US PoliEra 2019 |OT10| Go Absent Yourself
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I don't think this is so much a trial balloon, as it is a reality that no one in the party has come to grips with yet: Trump's declining mental state isn't going to hold up at debates. It barely holds up at bubble-comfort rallies, he'd fall to pieces into a slurred mess at an actual debate where he was challenged.
Only way out is to not play but I don't think that's a good plan.
I figured he'd do at least one just because it will be so easy to campaign on "Trump is afraid to face me, how can he possibly debate world leaders if he is too afraid to debate me?" etc etc, but considering Trump's noticeable mental and cognitive decline, I now think he's almost certain to skip them all
I'm... not sure this would even be a bad thing for us if Biden's the nominee.
It's crazy how it went from looking like we were heading for a hung parliament or a slim Tory majority (or a small chance of a Labour majority) to a historic Tory majority in reality.
I understand that the Conservatives were favored to win, but like this? Shit.
I understand that the Conservatives were favored to win, but like this? Shit.
Of course the most important vote of the year happens on the biggest day of the year for my job. Of course.
People have been predicting this for a while in this thread.
Was it really looking like this? Was polling actually showing this?
As a possibility. They didn't look dire, I should say. From just the one's I've seen. If they predicted a Conservative blow out, I missed it.
This would be good for Biden if he's the nom, probably less so for Warren. Biden's very good 1on1 in interviews, bad in debates.
The UK results could be encouraging for Democrats in the US.
The Conservative Party consistently led Labor, Boris (while unpopular) was more popular than Corbyn, etc.
In the US, all the main Democratic candidates have better favorables than Trump, and in head to heads have been constantly shown to beat Trump. Trump while 'favored' due to his incumbency status, has increasingly shown all the signs of a one-term President.
TLDR: Polling always showed Boris beating Corbyn, the actual result was bigger. If that follows Stateside, someone like Biden would win bigly.
Edit: realignment has fucked Labor pretty bad. Guess what? realignment is fucking Republicans in the suburbs pretty bad.
The Conservative Party consistently led Labor, Boris (while unpopular) was more popular than Corbyn, etc.
In the US, all the main Democratic candidates have better favorables than Trump, and in head to heads have been constantly shown to beat Trump. Trump while 'favored' due to his incumbency status, has increasingly shown all the signs of a one-term President.
TLDR: Polling always showed Boris beating Corbyn, the actual result was bigger. If that follows Stateside, someone like Biden would win bigly.
Edit: realignment has fucked Labor pretty bad. Guess what? realignment is fucking Republicans in the suburbs pretty bad.
The prediction was around ~+38 or so tory seats. A hung parliment was just barely within the realm of possibility.
Yeah, assuming Biden is the nomination, I don't see this playing out the way Trump thinks it will.
Yeah polling showed a double digit Tory win. We got a double digit Tory win. Maybe a bit on the higher end but still within MoE.
I think this is something that has yet to have a reckoning, but I think some people (and candidates) are in it more to witness the debate "fight" against Trump than perhaps be a sure vote or care about wanting Trump out. If Trump skips the debates I think that only helps the Democrats in terms of voting turnout on both sides.
Thing is, Trump will just demand equal time for his 1 on 1 with Sean Hannity or some shit that will be on every major network too
Polls also had the Torries winning around the amount they are
It´s up to his staff to give him a proper briefing of some world leaders. It´s the same with Lula, who´s a trash candidate at this point in his life. Bernie doesn´t need to show solidarity to everyone on the left.
I'm an elf for some lawyers who want to know what their annual bonus will be.
Except 2010 gave the GOP just one chamber of Congress. This gives the Tories everything.
A Biden Trump debate would be way more "black and white" then any primary debate anyways. it's not varying levels of support for a specific policy it's "yes" or "no"
This is way worse. In 2010, Dems got destroyed... but only lost the House. They still had the Senate and the Presidency.
Labor has nothing. Boris has free reign to do as he pleases. The equivalent would be closer to 2016 than anything.
A worse version of 2016.
He's been cackling nonstop since 2016. it's bad white noise now. lol.
I was comparing it to the House because it's pretty much equivalent to the House of Commons - based on population, individual constituencies, majoritarian in nature. The only difference is that it merges the legislative and executive branches - the PM and cabinet form the executive branch - whereas our House lies solely in the legislative branch. But the electoral mechanisms are similar.
Which is their goal: to scare us as they're not in a good position to pitch a comeback at all.
Trying to tire us out. Trying to scare us. Trying to destroy enough of the institutions. Trying to smear LE/IC/etc agencies that have power over them. Etc. Etc. Etc.
But they don't LOOK confident doing it. Bleary-eyed, talking out of both sides of their mouths in rapid succession, obstructing more and more legislation as either passing or denying House bills is suicide for their majority, actively choosing the protection of known Russian Intelligence black propaganda as it's the only thing left with no overlap of the truth, losing elections, terrible demographics getting worse for them, jailing of their cut-outs, bagmen, fixers, mob lawyers, and handlers...the list goes on.
Probably the bitter optimist in me, but it's still ours to lose to me...as long as we dont just let them.
Speaking of scared:
Perhaps they need a new sunflower savior...
I mean, forget how he ever stayed in there so long, is there any chance he's going to step down now or?
We can finally have our own version of the empty chair -
Just a gentle reminder -
Foundations of Geopolitics - Wikipedia
Tough to see parallel in any year. This seems like an actual trial run for Brexit this time, can't say what's going to happen or how people will actually react once it gets moving for real.
From 2010, two years after that Democrats won the Presidency again.
Two years after that, congress basically abandoned the President over ebola and his relative unpopularity.
Two years after that half the Democratic electorate stayed home.
Two years after that they rushed back in to participate in Congressional AND State elections for the first time in a very long time.
Two years after that, voters in the Democratic party insisted on an open primary with more representative participants and less influence from establishment superdelegates. So far, more often than not they've been going with the most establishment-like, least-successful presidential campaigner. Huh.
Also our version of the climate debate in the UK last week. Boris didn't show up, so they had melting ice sculptures in his place.
am I imagining seeing this exact same thing a few months ago?
The numbers for Labor had been against them for a while now, a lot due to an unpopular leader and realignment going against them. Sound familiar?
A repeat of what we saw in the UK would see Trump out on his ass.
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