And what about the suburbs that swung to Dems massively starting in 2016?
US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
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And what about the suburbs that swung to Dems massively starting in 2016?
I have wondered for so long who he was referring to.
Now I know.
No one's saying definitively that youth will win the election. They're saying that old Democrats will vote for Bernie because (1) old people don't stay home and (2) voting patterns get set very early. These people have voted Democratic for decades. They'll vote for Bernie.
We also have data showing that 80%+ of Romney/Clinton voters will support whomever we nominate because they've basically become Democrats, and Sanders might be able to win a small but significant of Obama/Trump voters in the Rust Belt.
If Bernie's main base of support is the most unreliable group of voters then yeah his GE prospects aren't looking great
And I can't imagine what that means for control of Congress
And I can't imagine what that means for control of Congress
"He maybe a socialist, had a heart attack, and is old, but I'd rather have him than Cheeto Mussolini!"
Well he only beats Trump by 1 point in the swing state poll but Biden is up by 8 points.. Sanders looks like hard mode to me.
I felt like Bloomberg would have appeal in CA. Somebody needs to get these shit comments on the air in an ad stat.
Here's that poll formatted:
Political Polls on Twitter
“#California @surveyUSA Poll: Sanders 25% Bloomberg 21% Biden 15% Buttigieg 12% Warren 9% Klobuchar/Steyer 6%”twitter.com
Bernie needs to create a buffer by running up CA, otherwise, I don't see how they're all not within fighting distance for the delegate lead.
what happened to "polls that combine multiple states are bad" (except in this case it's actually even worse because it's a subset of a national poll instead)
Bern, Bide, Butt, and Bloom, are the worst boy band to grace the airwaves. All the talent was lost when Beto and Book went independent
A recurring pattern with Biden since... well, since he's been in national politics, is that when voting begins his support crumbles and he always underperforms relative to his polling.
He is incapable of generating any excitement whatsoever. Bernie is drawing massive crowds, and yes that ability to turn out supporters helped Trump beat Hillary in 2016.
Also worth noting that Trump's highest share of the vote in the H2H matchups is 46%... his exact share from 2016.
G. Elliott Morris estimates we need a PV margin of 2.5% - slightly better than Hillary - to win the electoral college. All the major contenders achieve that margin and then some in the poll
I don't think a 52% Democrat/46% Trump/2% third parties scenario is unlikely.
G. Elliott Morris estimates we need a PV margin of 2.5% - slightly better than Hillary - to win the electoral college. All the major contenders achieve that margin and then some in the poll
I don't think a 52% Democrat/46% Trump/2% third parties scenario is unlikely.
People will overlook anything if they get to fret. Seriously, anxiety makes you overlook things and stress unnecessarily.
It's not so much over 65 as it is the millenial and younger / boomer and older split.
Well, we call it boomers vs. millenials, but the actual dividing line is when you entered the work force in relation to the Lesser Depression. Which mostly cleaves on boomer/Gen X lines, but theres some wriggle room, especially at the oldest part of millenials.
They really are fundamentally different sociologically, economically, and politically. The younger cohort has much less trust in society's institutions, including capitalism, is less skeptical of socialism, is more authoritarian and dismissive of the rule of law. Lots of important sociological markers differ - age of first marriage, time of first birth, homeownership rate, investment rate, credit score, reported number of friends, time spent on internet - they're all different, substantially so, as compared to when the boomers and up were our age.
Well, we call it boomers vs. millenials, but the actual dividing line is when you entered the work force in relation to the Lesser Depression. Which mostly cleaves on boomer/Gen X lines, but theres some wriggle room, especially at the oldest part of millenials.
They really are fundamentally different sociologically, economically, and politically. The younger cohort has much less trust in society's institutions, including capitalism, is less skeptical of socialism, is more authoritarian and dismissive of the rule of law. Lots of important sociological markers differ - age of first marriage, time of first birth, homeownership rate, investment rate, credit score, reported number of friends, time spent on internet - they're all different, substantially so, as compared to when the boomers and up were our age.
Bloomberg really helping me come to terms with a Sanders or Biden nom. He truly is a monstrous piece of shit. Running in the wrong primary.
It's been wild seeing the PSA guys actually go hard on him, since they are usually pretty circumspect about criticizing anyone who might be running against trump in due time.
The thread has honestly been unreadable for me for months and I've been spending more time on gaming side. I also unfollowed a bunch of otherwise lovely people on gamedev and game critic twitter who frankly should know better. 😑
It's been wild seeing the PSA guys actually go hard on him, since they are usually pretty circumspect about criticizing anyone who might be running against trump in due time.
The thread has honestly been unreadable for me for months and I've been spending more time on gaming side. I also unfollowed a bunch of otherwise lovely people on gamedev and game critic twitter who frankly should know better. 😑
Another stock market high despite the worlds second largest economy being shut down and Apple warning, thanks to the Federal Reserve enabling Trump's re-election.
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I'm really not that worried (compared to everyone else in here) about the GE and I'm happy that you're as bullish as I am. The Senate map is giving me the nightmares still though.
Perhaps Sanders will crumble in the General Election. But if you look at Biden's performance so far, you'd be smart to guess his polling numbers are pure fool's gold. He can't campaign a win even if he was the only candidate.
My problem isn't that the numbers are bad in the primary, it's that I don't see how Bernie fixes them. Unlike young people, who are more likely to attract others TO Bernie through interactions and persuasion, older people are more likely to interact with Trump voters, and might be convinced to third-party or stay off the top of the ticket at the top (even if they don't vote for Trump directly).
If the goal is for a margin play such that we can get more votes in a few key states than 105%-110% of Trump's vote total in those states, this kind of breakout feels like we're handicapping ourselves greatly out of worry that people that 1) don't reliably vote and 2) are much more impacted by all this nonsense because they have to deal with DeVos and climate change ways that the olds don't.
I've just had to ignore a shit ton of people to make it readable. Especially in the past few months.
True but I imagine we would have different results now if South Carolina was the first state. Really don't want Biden as president either but I want to senate and it still seems to me that he's the best bet for that to happen.
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Yes I watched Noncompetes video.
Warren and all capitalists aren't NEOLIBERAL.
So many polls today. And there were a few I missed somehow.
Bernie's apparently competitive (by 4 anyway) in Arkansas.
Bernie's leading in Maine by 9.
He's -11 to Warren in Massachusetts for an obvious reason.
So I've bolded the changes I made to the Super Tuesday list
Bernie's competitive in 4 states and winning in 5 states. All it would take is an Amy-style takedown on Bloomberg in a debate or something, and I could see Bernie winning all 9. Out of 14. That's 65% of Super Tuesday's states that could go to Bernie. And there''s still 4 states that we don't have recent polling on yet.
Bernie's apparently competitive (by 4 anyway) in Arkansas.
Bernie's leading in Maine by 9.
He's -11 to Warren in Massachusetts for an obvious reason.
So I've bolded the changes I made to the Super Tuesday list
Bernie's competitive in 4 states and winning in 5 states. All it would take is an Amy-style takedown on Bloomberg in a debate or something, and I could see Bernie winning all 9. Out of 14. That's 65% of Super Tuesday's states that could go to Bernie. And there''s still 4 states that we don't have recent polling on yet.
He used these terms as recently as *checks watch* like 15 minutes ago.
God I hate that this guy is getting traction.
Yeah if the ignore list was bigger or the perms were coming faster, I'd still be around.
Ugh that MA poll is a few weeks old (pre-Iowa). I'm still surprised to see Forma winning MA.
It'll be hilarious if this winds up blowing up in the Arizona GOP's face. It's not entirely possible that their state house and senate flip blue alongside the federal senate seat thanks to the giant hispanic population. I bet the governor would be sweating bullets lol.
We need audio or video STAT. This guy is like one of those liquid mosquito traps you hang outdoors. He just attracts oppo by the thousands of hits.
There was a chart posted here or in the primary thread showing that almost 75% of bloomberg's support were absolutely considering other candidates. It was higher than other candidates. Bernie's maybe number was 39% iirc. Yeah, he is standing on a house of cards and we're going to see a reenactment of Scar's death scene tomorrow.
Those numbers are somewhat comforting even if a little disappointing.
It wouldn't be resetera if we weren't freaking out about 2-3 percent swings.
It's why asking characteristic questions like that can be so tricky. People might not like something in theory but don't care when you add a name
This is fucking frightening. Combine these with Bernie doing horribly with olds who actually vote and relying on the youth vote you can never count on, and I think people online are vastly underestimating how difficult a Bernie general election victory will be.
Lmao ilu and ur giant ignore listYeah if the ignore list was bigger or the perms were coming faster, I'd still be around.
Meh. I just don't worry about it because some people just wanna lash out.
Yes we tried that in 2016 too. And they tried it in 2018. And they tried it with Pelosi before that. Less interesting than ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Maine - Colby College
Trump Favs
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable 60%
Susan Collins
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 54%
Dem Primary
Bernie Sanders .......................................................... 25%
Pete Buttigieg............................................................. 16%
Mike Bloomberg ......................................................... 14%
Joe Biden ................................................................... 12%
Elizabeth Warren ......................................................... 9%
If the election for the United States Senate was held today and the candidates were Republican Susan Collins and Democratic Sara Gideon, who would you vote for?
Sara Gideon ............................................................... 43%
Susan Collins ............................................................. 42%
Unsure at this time ..................................................... 14%
If the election for the United States Senate was held today and the candidates were Republican Senator Susan Collins and a Democrat other than Sara Gideon, who would you vote for?
Susan Collins ............................................................. 40%
Whoever the Democratic candidate is ....................... 34%
Unsure at this time ..................................................... 26%
Gideon already showing strength.
Trump Favs
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable 60%
Susan Collins
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 54%
Dem Primary
Bernie Sanders .......................................................... 25%
Pete Buttigieg............................................................. 16%
Mike Bloomberg ......................................................... 14%
Joe Biden ................................................................... 12%
Elizabeth Warren ......................................................... 9%
If the election for the United States Senate was held today and the candidates were Republican Susan Collins and Democratic Sara Gideon, who would you vote for?
Sara Gideon ............................................................... 43%
Susan Collins ............................................................. 42%
Unsure at this time ..................................................... 14%
If the election for the United States Senate was held today and the candidates were Republican Senator Susan Collins and a Democrat other than Sara Gideon, who would you vote for?
Susan Collins ............................................................. 40%
Whoever the Democratic candidate is ....................... 34%
Unsure at this time ..................................................... 26%
Gideon already showing strength.
And he's still running ahead of Trump's approval in H2H matchups so maybe that should tell you about the utility of characteristic polling.
I don't think even need a poll to know that Bernie is leading in Colorado.
Colby hasn't really polled a lot so I'd hold on breaking out champagne.
Her approval spread is 42/54, identical to the quarterly MC poll from a few weeks ago... but then again, MC isn't the best pollster. Still, encouraging trends. I'm anxious for a high-quality poll.
Honestly you're probably right. I just like to have that reassurance, though. And the only poll we have so far is Bernie leading by only 1. So, trust that poll how you will I guess. lol
If Bernie's leading or competitive in 10 out of 14 Super Tuesday states...hoo boy.
Yeah, that's what I meant by having missed some polls. Somehow that poll from a few weeks ago slipped by me.
If the hearings didn't make people want to poll Maine, what the fuck will
It's why I basically gloss over any posts with the word Bloomberg in them right now. Not gonna fret about a potential nomination for him until Super Tuesday results are in. Makes catching up with the thread a lot easier, too.
Those are surprisingly close ROFLMAO
I don't believe it was posted here. I would have seen it if it was.
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