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LL_Decitrig

User-Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,334
Sunderland
How would you even begin to prove someone saw a tweet and then voted for Trump because they saw that tweet? What are you talking about? And now I'm faux news because I'm pointing that out? Come on man. Let's be adults here.

I believe the people this case have been indicted for committing crimes. The question of how effective they were in achieving their intentions is immaterial. A dumb gang that gets caught trying to open a bank vault with inadequate tools is still treated according to the criminal intent.
 

chadskin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,013
I'm not really impressed with this at all. I was expecting something a little more substantial when I saw the thread title. What we have here is social media trolling = interfering in our elections. That's pretty weaksauce.

I'll wait to see what else this investigation turns up. It better be more substantive than this.
Of course you're not impressed with this.
 

EdibleKnife

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,723
It's called statistics, same way we can prove a ton of other things that are correlated.

Been around for awhile. Well understood, studied, respected.

It's not a single tweet, it's an army of tweets that are targeted specifically and tactically with specific, realizable, timely goals in mind. It was and continues to be a technical operation.
This. It isn't about just one tweet from xXxRussianAgentxXx that millions of Americans saw. It's about multiple curated tweets and other social media efforts disseminated into the US's own system of social media and unfiltered news coupled with concerted efforts by people like the alt-right to turn a single made up news item into a narrative preached as truth on national TV and out of the mouths of our very own politicians. You don't need to go to every single house in a city to poison the population. You just poison the water supply.
 

Acerac

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,218
Yeah l left out gerrymandering which is also a problem. As for the trolls, yes, I give US voters a little more credit than just reading random tweets and voting for Trump because of it. You cannot even begin to prove direct causation from reading a troll's tweet to influencing a vote. Shit, their budget couldve been a trillion dollars. Then you have to get into how many people saw the tweet or ad to begin with. I like to think Americans are a little more rationale and a lot less impressionable and malleable than some of us are giving them credit for. That's why this indictment is weak af. But there is more coming, so we'll see what happens.
Hell yes Americans are too mentally strong to be influenced by propaganda. Hell, go in to any thread about advertising and many members will proudly state how they would never be influenced by such things. They must be Americans, as we can not be influenced!
 
Jan 10, 2018
6,327
7rwSpeH.gif

Not sure if it helps, but he isn't
 

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,509
FIN
Surreal to think that this may be on point. If this is basement floor level stuff then what there is to come...
 

NullPointer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,197
Mars
How would you even begin to prove someone saw a tweet and then voted for Trump because they saw that tweet? What are you talking about? And now I'm faux news because I'm pointing that out? Come on man. Let's be adults here.
I guess that 9.5 billion in campaign ad spending* for the 2016 election cycle was just for kicks. Nobody could possibly prove that somebody who watches those commercials or reads those ads would vote for them.




* translator's note: "ad spending" means "speech" in the US.
 
We literally wouldn't be in this situation at all if this were true. Just this very week people are buying wholesale into the idea that the Florida Shooting was a liberal politician false flag operation because famous conspiracy theorist Alex Jones told them so. Americans, especially ones with power and privilege, are as malleable and impressionable as they need to be to buy into shit that ends up oppressing themselves and other populations of people in the first place.
I guess that 9.5 billion in campaign ad spending* for the 2016 election cycle was just for kicks. Nobody could possibly prove that somebody who watches those commercials or reads those ads would vote for them.




* translator's note: "ad spending" means "speech" in the US.
Hell yes Americans are too mentally strong to be influenced by propaganda. Hell, go in to any thread about advertising and many members will proudly state how they would never be influenced by such things. They must be Americans, as we can not be influenced!
I know I'm going out on a limb to give [strike]folk[/strike] ordinary American voters the benefit of the doubt here.

NullPointer, politicians spend that much but that includes a lot of campaigning and interaction with the public - town halls, rallies, etc. People get to ask questions, watch debates, watch interviews, etc. I don't think you can make an equivalency argument between all that campaigning and mere twitter trolling; but I get your point.
And you can prove the opposite?
Argumentum ad ignorantiam? No thanks.
It's called statistics, same way we can prove a ton of other things that are correlated.

Been around for awhile. Well understood, studied, respected.

It's not a single tweet, it's an army of tweets that are targeted specifically and tactically with specific, realizable, timely goals in mind. It was and continues to be a technical operation.
You still can't directly prove that causal pathway - see Russian troll tweet, become influenced by said tweet, vote for Trump because of tweet. Only way you'd know this is if someone self reports that. And correlation /= causation - they are two totally different things. Anyways, we prob shouldn't clog the thread on that one small disagreement. If you want to keep discussing it we can def do so over PM. Because LL_Decitrig is right, this is immaterial.
I believe the people this case have been indicted for committing crimes. The question of how effective they were in achieving their intentions is immaterial. A dumb gang that gets caught trying to open a bank vault with inadequate tools is still treated according to the criminal intent.
You're absolutely right. This discussion about effectiveness of the trolling is basically just a side bar between me and III-V. So I'll just end it here.



EDIT: Revised for clarity and formatting.
EDIT 2: More clarity
 
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Oct 31, 2017
9,642
Surreal to think that this may be on point. If this is basement floor level stuff then what there is to come...


Yeah. With Flynn, Manafort, Gates, and Papadopoulos were the opening shots with this being the follow up to just the initial volley, I imagine shit is going to start sliding down hill for a lot of people. The suspicion of this running deep within the GoP + affiliates/NRA, with how hard the right wing has been trying to PR/damage control every instance of explosive news, I can only imagine. My mind is definitely racing at the thoughts of where this is all going to go.
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
Expect Russia to clean out their offices and expose lots of wrongdoing to sow further chaos in our political landscape.
 

NullPointer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,197
Mars
NullPointer, politicians spend that much but that includes a lot of campaigning and interaction with the public - town halls, rallies, etc. People get to ask questions, watch debates, watch interviews, etc. I don't think you can make an equivalency argument between all that campaigning and mere twitter trolling; but I get your point.
I sincerely appreciate the benefit of the doubt, thanks :) Likewise, and will try to pay it forward in kind.

But to put things in focus, that 9.8 billion figure I mentioned is just the ad spending, which is on average roughly a third of total campaign spending.
 
Oct 30, 2017
4,190
So Watergate was ~72 people indicted/charged/plead? We're still under 20 here.

Every time the Mueller team unveils something, we had no idea about most of it before hand. We knew Flynn and Manafort were shady, but we didn't know the specifics and/or circumstances. We didn't know who George Papadopolas was or Rick Gates or Richard Pinedo were. We didn't know about half the stuff about these Russian agents indicted today despite every news org looking into it.
 
I sincerely appreciate the benefit of the doubt, thanks :) Likewise, and will try to pay it forward in kind.

But to put things in focus, that 9.8 billion figure I mentioned is just the ad spending, which is on average roughly a third of total campaign spending.
When I said "benefit of the doubt", I wasn't referring to you and the other guys I quoted, I was referring to American voters in general and their susceptibility to the tweets of Russian twitter trolls. I should've been more clear. I'll edit.
 

Host Samurai

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,240
What I find amazing is that so many Americans bought into Facebook bots. I've noticed fake Facebook profiles that started popping up since 2008. It's painfully obvious to see that a profile is fake.

3 Red Flags of a fake profile

  1. Pic of a really hot woman or of an object
  2. Either a very high friend count or very low friend count
  3. Only 1 profile pic. No pics with friends or family
 

chadskin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,013
I'm not really impressed with this at all. I was expecting something a little more substantial when I saw the thread title. What we have here is social media trolling = interfering in our elections. That's pretty weaksauce.

I'll wait to see what else this investigation turns up. It better be more substantive than this.
To expand, you've said this a couple of months ago:
However, this 'Russia hacked the elections' is becoming nonsense by default now. And people are getting fatigued on this, even in corporate media. The NSA has all of the US under mass surveillance and they can't find anything. We had two reports that were supposed to be definitive evidence that turned out to be laughable piles of garbage penned by interns. And we keep getting fake stories like the one CNN just apologized for, WaPo's Vermont grid hacking story, and now this story about 17 agencies agreeing to a Russian hack.

I think people NEED this story to be true for a couple reasons. Maybe many other folks are like my homegirl, who believes wholeheartedly in the American mythology (i.e. freedom, democracy, best country in the world) and cognitive dissonance occurs when you can't square how the country can elect someone like Trump without those values being somewhat compromised. Then, there are the people who really love Hillary who cannot accept that Trump actually won fair and square so believing the election was stolen is a coping mechanism. It's easier to believe Putin is an omnipotent and omnipresent demigod capable of all things, even remote controlling Americans in the poll booths to vote for Trump. Perhaps that was how they hacked? Jokes aside, might still take them another 18 months to get over this.

I just want proof of those allegations. Taking intelligence community word for it is just not gonna happen. If they really had something, it would've leaked it. It would've been published. They can let the public know beyond the silly innuendo, speculation, and witch hunt stories - 'oh, you talked to a Russian national 18 years ago, you're working for the Russians!' ad nauseum.

And we wouldn't have to get all these fake stories to double down and supplement an allegation that's reported as truth but have absolutely no proof of. There's so much to fight Trump on but this is like the only angle people want to pursue.

Isn't a 37-page document revealing the sources and methods of how the US tracked Russia's efforts to meddle in the US election for more than two years the kind of proof that supports the intelligence community's assessment from January 2017? Which, specifically, said:
We assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election, the consistent goals of which were to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.

Aren't all of those conclusions reflected in the indictments Mueller issued today? That Russia wanted to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, that Russia wanted to denigrate Clinton and harm her electability and developed a clear preference for Trump? Why, then, are you not impressed with this latest news?
 
Oct 31, 2017
9,642
Is it just the lighting, or does Hannity look like he's trying to emulate his orange idol's tanning style?

LOL I thought the exact same thing. Contrasting his admittedly blurry hands in that pic to his face, it definitely seems like it. Like a warped clown makeup, which is so fitting.

Right after Trump made those tweets about his 'bigger nuclear button', I played this scene from Batman '89 over and over and now I can't stop seeing it. Instead of cake white, these jokers' clown paint of choice is bronzer orange. Ayyy :-(

 
Oct 30, 2017
4,190
To expand, you've said this a couple of months ago:


Isn't a 37-page document revealing the sources and methods of how the US tracked Russia's efforts to meddle in the US election for more than two years the kind of proof that supports the intelligence community's assessment from January 2017? Which, specifically, said:


Aren't all of those conclusions reflected in the indictments Mueller issued today? That Russia wanted to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, that Russia wanted to denigrate Clinton and harm her electability and developed a clear preference for Trump? Why, then, are you not impressed with this latest news?

"If they had something, it would have leaked by now" is by far the dumbest thing I keep reading.
 
To expand, you've said this a couple of months ago:


Isn't a 37-page document revealing the sources and methods of how the US tracked Russia's efforts to meddle in the US election for more than two years the kind of proof that supports the intelligence community's assessment from January 2017? Which, specifically, said:
Hey, chadskin ! Hope that wasn't meant to be a "gotcha"! lol. Yeah, I've since changed my mind as more information has came out since I made that comment. It's really, literally, that simple. No need to go down this road. We're not on the old site anymore so I hope you don't feel like you need to be adversarial towards me. But I appreciate you putting in the effort; must've taken a bit of time to login and search all that post history and I'm always flattered by that.
Aren't all of those conclusions reflected in the indictments Mueller issued today? That Russia wanted to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, that Russia wanted to denigrate Clinton and harm her electability and developed a clear preference for Trump? Why, then, are you not impressed with this latest news?
I will say I think US politicians didn't need the help of Russia to do that, but I'll save that convo for the appropriate thread since I delved into that a bit already here.
"If they had something, it would have leaked by now" is by far the dumbest thing I keep reading.
Hey, now. Be nice.

But that's how I felt at the time.
 
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Oct 30, 2017
4,190
The indictment is yet another reminder of something that's been made clear over the past several months repeatedly: Mueller and his team know much more than is public, and they are unusual in Washington in being fully capable of keeping secrets.

Recall that Mueller's team was able to keep the indictment and eventual plea deal of Trump foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos secret for three months before the court documents were released in October 2017. Likewise, while the indictment of the Internet Research Agency is dated Feb. 16, 2018, the criminal information in Pinedo's case bears a signature from the defendant dated Feb. 2. Not even a whisper of Pinedo's indictment had reached the press before Friday. Indeed, journalists today were scrambling to figure out who he is.
 

Polaroid_64

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,920
Waiting for the president of the United States to slap sanctions on Russia, or at least enforce the ones he is supposed to.....

any minute now.
 
Aren't all of those conclusions reflected in the indictments Mueller issued today? That Russia wanted to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, that Russia wanted to denigrate Clinton and harm her electability and developed a clear preference for Trump? Why, then, are you not impressed with this latest news?
Sorry, I completely missed the bolded. I find today's indictments to be quite lackluster because of the original claim of hacking the election, hacking the DNC server, and/or somehow directly interfering in the election apparatus. Spreading propaganda over social media is nothing major or special, it's par for the course - every nation does this, from hasbara troll farms to US' own Cuban twitter. States do this to one another. I don't condone it, but it's hardly major. So, meh, I'm not impressed.

What I want to see from this investigation is a direct link between Trump and the Kremlin - no speculation, no mere smoke - but fire itself... For us to have waited so long for Mueller to give us something, and for it to be just this... is very underwhelming to me.
 
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skullmuffins

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,444
Sorry, I completely missed the bolded. I find today's indictments to be quite lackluster because of the original claim of hacking the election, hacking the DNC server, and/or somehow directly interfering in the election apparatus. Spreading propaganda over social media is nothing major or special, it's par for the course - every nation does this, from hasbara troll farms to US' own Cuban twitter. States do this to one another. I don't condone it, but it's hardly major. So, meh, I'm not impressed.

What I want to see from this investigation is a direct link between Trump and the Kremlin - no speculation, no mere smoke - but fire itself... For us to have waited so long for Mueller to give us something, and for it to be just this... is very underwhelming to me.
fwiw last we heard the DNC hack was being investigated by a separate team at the FBI - Mueller and the DOJ agreed it would be best to keep that aspect of the investigation with the original agents & prosecutors. If & when they bring charges on that front (and it was reported months ago that they have enough to indict at least six russians) it probably won't come from the special counsel's office.
 

stew

Member
Dec 2, 2017
4,189
Mueller is trying to not get fired by Trump, it's just the beginning.
Every time the Mueller team unveils something, we had no idea about most of it before hand. We knew Flynn and Manafort were shady, but we didn't know the specifics and/or circumstances. We didn't know who George Papadopolas was or Rick Gates or Richard Pinedo were. We didn't know about half the stuff about these Russian agents indicted today despite every news org looking into it.
Good reminder.
 

FeistyBoots

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,506
Southern California
I know I'm going out on a limb to give [strike]folk[/strike] ordinary American voters the benefit of the doubt here.

NullPointer, politicians spend that much but that includes a lot of campaigning and interaction with the public - town halls, rallies, etc. People get to ask questions, watch debates, watch interviews, etc. I don't think you can make an equivalency argument between all that campaigning and mere twitter trolling; but I get your point.

Argumentum ad ignorantiam? No thanks.

You still can't directly prove that causal pathway - see Russian troll tweet, become influenced by said tweet, vote for Trump because of tweet. Only way you'd know this is if someone self reports that. And correlation /= causation - they are two totally different things. Anyways, we prob shouldn't clog the thread on that one small disagreement. If you want to keep discussing it we can def do so over PM. Because LL_Decitrig is right, this is immaterial.

You're absolutely right. This discussion about effectiveness of the trolling is basically just a side bar between me and III-V. So I'll just end it here.



EDIT: Revised for clarity and formatting.
EDIT 2: More clarity

Try edit #3, but first get some actual clarity.
 
fwiw last we heard the DNC hack was being investigated by a separate team at the FBI - Mueller and the DOJ agreed it would be best to keep that aspect of the investigation with the original agents & prosecutors. If & when they bring charges on that front (and it was reported months ago that they have enough to indict at least six russians) it probably won't come from the special counsel's office.
Ok, this is good info. Thanks for this.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,996
South Carolina
Expect Russia to clean out their offices and expose lots of wrongdoing to sow further chaos in our political landscape.

Makes sense. Russian agents I've heard cut bait easily too. Not cleanly as we've seen, but easily. :D

So Watergate was ~72 people indicted/charged/plead? We're still under 20 here.

Watergate, as the saying goes, was a 3rd rate burglary.

What I find amazing is that so many Americans bought into Facebook bots. I've noticed fake Facebook profiles that started popping up since 2008. It's painfully obvious to see that a profile is fake.

3 Red Flags of a fake profile

  1. Pic of a really hot woman or of an object
  2. Either a very high friend count or very low friend count
  3. Only 1 profile pic. No pics with friends or family

Like, as someone who's been online since a teen in 1995, I ALWAYS knew people lied on the internet and some would have ulterior motives. I seriously am debating internally whether or not it was the one-two punch of smartphones and social media that just let alot of newbs in that never actually socialized before on-line and just went gormless, all in a system that made them ripe for the taking.
 

Taki

Attempt to circumvent a ban with an alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,308
what stupid spy movie timeline am i living in
 

IPSF

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
345
Putins been fucking with all the Western elections: Brexit, France, Germany. It just worked spectacularly well in the US. I don't think it was a direct retaliation for anything you guys did.
 

Deleted member 8561

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
11,284
How would you even begin to prove someone saw a tweet and then voted for Trump because they saw that tweet? What are you talking about? And now I'm faux news because I'm pointing that out? Come on man. Let's be adults here.

The fact you're making literally no effort to put any thought in the process of how such an operation works, the rational behind it or the actual indictment speaks volumes.

You're talking about years of social media influence that aimed to sway public perception of the masses. Millions of online accounts all creating a single narrative where actual voters saw and became influenced by.

One little news story gets out and instantly it's trending on twitter with a bunch of fake liberal personas spreading "doubt", which is then compounded by real people constantly get barraged with thousands of fake view points from people who seemingly share their own political ideology.
 
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