NPR: As Hurricane Relief Stalls In D.C., Trump To Rally Base In Florida Panhandle
President Trump will hold his first 2020 Florida political rally since the 2018 elections on Wednesday, and he's doing it in the Panhandle, the heart of his base in the state.
But the region is facing setbacks because of a federal funding shortfall after Hurricane Michael last fall that threatens to dampen enthusiasm.
"As much as Bay County votes Republican, we don't need a political rally right now," said Bay County Commissioner Philip Griffitts, a Republican. Trump's rally will be in Panama City, which is in Bay County. "We need some good news from the federal government," he said.
Florida is crucial to Trump's reelection chances in 2020. Without Florida, there is virtually no path for his victory. Trump's campaign and Republicans in the state are feeling good about their chances. After all, in a wave year for Democrats in 2018, Republicans were able to win the governorship with a candidate who ran as unapologetically pro-Trump.
In that campaign, Republican Ron DeSantis defeated Andrew Gillum, a Democrat endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who identifies as a democratic socialist. That campaign is expected to serve as an example for the president's messaging strategy to win the state, trying to paint any Democrat who runs against him as a "socialist."
That anti-socialist message, the campaign believes, will appeal in South Florida to those with roots in Venezuela and Cuba. Trump has backed that up as president with hard-line policy stances toward the governments of those countries.
Still, this is Florida. On average, it has been the closest state in the last five presidential elections on average, and Trump only won the state by a little over a percentage point in 2016.
While many of his supporters don't blame him for the lack of funding for Michael recovery, he can't afford to lose any support in a state this close, especially in the Panhandle, where he got about 10% of his total statewide vote out of the 18 counties in that area.
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Several Florida lawmakers are saying they feel as if Michael has become the "forgotten" storm.
That's despite Trump declaring after Michael hit, "We're doing a lot, more than anybody would have ever done."
The Federal Emergency Management Agency last month touted that it had provided $1.1 billion in funding to the Panhandle with almost $1 billion going directly to survivors. Officials on the ground, however, are frustrated with the agency's denial of claims and the slowness of aid. Bay County has seen 33,000 denials, for example.
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The president's path to reelection remains a narrow one, and he needs Florida's 29 electoral votes. Trump won the state by just 1.2 percentage points, or about 113,000 votes.
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Bay County went for Trump with 71% of the vote. That was one of the highest percentages of any large county in the state. Bay also saw the second-largest increase in Republican votes in the Panhandle from 2012 to 2016. Trump got about 5,300 more votes than Romney four years earlier in Bay, a 9% increase. Across Florida, only Santa Rosa County saw a bigger GOP vote increase.
Facing a reelection bid with Democrats fired up to run against him, Trump is going to need to persuade virtually every one of those voters to come out to support him again.