UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)

[Deleted member 31104]

I mean I get the impetus to appeal to Tory remainers. I do, but there's ways they could leave the issue of whether to stand to the local constituency organisations while still being strident against Labour (right or wrong of putting the boot into Labour you can debate, but from a narrow party pov it's probably the smart position).

What's strange is it's typically local associations who are dead set against any standing down.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

One of the big thing that people will take from this room is how spectacularly the Lib Dems (and the Brexit Party to some extent) misread the significance of their performance in the EU elections.

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Shocked to hear that about Jo Swinson's Battlebus (featuring the Lib Dems)

 

[GS_Dan]

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That last paragraph rings very true. Glad that there are some LD candidates taking a stand like this, hope that Labour will do the same in places where it would be appropriate.

 

[Deleted member 31104]

The thing the coalition proved about the Lib Dems is that a bit like the DUP, the Lib Dems tend to be pretty good in tactically and organisationally (they're a very slick operation at the local level) but are absolute blithering morons at a strategic level. I mean almost totally.

 

[Geoff]

My theory about the LDs just pretending to put new MPs in these seats is looking extremely thin now.

What the fuck are they doing? Who's fucking masterplan is this?

 

[Khoryos]

My theory about the LDs just pretending to put new MPs in these seats is looking extremely thin now.

What the fuck are they doing? Who's fucking masterplan is this?

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It's just the spasming of the wounded beast Capital.

 

[Zastava]

Swinson really got high on her own farts after the Euro elections and those polls which had them in the mid-20s.

 

[Deleted member 8463]

Like old, not relevant to current conversations.
But.... surely, just surely, it's worth a shot?

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He knew exactly how catastrophic the Iraq war would be for the entire region.

 

[Deleted member 31104]

You have to remember Swinson is a blithering moron who doesn't have any fixed political sensibilities.

 

[theaface]

Swinson really got high on her own farts after the Euro elections and those polls which had them in the mid-20s.

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Whatever gave you that impression?

 

[Deleted member 34788]

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Just waiting for them to implode in real time now. They do this they can kiss the labour remain voters good bye.

At least it will make the cons shit the bed when the remain vote falls behind labour.

This is what you get when you choose fucking Umna as a mp and a senior figure in your party. Man is a walking disaster

Oh and Im glad that statement also highlights swinstons hyper aggressive style.

 

[Deleted member 31104]

The thing is Labour need the Lib Dems not to implode. In fact, they need the Lib Dems to have a fucking fantastic election in the South of England.

 

[KingSnake]

Swinson read the room terribly wrong. The failure of LDs in these elections will be totally on her stubbornness.

But it's good that at least the LD members are seeing the issues here.

 

[Gareth]

They only have until 4pm tomorrow to decide to pull out of any seats...

The names of the nominated candidates will then appear on the ballot paper and they cannot decide to withdraw.

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[Geoff]

The thing is Labour need the Lib Dems not to implode. In fact, they need the Lib Dems to have a fucking fantastic election in the South of England.

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This is also true. The LDs need to batter the SW. Those seats should be RIPE for the plucking but there are some big swings required and if they carry on like this, people aren't going to swing behind them in the numbers required. And that's bad for everyone.

 

[Zappy]

Nearly half the country find the tories to be a great party that represents their values.

People can keep complaining that its the oppositions fault but reality is that just like America, roughly 35%-40% of the electorate have been brainwashed by right wing media to support these sort of parties and policies.

If people like you think this is something easily changed without moving towards being like the tories then you are severely mistaken. If we want to actually have a left wing government it's gonna take a lot of hard work and most likely legislation to prevent the media from being able to continue spreading their bullshit as they have been for decades.

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What's easily changed is image and perception. How things are presented. Blair and co did so much for the country - so much good. Were they perfect - no. But they at least gave us a proper functioning health service, well invested schools and put resources into social care and local community projects. I'd take that right now.

I agree that you are correct in that the basic issue is that 40% of the country roughly are brainwashed by right wing media - but the way to fight that IMO is to find a way of reaching out to them. You cannot fight it by putting up the complete opposite and expecting them to buy it, especially when its packaged poorly.

I'm 40 years old - the majority of my life has been spent under Tory governments - pretty horrendous ones too - and I'm going to spend another 10 years under one at least - or that seems likely - and almost certainly this will be the worst one.

Blair showed how to beat them - we don't need a Blair clone in terms of policy but we sure as hell need someone who is seen as vibrant, fresh and up for the fight. Someone capable of directly taking Johnson on. Someone who is able to use the media and get business on side. Ideology will leave me seeing out my days with Tory governments. Because as you've accurately said the reality is that 40% believe that is what they want. I do not believe it is actually what they want. But they need to be shown.

 

[Deleted member 34788]

My theory about the LDs just pretending to put new MPs in these seats is looking extremely thin now.

What the fuck are they doing? Who's fucking masterplan is this?

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Who's?

Chucka fucking umnas is who. The same idiot who made the independent party.

The thing is Labour need the Lib Dems not to implode. In fact, they need the Lib Dems to have a fucking fantastic election in the South of England.

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Certainly, I still think they will pick up a fair few seats in the south and southwest and likely outperform expectations. But the polling is going to take a major hit now.

They are playing all of this horribly wrong, and that is going to stunt them taking as many seats as they could have.

 

[Tygre]

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Fucking hell, proper two-footed this.

The Lib Dems are a real conundrum. The membership and lower levels of the party are largely the sort of well-meaning soft-Left that Labour could get along with swimmingly, but the party is run by a bunch of grade-A centrist wankers.

 

[Flammable D]

Someone who is able to use the media and get business on side.

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I wonder how Blair did that 🤔🤔🤔🤔

 

[FSP]

If a LD candidate doesn't want to run, they shouldn't run. Simple as that. There'll still be candidates put up wherever possible because that's just how campaigning is done.

 

[Old_King_Coal]

What's easily changed is image and perception. How things are presented. Blair and co did so much for the country - so much good. Were they perfect - no. But they at least gave us a proper functioning health service, well invested schools and put resources into social care and local community projects. I'd take that right now.

I agree that you are correct in that the basic issue is that 40% of the country roughly are brainwashed by right wing media - but the way to fight that IMO is to find a way of reaching out to them. You cannot fight it by putting up the complete opposite and expecting them to buy it, especially when its packaged poorly.

I'm 40 years old - the majority of my life has been spent under Tory governments - pretty horrendous ones too - and I'm going to spend another 10 years under one at least - or that seems likely - and almost certainly this will be the worst one.

Blair showed how to beat them - we don't need a Blair clone in terms of policy but we sure as hell need someone who is seen as vibrant, fresh and up for the fight. Someone capable of directly taking Johnson on. Someone who is able to use the media and get business on side. Ideology will leave me seeing out my days with Tory governments. Because as you've accurately said the reality is that 40% believe that is what they want. I do not believe it is actually what they want. But they need to be shown.

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If you are going to take this stance, I feel I should make it clear what you are actually committing to. The voters that voted Labour under Blair but gradually left since 2005 are not the ones that he brought into the party in 1997. They have left Labour because of immigration. Some also left because of the economy in 2010 its true, but they have since returned to the party. The holdouts, the ones who are pushing Johnson's numbers, are anti-labour not because of left wing economics, but because of a combination of social issues such as immigration, and are primarily motivated by, well, I'll be generous and say at least bigotry-adjacent values. 'Reaching out' to these people doesn't mean moderating Corbyn's economic policies. It means pandering to bigotry. If you believe that reaching out is the only way to win, fine, but please don't think that this is about economics.

 

[Dirtyshubb]

What's easily changed is image and perception. How things are presented. Blair and co did so much for the country - so much good. Were they perfect - no. But they at least gave us a proper functioning health service, well invested schools and put resources into social care and local community projects. I'd take that right now.

I agree that you are correct in that the basic issue is that 40% of the country roughly are brainwashed by right wing media - but the way to fight that IMO is to find a way of reaching out to them. You cannot fight it by putting up the complete opposite and expecting them to buy it, especially when its packaged poorly.

I'm 40 years old - the majority of my life has been spent under Tory governments - pretty horrendous ones too - and I'm going to spend another 10 years under one at least - or that seems likely - and almost certainly this will be the worst one.

Blair showed how to beat them - we don't need a Blair clone in terms of policy but we sure as hell need someone who is seen as vibrant, fresh and up for the fight. Someone capable of directly taking Johnson on. Someone who is able to use the media and get business on side. Ideology will leave me seeing out my days with Tory governments. Because as you've accurately said the reality is that 40% believe that is what they want. I do not believe it is actually what they want. But they need to be shown.

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The thing that people always forget in political arguments is that things aren't static and just because one thing worked previous, doesn't mean it will work now or more importantly be enough since the playing field is constantly in flux.

Blair did good but that was because he bowed down to big business and that allowed him to gain favour with the press and so he was allowed to do some good stuff on the side.

But this isn't 97 and the disparity between rich and poor is bigger than it's ever been and the power and influence dynamic has vastly shifted towards big business and so if we really want to change things for the better, we need real, systemic change to how things currently are and the media simply aren't going to allow that without a fight because it directly affects them.

The moment you start 'playing the game' is the moment you lose any real chance of making changes, especially the sort of drastic changes we need for social care, the health service, climate change etc. We have let it get so bad that the only way these issues can be solved is with a big actions that are going to cost a lot of money which is why the balance of power needs to be shifted back to the government and people instead of big business.

 

[Madison]

tbh the Lib Dems seem to be heading a crash far quicker than i expected

 

[danowat]

I wonder how Blair did that 🤔🤔🤔🤔

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Because he was a charismatic person with questionable morals and flexible principals.

 

[Zappy]

If you are going to take this stance, I feel I should make it clear what you are actually committing to. The voters that voted Labour under Blair but gradually left since 2005 are not the ones that he brought into the party in 1997. They have left Labour because of immigration. Some also left because of the economy in 2010 its true, but they have since returned to the party. The holdouts, the ones who are pushing Johnson's numbers, are anti-labour not because of left wing economics, but because of a combination of social issues such as immigration, and are primarily motivated by, well, I'll be generous and say at least bigotry-adjacent values. 'Reaching out' to these people doesn't mean moderating Corbyn's economic policies. It means pandering to bigotry. If you believe that reaching out is the only way to win, fine, but please don't think that this is about economics.

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Totally agree - its fruitless chasing the Labour Brexiteers - and also absolutely against every principle I have.

Chasing the lapsed traditional Labour voter - sure. Not something to be done.

We should not be pandering to bigotry or racism.

However, I don't agree with your analysis that it is those voters who will be critical - it is the middle class voter that Labour needs to win - the ones who ultimately are socially progressive but fearful when they see the nonsense the Tories put out about Labour's spending plans. People who genuinely watch TV and see Corbyn as a bit of a funny old man who can't dress properly. Middle England. That's where Labour can win if they find a dynamic leader able to play the game well.

 

[KingSnake]

If a LD candidate doesn't want to run, they shouldn't run. Simple as that. There'll still be candidates put up wherever possible because that's just how campaigning is done.

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In theory yes, but in practice it clashes with the idea of doing everything to stop Brexit. And it's a failure to adapt to the perception of the public. You can see that by looking at the shift of Remain voters in polls.

 

[Khoryos]

Totally agree - its fruitless chasing the Labour Brexiteers - and also absolutely against every principle I have.

Chasing the lapsed traditional Labour voter - sure. Not something to be done.

We should not be pandering to bigotry or racism.

However, I don't agree with your analysis that it is those voters who will be critical - it is the middle class voter that Labour needs to win - the ones who ultimately are socially progressive but fearful when they see the nonsense the Tories put out about Labour's spending plans. People who genuinely watch TV and see Corbyn as a bit of a funny old man who can't dress properly. Middle England. That's where Labour can win if they find a dynamic leader able to play the game well.

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You seem to be making the assumption that the poor media performance is a problem inherent to Corbyn.
There's a reason that his favourability metrics and polling scores go up during purdah - Corbyn *is* dynamic and charismatic, just look at the crowds at his rallies - but no left-wing politician will get fair treatment in the British press.

 

[theaface]

If a LD candidate doesn't want to run, they shouldn't run. Simple as that. There'll still be candidates put up wherever possible because that's just how campaigning is done.

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Come on Huw, you can't surely be defending the latter here? Tactical voting, splitting the vote, alliances are all front-and-centre of political discourse now and that genie is well and truly out of the bottle.

In the case of this one particular seat (though I accept this cuts across all parties, in many other seats as well), the fact is that Walker has sensibly recognised that his candidacy would actively work against the very outcome he wants to secure (some permutation of referendum/revoke). For the party leadership to then insist on running a candidate, any candidate in that same seat, purely because "that's just how campaigning is done" is fingers-in-ears denial of the reality of the situation.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Meanwhile, the reaction to Boris up north seems to be gaining some traction. Seems like he's struck the 'right' balance of people hating him for taking so long to respond, and that any response he's actually taking now is a cynical consideration of the election.

 

[Brotherhood93]

Just seen that 110,000 people aged under 35 registered to vote yesterday, most since the election was called. Around 500,000 people under 25 in the last two weeks too. Don't know how that compares to 2017 but seems encouraging if it continues.

 

[Old_King_Coal]

Totally agree - its fruitless chasing the Labour Brexiteers - and also absolutely against every principle I have.

Chasing the lapsed traditional Labour voter - sure. Not something to be done.

We should not be pandering to bigotry or racism.

However, I don't agree with your analysis that it is those voters who will be critical - it is the middle class voter that Labour needs to win - the ones who ultimately are socially progressive but fearful when they see the nonsense the Tories put out about Labour's spending plans. People who genuinely watch TV and see Corbyn as a bit of a funny old man who can't dress properly. Middle England. That's where Labour can win if they find a dynamic leader able to play the game well.

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This is probably an area where we will have to respectfully disagree, but the data I've seen suggests that the common unifying factor of the groups of people who saw a net swing to the Tories in 2017 was hostility to immigration. All other groups saw a net swing to Labour, especially progressive centrists and right wingers. (Bizarrely, socially moderate centrists were shown to be more anti-immigrant than socially moderate right-wingers and socially conservative centrists, so the former swung to the Tories whilst the latter two swung to Labour.)



Here's where I'm getting my data (on page 50) https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-co...FRACTURED_POLITICS_TURNER_M_ET_AL_2018_V4.pdf

It's the same thing I posted in the last thread. The descriptions of the clans you see in the graph are in the document but I understand if you don't wanna have to go through all that. Hopefully you can take my word for it that I'm representing the data truthfully.

 

[Gareth]

 

[Gareth]

Gauke backs another referendum.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Just seen that 110,000 people aged under 35 registered to vote yesterday, most since the election was called. Around 500,000 people under 25 in the last two weeks too. Don't know how that compares to 2017 but seems encouraging if it continues.

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It's one of the few slim hopes I have going into this election. We've had years of younger voters coming of age, seeing the mess the Tories are making of the country, services and Brexit, and seeing their future opportunities being obliterated. If that demographic is registering to vote in huge numbers, we could see some interesting and unexpected swings.

 

[ProstatePuncher]

Scottish church minister gives Tories the perfect ammo. How fucking blind of him.

 

[Deleted member 862]

Just seen that 110,000 people aged under 35 registered to vote yesterday, most since the election was called. Around 500,000 people under 25 in the last two weeks too. Don't know how that compares to 2017 but seems encouraging if it continues.

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About double so far at this point. I posted some stuff yesterday about it.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/uk...ndsight-is-20-19.151404/page-45#post-26383096

 

[Brotherhood93]

Gauke backs another referendum.

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I would assume the difference is that Grieve voted against the Government in every vote on Brexit while Gauke voted in favour. Gauke also voted for the timetable motion. The Lib Dems are right to field a candidate against him.

 

[Huddy]

Another video from Momentum.

https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesMomentum/videos/581041692637703/

Tories standing tall on hypocritical hill as usual.

 

[Streamlined]

 

[ruttyboy]

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I'm spending my luch time reading the replies to that tweet. It genuinely makes me want to weep :(

I'm so stressed in general and watching bias in action every day is just making it worse and worse.

This morning on Radio 4 after repeating one of the Tory's bullshit claims, they countered it by saying, "Maybe it doesn't quite stand up however", before listing several reasons why it 100% absofuckinglutely doesn't stand up. Even when they report on the gaslighting, they're so scared of just coming out and stating that it's depressing.

 

[Streamlined]

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He seems nice.

 

[Gareth]

 

[Rodelero]

In theory yes, but in practice it clashes with the idea of doing everything to stop Brexit. And it's a failure to adapt to the perception of the public. You can see that by looking at the shift of Remain voters in polls.

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I think it's pretty questionable to suggest that there is some huge shift in polling due to the issues with Lib Dem campaigning. It's got far more to do with the reality of FPTP.

 

[Arkestry]

Another video from Momentum.

https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesMomentum/videos/581041692637703/

Tories standing tall on hypocritical hill as usual.

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God this is just horrific. The hypocrisy is so thick you could chew on it.



I could watch Johnson getting the verbal shit kicked out of him all day.

 

[kradical]

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If Labour gets their voters to vote, they win.

 

[Salty_Josh]

God this is just horrific. The hypocrisy is so thick you could chew on it.



I could watch Johnson getting the verbal shit kicked out of him all day.

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Yo wtf I have that same jacket. I hate this guy

 

[Deleted member 31104]

Johnson isn't much better at this than May. Remember he only really ran for London Mayor against Livingstone who was unpopular just as New Labour had lost its shine. While it wasn't expected that he'd win, it wasn't exactly the most murderous terrain in which to do so.

 

[Brotherhood93]

If Labour gets their voters to vote, they win.

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This is why the doom and gloom and "inevitable Tory majority" talk needs to stop. Even if a Labour majority isn't likely we absolutely can get the Tories out.

 

[Zappy]

You seem to be making the assumption that the poor media performance is a problem inherent to Corbyn.
There's a reason that his favourability metrics and polling scores go up during purdah - Corbyn *is* dynamic and charismatic, just look at the crowds at his rallies - but no left-wing politician will get fair treatment in the British press.

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Take a look at this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZUMEgHmCY8

Tell me - when has Corbyn ever managed to put in such a commanding performance in PMQs? Normally he is looking down and reading off his paper - unable to look people in the eye - he stumbles over what he's trying to say. He never looks dynamic or charismatic. And PMQs is his chance every week to do so. To appear like he's switched on and able to take his opponent down.

This is what I mean by dynamic and charismatic. Someone sharp and switched on and able to succinctly destroy the bogus Tory arguments. And boil them down into a simplistic and rememberable slogan.

That's what politics is - how you present - how you convince. I've seen most PMQs and never once seen Corbyn perform like this.

 

[kradical]

This is why the doom and gloom and "inevitable Tory majority" talk needs to stop. Even if a Labour majority isn't likely we absolutely can get the Tories out.

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Yup, pessimism breeds more pessimism and suppresses the vote. This election is absolutely there for the winning. As the polls tighten and people start seeing the result isn't a foregone conclusion, more and more of these non-voting Labour supporters are going to get on board. We're going to win this.