The Wilson Lootboxes - a story about EA

[RexNovis]

Wow. That was an incredibly well researched and well spoken dissection. Immediate subscription in YouTube.

The revelation that these modern gameplay impacting lootboxes are all tied to Wilson makes the image of him as some Bond villain that much more apt. Incredible.

 

[Deleted member 249]

I'm legitimately surprised so many people on this board are saying they didn't know about FUT. It's the biggest scam in gaming. My rooomate in senior year of college spent over $100 on FUT in a month.
$100. In a month. After buying the $60 game.

 

[Derrick01]

That part when he outright debunks the myth of "Games are getting more expensive to make hence lootboxes", it turned out it was all about greed and revenue.

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This part was always obvious to me. I've been saying you could make games cost $100 and we would still have all of the problems we have now because it's not about the cost of games, publishers just can't resist the potential of earning a billion dollars a year through this shit. Once they found out that it could happen that door is never closing again they're going to try and chase it forever.

 

[The Omega Man]

not aiming this specifically at you, and I'm sure I;m going to get warned for this but:
Are you people really this fucking stupid?

EAs overall development costs have gone down.
But so have their overall release count of games.

                           Overall development costs
Cost per title   =  ------------------------------------
                           Number of titles released

OH, COSTS HAVE GONE DOWN SINCE 2009?
GUESS GAMES ARE CHEAPER TO MAKE NOW

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In my case personally I've never said they are cheaper to make, I did say "less expensive" thanks to as you point out, they are making less games and they might have been becoming more efficient at budgeting.
With that said, the take away is the same, the atrocious amount of revenue that Lootboxes have brought them is why they are here.

 

[Deleted member 21]

Interesting video. Weird that he showed 1313 as Visceral Star Wars project (which looked like this); also, I don't think I would call Visceral Studios "one of the great development studios of our time" considering their recent output.

I'd also argue that Overwatch might not as big as FIFA UT but its implementation of lootboxes isn't "hidden" in a separate mode but part of the core game which caused a lot of studio - including EA - to be more upfront about this stuff

Wilson is a cunt, you can tell just by looking at him.

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Let's be adults in this thread

 

[wapplew]

The video would be better if author don't put lootbox blame into one person or company.
Also Ultimate team let you trade your cards in the market place, you can buy what you want with in game credit.
Hell, you can sell cards for real money like Diablo legendary if you want.

 

[StallionDan]

Yes, even people on this forum were squabbling about Overwatch making it 'popular' or 'mainstream' (or defending the IP), hell, even people claiming Valve was first to deflect from the Overwatch criticisms. Video debunks all those notions, and people just do not realize how big FIFA actually is... $800 million a year big. Almost a billion.

A billion, goodness.

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FIFA been making loads from UT for a long time, well before Overwatch, yet it only since Overwatch other games have been including them in mass.

Unlike UT loot boxes, Overwatch is for the core game.

While you could call 'Wilson' lootboxes pay to win, you could call 'Overwatch' lootboxes core game.

Most lootboxes now in games are a combination of both pay to win and being part of the core game.

 

[gela94]

I think it could also mean they've already gotten a lot of people addicted to these things. Its not that some people don't care, but when FUT becomes your digital crack addiction....these things will happen to a company's bottom line.

I wonder if anyone has ever done any serious research into what percentage of people who would identify as gamers suffer from various addictions and have addictive personalities.

I know that I do. In years past I became addicted to various MMOs. It started with Everquest and then jumped to World of Warcraft. It helped to destroy my first marriage. Wasn't the only factor but it was a big contributor. I learned about myself that I cannot play games that have no definitive ending. I can't do the never ending carrot on a stick because I become addicted to it.

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Oh sorry to hear that, hope you got better! :)
I guess you're right don't wanna know how many families got into some kind of debt because of stuff like that.
I worked in a callcenter for some time for an cellphone provider and we got some call where the parents got a bill of some thousands € because of some lootboxes in some cellphone games, so it's a very good thing that goverments finally pay attention.

 

[Deleted member 21858]

Awesome video. Yeah, fuck Ultimate Team. Shitty ass mode... I used to love the NHL series before they introduced it and abandoned the franchise, not giving it any improvements in the gameplay department and making the season mode completely lackluster.

 

[Strider]

I'm legitimately surprised so many people on this board are saying they didn't know about FUT. It's the biggest scam in gaming. My rooomate in senior year of college spent over $100 on FUT in a month.
$100. In a month. After buying the $60 game.

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In general sports games are seemingly able to get away with far more than what other genres can... Which is a real shame.

For example what Take Two is doing with the NBA2k MyCareer mode deserves every bit the insane backlash that BF2 is getting... It's grindy as hell, you can pay your way to a higher rating,etc ... They even locked you from previewing cosmetic changes to your character in hopes you mess up using your currency so you spend some more to correct it... It is/was gross as hell.

 

[We_care_a_lot]

I mean, the idea that loot boxes were popularized by overwatch isn't true at all. I was bitching about them in Call of Duty long before overwatch came along.

 

[Duxxy3]

Pausing the video for a second.

He makes a good point that EA's current value is built up so high because of these loot boxes. If the US and Europe actually do determine that loot boxes are gambling, EA will come crashing down. Not a small amount. A full out crash of the publisher. They have cut out all of the "fat" from the company to concentrate on the loot box business practice. Killed off multiple IP's and development studios.

Activision and Ubisoft can easily survive the loss of loot boxes. They make enormous amount just on games, season passes and regular dlc. They both make a lot of games. Both make new IP's. EA has cut everything but the core.

 

[AtomicShroom]

Wilson is a cunt, you can tell just by looking at him.

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I don't know what it is, but there's these kinds of people where just one glance at their face triggers in me an intense desire to punch it as hard as I possibly can. He's one of those people.

 

[rakkadakka]

Interesting video but like everything around this topic he gets some stuff wrong and some stuff right.

Appealing to Visceral being a huge studio and the game it was working on a slam dunk made me roll my eyes.

 

[Wayfaerer]

He didn't mention GTA V once, but I assume the success of GTA Online Shark Cards is also big reason why publishers are so eager to put microtransactions in their games.

 

[Lord Brady]

Wasn't it Fifa Ultimate Team the reason behind so many Xbox 360 accounts being stolen?

 

[NaDannMaGoGo]

It's interesting how EA's revenue would suffer tremendously if governments were to crack down on loot boxes hard, whereas e.g. Blizzard could easily remove lootboxes from Overwatch and be perfectly fine with their several, very healthy franchises.

That being said, even if EA were forced to remove loot boxes, with the FUT userbase apparently being used to spending so god damn much on microtransactions, the franchise might still remain super-profitable even with 'regular' microtransactions. Though a huge decrease should certainly happen with the addictive gambling aspect of it taken away.

 

[Karu]

Some good points that were not part of discussion beforehand, but then completely derails it with his "predictions".

 

['3y Kingdom]

Interesting video. Weird that he showed 1313 as Visceral Star Wars project (which looked like this); also, I don't think I would call Visceral Studios "one of the great development studios of our time" considering their recent output.

I'd also argue that Overwatch might not as big as FIFA UT but its implementation of lootboxes isn't "hidden" in a separate mode but part of the core game which caused a lot of studio - including EA - to be more upfront about this stuff

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Yep. Blizzard should in no way be exonerated for its role making loot boxes a core part of many AAA productions.

 

[Mitth'raw'nuruodo]

Wow, what a great video.

 

[Keasar]

Seeing that this system of lootboxes have existed in sports games for so long without causing any ruckus, and the moment EA implemented it in a FPS or racing game (but mostly a Star Wars game) a shitstorm descends upon them.

I'm afraid it does kinda bring up some of those negative sport stereotypes in my head...

 

[red731]

This was fucking amazing.

 

[Deleted member 888]

Wasn't it Fifa Ultimate Team the reason behind so many Xbox 360 accounts being stolen?

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It was the go to cash out game as the currency was worth decent real money. But yes, it was the hackers go to choice for money laundering.

Lots of gamers showed they couldn't care less about other peoples stolen accounts by flocking to buy FIFA currency on Ebay/trading websites.

 

[Mass Effect]

Watched it earlier. It was actually very informative. I didn't even know about the history behind Ultimate Team and the connections with Andrew Wilson.

And I'm so glad he brought up the comparison to trading cards. Like he said, yeah, there are some similarities, but trading cards are tangible items that can be bought/traded/sold/collected. In most video games, items from lootboxes you can do none of those things. Some people can't seem to understand this.

I think, though, on some points he's a bit wrong:
- lootboxes will NOT be removed from most games. They may be reworked, but they may change depending on...
- regulation. I doubt lootboxes will be regulated as gambling, but there's a good chance they will see some form of regulation. And will also probably bring about a bit of self-regulation as well.
- Wilson isn't going anywhere. Not unless EA's business has been severely impacted, which we won't know for a while (at least a year or more).

Now, IF either the US or the EU (not just a couple of European countries or US states) straight up say "they're gambling" and regulates them as such, then that would be massive. But it's very unlikely that happens.

Overall, it's a great video and definitely worth watching.

 

[Kaako]

I can't wait till more world governments start cracking down hard on EA and every other predatory corporation out there designing gambling simulators for children. Fuck every single one of them; sucking the creative blood of their talents dry for pure profits.

 

[RexNovis]

not aiming this specifically at you, and I'm sure I;m going to get warned for this but:
Are you people really this fucking stupid?

EAs overall development costs have gone down.
But so have their overall release count of games.

                           Overall development costs
Cost per title   =  ------------------------------------
                           Number of titles released

OH, COSTS HAVE GONE DOWN SINCE 2009?
GUESS GAMES ARE CHEAPER TO MAKE NOW

Click to shrink...

This is not ok. You can make an argument or point without insulting everyone else in the process. Doing so does nothing to further your goals or ingratiate you to those with whom you are debating. Be respectful of other members if you wish to be treated with respect in return.

To answer your argirment you are right the number of games EA released in 2009 was in the realm of 25 titles across consoles and handhelds whereas the number of games they released this year was less than 10. That's a large difference. However the consolidation of investment around these huge projects was a conscious decision from them to try to capture more of the market and eliminate mid tier development (of which many of those 25+ titles would be considered to be by the way) from competing publishers from the equation there by consolidating profits around their games and IP as time went on.

So yes budgets are very much higher than in 2009 for development at these massive publishers but it's not because they can't avoid it it's becaise it was part of the plan to begin with. If you look at what some of the existing mid tier developers have been able to put out on a fraction do the budget (Hellblade, Forza Horizon, From Software Games, Nioh, Neir Automata, etc) it becomes very clear that these budgets aren't as necessary for development as these publishers make them out to be. They are only necessary to ensure and perpetuate their stranglehold on the mainstream consciousness. And yes I'm including the absolutely astronomical advertising campaigns in those costs because they are a part of that agenda too.

 

[Yoshi]

Wasn't it Fifa Ultimate Team the reason behind so many Xbox 360 accounts being stolen?

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Yes. Though I think that the change from tradable cards in ultimate team to thing slocked directly to your account was one that upped the pressure to spend a lot of money, while lowering the value of scams. Which is - besides the fact, that it merely influences a sports game - why I think Fifa Ultimate Team was not met with such a strong backfire.

 

[Alienous]

Mentioning development costs going down, but profits going up, seems disingenuous.

EA are spending more money making less games (which indicates that development costs are increasing). Loot boxes help to mitigate the risk of any of those individual products failing to meet expectations. They have less eggs in the basket, so the significance of any one of them breaking is greater than before.

 

[Lost]

i think this video deserves his own thread. He seemed to put many effort in his research (im mean skillUp, not Wilson)

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What a glorious & well researched video.

I think everyone should watch this.

 

[NaDannMaGoGo]

I don't understand the Overwatch focus from so many people, either. There have been so many games beforehand and in my opinion loot boxes were already plenty popular before we even heard about Overwatch that the idea to blame their popularity in fairly large margins on Overwatch doesn't make sense to me.

I myself was playing Dota 2 for years and that was the most played Steam title for ages, until PUBG took that crown recently, and had a very well known and successful loot box model. The 'The International' prize-pool made record numbers every year and that got increased via compendium sales and in particular people buying lots of levels to gain more loot boxes which contained 'Immortal' quality items and among those were super and ultra rare ones, usually worth hundreds of dollars.

That doesn't make Overwatch's loot boxes benevolent or anything, they're still loot boxes, but to blame that comparatively late title for the popularity? Eh.

 

[Daitokuji]

What I took away from that video is: SHORT EA STOCK

 

[Nausetsunrise]

I'm curious about the kinds of people who spend money on all this stuff. First,I think it's got to be wealthy people who just aren't negatively affected by throwing money at something that has no real value to it. Then,I realize that the people most addicted to gambling are those of lower income levels. I see this at my job. Some of the people who complain about having no money are the same ones who have no qualms about spending $10.00, $20.00, or even $30.00 on scratch tickets almost daily, and usually winning nothing.

It just blows my mind.

 

[Snefer]

Would be a better video if he didnt skip over facts to fit his narrative, like the fact that development costs HAVE skyrocketed. They make fewer but more expensive games.

 

[diablogg]

Some good points that were not part of discussion beforehand, but then completely derails it with his "predictions".

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While I didn't agree with some of his predictions I don't think it derails his video at all.

 

[Atram]

Would be a better video if he didnt skip over facts to fit his narrative, like the fact that development costs HAVE skyrocketed. They make fewer but more expensive games.

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What rly skyrocketed are Marketing expanses. For sure development has raised too (shorter Dev cycles and bigger games Need victims and sacrifices). But Marketing & Advertising costs has lost their relation to reality

 

[spam musubi]

re: cost of making games

http://askagamedev.tumblr.com/post/167200111597/a-youtuber-named-tarmack-recently-made-a-video

Let's say that the total development + marketing costs in 2010 was $1 billion. Let's say that there were 30 games released in 2010. That would be an average spend of $33 million per game. Now consider 2016. The total cost has dropped from $1 billion to $750 million (-25% drop). The number of games released has also dropped to 10 releases in the year. That's an average spend of $75 million per game - more than doubling in cost. When Tarmack posits the question "Have they really gone up thatmuch?" the answer is "YES".

The number of publishers has increased, but the number of titles the average publisher releases has decreased to about half what it was in 2010.

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Here's what he's missing - revenue is not evenly distributed over games published. Take a look at this graph - it's from EEDAR's video game data presentation. The top earning 50% of games earns something like 98% of the revenue. The top 10% of games earn around 60-70% of the revenue. The cream of the crop, the best 2%, pull in around 30% of all revenue. If you've got those hits, congratulations! Your investors are happy! You can even lean into them and get more, because [people love the games and want more of the them]. And if not, then it sucks because the investors will drop your stock and you've got to cut costs to try to keep them from bailing. The above chart shows why video games a very hit-driven industry. This is why publishers have decreased the number of games they are funding. If you know that 50% of games won't make any money, you might as well not fund quite so many of them. By focusing additional resources after launch on the games that do well, publishers can keep things much more stable. Post-launch content is far less risky than new projects because you can cancel those plans if the game doesn't do well, and you can put more into it if it performs above expectations, while an entire new game is just inherently riskier and more expensive to develop. Microtransactions and post-launch support mitigate our risk while giving players more of the games they want.

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What rly skyrocketed are Marketing expanses. For sure development has raised too (shorter Dev cycles and bigger games Need victims and sacrifices). But Marketing & Advertising costs has lost their relation to reality

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Have they? We saw this year with how Bethesda spent less effort marketing their games and they underperformed. Seems like marketing still might matter.

 

[NaDannMaGoGo]

And I'm so glad he brought up the comparison to trading cards. Like he said, yeah, there are some similarities, but trading cards are tangible items that can be bought/traded/sold/collected. In most video games, items from lootboxes you can do none of those things. Some people can't seem to understand this.

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That was the part I disagree with the most.

Most trading cards are worth jack shit. Yes, they are physical cards and maybe you can burn them to heat your place (not really but you get my gist) but they don't really have much value. If I were to buy a Yu-Gi-Oh booster pack I wouldn't be able to sell all the common cards, which is the vast majority of what you get, for any worthwhile number.

Additionally, loot boxes with market places exist, like CS:GO, TF2 and in part still Dota 2. You can even use third party sites instead of 100% relying on Steam market itself.

Lastly, the video's author was pointing out how the publishers are in complete control of that market as they control rarity etc. That's no different for actual TCGs. How do you create a card worth hundreds of dollars? Well, you only need an already popular game and then make it rare and maybe good, too. Done.

I just don't see this supposedly great value every physically existing card has.

 

[Illusion]

Extremely good video. Would love to continue seeing similar work!

 

[Kaako]

I'm curious about the kinds of people who spend money on all this stuff. First,I think it's got to be wealthy people who just aren't negatively affected by throwing money at something that has no real value to it. Then,I realize that the people most addicted to gambling are those of lower income levels. I see this at my job. Some of the people who complain about having no money are the same ones who have no qualms about spending $10.00, $20.00, or even $30.00 on scratch tickets almost daily, and usually winning nothing.

It just blows my mind.

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Exactly. The victims are not all the mythical whales we've been hearing about. They are mostly made up of kids in a middle to low income household.

 

[Snefer]

What rly skyrocketed are Marketing expanses. For sure development has raised too (shorter Dev cycles and bigger games Need victims and sacrifices). But Marketing & Advertising costs has lost their relation to reality

Click to shrink...

Dev cycles are longer than ever, and teams are bigger than ever. Its not marketing that skyrocketed, its development cost. This is indisputable.

 

[808s & Villainy]

Given that a key difference between loot boxes/digital card packs is the lack of real value, would these issues be solved/remedied if unused assets could be converted back to digital currency/real money? Would that even be legal, or would that push it full over into gambling territory, or whatever TCGs are considered? I guess then you'd run into the issue of the game companies being in control over the value. It'd only really work if the market was completely player driven and the value of digital assets were flexible and actually in response to supply/demand, but then you'd run into the issue of there being no actual fixed "supply". Hmm

 

[Atram]

re: cost of making games

http://askagamedev.tumblr.com/post/167200111597/a-youtuber-named-tarmack-recently-made-a-video

Have they? We saw this year with how Bethesda spent less effort marketing their games and they underperformed. Seems like marketing still might matter.

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For sure Marketing matters (most of the time) but reading your last post seems you understand my POV

 

[Pitchfork]

Wow! I genuinely thought Acti/blizzard were making a mint off of loot boxes?

 

[ItIsOkBro]

I seem to recall people being ecstatic when the ultimate team stuff made its way into the other sports titles...

 

[jelly]

Fascinating and well researched. Quite interesting how EA are at risk from being too deep in lootboxes, if regulation does come in or users turn against it even before then Wilson will have to answer. The history of were it actually started was worth watching too, it wasn't TF2 or Overwatch or Mobile Games, it was EA. His Overwatch point makes sense, it's for everyone and accessible and he has revenue to prove it doesn't make a lot of money from lootboxes.

 

[Adamska]

People sure are quick to focus their undue hate on a single person.

And, yes, it is undue hate. You might disaprove of lootboxes, you might not like their inclusion in games or their ubiquity nowadays, but there's no reason to be so hateful about this issue. It's simply a new monetizing model, one that gained lots of traction due to it being, well, profitable.

That said, since most games that include lootboxes also include ways to gain said lootboxes without spending a single dime, there's literally nothing wrong with their inclusion. If the game feels grindy due to them then just play it 'til you're content and move one instead of being so endlessly spiteful of them. Since most lootboxes are merely cosmetic anyway, their affecting of gameplay is nonexistant. And even in cases like Ultimate Team, they still don't affect the core gameplay and you can mostly steer clear of the mode anyway and play normal multiplayer matches.

 

[diablogg]

Have they? We saw this year with how Bethesda spent less effort marketing their games and they underperformed. Seems like marketing still might matter.

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I do think it's alot more important for single player games.

 

[Markitron]

The point he makes about EA's business being entirely dependent on lootboxes is very interesting. It had never really occurred to me before. Would be hilarious if their own greed led to their downfall.

 

[Duxxy3]

Wow! I genuinely thought Acti/blizzard were making a mint off of loot boxes?

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COD definitely is. But ActiBlizzion still make a ton just selling games and regular DLC. I'm sure they'd love to keep loot boxes, but not reliant on loot boxes like EA.

 

[ElBoxy]

That was the part I disagree with the most.

Most trading cards are worth jack shit. Yes, they are physical cards and maybe you can burn them to heat your place (not really but you get my gist) but they don't really have much value. If I were to buy a Yu-Gi-Oh booster pack I wouldn't be able to sell all the common cards, which is the vast majority of what you get, for any worthwhile number.

Additionally, loot boxes with market places exist, like CS:GO, TF2 and in part still Dota 2. You can even use third party sites instead of 100% relying on Steam market itself.

Lastly, the video's author was pointing out how the publishers are in complete control of that market as they control rarity etc. That's no different for actual TCGs. How do you create a card worth hundreds of dollars? Well, you only need an already popular game and then make it rare and maybe good, too. Done.

I just don't see this supposedly great value every physically existing card has.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, Your not really making any profit.