Stock Market Era |OT3| Nobody expects the Spanish Inflation!
- Thread starter Sheepinator
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vix down to 18, that's been my sell signal the last few months and it has treated me well
but i'm feeling greedy now 🤔
but i'm feeling greedy now 🤔
Interesting news out of europe this morning
View: https://twitter.com/ben_moll/status/1613829159335206912?s=20&t=ctQKa5ddc2qztx3dThnFKQ
Both germany and the UK haven't gotten the predicted economic recession and even grew last year.
Seems all the doomsday scenarios were wrong
View: https://twitter.com/ben_moll/status/1613829159335206912?s=20&t=ctQKa5ddc2qztx3dThnFKQ
Both germany and the UK haven't gotten the predicted economic recession and even grew last year.
Seems all the doomsday scenarios were wrong
my heating bill just came in with the new natural gas rates, 204$ almost double from december and 2021
such economic progress and growth 🙌
such economic progress and growth 🙌
They do but it's a different kind of inflation.
Inflation in europe is in large parts because of the war in ukraine and its effects on energy and food prices while a lot of US inflation comes from labor shortages and wage spirals.
Ah, right! The threat of a wage price spiral is more dangerous than what Europe is experiencing with energy/food prices. I haven't kept up to date with the situation over there.
Well, missed the AMZN and AAPL lows I guess. But I was too spooked.
Put more into I Bonds for this calendar year. Gonna let that ride for a bit.
Put more into I Bonds for this calendar year. Gonna let that ride for a bit.
Definitely also serious issues with labor shortages in Europe.
And for that reason, the threat of a wage spiral. Even if it is mostly a threat so far.
As for Germany, I wonder if them doing a major stimulus package, to counter the energy prices, played a big role in avoiding negative GDP.
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Damn, AMKR at its highest level since *checks notes* 2000. $31.
Anyone here still holding it? I know some did in the past, I only picked it up (and heard about it in the first place) because of a few people in this thread.
I chickened out at ~27 a while ago :(
Anyone here still holding it? I know some did in the past, I only picked it up (and heard about it in the first place) because of a few people in this thread.
I chickened out at ~27 a while ago :(
Yea originally heard about the stock thanks to this thread and did some research. Bought in and I've been pretty happy with it for the past few years.
Don't worry everyone. When the US House fails to come to an agreement on the debt ceiling and we default there will be plenty of red for all of us.
Instead of this stupid green stuff? Who likes green? Yuck.
Instead of this stupid green stuff? Who likes green? Yuck.
I just figured how Apple will manage to prevent any app from delivering ads without going through its own ads service on any of its devices, and how it will be justified and embraced.
That depends on how soon the Fed is going to cut rates, right? Based on what Burry said about inflation peaking in "this cycle", he thinks there could be another inflation spike if the Fed is too slow to react and needs to cut rates drastically to pull us out of a recession. The Fed said they aren't going to cut rates in 2023 though and is going to cut in 2024 instead. Well, that's what they hinted at anyway - it could always change.
If rates aren't going to be cut how would that cause another inflation spike when things are already expensive?
If I'm not mistaken, cutting rates = Fed turning on the money printer again, like how they cut rates to near 0% in 2020. This is what might cause an inflation spike if the Fed reacts too slowly. Nothing is "too expensive" if the Fed can bail us out with more stimulus, right? It'll all even out~ 😅
That or there will be pain for many.
Inflation is trending down but the Fed is adamant on raising rates just a little more and keeping them high for some time. They don't want to cut too early because they want to go HARD on inflation and not make the mistake of letting it creep back up. So either the Fed realizes that inflation really is coming down hard enough that they ease up a bit or they continue full steam ahead with their plans of quashing inflation once and for all and possibly causing additional pain such that stimulus is needed (and possibly another inflation spike because of said stimulus). Correct me if I'm wrong but I think this is the soft vs hard landing scenario.
A user posted about this interesting article back in October: https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606
From my understanding of the article, relatively high inflation is OK if GDP keeps growing. Though the Fed is trying quash inflation, government investment will pump certain industries (looking at you IRA 😎) in the "short term". So going long on renewable energy or whatever the government is pumping is a good move (not financial advice). I took some notes on this article when I read it but I haven't revisited them in awhile so maybe I'm misunderstanding something.
- Inflation is structural in nature, not cyclical
- Economies moving away from free markets to where government plays significant role in allocation of capital (free market = supply and demand)
- Shift happening because debt levels too high
- Power to control creation of money shift from central banks to governments
- State guarantees is basically enable government to influence where economy goes as they can tell banks where to grant guaranteed loans
- Examples: investments to combat climate change or reducing inequality
- Governments have been "bailing out" corporates in other countries with these state guarantees
- State guarantees is basically enable government to influence where economy goes as they can tell banks where to grant guaranteed loans
- Power to control creation of money shift from central banks to governments
- Engineering higher nominal GDP through higher structural level of inflation is proven way to get rid of high levels of debt
- CPI settling into range between 4-6%
- There's a disconnect between monetary policy (central banks) and fiscal policy (government)
- Monetary policy trying to hit the brakes but fiscal policy keeps sending relief aid
- Eventually, the government wins
- Monetary policy trying to hit the brakes but fiscal policy keeps sending relief aid
- There is a level of bond yields that is unacceptable for the US because it would hurt the economy too much so it has to pull back at some point (enter financial repression)
- Financial repression is an economic term that refers to governments indirectly borrowing from industry to pay off public debts.
- Interest rates need to be held below level of inflation
- This affects savers due to lower rates of return as yields need to be below level of inflation
- Interest rates need to be held below level of inflation
- Financial repression is an economic term that refers to governments indirectly borrowing from industry to pay off public debts.
- How things will play out
- Government take control of creation of broad money by issuing credit guarantees and can steer investments where they want
- Government aims for consistently high growth rate of money (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broad-money.asp) but not too high
- Domestic investor base also has to be forced to buy government bonds, regardless of yield, in order to prevent yields from rising above rate of inflation.
- This is in place today as insurance companies and pension funds have no choice but to buy bonds (this is where savers get hurt)
- This is all happening now because bank credit is still growing
- Banks keep on lending, regardless of risk
- Due to government guarantees and being too big to fail, banks will keep lending and nominal GDP will keep growing
- This is why we won't see economic contraction
- Due to government guarantees and being too big to fail, banks will keep lending and nominal GDP will keep growing
- Banks keep on lending, regardless of risk
- Central banks will have a very difficult time fighting the government due to elected government officials carrying out the will of the people
- Money flows where the people want it to, including fighting climate change and inequality
- Many of the things associated with financial repression will be popular
- Savers won't like it due to lower yields but debtors and young people will
- Wealth moves from savers to debtors
- Homeshoring/friendshoring boom would mean lots of capital investment into reindustrialization of our own economies
- Production moves back home or to friendly countries
- Savers won't like it due to lower yields but debtors and young people will
- Endgame is stagflation of the 1970s
- We are currently not experiencing stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment)
- We don't have high unemployment right now
- Stagflation happens after years of badly misallocated capital
- Happens when government interferes for too long in allocation of capital
- UK did this in 50s and 60s by allocating capital into coal mining, automobile production, and the Concorde
- It turns out there was no future in any of the above which resulted in high unemployment
- Not there by a long shot
- Need to see boom in capital investment and high growth in nominal GDP
- After high unemployment comes from misallocated capital results in high misery index, people will vote to change the system again
- People voted for Thatcher and Reagan in 1979 and 1980
- Debt to GDP already low at that point
- Free market policies introduced
- People voted for Thatcher and Reagan in 1979 and 1980
- After high unemployment comes from misallocated capital results in high misery index, people will vote to change the system again
- Need to see boom in capital investment and high growth in nominal GDP
- To avoid stagflation, government needs to not interfere with banking system, reinstate private sector credit risk, and hand back control of growth of money to central banks
- For new investors
- Avoid government bonds
- Problems we have will be solved by massive investment
- energy, climate change, defense, inequality, dependence on production from China
- Capex boom could last long time
- Companies geared to renaissance of capital spending will do well
- Gold will do well once people realize inflation won't come back down to pre-2020 levels
- Best bet is to invest in jurisdictions where you plan to spend your retirement
- Don't want to get stuck in China
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I certainly hope things get better this year I would hatee a recession this year.
Unless the fed is really gonna go out of their way and force a recession we might actually avoid it. If you look at the micro economic data there isn't much of a recession except maybe in some housing markets.
OP
OP
Ryan Cohen, of GME fame, looks to be trying to engineer a meme rally with BABA.
Jan 16 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Ryan Cohen has built a stake in China's Alibaba Group worth hundreds of millions of dollars and is pushing the e-commerce giant to increase and speed up share buybacks, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
In his communications, Cohen told Alibaba he thought the company could reach double-digit sales growth and nearly 20% free cashflow growth over the coming five years, according to the sources.
Cohen felt the company's shares were undervalued at the time, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the investment is private.
Alibaba in November raised the size of its share repurchase program to $40 billion, increasing it by $15 billion, and said it would extend the time frame for the program through the end of March, 2025.
Cohen has told Alibaba executives that more can be done, suggesting the total buyback program could be raised to $60 billion, the people familiar with his communications said.
The people said that Cohen is eager to have a collaborative, long-term relationship with Alibaba and that he has praised management's capabilities.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-investor-ryan-cohen-builds-013317204.html
Jan 16 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Ryan Cohen has built a stake in China's Alibaba Group worth hundreds of millions of dollars and is pushing the e-commerce giant to increase and speed up share buybacks, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
In his communications, Cohen told Alibaba he thought the company could reach double-digit sales growth and nearly 20% free cashflow growth over the coming five years, according to the sources.
Cohen felt the company's shares were undervalued at the time, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the investment is private.
Alibaba in November raised the size of its share repurchase program to $40 billion, increasing it by $15 billion, and said it would extend the time frame for the program through the end of March, 2025.
Cohen has told Alibaba executives that more can be done, suggesting the total buyback program could be raised to $60 billion, the people familiar with his communications said.
The people said that Cohen is eager to have a collaborative, long-term relationship with Alibaba and that he has praised management's capabilities.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-investor-ryan-cohen-builds-013317204.html
interesting! I was thinking there would be more pain ahead. we might see light at the end of the tunnel my March.
It really depends on what the central banks will do. There's been talk that the ECB will slow down their rate hikes, if the fed does the same it will be good for the economy. If they continue to raise at the pace their now there will be more pain ahead.
Also China is still a very big risk.
That is also true. Do you think if China has pressure and ECB is hawkish would cause a depression in the US?
China is kind of the wildcard because no one really knows what is going on there and what will happen but i could see both the US and europe get pulled down by it if things go bad.
Don't think we'll ever reach depression territory but a light recession could always happen considering how fragile things are at the moment.
Not sure but looks like them missing bad on earnings is what dragged the market down near close?
As a Big 4 auditor once upon a time, seriously fuck Goldman Sachs. By a massive margin the biggest bunch of rude, entitled cunts in existence in the insurance and investment management sector.
Anything they do does not reflect the industry as a whole. Let them burn.
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