Stock Market Watch |OT| I've stocked up on market watches, what now?
- Thread starter Mr.Awesome
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This. This sitation is unprecidented and I think the reality has totally not set in. When you are shutting down major cities for the next few weeks, this is major. And if this needs to continue through fall, this is going to get worse.
Nah, actual scientists will push back.
Nobody wants that kind of body count on their conscious.
If I had seen this tweet at the time I would have known to not invest yet :(
I actually did see that tweet at the time and that made me happy I had a lot of my cash on the sidelines.
I sold all of my investments in VFIAX when it hit $235 a week ago. Seems like by the time I'm ready to put money back into the market, I will have saved myself a lot in losses. It felt terrible because I had bought in at $300 a month before.
I had no choice but to pull out because I needed the cash on hand given the uncertainty of job security and the virus spreading.
I had no choice but to pull out because I needed the cash on hand given the uncertainty of job security and the virus spreading.
I'm like 95% certain this is actually going to happen and there's going to be severe social and economic pressure to get it as soon as you can. I also believe this has a 50%-60% chance of going poorly.
I feel like Fauci getting fired would be a sign of that. Until then, I'm confident that he's preventing the very stupidest possible decisions from going through.
The whole admin is a revolving door. I'm sure people will show Trump the facepalm pic enough times to get his tiny trigger finger itchy. Trump himself is a snakeoil man. He will get a lot of people killed.
Monday likely to be bad unless Trump pumps Sunday night somehow. Government stimulus could be that pump.
www.cnbc.com
Yeah this doesn't help though the market didn't move much on the Illinois shut down news. It seemed to move more after this:
Clearing firm Ronin Capital unable to meet capital requirements at CME: Sources
The move forced the CME to step in and invoke its emergency protocols to auction off the portfolios.
www.cnbc.com
If the Dow gets down around 16,000, odds are good it will slide around or below 15,000, too. Let's hope it doesn't go that far.
as far as I know tonight is the deadline for a government stimulus bill to be presented but it won't be voted on until monday in the senate.
What is even the point of a 401k anymore. Just put the bullet in my head once I can't work anymore
Dope. Tomorrow's play:
Loaded up on SPY calls deep OTM. Tomorrow is gonna open red, but at the end there's gonna be a short squeeze resulting from all the put options exercising at the same time, driving up SPY's price. At that time, I'm gonna quickly sell those calls and all-in on puts, because Monday is guaranteed to be blood red.
Time to make some M A D money, oh baby.
I lost 17k attempting this same thing. Lol
Well similar. 3/23 236
Praying for a pop Monday
Okay so - my job today, which has a retail arm although we're a tech outfit, announced they were laying off/furloughing about 70% of the retail staff, and I honestly expect this to go up in the coming week, and ultimately bleed over into tech.
I keep taking a look into some of the local businesses around me (i'm a small business owner myself - although my area is all in tech/game dev) and I keep seeing just how much the local economy/small businesses are being hammered. Honestly, i'm seeing stores close earlier than 6PM cause they just can't afford it, and most of the people I know are gonna likely be closing stores most days until this blows over.
The last few weeks have felt like years. And everyone keeps saying - its going to get worse. And normally, I was basically leaning towards this winding up leaning towards the average-case scenario in terms of damage and recovery time, versus some of the worst case scenarios. Now, barring a miracle treatment showing up in the next 2-3 weeks, this is simply gonna be social reality until mid-summer, maybe longer. And theres simply no way the economy doesn't continue to just crater. Its not gonna begin to recover until some form of normalcy comes up, and I really don't think thats possible given the current conditions.
I keep taking a look into some of the local businesses around me (i'm a small business owner myself - although my area is all in tech/game dev) and I keep seeing just how much the local economy/small businesses are being hammered. Honestly, i'm seeing stores close earlier than 6PM cause they just can't afford it, and most of the people I know are gonna likely be closing stores most days until this blows over.
The last few weeks have felt like years. And everyone keeps saying - its going to get worse. And normally, I was basically leaning towards this winding up leaning towards the average-case scenario in terms of damage and recovery time, versus some of the worst case scenarios. Now, barring a miracle treatment showing up in the next 2-3 weeks, this is simply gonna be social reality until mid-summer, maybe longer. And theres simply no way the economy doesn't continue to just crater. Its not gonna begin to recover until some form of normalcy comes up, and I really don't think thats possible given the current conditions.
You shouldn't be worried then. Look forward to going through two or three more crisis when your 401k is much bigger!
Unfortunately, this has known for a very long time now. Cheap debt and promises of growth are only great when the rug is pulled from underneath.
It has been here for some time.
Also DIS had to issue $6B in bonds because it's cash position sucks.
textbooks in the year 3000 will remember it as the bigly depression of the early 2000s.
oof. You expecting good news over the weekend?
You might get a decent chance to cut your losses... but theta will be ticking away. I would make peace with the fact that you're going to lose money.
shrug, the last two mondays we've had pops and we've had zero good news over the weekend
Wiat, you actually held on to your calls over the weekend? Guh. Why didnt you hedge and buy some puts?
I think it will drop monday, but I also thought it would rise today.
i've got puts as well but those have an expiry that is further out... as for the 3/23 spy calls I really wracked my brain on if I should sell for the final 30 minutes but I held them. I feel like they won't be able to let it slide drastically on monday (I feel like = I hope) and with a little pop i'll be itm (and profitable with being within range)
we'll see
send thoughts and prayers and toilet paper
Is now a good time to start getting some stocks? Been trying to figure a good time to jump in lol.
There's no "perfect" moment. Stocks are likely to go down more before this is all over, but then again maybe a miracle cure is discovered out of the blue and the market surges back to 30K. If you invest now, you'll likely see some volatility and your investment value may fall, but if you are willing to wait ( and I mean for years and years), you'll probably be happy you bought in instead of being afraid and missing the opportunity altogether.
Yeah I dont know what people are expecting. The US is not doing nearly enough to contain this. China's expert visit Italy and politely said they're fucking idiots for allowing people to roam as they want
Don't get me wrong, I think we're absolutely fucked. We've got systematic collapse painted on the walls.
However, we won't be and haven't gone down in a straight line, more of a slinky going down the stairs.
Does any know the corporate debt issue enough to comment on it? Been reading some and it sounds scary as hell and somewhat similar to the subprime crisis in 2008 with how risky debt is repackaged into securities and sold. What if corona causes all the companies with this debt to fail? Does the whole thing come apart like 2008 or is it different?
Basically from what I'm understanding is that many businesses are surviving on cash flow and all the easy credit right now because of the near zero interest. Even the bad ones. So it won't take much of a push to make it all crash down.
Every recession/depression has this pattern of investors putting money in risky investments and then they start believing in their own shit. Then it all comes crashing down. Identifying that bubble is key but it's hard to do without hindsight.
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