Probably. These midterms will likely be a lot like Virginia. Republicans will have turnout that's a bit higher than normal only to be swamped as Democrats shatter records.
US PoliERA 2018 |OT10| McConnell is "mule piss"
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
- Start date
- Status
Probably. These midterms will likely be a lot like Virginia. Republicans will have turnout that's a bit higher than normal only to be swamped as Democrats shatter records.
Dems won 334 House seats in the 1936 election. Anything less than that would be a disappointment.
OP
OP
The Canadian House of Commons has 338 seats. Anything less than that would be a disappointment
And over 70 seats in the Senate.
We will NEVER see that level of political domination ever again.
OK, new bar. In the 1993 Liberal landslide, the Progressive Conservative Party went from a majority to holding two seats. Total. Good for fifth place.
I'll be disappointed if the Republicans have more than that.
IIRC 2014 was a near historical low of turnout so I think that's a foregone conclusion.
Again, I wouldn't mind seeing these numbers compared to 2012, or really, a the last three or four midterms.
Maybe another Great Depression caused by republican policy.
They may be too brainwashed now to see the cause though.
This is Utah we're talking about. Romney has this by a land slide...
So can we officially say that the tide has turned on the district level polling back to being really good for Dems?
Nope. Keep pushing. Keep being pragmatic and keep your wits about you. That's all good energy. The country is at stake and we need to balance worry against defeatism. But it isn't really good for Dems until the day after proves it.
Their last poll was 48-40 Miller. It's narrowed.
Only Monmouth ever had him ahead.
Probably jostled a cop.
I agree. It's not OK to assume tho.
The magnitude of the clobbering was just astounding.
FDR beat Alf Landon 523-8, losing only Maine and Vermont, with a popular vote of 60.8%-36.5%. In a popular case study in intro statistics classes, the highly respected Literary Digest poll predicted a landslide victory for Landon.
The House results were Democrats 334, Republicans 88, Progressive 8, Farmer-Labor 5
The Senate results were Democrats 74, Republicans 17, Famer-Labor 2, Progressive 1, Independent 1
Look at the polling. We're not the complacent ones.
Or is my talking about how we're not complacent per polls another example of being complacent?
The BlueMidterm subreddit had for over a year been filled with endless amounts of "don't get complacent, don't be happy, work like we're behind, remember 2016!" etc until FINALLY people got sick and tired of it and now that kind of stuff is instantly Downvoted away.
Because it's not inspiring, it's annoying.
You just single-handedly destroyed our chances in November with this comment we're going to get five votes nationally now smh
I really hope you're being sarcastic.
People get more excited when they think they're ahead, not less. They want to be part of the victory. It's motivating.
Every poll from every outlet shows sky-high Democratic enthusiasm. You think the enthusiasm will vanish... if people read about the enthusiasm.
Since you'll probably actually answer my question, do you think the tide has finally turned back to the Democrats on the district level polling?
So the reason Republican turnout is bigger then normal under an anti Republican wave is the cult shit
Why can't it be sub 2014 levels like it logically should
Why can't it be sub 2014 levels like it logically should
Early voting starts for me next week and I couldn't be more enthusiastic to go. I've been waiting for this moment for two years, and I'm sure there are plenty of others wanting to end this national nightmare.
Hell, even if for some reason things don't go our way next month, I'll be back again every two years to try to right the ship no matter what.
Hell, even if for some reason things don't go our way next month, I'll be back again every two years to try to right the ship no matter what.
I'll tentatively say yes. ME-02 went from a modest Poliquin lead to damn near even, with a slight Golden lead. Ojeda gained on Miller and could pull off an upset. We're currently up and will probably finish ahead or close in FL-15 and VA-05, universally rated Lean R (maybe even Likely at a few outlets). We haven't fallen behind in the repolls of any district besides MN-08, and Nate acknowledged that one's an outlier.
Donna Shalala will finish ahead in FL-27, so people can finally stop fucking bedwetting about it. We're not going to blow an open D+5 seat in a year like this.
So yes, it's been a good few days.
Naivety?
Clickbaity headlines in the post-newspaper world?
Crooked Editors?
Access journalism being a leash?
Whatever it is in any case, it is an injury to this country.
My Colorado ballot was LONG this year. But, I got it, and filled it out tonight. Will drop it off tomorrow, and hopefully Walker Stapleton and Mike Coffman will go away (no doubt to nice, comfy lobbying jobs).
Remember also that Mariah is blue on her album cover and has a song about how Democrats are going to go the distance.
I don't think it's a coincidence that we start recovering in polling around the same time. Mariah bump.
I don't think it's a coincidence that we start recovering in polling around the same time. Mariah bump.
It's hard to prove cause and effect but many of us were predicting this would happen. Particularly given the pattern we were seeing in terms of where the GOP was polling better it seemed like a Kavanaugh bump which was destined to fade.
That's because Panhandle is reliably red. If it were metro Tampa or Orlando you can bet Rick Scott would have dragged his fees.
Oh yeah. I downvote that all the time. One dude lost his mind yesterday after that r-favored poll came out against Gillum. Had a complete meltdown because everyone was over it.
Jesus, even a 60 senate democrat supermajority sounds like a dream and FDR got 74.
This is also the time the bottom falls out of the party about to be swept by the wave.
It was somewhat illusory because a lot of them were racist southerners.
I was being sarcastic but the red wave bs by Trump was followed by a correction. I want zero correction.
Naivety?
Clickbaity headlines in the post-newspaper world?
Crooked Editors?
Access journalism being a leash?
Whatever it is in any case, it is an injury to this country.
What's this from? It's true as fuck.
text message from @JeffFlake late tonight: "Just read your story. This is reprehensible behavior."
In response to this story:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powe...b92bd0-d306-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html
Carly will win us the Senate
And t swizzle to a lesser extent
White house correspondents dinner
The one when a woman was too dirty and hard on Trump, Sarah sanders, and the media
Looks like Michelle Wolff's White House Correspondence Dinner speech.
From Michelle Wolff's set at the last corespondents dinner.
- Status