I think Manchin has that seat til he retires. He's just too entrenched in WV.
US PoliERA 2018 |OT11| The Hunt for Blue November
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Dems flipped 30 seats, which is what prognosticators had them at. The Senate is the real massacre :/
Low I think. Hyde-Smith is just bog standard generic Republican as far as I can tell. She got the highest vote percentage despite having a Republican sapping votes from her. It was McDaniel who was beatable in a run-off.
Like if Doug Jones had faced Luther Strange, he'd have lost decisively.
slighty better now that it's not a race that control of the senate doesn't hinge on it (turnout may be relaxed on the R side)but still doubtful. it's Mississippi and there's a not a child molester running.
There is literally nothing to support this thought.
Regardless, whomever the democrats pick for president, it absolutely better be somebody who appeals to MI/WI/PA. Without them, Trump loses. I still say Biden, who is beloved in the Midwest, is probably the best choice for that, although I think Harris can still get the job done.
Next D president strategy should be to take all of October 2022 off and campaign.
it's the double-whammy of coulda-had-it in 2016 and needing to get it in 2022.
Or the lurch to Trump was temporary and this was the snapback.
I'm feeling the same way as I did after the 2016 results. Riddle me, how the fuck could Republican senators win in a possibly +9 Dem wave? I am so worried about the next SC now it's unbearable.
There's actually more long-term hope in Texas and Georgia than Florida. Not so much in the near term, but Dems need to kick things up a gear in those states now or they're going to lose out when the iron heats up.
Florida is still a hot retirement spot so it will only continue to get older, whiter, crazier, and more racist.
Texas and Georgia have been trying to draw in skilled labor, and much like how Virginia saw, that brings in liberals.
It's not going to be easy or pretty though. This isn't a battle won purely by demographics. NC also was going blue, then the NC GOP decided they didn't like democracy after all. And I mean, well. . . look at what Georgia just did.
Thing is, they wouldn't be pulling such stunts if they didn't know they were losing.
Florida is still a hot retirement spot so it will only continue to get older, whiter, crazier, and more racist.
Texas and Georgia have been trying to draw in skilled labor, and much like how Virginia saw, that brings in liberals.
It's not going to be easy or pretty though. This isn't a battle won purely by demographics. NC also was going blue, then the NC GOP decided they didn't like democracy after all. And I mean, well. . . look at what Georgia just did.
Thing is, they wouldn't be pulling such stunts if they didn't know they were losing.
looking at the AZ senate tally, it's wild to me that instant runoff voting (ie preferential voting) isn't a western standard -- it seems like a no brainer.
Florida is so frustrating because it actually was a very close end tally... it has to be considered a swing state still, especially with Amendment 4 passing.
I said it beforehand, but I think Dems really need to run a Hispanic/Cuban candidate to win statewide and motivate South Florida.
I said it beforehand, but I think Dems really need to run a Hispanic/Cuban candidate to win statewide and motivate South Florida.
Maine has it for statewide races! I think there is at least one other state that has it too.
Yup. It feels worse for Florida Dems because they couldn't be part of the nationwide wins in state legislatures, governors' mansions and the Senate. But we know how it is already down here with who is in power.
They lost a net of around 3 seats, I think? That's not a massacre. 2014 was a massacre.
This was a bad map for Democrats all the way; I think if Hillary were president, the losses would have been deeper simply due to the opposing party winning more in the midterms.
Yeah, we're only ~222 now because some races have yet to be called. We'll end somewhere between 226-230 - in other words, a gain of 30-35 seats, just as Cook and Sabato and everyone predicted.
It was a wave in the House.
We didn't 'barely' win the house. We flipped a ton of seats (consistent with a wave) in a very gerrymandered map.
I swear people love to bitch about gerrymandering, except if it gets in the way of gnashing teeth about Democrats
Ruby red map this year. Wait till we have something neutral. Losing Senate Seats was not ideal but I think we can recover. Just hope nobody else dies or retires from the SC...
I think it's fair to say that a black man being on the ballot for governor in Florida lost the entire state this time around, and that is soul-crushing in 2018 America. How does the color of a person drive people to the polls to vote against them in 2018 America? I feel like this country is irreparably broken.
I don't think I really paid attention to a midterm like this before. I guess the big 2006 flip was also fairly slow to cement?
No, but I did just wake up. I'm glad that at the state level it sounds like we really flipped the script.
These seats were on borrowed time after coasting through 2006 and 2012, the latter with Obama's help
I'm really glad that we are taking back the House and finally there will be a check on Trump.
It just blows my mind how close the senate races were and of course the GOP squeaked out a win basically every time. It's just not fair. I wasn't expecting us to win it back but we seriously underperformed and it is very hard to process that and the future implications for 2020 as well.
Also I think it's wrong to call PA a swing state, 16 was a fluke. Wolf and Casey absolutely curb stomped the GOP. Trump isn't winning here again.
It just blows my mind how close the senate races were and of course the GOP squeaked out a win basically every time. It's just not fair. I wasn't expecting us to win it back but we seriously underperformed and it is very hard to process that and the future implications for 2020 as well.
Also I think it's wrong to call PA a swing state, 16 was a fluke. Wolf and Casey absolutely curb stomped the GOP. Trump isn't winning here again.
This is true, and Indiana is getting to be the same way.
It was more like a flash in the pan; the Dems pissed away their majorities in a mere four years and to this day have little idea what they screwed up.
Don't get me wrong, gridlock will be a wonderful change from driving full speed into a cliff face, for however long it lasts.
That's what I noticed: Gillum was over-performing Hillary in a lot of places, but not in Miami-Dade. There is a huge Latino population here, but a significant percentage of that is also older Cubans, so the Latino vote is more split in Florida. Gillum ran a good campaign (which makes it sting more since DeSantis basically ran a Fox News campaign in the primaries), but it wasn't enough this time around.
There's a lot to be happy about nation-wide, and hey, Florida's two competitive House races went Democratic, and some good amendments passed on offshore drilling and restoring people's rights after serving their time.
I'm still not panicking over the 2020 Senate chances. A good candidate and a few lucky breaks can overcome almost anything--outside of Beto (who did great for being in Texas), I just don't think the democrat candidates were that great in states that are becoming more polarized.
Came for the doom, stayed for the gloom. A good, but not great night, a few nice surprises like WI and KS. Have to make sure the dems stay on this trajectory and not pack it in again.
No, I meant the results coming in.
Having the House is fucking huge, just for oversight alone, let alone gridlock.
I know I'm looking too far in the future, but for the Senate...
2020 we have chances in ME, NC, IA, CO, and AZ (outside chance at MT). Then will have to defend NH and AL.
2022 we have chances in WI, PA, FL, OH, and NC. Then will have to defend NH and NV.
Need to gain +4 or +5 out of those. Hard to say what the political environment will be by those times or if we will even exist, but I think those are the baseline.
2020 we have chances in ME, NC, IA, CO, and AZ (outside chance at MT). Then will have to defend NH and AL.
2022 we have chances in WI, PA, FL, OH, and NC. Then will have to defend NH and NV.
Need to gain +4 or +5 out of those. Hard to say what the political environment will be by those times or if we will even exist, but I think those are the baseline.
One other thing for 2020:
Nearly 100 women were elected last night. If you don't think a woman should be on the presidential ballot in 2020, you're out of your mind.
Also, in case anyone wants an example of just how racist rural white America is:
This is a huge problem going forward, and their children are being raised to believe the exact same things.
Nearly 100 women were elected last night. If you don't think a woman should be on the presidential ballot in 2020, you're out of your mind.
Also, in case anyone wants an example of just how racist rural white America is:
This is a huge problem going forward, and their children are being raised to believe the exact same things.
Yeah, they pissed away those majorities by saving the economy from a depression and extending healthcare to millions of people. Just played Congressional Candyland for four years. It couldn't be they lost their majorities because racist white America went apoplectic at a black president. Uh uh.
Anyway, Republicans have their leadership elections on the 15th. Watching them pick a minority leader will be high comedy.
We should have at least won Florida because it's not Ruby red. Sinema losing by a handful of votes is gut wrenching. Donnelly, McCaskill and Heitkamp losing is disappointing but not completely shocking. Everything that could have gone wrong for Senate, did.
Now we have to fucking deal with Rick Scott in US Congress and his 2024 presidential run. Should have ended his career tonight.
50/50 seems like best case scenario for 2020 and that SUCKS. If we could've only won one more seat last night... AL is going to complicate things too
The offshore drilling amendment passed?! God I'm glad
Rick Scott is Scott Walker 2.0. He'll fold in the national spotlight.
Calling people dumb says a lot about who you are. And Yurope? Lol
I hope one day you realize how wrong you are, but by the tone of the post I think you already know but are too angry and frustrated too acknowledge it.
Don't bother with a reply, I don't like rudeness
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Good luck winning in 2022 when only the swamp nazis vote. Thanks shillary
A lot can change in two years. Hell, two years ago one of the most qualified candidates ever was defeated by a racist idiot. Don't underestimate the likelihood of stupid, bigoted voters doing stupid, bigoted things.
Looking up 538s forecasts, Gillum and Nelson were both 7 in 9 chances of winning. Mentally, I really relaxed and thought Gillum was in. DeSantis being so bad at running really solidified for me. For a state that doesn't affect to me, I'm really kind of devastated at the outcome.
It stings because I just moved to Miami from out-of-state in time to register and vote. I did a day of canvassing in Coral Gables and it was amazing how many Hispanic GOP supporters I ran into. I honestly was a little surprised Curbelo and Salazar both lost due to how many of their signs I saw up all over the place.
Unless trumps still president
2022 would probably still better no way the economy survives that long
Those two loses sting. It definitely put a damper on the night.
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