Rhowm

Member
Nov 27, 2017
1,693
How likely is it that this trial results in a sentence before the 24 election?

I want Trump to get convicted in at least one of the trials prior to the election to hopefully tank his numbers with independents and this seems the most likely to be it( The documents case is getting costantly delayed by Cannon decisions and in the Georgia case there are a lot of co-defendants which slows down things).
I think a key factor is how quickly the "presidential immunity " motion that Trump has filed gets resolved. Some legal eagles have speculated that the trial could be delayed until SCOTUS rules on it.
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/taking-trump-s-presidential-immunity-briefing-seriously

The second reason to focus on this motion is that, even if it doesn't succeed, it is likely subject to interlocutory appeal—that is, appeal while the case is still pending in the district court—and thus could serve to delay the Jan. 6 trial, which is currently scheduled for March of next year. It seems all but certain that, if Judge Chutkan denies Trump's motion, the former president will appeal the case up to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit and from there to the Supreme Court.
 

turtle553

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,326
How likely is it that this trial results in a sentence before the 24 election?

I want Trump to get convicted in at least one of the trials prior to the election to hopefully tank his numbers with independents and this seems the most likely to be it( The documents case is getting costantly delayed by Cannon decisions and in the Georgia case there are a lot of co-defendants which slows down things).

There can be a delay between a verdict and sentencing, usually about 3 months. Since nothing is usual about this case it could take longer or shorter. I'd say there's about a 20% chance he is actually in jail when the election happens but probably waiting on sentencing and appeals.
 

Rhowm

Member
Nov 27, 2017
1,693
*edit apologies posted in the wrong thread ( can be easy to loose track of the indictments lol)
 
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Version 3.0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,642
2) Trump's motion to compel discovery, filed 27 Nov, looks like another giant fishing expedition, seeking all kinds of irrelevant stuff like investigations into foreign influence in the 2016 and 2020 elections and so on. And, perhaps recognising that this is a really long shot ...

He wouldn't be dumb enough to try the argument "I had to interfere to offset this other interference", would he? I mean, that is a standard right-wing belief ('cheating is okay because everybody does it', or 'we have to cheat because they cheat'). I wouldn't be surprised if Trump is on record saying exactly that, somewhere. But in this trial, it would just be an admission of guilt.
 

The Real Abed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,790
Pennsylvania
The trial starts at the beginning of March and will certainly conclude before the GOP primary is finished. If convicted, he'll be sentenced long before the election and any incarceration will have a very negative impact on attempting to run any sort of campaign. He'll basically be de-platformed right off the campaign trail right when people are starting to pay attention to such things.
God I hope so. I really hope so.
 
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phisheep

phisheep

Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,007
A relevant opinion by the DC Circuit denying Trump's motion to dismiss for presidential immunity in Jan 6 civil suits. It won't be binding for the criminal case(s), but it may well be influential.
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,382
Why does this guy get to keep using presidential immunity in every case. Shouldnt that always be shot down?
 

Greg NYC3

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,772
Miami
Why does this guy get to keep using presidential immunity in every case. Shouldnt that always be shot down?
He never understood what the presidency entails and thinks that he's still president now, it's just that simple. In his mind being president meant that you could so anything that you wanted without consequences because that's what Fox News told him Obama was doing while president.
 

tuffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,543
He could have a case here though. Normally, a president can't be personally sued for acts they take acting as the president.
He could make the argument that inciting an angry mob of citizens to attack the Capitol is just one of those things a president can do as part of their duties as president and, as such, should be covered by presidential immunity. It doesn't sound like a winning argument, but I guess it's something a court will decide for certain.
 

ivantod

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,561
I really the documents case was going this way. It's egregious.
I think the documents case is pretty much a lost cause at this point, and nobody should be putting any hopes into it. At the very very least, it's likely to be delayed until after the election thanks to the corrupt judge presiding over it. At the very least.
 
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phisheep

phisheep

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Oct 26, 2017
5,007
The full opinion is here, and the accompanying order here.

It dismisses not only Trump's motion to dismiss for Presidential immunity, but also his motion to dismiss on constitutional grounds (1st amendment, double jeopardy, due process).

There's also a minute order denying Trump's motion to stay the case pending resolution of his immunity claim. Of course what Trump meant was that the case should be stayed until all appeals had run their course, but his motion was so circumlocutory that he never actually said that. So Judge Chutkan just denied it as moot following her earlier ruling.

It's a throrough ruling, as we've come to expect of Chutkan. It cites, twice, the DC Circuit''s ruling earlier in the day in Blassingame v Trump, and includes an apparently gratuitous reference to the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 on the purposes of criminal sentencing (nothing is really gratuitous in Chutkan's rulings, so I take this as a warning shot on likely sentencing).

There's also this nice paragraph ....

Against the weight of that history, Defendant argues in essence that because no other former Presidents have been criminally prosecuted, it would be unconstitutional to start now. Immunity Motion at 15–16. But while a former President's prosecution is unprecedented, so too are the allegations that a President committed the crimes with which Defendant is charged.


There are now only five outstanding motions, of which three are fully-briefed and awaiting rulings (Trump's motions to dismiss on statutory grounds and for selective/vindictive prosecution; and the media coalition motion for cameras in the courtroom) and two that will be briefed in December (Trump's motions to compel discovery and to redefine the scope of the 'prosecution team').
 
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rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,549
Phoenix
That's very likely.

I really don't see him being found not guilty in this trial or getting a light sentence.

Not with this judge.
Not with a DC jury.
Not with the case built against him.
I don't know if he'll be in jail but yeah imo he will be found guilty and heading there either way. This election cycle is going to be insanity. If you think Conservatives are going to turn away from Trump after convictions, think again. Every Republican I know will turn up the crazy to 1000, convinced it is a civil war, them vs us. 2024 is going to be the election to determine if America is still a functioning Democracy. It will be more about whether Trump should be in prison or freed, than Joe Biden and grocery prices, mark my words.
 

Mandos

Member
Nov 27, 2017
31,919
I don't know if he'll be in jail but yeah imo he will be found guilty and heading there either way. This election cycle is going to be insanity. If you think Conservatives are going to turn away from Trump after convictions, think again. Every Republican I know will turn up the crazy to 1000, convinced it is a civil war, them vs us. 2024 is going to be the election to determine if America is still a functioning Democracy. It will be more about whether Trump should be in prison or freed, than Joe Biden and grocery prices, mark my words.
If we're being honest that's in our favor, cause independents will actually listen to what matters. Heck even some "loyal" republicans that just vote as low info voters may listen
 

rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,549
Phoenix
If we're being honest that's in our favor, cause independents will actually listen to what matters. Heck even some "loyal" republicans that just vote as low info voters may listen
Yeah I think we win in the end. We have been seeing in recent elections that swing state voters are rejecting MAGA and it really seems like things are going to go extreme that way before the election. It can only help us.
 

Ultryx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
961
United States
I think the documents case is pretty much a lost cause at this point, and nobody should be putting any hopes into it. At the very very least, it's likely to be delayed until after the election thanks to the corrupt judge presiding over it. At the very least.

I agree with you. I just wish it were different. I really wish we knew what secrets this guy gave away, with verifiable evidence. Maybe it will continue post-2024 election and we'll see get to see Trump eat shit there too.

As long as he is defeated.
 

tuffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,543
It's worth remembering that, unlike the ongoing civil trial, this is a criminal trial which requires the defendant's presence every day court's in session. This will be keeping him preoccupied for three whole months during a rather important time of the year.
 

Mandos

Member
Nov 27, 2017
31,919
It's worth remembering that, unlike the ongoing civil trial, this is a criminal trial which requires the defendant's presence every day court's in session. This will be keeping him preoccupied for three whole months during a rather important time of the year.
Right in the middle of primary/campaign season
 

Kemal86

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,501
It's worth remembering that, unlike the ongoing civil trial, this is a criminal trial which requires the defendant's presence every day court's in session. This will be keeping him preoccupied for three whole months during a rather important time of the year.

He will probably jet off to do back to back rallies in the evenings then fly back for court. He's going to be running incredibly ragged. Cant fucking wait.
 
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phisheep

phisheep

Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,007
Trump has filed his notice of appeal of the denial of motions to dismiss based on presidential immunity and constitutional grounds.

He has also filed a motion to stay all proceedings pending resolution of that appeal. He claims the stay is mandatory and automatic and wants the court to rule within 7 days. Yeah.
 
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phisheep

phisheep

Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,007
One thing that Trump claims in his motion is that immunity most be resolved at the earliest possible opportunity, as it is meant to relieve from the whole burden of litigation, not just from trial and conviction.

But I think he be credibly claimed to have waived that, since he merrily engaged in the litigation for at least 4 months before filing the immunity motion.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,302
I'm getting real "closing my eyes, putting hands over ears and saying la-la-la can't hear you" vibes there.
 

tuffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,543
This is a guy who really, really needs this trial to go away and I look forward to seeing how grouchy he gets when it doesn't.