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Acorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,972
Scotland
You've answered your own question. They "agreed to austerity" because it was widely accepted across the electorate and all political parties that spending controls were needed. They had no choice. And I suspect they thought they could influence things from within.
The point of asking the poster that was pointing out they did a dumb thing before so it's perfectly possible they will again as he was asking why they would do something seemingly illogical.

Anybody that didn't have foresight to realise non Tories would not like austerity is an idiot.
 

Streamlined

alt account
Banned
Sep 16, 2019
243
Digging deeper on those Survation numbers:

Age 18-34: 45% certain to vote
Age 55+: 81% certain to vote

Household income <£20k: 50% certain to vote
Household income >£40k: 77% certain to vote

Women: 61% certain to vote
Men: 74% certain to vote

Every demographic that favours the Tories is more certain to vote than every demographic that favours Labour.

That is where the gap is. Get. Out. The. Vote.

Changing minds is great and all, but the single best thing you can do this election is convince the people who are already predisposed to agree with you to actually vote.

Those numbers are simultaneously depressing and also quite exciting as they're indicative of what is still to play for with very solid ground campaign game where it matters, and a Labour manifesto with radical climate change policies will also help massively with the 18-34 vote.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
744
No major political party opposed austerity in the 2010 GE.

the thing about austerity is there's a difference between the gordon brown approach to the deficit mania of 2009-15 that would use tax rises and spread the smaller cuts evenly and the tory approach which is to reduce the deficit more, primarily through cuts and primarily through cuts that affected the poorest (who didn't vote tory). the way local government was cut in a party political way so labour councils took the brunt of osborne's choices while surrey councils got a plumb deal was a disgrace.

also according to rawnsley's book 'the end of the party' brown only agreed to the deficit agenda because darling forced him to as a condition of backing him against the internal coups of the era, he wanted to run on growing our way to recovery. which is what he did until the election loss, the economy was out of recession because of his stewardship then osborne took it back in.
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
I dunno, I just do not see them working with labour in anyway that puts Corbyn in no 10, it's hard to sell that to the Tory MPs and labour MPs that left because they hate him and most of labours policies.
If it's a choice of a second ref with Corbyn in government but dependent on their votes and with the ability to bring him down at will if he steps outside what they consider acceptable, of course they fucking will. The alternative would be BoJo in No. 10 and a hard Brexit and that would be worse for them.

I mean even the referrendum itself would likely be a wash, the lib dems would have to support Labour enough to enter government in order to be able to negotiate a deal either that make the referrendum on Boris deal with labour running the negotians?

It simply far more likely the Linden's will enter some sort of agreement with the Tories than anything else.
No it fucking isn't. Their number one priority and all Swinson ever bangs on about is Brexit and the prevention thereof. They. Are. Not. Going. To. Enter. Into. An. Agreement. With. The. Fucking. Tories. There is no compromising on Brexit for either the LDs or the Tories. They're locked into their extreme positions and their respective support is conditional on that extremity. Either one of them breaking it would end up immediately losing huge chunks of their supporters.

Christ some of you lot are pathological. I get it, the LDs went into coalition before and therefore aren't to be trusted. That doesn't mean they're morons FFS.
 

Deleted member 835

User requested account deletion
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,660
You've answered your own question. They "agreed to austerity" because it was widely accepted across the electorate and all political parties that spending controls were needed. They had no choice. And I suspect they thought they could influence things from within.
Why didn't the Libs stop Windrush from happening or at least speak out? Windrush happened under the coalition.
 

Acorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,972
Scotland
If it's a choice of a second ref with Corbyn in government but dependent on their votes and with the ability to bring him down at will if he steps outside what they consider acceptable, of course they fucking will. The alternative would be BoJo in No. 10 and a hard Brexit and that would be worse for them.


No it fucking isn't. Their number one priority and all Swinson ever bangs on about is Brexit and the prevention thereof. They. Are. Not. Going. To. Enter. Into. An. Agreement. With. The. Fucking. Tories. There is no compromising on Brexit for either the LDs or the Tories. They're locked into their extreme positions and their respective support is conditional on that extremity. Either one of them breaking it would end up immediately losing huge chunks of their supporters.

Christ some of you lot are pathological. I get it, the LDs went into coalition before and therefore aren't to be trusted. That doesn't mean they're morons FFS.
We'll see, it's all likely moot in any case.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,191
If it's a choice of a second ref with Corbyn in government but dependent on their votes and with the ability to bring him down at will if he steps outside what they consider acceptable, of course they fucking will. The alternative would be BoJo in No. 10 and a hard Brexit and that would be worse for them.


No it fucking isn't. Their number one priority and all Swinson ever bangs on about is Brexit and the prevention thereof. They. Are. Not. Going. To. Enter. Into. An. Agreement. With. The. Fucking. Tories. There is no compromising on Brexit for either the LDs or the Tories. They're locked into their extreme positions and their respective support is conditional on that extremity. Either one of them breaking it would end up immediately losing huge chunks of their supporters.

Christ some of you lot are pathological. I get it, the LDs went into coalition before and therefore aren't to be trusted. That doesn't mean they're morons FFS.
They have also attacked Jeremy Corbyn at every opportunity and ruled out any sort of pact with them.

That's their words, you can't simultaneously say they're lying about one thing but say they're totally not lying about the other.

It makes no sense your upset at people literally taking the Lib Dems at their word.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
744
it's impressive that mark francois and nigel farage are better at seeing clearly the state of play and compromising accordingly than corbyn-fans angry about lib dems enabling austerity and FBPE angry about corbyn not opposing brexit enough

they'll get their hard brexit, sell off the nhs to trump and hand eu citizens to an evil home office, we'll get neither remain nor a radical socialist government
 

Deleted member 835

User requested account deletion
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,660
it's impressive that mark francois and nigel farage are better at seeing clearly the state of play and compromising accordingly than corbyn-fans angry about lib dems enabling austerity and FBPE angry about corbyn not opposing brexit enough

they'll get their hard brexit and sell of the nhs to trump, we'll get neither remain nor a radical socialist government
I will never vote Libs, but then they are dead where I live anyways.
 

Acorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,972
Scotland
it's impressive that mark francois and nigel farage are better at seeing clearly the state of play and compromising accordingly than corbyn-fans angry about lib dems enabling austerity and FBPE angry about corbyn not opposing brexit enough

they'll get their hard brexit, sell off the nhs to trump and hand eu citizens to an evil home office, we'll get neither remain nor a radical socialist government
I don't think any one has said labour shouldn't work with the lib Dems if needed?
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
They have also attacked Jeremy Corbyn at every opportunity and ruled out any sort of pact with them.

That's their words, you can't simultaneously say they're lying about one thing but say they're totally not lying about the other.

It makes no sense your upset at people literally taking the Lib Dems at their word.
Because breaking one of these two promises achieves their aims and the other one doesn't. Moreover, I don't think there will be any formal pact. There will be an under the table agreement to not bring Corbyn down as long as he's working towards a second ref and/or remaining. Apart from that, all bets are off.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,191
Because breaking one of these two promises achieves their aims and the other one doesn't. Moreover, I don't think there will be any formal pact. There will be an under the table agreement to not bring Corbyn down as long as he's working towards a second ref and/or remaining. Apart from that, all bets are off.
This is your political analysis, others can have their own.

That's perfectly fine, don't get upset at people for not assuming a political party is lying.
 
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kradical

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,570
The Lib Dem whisperers' ability to interpret Jo Swinson's repeated and unequivocal refusal to work with Corbyn at any time in any circumstance as a covert signal that actually she means the opposite, and at the same time act indignant when anyone doesn't take her 100% on her word that she won't do a deal with the Tories will never not be amusing.
 

Streamlined

alt account
Banned
Sep 16, 2019
243
Not as bad as it could be, seems like Labour is continuing to canabalise the Lib Dems and the Tories took more of the Brexit Part vote.
Yeah it's still not too bad footing for Labour for now. I suspect there's still some Brexit Party/Tory drama to come once the manifesto is out and they have a written position on deal/no deal.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646
Digging deeper on those Survation numbers:

Age 18-34: 45% certain to vote
Age 55+: 81% certain to vote

Household income <£20k: 50% certain to vote
Household income >£40k: 77% certain to vote

Women: 61% certain to vote
Men: 74% certain to vote

Every demographic that favours the Tories is more certain to vote than every demographic that favours Labour.

That is where the gap is. Get. Out. The. Vote.

Changing minds is great and all, but the single best thing you can do this election is convince the people who are already predisposed to agree with you to actually vote.

on this, new voters are tracking way higher than in 2017. About double than 2017 so at this point so far.

1.2m new registered voters so far since Oct 28th. 65% under 35 (source)

muB40hA.png


2019 v 2017 totals (so far)

The last few days see big spikes

 

Spaghetti

Member
Dec 2, 2017
2,740
While perpetually on the subject of the Lib Dems...



The "skills wallet" policy from the LDs is dumb anyway. Can't imagine anybody other than private training providers will find any use for it.
 

Guppeth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,948
Sheffield, UK
Digging deeper on those Survation numbers:

Age 18-34: 45% certain to vote
Age 55+: 81% certain to vote

Household income <£20k: 50% certain to vote
Household income >£40k: 77% certain to vote

Women: 61% certain to vote
Men: 74% certain to vote

Every demographic that favours the Tories is more certain to vote than every demographic that favours Labour.

That is where the gap is. Get. Out. The. Vote.

Changing minds is great and all, but the single best thing you can do this election is convince the people who are already predisposed to agree with you to actually vote.
This is super important. I know I spend too much time nagging entrenched Tories and not enough time trying to encourage non-voters to vote.
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
2,108
London
The Lib Dem whisperers' ability to interpret Jo Swinson's repeated and unequivocal refusal to work with Corbyn at any time in any circumstance as a covert signal that actually she means the opposite, and at the same time act indignant when anyone doesn't take her 100% on her word that she won't do a deal with the Tories will never not be amusing.
Don't be a prick.

My position is entirely based on logic and what the LDs want to achieve i.e. remaining and positioning themselves as the "sensible" and "moderate" centrists in a world of extremists. Whereas half the thread assumes they'll throw everything away again because the Tories show some leg, which would be dumb as shit and have them polling at 6% again the following week.

Maybe I'm making a mistake in assuming the LDs are rational actors, but I fucking doubt it.
 

Deleted member 34788

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 29, 2017
3,545



Not....actually too bad this stage in the game. However I do expect a smaller bump for both as many bxp voters just wash their hands with the election and just not vote.


on this, new voters are tracking way higher than in 2017. About double than 2017 so at this point so far.

1.2m new registered voters so far since Oct 28th. 65% under 35 (source)




2019 v 2017 totals (so far)

The last few days see big spikes


One of the dark horses of the election.
 

Streamlined

alt account
Banned
Sep 16, 2019
243
Not....actually too bad this stage in the game. However I do expect a smaller bump for both as many bxp voters just wash their hands with the election and just not vote.

Given that Farage had whipped these people into a frenzy about Johnson's surrender deal and not the clean break they wanted, it will be interesting to see how that shakes out once the Tory manifesto is out.
 

JonnyDBrit

God and Anime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,085
on this, new voters are tracking way higher than in 2017. About double than 2017 so at this point so far.

1.2m new registered voters so far since Oct 28th. 65% under 35 (source)




2019 v 2017 totals (so far)

The last few days see big spikes

I really do hope that's people genuinely pissed off about the last few years that have come into voting age.
 

Lazlow

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,169
I really do hope that's people genuinely pissed off about the last few years that have come into voting age.

I'm not part of the demographic anymore so totally out of the loop but is there any signs of a solid movement among university-aged students organising and getting people involved in voting?
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,191

The Lib Dem "Labour really want Brexit!" tactic is working wonders it seems.

It's a mind numbingly stupid tactic in an election, Remain ain't happening without Labour getting into power. More and more of the remain voter base is realising this and as such regardless of their view of Labour are sucking it up.

Demonising Labour and simulateously trying argue how pro remain you are is a fundamentally contradictory view point.
 

Cow

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,628
There's is something about a twitter account called 'stats for lefties' I do not trust. I have been double checking the polls they post.

Also, this Tory broadcast on ITV is hilarious. They are desperately trying to make Boris look like a human.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,673
Got to love having a normal conversation with someone you know and they say that they'd happily vote Conservative if they were in England rather than NI. They used the arguments about how parts of the country are a mess because they are still apparently cleaning up after Labour and Labour would just muck things up again if they got back in. Wasn't quite sure how to react after that besides silently nodding.
 

Streamlined

alt account
Banned
Sep 16, 2019
243
There's is something about a twitter account called 'stats for lefties' I do not trust. I have been double checking the polls they post.

Also, this Tory broadcast on ITV is hilarious. They are desperately trying to make Boris look like a human.

It's just a leftie stat nerd looking at polls from that perspective. They're doing a good job highlighting some of the underlying trends with the polls that nobody else is doing.
 

Acorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,972
Scotland
Got to love having a normal conversation with someone you know and they say that they'd happily vote Conservative if they were in England rather than NI. They used the arguments about how parts of the country are a mess because they are still apparently cleaning up after Labour and Labour would just muck things up again if they got back in. Wasn't quite sure how to react after that besides silently nodding.
It's all been the land of honey and milk since 2010.
 

Masquerader

Banned
Nov 4, 2017
1,383
Got to love having a normal conversation with someone you know and they say that they'd happily vote Conservative if they were in England rather than NI. They used the arguments about how parts of the country are a mess because they are still apparently cleaning up after Labour and Labour would just muck things up again if they got back in. Wasn't quite sure how to react after that besides silently nodding.

Jeez, I can't even at that. Thank fuck my area might well just hate the Tories more than almost anywhere else on this island, pfft.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
The Lib Dem whisperers' ability to interpret Jo Swinson's repeated and unequivocal refusal to work with Corbyn at any time in any circumstance as a covert signal that actually she means the opposite, and at the same time act indignant when anyone doesn't take her 100% on her word that she won't do a deal with the Tories will never not be amusing.

I can safely say she won't do a deal with the Tories whether she wants to or not, her party won't let her. The Lib Dems have to have the MP's agreement, their Federal Council's agreement and their members agreement to enter any deal. Clegg barely got the members agreement in 2010, Swinson won't get it now after the experience of the coalition.

I actually hold out hope she won't be an MP in the next parliament. It's undersold down south but if the SNP get their vote out to anything close to 2015 levels she'd require a decent amount of Tory and Labour support to hold on.
 
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