The summary of the first report (and most recent one)
from Equity Report is here.
This one is from December 14th 2022:
- The sources are two UK antitrust lawyers following the case for their clients.
- One of the lawyers says that he was aware that the CMA
"had received a significant number of complaints", although he could not confirm the names of the companies involved.
- Both lawyers thought that the agreements with Nintendo and Steam for COD wouldn't be enough for the CMA because historically the CMA has not been supportive of behavioural remedies.
- One of the lawyers thought that there was a chance
"higher than 50%" of the deal being blocked by the CMA. He also said that the EC and CMA had been most likely cooperating and that whatever happens the decision would be similar.
- Both lawyers thought that MS could appease regulators by agreeing to licensing ABK's games on FRAND terms (Fair, Reasonable and Non-Discriminatory), but that such an agreement would be commercially unattractive for MS and it's difficult to monitor.
This one is from December 7th 2022:
- The sources are two Chinese antitrust partners advising local and international gaming companies.
- Both thought that the deal would not raise significant concerns in China.
- MS has a "pretty good" relationship with China, something that should help. At the same time, any political influence could be ruled out for the case.
- One of them thought that Tencent is big enough to counterbalance any reduction in competition that the deal would lead to. The other one thought that Tencent will still be the market leader after the deal, so it doesn't have any impact on their position.
- One of them thought that the transaction had not attracted much interest from market players in China given that he would usually receive several calls from his clients to discuss high profile cases and he hadn't received any call about MS/ABK.
This one is from January 26th 2023, and only indirectly related:
- The source is a lawyer working for the merging parties in this case (Broadcom/VMware).
- The communication channels between the EC and CMA have not been as open as they were before Brexit, but there is some level of cooperation on high profile cases.
- The ABK case, like the Broadcom/VMware or the Booking/Etravel, are mainly about vertical foreclosure concerns. These are complex cases that sometimes can be solved through the in-depth review and where the EC is more willing to accept behavioural remedies.
PS: The Booking/Etraveli case was approved without remedies by the CMA during Phase 1 in September 2022.