the estimate for the entire first month in the UK was between 40k and 45k.

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So from the information we have it'd be safe to say Sea of Thieves Sold 400k < 1500k then in its first two weeks. Thats a rather large range. I hope we get some more concrete sales info to narrow it down a bit.

 

[cakely]

And then they say there's no bias, of course no one here is clearly bothered by the success of a game most won't even get. How to be a gamer 101.

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People are discussing Quantum Break, Ori and Cuphead sales and comparing them with Sea of Thieves. It's legitimate sales discussion.

 

[RexNovis]

If we assume SoT sold at least 400k copies in its first week (which seems like the rough estimate for the minimum) then that means it made between $13M - $24M in revenue for MS (using Ubisoft's profit breakdowns of 55% physical and since MS owns the store 100% digital).

Rare is a studio of ~100 people and they have been working on the game for about 4 years. Using the industry average of ~$10k each month per employee that'd give us a rough estimate of 48M to develop the game.

Given these figures the game would need to sell ~880k copies to break even. Granted this doesn't count profits form game pass subscriptions and I'm not entirely certain how one would go about factoring those in here but assuming this game kept users subscribed for the remainder of the year that'd be $90 per subscriber for the year which would mean they'd need about 530k year long subscribers to break even.

I think its a safe conclusion to make that between games pass subs and sales SoT is on its way to at the very least being a profitable game for MS and Rare which is indeed good news.

Feel free to correct my math if I've made a mistake somewhere though.

 

[xxracerxx]

If we assume SoT sold at least 400k copies in its first week (which seems like the rough estimate for the minimum)

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Wait. Where are you getting 400K?

 

[RexNovis]

Wait. Where are you getting 400K?

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Its the minimum estimate I came up with after discussing sales of the previous best selling new IP QB. Granted its just an estimate but i think its a reasonable one for the WW sales.

 

[nib95]

If we assume SoT sold at least 400k copies in its first week (which seems like the rough estimate for the minimum) then that means it made between $13M - $24M in revenue for MS (using Ubisoft's profit breakdowns of 55% physical and since MS owns the store 100% digital).

Rare is a studio of ~100 people and they have been working on the game for about 4 years. Using the industry average of ~$10k each month per employee that'd give us a rough estimate of 48M to develop the game.

Given these figures the game would need to sell ~880k copies to break even. Granted this doesn't count profits form game pass subscriptions and I'm not entirely certain how one would go about factoring those in here but assuming this game kept users subscribed for the remainder of the year that'd be $90 per subscriber for the year which would mean they'd need about 530k year long subscribers to break even.

I think its a safe conclusion to make that between games pass subs and sales SoT is on its way to at the very least being a profitable game for MS and Rare which is indeed good news.

Feel free to correct my math if I've made a mistake somewhere though.

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Rare has closer to 200 employees according to their PR/past data. Even on LinkedIn they're showing as having 216 employees. Based on their financials visa Company House in the UK they have over 100 full time staff, but I don't believe this includes contracters, outsourcing, third party or freelance help and so on, all of which could likely explain the 200 employee figure that is or has been previously touted.

That's not to say all their staff are or have always been working on Sea of Thieves mind.

 

[Psamtik]

Sea of Thieves seems like it'd be incredibly fun with a full group. I'm really quite jealous of the players who are having that experience.

 

[Deleted member 19924]

-

 

[xxracerxx]

Does this include the Gamepass buys?

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No. Also it isn't 2M sales.

 

[Lappe]

Does this include the Gamepass buys?

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Buying trough gamepass, or using gamepass to play?

The 2 million does include players playing with gamepass, and the most successful IP does not.

No. Also it isn't 2M sales.

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Every chance you get right? Taking a stab I mean.

 

[Sydle]

Sea of Thieves seems like it'd be incredibly fun with a full group. I'm really quite jealous of the players who are having that experience.

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Look for the Discord link in the OP of the official thread if you want to coordinate and play with Era folks.

 

[billysea]

What other new IP Microsoft has this gen?

Sunset Overdrive, and?

 

[xxracerxx]

Every chance you get right? Taking a stab I mean.

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Read the thread, the confusion was real.

edit: I just realized you thought I was attacking the game by answering the dude. Again, read the thread.

 

[RexNovis]

Rare has closer to 200 employees according to their PR/past data. Even on LinkedIn they're showing as having 216 employees. Based on their financials visa Company House in the UK they have over 100 full time staff, but I don't believe this includes contracters, outsourcing, third party or freelance help and so on, all of which could likely explain the 200 employee figure that is or has been previously touted.

That's not to say all their staff are or have always been working on Sea of Thieves mind.

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Yea I figured theyd have more outsourced and non salary staff but also figures that the 100 staff probably weren't solely working on SoT the whole 4 years so it'd even out. But you're saying they have more than 100 full time staff? That is news to me and would certainly change the math around how much the game cost to develop. Any estimates on the number of full time staff?

 

[Sydle]

Yea I figured theyd have more outsourced and non salary staff but also figures that the 100 staff probably weren't solely working on SoT the whole 4 years so it'd even out. But you're saying they have more than 100 full time staff? That is news to me and would certainly change the math around how much the game cost to develop. Any estimates on the number of full time staff?

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In an interview with Craig Duncan a while back he said 100-120 people were on SoT. It probably grew a bit since that interview and it seems they're still hiring for it.

For Rare Replay I think it was said there was a small team of less than 20 working on it up until its release in mid 2015. Not sure if dissolved and reassigned to SoT, or something else.

Plus they have an incubation team led by studio veteran Louise O'Connor (joined in '99).

EDIT: Seems Eurogamer is saying most of the studio's 200 employees were working on SoT as of Feb this year.

Rare is made up of some 200 staff, and pretty much all of them are working on Sea of Thieves right now.

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Link

 

[DrDeckard]

I honestly don't think I've ever seen this kind of analysis and deconstruction of a simple statement for any other company. MS really do have the power to send people into a frenzy and invest hours that they could be playing games on their favourite systems spouting all kinds of strange speculation.


"2 million players in a week" simple as that

 

[MrTired]

Yea I figured theyd have more outsourced and non salary staff but also figures that the 100 staff probably weren't solely working on SoT the whole 4 years so it'd even out. But you're saying they have more than 100 full time staff? That is news to me and would certainly change the math around how much the game cost to develop. Any estimates on the number of full time staff?

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Sea of thieves UK sales were just below 23k, Quantum Breaks were between 27-30k.

 

[Deleted member 20297]

Sea of thieves UK sales were just below 23k, Quantum Breaks were between 27-30k.

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Ha, waking up and seeing the thread didn't change much in ten hours.

 

[RexNovis]

In an interview with Craig Duncan a while back he said 100-120 people were on SoT. It probably grew a bit since that interview and it seems they're still hiring for it.

For Rare Replay I think it was said there was a small team of less than 20 working on it up until its release in mid 2015. Not sure if dissolved and reassigned to SoT, or something else.

Plus they have an incubation team led by studio veteran Louise O'Connor (joined in '99).

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Ok so then if we change the 100 employees to 120 the total estimated cost of development goes to ~$58M. Which would mean they would need to sell roughly 1.2M copies of the game or 644k year long game pass subscribers to break even. But again these are all based off average industry pay rates and estimates. Certainly by no means an exact science.

 

[RexNovis]

Sea of thieves UK sales were just below 23k, Quantum Breaks were between 27-30k.

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That's retail only though. Given the online nature of the game it's not at all unexpected to see it skew much higher towards digital than a single player game. Also I'm not sure how that observation applies to the post you quoted? I'm assuming you quoted the wrong post.

Edit: apologies double post

 

[ZhugeEX]

I think a lot of people seem to forget that having users via Gamepass is just as important, if not more important for Microsoft, when it comes to driving the success of future game distribution methods.

The fact that 2 million players have already engaged in the game is a huge positive on that front.

 

[nib95]

I honestly don't think I've ever seen this kind of analysis and deconstruction of a simple statement for any other company. MS really do have the power to send people into a frenzy and invest hours that they could be playing games on their favourite systems spouting all kinds of strange speculation.


"2 million players in a week" simple as that

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The analysis me and Rex were doing wasn't to determine player numbers, which as you stated is black and white, instead it was to see if we could figure out a rough range for potential sales of the game, coupled with predictions on development costs (him more than me). Obviously these are very loose and completely unscientific workings, but it's a sales thread, what else ya gonna do? Lol.

 

[MrTired]

Ha, waking up and seeing the thread didn't change much in ten hours.

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Did you get triggered by me giving correct, factual information.smh

That's retail only though. Given the online nature of the game it's not at all unexpected to see it skew much higher towards digital than a single player game. Also I'm not sure how that observation applies to the post you quoted? I'm assuming you quoted the wrong post.

Edit: apologies double post

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https://www.resetera.com/threads/uk...-2017-now-with-digital-numbers-updated.26877/
You can use this to make an estimate.
Edit: Yeah quoted the wrong post suppose to quote the when you were asking for the numbers for UK performance.

 

[RexNovis]

I think a lot of people seem to forget that having users via Gamepass is just as important, if not more important for Microsoft, when it comes to driving the success of future game distribution methods.

The fact that 2 million players have already engaged in the game is a huge positive on that front.

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That's true but they want long term subscribers. That's why retention figures I think will be the bigger key to determining whether this is a succes for MS as far game pass is concerned.

.

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just saw your update about 200 employees for the final year. So assuming an average of 120 for the first 3 and 200 for the final that's out the cost of development at ~$68M. That would mean roughly 1.8 million copies sold or 755k year long game pass subs to break even.

Also important to point out this doesn't factor in advertising costs at all which would likely be a substantial sum.

 

[Sydle]

Ok so then if we change the 100 employees to 120 the total estimated cost of development goes to ~$58M. Which would mean they would need to sell roughly 1.2M copies of the game or 644k year long game pass subscribers to break even. But again these are all based off average industry pay rates and estimates. Certainly by no means an exact science.

Click to shrink...

See my edit. Recent Eurogamer interview revealed that most of Rare's 200 are now on SoT.

When I look at LinkedIn data it shows they've grown from around 160 in mid 2016 and are at 200 now.

I think microtransactions are coming with the update in June, so with that plus the various ways to get the game they're probably on a path towards profitability assuming they have some content to keep people interested and drive more subs, MTX, and full-game purchases.