I think a key factor is how quickly the "presidential immunity " motion that Trump has filed gets resolved. Some legal eagles have speculated that the trial could be delayed until SCOTUS rules on it.How likely is it that this trial results in a sentence before the 24 election?
I want Trump to get convicted in at least one of the trials prior to the election to hopefully tank his numbers with independents and this seems the most likely to be it( The documents case is getting costantly delayed by Cannon decisions and in the Georgia case there are a lot of co-defendants which slows down things).
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/taking-trump-s-presidential-immunity-briefing-seriously
The second reason to focus on this motion is that, even if it doesn't succeed, it is likely subject to interlocutory appeal—that is, appeal while the case is still pending in the district court—and thus could serve to delay the Jan. 6 trial, which is currently scheduled for March of next year. It seems all but certain that, if Judge Chutkan denies Trump's motion, the former president will appeal the case up to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit and from there to the Supreme Court.