Just a reminder, Tom knows nothing. When even MS and AB were taken completely by surprise on the first rejection, that's your sign no one has inside access.
knowing when CMA is going to drop something is different than knowing the outcome. (knowing and releasing the outcome outside of the process would be illegal)
the release of information wasn't a surprise, the result was.
I mean yeah, we all know it's coming soon. The CMA kinda provided the timeframe to the CAT judge. Unless I'm remembering it wrong.
It doesn't require any inside knowledge to predict we'll hear something this week, based on the timelines idas has discussed.
Yep, the longer it goes, the more applicable "it'll happen soon" is.
Is it though? Nothing about this process has been normal so there was always a chance we got to August 29th with nothing. Tom saying something is coming leans towards MS starting to put out some word because their counsel would obviously be aware of the situation and what's coming.
No, given what we know is happening, there's no realistic chance we got to 29 August and heard nothing.
Just saying, if he said that two weeks ago I'd be inclined to think that yeah he maybe knows something. To say it now seems like, "Well, duh."
At this point, I don't know how you make any definitive statement with what the CMA is doing. People thought last Monday/Tuesday was the deadline to allow for feedback on a provisional decision and time to review that before actually releasing the final order but that didn't actually happen.
What's interesting here is that we have no idea what MS has proposed in term of a revised merger (other than it must be about cloud) and whether CMA will find that provisionally acceptable.
Prediction time for a new week:
I maintain an ~80% chance of a favourable provisional response from CMA this week that deems the revised proposal a new RMS and thereby a new (and expedited) phase 1 investigation (which will be a bit of a fudge because they'll clearly build off the foundations of the investigations under the old RMS).
Obviously, like any good lawyer (well, average lawyer lol) I'm covering my bases here. But my point is that there's a non-trivial chance this revised proposal isn't sufficient for CMA. I don't expect that to happen, but I won't be terribly surprised if it does.
Prediction time for a new week:
I maintain an ~80% chance of a favourable provisional response from CMA this week that deems the revised proposal a new RMS and thereby a new (and expedited) phase 1 investigation (which will be a bit of a fudge because they'll clearly build off the foundations of the investigations under the old RMS).
Obviously, like any good lawyer (well, average lawyer lol) I'm covering my bases here. But my point is that there's a non-trivial chance this revised proposal isn't sufficient for CMA. I don't expect that to happen, but I won't be terribly surprised if it does.
The answer here is that they'll likely deem it a new RMS and thereby the final order deadline will be moot. Either way there's no way we wouldn't hear anything.
I appreciate Tom's tweet. I don't tend to read every post here so if I scroll and see the tweet I kinda get a quick look at what's possibly coming.
I am honestly still skeptical the situation around the world, political pressure and lobbying had no effect on the CMA and them going back to negotiatie.
I truly think if it were up to the CMA they would have stuck to their decision to block no matter what (like the FTC).
Even if that's the route they're going, it could just have easily be announced on the 28th that they abandoned the original deal and are in phase 1 of a new one. There's nothing special about "this week" that would have required them to announce anything.
I didn't say there was anything special about this week. I said we wouldn't get to 29 August without hearing anything.
I think we're basically agreeing here :)
keighley will have the cma come out on the show and tell us
MS resume CAT proceedings, possibly get it remitted, and then likely end up with CMA making the same decision to block after curing whatever defects the CAT identified.
Just out of curiosity, what were thoughts on a percentage chance the CMA would block the deal the first time around? That seemed to shock most everyone considering what the situation was at the time no?
I want to wake up tomorrow and hear this is done, the CMA is accepting the existing merger, then hear that this CoD is coming to GP day 1 at Gamescom, then hear that Starfield is releasing 1 week early, then hear that Sony and Xbox have entered an agreement that exclusivity is a thing of the past, and all first party titles from both will be available on GP and PS+, then hear that Command and Conquer Renegade is being rebooted under a Blizzard and Bungie co-development.
Also if you want a new Renegade there's a really good fan game coming set during Tiberium Sun.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj-Db8s1FiM
Also if you want a new Renegade there's a really good fan game coming set during Tiberium Sun.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cj-Db8s1FiM
Thank you I will play this
CMA clears Broadcom’s deal to buy VMware
The CMA has cleared Broadcom’s $69 billion purchase of VMware following an in-depth Phase 2 investigation.
If I was a pessimistic person then I would say that note was added for a negative reason.
I'd say it's accurate though. CMA didn't investigate ABK and Microsoft. They decided to block the deal, out the gate. They've been working to justify that decision for the last 20 months.CMA clears Broadcom’s deal to buy VMware
The CMA has cleared Broadcom’s $69 billion purchase of VMware following an in-depth Phase 2 investigation.www.gov.uk
If I was a pessimistic person then I would say that note was added for a negative reason.
which note?CMA clears Broadcom’s deal to buy VMware
The CMA has cleared Broadcom’s $69 billion purchase of VMware following an in-depth Phase 2 investigation.
If I was a pessimistic person then I would say that note was added for a negative reason.
I don't think they drag this beyond their new deadline, do you?
Throw in a remake of Ghost Recon and Ghost Recon: Island Thunder for modern consoles/PC with crossplay enabled and you've got yourself a deal (we both concuss ourselves until we think this all happened).
I don't know who you mean by "they". But I was simply replying to a question about what would happen if CMA blocks.
No worries I just meant I'd have trouble imagining MS/ABK extending yet again if the CMA still lands against them and they have to take additional time to navigate a workaround or see if they want to appeal the traditional route. I get this is all unprecedented and so it's all guesswork. I suppose I can stop posting until we hear what happens over the next 8 days or so.
CMA clears Broadcom’s deal to buy VMware
The CMA has cleared Broadcom’s $69 billion purchase of VMware following an in-depth Phase 2 investigation.
If I was a pessimistic person then I would say that note was added for a negative reason.
Looks like news of this acquisition broke around May 2022.
All good. I could see MS and ABK going through the CAT process and seeing how that concluded. They'll have done a lot of prep for that already.
I think if the CMA lands against the deal, MSFT and ABK would come to terms for another extension, if needed, to get through the CAT process. I don't see them walking away until a final and unappealable decision against them, except in the event that they can't agree on terms for an extension. I do think that if MSFT wants to lock ATVI into more time and fully exclude the possibility of ATVI considering other offers, they'll need to give something to get that extension. I think MSFT will be willing to do that, and ATVI will not have unduly burdensome demands. I still think there's likely to be a deal here. I think the CMA really don't want to defend their position in front of the CAT, and MSFT/ATVI really don't want to go through a full re-review by the CMA, and all the time that could take.
How pissed do you reckon MS are that the Crystal Dynamics sale happened whilst this was still tied up?..