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The difference in this election is the 17% remainers voting Tory to the 10% of Leavers voting Labour.
Quality news - hoping a few more LDs so this and we can get some reciprocal action from Labour candidates where they're not competitive.
I don't, but I do think the person running it is very optimistic. I applaud it, but I would prefer it if a right wing source was showing this. Seat estimates are mostly nonsense. I would like to know how the person running it is coming up with the seat estimates.
The polling data is 100% on point. The seat estimates may or may not be. I don't know. When it comes to this, the left are biased towards labour and the right biased towards Tory. That is why I would put be more relieved if a right wing account was showing this. I generally do not like to follow highly biased left sources.
Hypothetically, could Swinson get him deselected, and stand someone else?
Pretty much but a month out there's still plenty that could change.
The deadline isn't until Thursday so I'd guess there isn't anything stopping them picking someone else.
He's been pretty open about the model he's using, and it's not like his seat estimates are gamed to show better results for Labour. They've been pretty similar to other estimates as far as I'm aware.
It's fairly crude, but there's nothing underhand here.
Yup, but it's mostly up to the local party to get someone in place. They'll probably be in talks with HQ tonight and will be told how high they have to jump.
My suspicion is that the LD HQ will let this go, but we'll see.
If she enjoys sub 11% polling she could do.
Would be a flash point for them and labour would scoop up many across the country who were in two minds about voting for them.
Am I reading this right he wanted Labour to step aside in a seat they hold?
Hopefully more ultra remainers will follow his example and come to their senses over the next month. Voting Lib Dems in Labour/Tory marginals hands more seats to Tories and helps kill any chance of a second referendum.
God. Good on him for doing this, but Tim Walker is still a massive, massive twat.
Yeah, you're a fucking saint mate, now jog off back to The Telegraph.
Yeah, you're a fucking saint mate, now jog off back to The Telegraph.
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Nothing to see here. There is no anti Islam/Racism issue within the tories.
Do you not remember the tweet when people first pointed this out where his reply was "oh well the simple solution is for Rosie to join us and I'll happily stand aside for her"
I believe it will be in reference to the fact that Labour refused to get involved in the alliance with Plaid and the Greens, i.e. he would have been stood down if Labour were willing to be involved.
He explicitly says in that quote the deal is in reference to that specific seat
I... don't get it. Ignoring the self-own for a minute, what point is actually he trying to make?
How would 'educating young people about the realities of student loans and repayments' (i.e. it's a fucking nightmare of debt that only seems to be getting worse) not discourage people, and therefore lower the rates of working class people going to uni.?
It's not really a nightmare of debt though...
You only pay it back if you're earning enough to afford it. It's effectively just an extra tax for going to uni.
I mean, in terms of getting people to university we have never had as many working class people going as we do now (or indeed,middle class people as well). Correlation doesn't equal causation, but tuition fees don't seem to have harmed the explosive growth in student numbers at all?
So either you aren't successful enough to pay it back (which means you're on less than £19k, is it?) which means your quality of life is pretty low, or basically it's an anchor dragging you back as soon as you do become 'successful' (and £19k ain't that). What a choice.
Perhaps because as the lad says there isn't enough education as to the full cost? I suspect that the rise in numbers is more to do with the general feeling pushed by successive governments that a degree is a requirement for a job and is the new normal.
Universities need to admit more students in order to get more funding. They don't actually care if they complete their degrees or not.
I'm not sure it's that explicit, but potato/potato really. Lib Dems wanted to involve Labour in "Remain Alliance" related deals for seats, and Labour weren't interested. It's certainly not in relation to Labour stepping aside in this seat, otherwise Walker's candidacy wouldn't have been delayed because of it.
Universities have more money than they know what to do with these days. I can understand the argument that cutting university funding or making the tax payer take all the costs may be a negative to someone.
I love that he's a politics student. Of course he's happy he didn't have to pay, it clearly didn't teach him much if he walked straight into that one
Either you aren't successful and it's free, or you are and you pay back what is a relatively tiny sum.
That doesn't sound like a bad choice at all to me.
Also the threshold is currently £25.7k.
And I say this as someone who literally graduated this summer with some £30k of debt. I'm not worried about my debt in the slightest.
"My party had strained to do a deal with Labour in relation to this seat"
It's not an anchor. It gets taken out of your pay, much like tax, once you earn above the specific threshold.
You're not going to default on it, it's not going to impact your ability to get a loan, and if you stop working then it's forgotten about until you meet the threshold again.
And after 30 years (I think) it's wiped completely.
I do think fees are too high but there is definitely a bit of fearmongering/confusion reigning when fees are brought up.
Might be either a local ask "if we stand down, can we get a free run at a council seat" or a more national view of "can you stand down in, say, St Ives".
Generally, getting something in return is the point of a negotiation. In this case the candidate ended up having to reluctantly stand down.
That is defiently it. The education system itself makes university as the be all and end all.
There needs to be a change in letting young people know that you can have a good quality of life without going to university and there are other options.
Not every child is an academic. There are other careers one can take but the schooling system doesn't really promote that.
I have a 9 year old son and already his mother is adamant that he will go to university but I just can't accept that. He could want different things and their is nothing wrong with that.
I'm really struggling to understand what you're trying to get at here.
If it's just about a specific deal for Canterbury vs. Unite to Remain, I think they both essentially fall under the same umbrella.
If you think it's about the Lib Dems wanting Labour to stand down for the seat, that's completely incompatible with the fact that it was Walker's candidacy that was put on hold.
Thing is when many employers ask for degrees for jobs that don't need it, you don't have much choice.
This is probably just tin hat, but it really sounds like the 'interviewer' is putting on a voice.
Ah, apologies, I didn't know they'd changed the threshold, better, but I suspect that's a starting point on a much higher lump sum to pay.
You think your £30k is a relatively tiny sum? What's the total lifetime cost going to be of that, given that all signs seem to point that the interest rates will only go up for every new generation of students. It's basically a mortgage before you even try to get an actual mortgage. Everyone's going to be living with their parents forever. At least that's how it seems to me.
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