US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
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Definitely sounds like it. Jeffrey Wright has a great voice.
I didn't know until the Hulu documentary that Bill Clinton used MAGA in his announcement run speech also.
"I didn't do it, but even if I did, I totally am allowed."
New thread?
www.google.com
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020
Despite recent polls that indicate that former Vice President Joe Biden as the heavy favorite ahead of the 2020 election, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
www.google.com
why do you need to thread thisNew thread?
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020
Despite recent polls that indicate that former Vice President Joe Biden as the heavy favorite ahead of the 2020 election, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
New thread?
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020
Despite recent polls that indicate that former Vice President Joe Biden as the heavy favorite ahead of the 2020 election, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
His election map for Trump's win has Biden only winning New York and California, with Trump winning places like Virginia and Arizona so should be taken with the biggest grain of salt imaginable.
An Unexpected Struggle for Trump: Defining an Elusive Biden (Published 2020)
With only six weeks to the Republican National Convention, President Trump has yet to find a framework for attacking his opponent.
Defining an opponent — putting them on the defensive with caricature — is a crucial and proven tactic for candidates in competitive races. There is a graveyard of failed contenders — names like Kennedy, McGovern, Romney, Gore and Hillary Clinton — who found themselves branded by an opponent in portrayals, often unfair, that ricocheted across the political playing field and the media.
Mr. Trump had been adept at this. But the kind of attacks that seemed so effective when he was a new-to-politics outsider in 2016 also appear to have less resonance coming from inside the White House. Four years of tweets by Mr. Trump have numbed many voters.
"It's almost self-defeating," said Ron Christie, a Republican who was a senior adviser to President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. "People are exhausted. The president, with every tweet, every insult, will move himself out of favor with the demographic that he needs the most, which is the independent."
Mr. Trump does have some avenues to use against Mr. Biden before voter attitudes begin to harden. He has sought to tie Mr. Biden to the political unrest that has swept the country since the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis on May 25 by the police. And Mr. Trump has tried to portray his opponent as senile, "sleepy," corrupt and an ally of China, but none of those lines of attack has resonated with the public, at least up to now.
His aides have signaled that Mr. Trump, incumbent or not, would run as an outsider against Mr. Biden — who has been a fixture in Washington since he was elected to the Senate in 1972 — the way he had against Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Biden's long history of votes in the Senate, as well as his eight years as an active vice president under President Barack Obama, could give Mr. Trump plenty of material.
And if Mr. Biden continues to escape definition, Mr. Trump is likely to turn to Mr. Biden's running mate. Going after the vice-presidential candidate would be an unusual but not unprecedented strategy, and might have some resonance in this election given Mr. Biden's age; he is 77. (Mr. Trump is 74.)
Mr. Trump's campaign had calculated that Mr. Biden, given his long history and the stumbles in the early days of his primary, would be an easier opponent to caricature.
But now, as Mr. Trump prepares to go to New Hampshire on Saturday for his latest campaign rally, time is running short.
A series of national polls has shown Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden, often by double digits. Even more alarming for the president, he is trailing Mr. Biden in battleground states that he won in 2016 and are likely critical to any re-election plan — including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Even states like Georgia, which once seemed clearly in Mr. Trump's column, now appear competitive.
"Trump has much less time to pile up negatives on Biden," said Nelson Warfield, a Republican consultant who served as press secretary for Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996. "I made my first negative ad starring Hillary Clinton in 1992 and I kept doing ads criticizing her across the next 24 years. And I was by no means alone. Republicans have months to do to Biden what Republicans had over two decades to do to Hillary."
More in the link.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The point is: Trump could have been in a vastly stronger political position, even with COVID/economy just as bad. At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don't see good signs for him on either front. 4 months to go.
9:34 AM · Jul 10, 2020
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Debates swing voters just aren't that tuned into, at least in the polling I'm seeing: Confederate statues Biden's mental acuity Trump's taxes Things we know swing voters *do* care about: COVID response Policing/race relations Economy/jobs
12:51 PM · Jul 9, 2020
The point is: Trump could have been in a vastly stronger political position, even with COVID/economy just as bad. At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don't see good signs for him on either front. 4 months to go.
9:34 AM · Jul 10, 2020
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Debates swing voters just aren't that tuned into, at least in the polling I'm seeing: Confederate statues Biden's mental acuity Trump's taxes Things we know swing voters *do* care about: COVID response Policing/race relations Economy/jobs
12:51 PM · Jul 9, 2020
It should be Duckworth for a lot of reasons, but this is definitely one of them. Can you imagine the reaction, in the year of our lord 2020, to Trump loudly attacking a disabled veteran?
I didn't know that. I just assumed he was a credible historian with actual hard data to suggest a Trump win.
Can't see swing voters getting on board with that like they did against Hilary.
It would be no different than him attacking any veteran as he as done in the past... His base/GOP/Republicans will ignore it and everyone else will be annoyed/hate it. IMO, I don't think it would make a difference at this point.
An Unexpected Struggle for Trump: Defining an Elusive Biden (Published 2020)
With only six weeks to the Republican National Convention, President Trump has yet to find a framework for attacking his opponent.www.nytimes.com
Defining an opponent — putting them on the defensive with caricature — is a crucial and proven tactic for candidates in competitive races. There is a graveyard of failed contenders — names like Kennedy, McGovern, Romney, Gore and Hillary Clinton — who found themselves branded by an opponent in portrayals, often unfair, that ricocheted across the political playing field and the media.Mr. Trump had been adept at this. But the kind of attacks that seemed so effective when he was a new-to-politics outsider in 2016 also appear to have less resonance coming from inside the White House. Four years of tweets by Mr. Trump have numbed many voters."It's almost self-defeating," said Ron Christie, a Republican who was a senior adviser to President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. "People are exhausted. The president, with every tweet, every insult, will move himself out of favor with the demographic that he needs the most, which is the independent."Mr. Trump does have some avenues to use against Mr. Biden before voter attitudes begin to harden. He has sought to tie Mr. Biden to the political unrest that has swept the country since the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis on May 25 by the police. And Mr. Trump has tried to portray his opponent as senile, "sleepy," corrupt and an ally of China, but none of those lines of attack has resonated with the public, at least up to now.His aides have signaled that Mr. Trump, incumbent or not, would run as an outsider against Mr. Biden — who has been a fixture in Washington since he was elected to the Senate in 1972 — the way he had against Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Biden's long history of votes in the Senate, as well as his eight years as an active vice president under President Barack Obama, could give Mr. Trump plenty of material.And if Mr. Biden continues to escape definition, Mr. Trump is likely to turn to Mr. Biden's running mate. Going after the vice-presidential candidate would be an unusual but not unprecedented strategy, and might have some resonance in this election given Mr. Biden's age; he is 77. (Mr. Trump is 74.)Mr. Trump's campaign had calculated that Mr. Biden, given his long history and the stumbles in the early days of his primary, would be an easier opponent to caricature.But now, as Mr. Trump prepares to go to New Hampshire on Saturday for his latest campaign rally, time is running short.A series of national polls has shown Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden, often by double digits. Even more alarming for the president, he is trailing Mr. Biden in battleground states that he won in 2016 and are likely critical to any re-election plan — including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Even states like Georgia, which once seemed clearly in Mr. Trump's column, now appear competitive."Trump has much less time to pile up negatives on Biden," said Nelson Warfield, a Republican consultant who served as press secretary for Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996. "I made my first negative ad starring Hillary Clinton in 1992 and I kept doing ads criticizing her across the next 24 years. And I was by no means alone. Republicans have months to do to Biden what Republicans had over two decades to do to Hillary."
More in the link.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The point is: Trump could have been in a vastly stronger political position, even with COVID/economy just as bad. At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don't see good signs for him on either front. 4 months to go.
9:34 AM · Jul 10, 2020
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Debates swing voters just aren't that tuned into, at least in the polling I'm seeing: Confederate statues Biden's mental acuity Trump's taxes Things we know swing voters *do* care about: COVID response Policing/race relations Economy/jobs
12:51 PM · Jul 9, 2020
"A critical Trump challenge: His scramble to define and discredit Biden before the fall"
Here's a thought. Maybe have an answer when a softball interviewer asks what you'll do in the next four years. Maybe try to give potential voters reasons to support you.
This is beyond him of course. Just saying.
An Unexpected Struggle for Trump: Defining an Elusive Biden (Published 2020)
With only six weeks to the Republican National Convention, President Trump has yet to find a framework for attacking his opponent.Defining an opponent — putting them on the defensive with caricature — is a crucial and proven tactic for candidates in competitive races. There is a graveyard of failed contenders — names like Kennedy, McGovern, Romney, Gore and Hillary Clinton — who found themselves branded by an opponent in portrayals, often unfair, that ricocheted across the political playing field and the media.Mr. Trump had been adept at this. But the kind of attacks that seemed so effective when he was a new-to-politics outsider in 2016 also appear to have less resonance coming from inside the White House. Four years of tweets by Mr. Trump have numbed many voters."It's almost self-defeating," said Ron Christie, a Republican who was a senior adviser to President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. "People are exhausted. The president, with every tweet, every insult, will move himself out of favor with the demographic that he needs the most, which is the independent."Mr. Trump does have some avenues to use against Mr. Biden before voter attitudes begin to harden. He has sought to tie Mr. Biden to the political unrest that has swept the country since the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis on May 25 by the police. And Mr. Trump has tried to portray his opponent as senile, "sleepy," corrupt and an ally of China, but none of those lines of attack has resonated with the public, at least up to now.His aides have signaled that Mr. Trump, incumbent or not, would run as an outsider against Mr. Biden — who has been a fixture in Washington since he was elected to the Senate in 1972 — the way he had against Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Biden's long history of votes in the Senate, as well as his eight years as an active vice president under President Barack Obama, could give Mr. Trump plenty of material.And if Mr. Biden continues to escape definition, Mr. Trump is likely to turn to Mr. Biden's running mate. Going after the vice-presidential candidate would be an unusual but not unprecedented strategy, and might have some resonance in this election given Mr. Biden's age; he is 77. (Mr. Trump is 74.)Mr. Trump's campaign had calculated that Mr. Biden, given his long history and the stumbles in the early days of his primary, would be an easier opponent to caricature.But now, as Mr. Trump prepares to go to New Hampshire on Saturday for his latest campaign rally, time is running short.A series of national polls has shown Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden, often by double digits. Even more alarming for the president, he is trailing Mr. Biden in battleground states that he won in 2016 and are likely critical to any re-election plan — including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Even states like Georgia, which once seemed clearly in Mr. Trump's column, now appear competitive."Trump has much less time to pile up negatives on Biden," said Nelson Warfield, a Republican consultant who served as press secretary for Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996. "I made my first negative ad starring Hillary Clinton in 1992 and I kept doing ads criticizing her across the next 24 years. And I was by no means alone. Republicans have months to do to Biden what Republicans had over two decades to do to Hillary."
More in the link.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The point is: Trump could have been in a vastly stronger political position, even with COVID/economy just as bad. At this point, improvement would involve a change in either conditions or his conduct. At the moment, I don't see good signs for him on either front. 4 months to go.
9:34 AM · Jul 10, 2020
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Debates swing voters just aren't that tuned into, at least in the polling I'm seeing: Confederate statues Biden's mental acuity Trump's taxes Things we know swing voters *do* care about: COVID response Policing/race relations Economy/jobs
12:51 PM · Jul 9, 2020
Crazy to think it's less than four months now. "STILL PLENTY OF TIME" is becoming increasingly desperate.
His base is full of people who have literally prescribed to the notion: nothing matters as long as we eliminate abortion. So no, they don't care. I've talked to plenty of Trump supporters who claim they hate him as a person but he's supporting the agenda that they believe in. So no, nothing will change the needle for them.
They haven't changed their vote- in the face of:
1. Flagrant racism.
2. Children in cages
3. Comments and support of predators / sexual abuse
And I'm probably only scratching the surface. Those people are gone.We need to insure that every able bodied democrat we know is about to go and vote.No point in pandering to people who are still on the fence because I honestly believe they are Trump supporters.
New thread?
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020
Despite recent polls that indicate that former Vice President Joe Biden as the heavy favorite ahead of the 2020 election, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
We've found the Sam Wang of 2020
This guy's model relies on primary enthusiasm as the key metric for general election success. I wonder, have there been any significant events between the primaries and the GE that could have thrown things off?New thread?
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020
Despite recent polls that indicate that former Vice President Joe Biden as the heavy favorite ahead of the 2020 election, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
A visibly disabled war veteran is a different beast, which says more about the public than it does anything else.
It was mildly amusing watching the evangelicals and religious right contort themselves into knots to explain their support for Trump, then eventually just give up and say screw it, he hates the same people we hate.
I bet the response from 99% of those single issue abortion voters if you ask about universal healthcare for people would be "no".
Even if nothing had happened between the primary and now biden was never losing some of those states. Its complete junk
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Too many Universities and School Systems are about Radical Left Indoctrination, not Education. Therefore, I am telling the Treasury Department to re-examine their Tax-Exempt Status...
... and/or Funding, which will be taken away if this Propaganda or Act Against Public Policy continues. Our children must be Educated, not Indoctrinated!
11:49 AM · Jul 10, 2020
Too many Universities and School Systems are about Radical Left Indoctrination, not Education. Therefore, I am telling the Treasury Department to re-examine their Tax-Exempt Status...
... and/or Funding, which will be taken away if this Propaganda or Act Against Public Policy continues. Our children must be Educated, not Indoctrinated!
11:49 AM · Jul 10, 2020
New thread?
Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020
Despite recent polls that indicate that former Vice President Joe Biden as the heavy favorite ahead of the 2020 election, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
The prediction was made in april. 17th before the some of the worse effects of the pandemic and the protests. I think the guy made the predictions and stuck with it without considering the current events. The prediction was on the website Newsday. The article is behind a pay wall for me though.
Trump continuing to have his pulse on the nation's fears and concerns.
Seriously...I mean I'm beyond amazement and now I just accept it- but the fact that Trump still does not understand that taking the virus seriously and showing empathy is literally the only way to deal with this politically continues to astound me.
You can't gaslight a pandemic!
Seriously...I mean I'm beyond amazement and now I just accept it- but the fact that Trump still does not understand that taking the virus seriously and showing empathy is literally the only way to deal with this politically continues to astound me.
You can't gaslight a pandemic!
Sure his base is lost, but if he has a shot its in painting Biden or his VP effectively with independents and "swing voters" and all the marginal people right now. He's flailing to stick it on Biden but IMO he might actually be able to make it work with Warren (less so Harris). Duckworth seems like the strongest one there though, I think there is a person who would buy into his attacks on Warren but is turned off by the same tactics aimed at Duckworth
Also, early testing. With early testing they could have saved so many lives and jobs, and the economy would have taken a hit but maybe not crashed. Instead, he preferred to believe it would magically wash away and didn't want testing because it would show there's a problem. Same thing with the mask. He'd rather the problems persist than admit there might be a problem which is easy to fix.
Yeah, he's just desperately flailing for any angle that will play, but nothing else will, because COVID-19 will be all consuming from now until election day. Any rational person would realize that dealing with COVID-19 is the one and only thing that matters, but of course, Trump is not rational.
Looks like it was delayed just now:
Peter Alexander @PeterAlexander
NEW: WH @PressSec just told reporters Trump's New Hampshire rally will be delayed by a week or two, blaming a big storm coming in, per pool.
12:10 PM · Jul 10, 2020
NEW: WH @PressSec just told reporters Trump's New Hampshire rally will be delayed by a week or two, blaming a big storm coming in, per pool.
12:10 PM · Jul 10, 2020
He doesn't have an actual PLAN for anything!
Mostly because he's stupid and lazy.
He doesn't understand how no one is blaming him for Covid-19, but for his mishandling of it, revealing his utter incompetence, further exasperated by his bitching and moaning.
Mostly because he's stupid and lazy.
He doesn't understand how no one is blaming him for Covid-19, but for his mishandling of it, revealing his utter incompetence, further exasperated by his bitching and moaning.
He's got to just be livid that he can't have his rallies. Love to see it!
That storm is the approaching covid surge from July 4 weekend
The annoying this is that it is 4mo is quite a bit of time though should something catastrophic happen. Obviously not the same but that Comey letter devastated the Clinton campaign polling in less than two weeks flat. Granted Biden doesn't have anywhere near the amount of baggage going into November and Trump is on increasingly hostile ground, but 4mo is a lot of time for a desperate admin and bootlicking DOJ/Senate to do damage if they're really willing to go balls to the wall. The fact that they've gotten nothing in the past half year though is heartening, along with the fact that Trump seemingly is incapable of producing a shred of empathy for COVID patients.
Feel like the stimulus at the end of July are really going to set the tone for how the GOP act going into November though, by all indications they're looking to just salt the earth for people really suffering. I don't see how that's sustainable given that the media would probably leap on mass eviction/bankruptcy stories in a heartbeat. On top of that the insistence that kids return to school ASAP will likely see horrific stories of entire school districts getting beaten up by COVID.
I'm definitely more optimistic, but at this point it feels like we're about to crest a wave of misery into a whole new deluge of problems with an ever more cornered admin and GOP.
Feel like the stimulus at the end of July are really going to set the tone for how the GOP act going into November though, by all indications they're looking to just salt the earth for people really suffering. I don't see how that's sustainable given that the media would probably leap on mass eviction/bankruptcy stories in a heartbeat. On top of that the insistence that kids return to school ASAP will likely see horrific stories of entire school districts getting beaten up by COVID.
I'm definitely more optimistic, but at this point it feels like we're about to crest a wave of misery into a whole new deluge of problems with an ever more cornered admin and GOP.
Yep. He doesn't want to handle or manage the Covid-19 crisis. He just wants people to pretend it isn't happening and celebrate the economy or wants people be mad about whatever dumb issue hits his brain (usually from Fox News).
>
Will the Tropical Storm Headed for NH Affect Trump's Rally?
UPDATE ( Friday, July 10, 12:35 p.m.): The Trump campaign has postponed the rally, citing Tropical Storm Fay. More details here. President Donald Trump has had so-called TikTok teens mess with the attendance at his recent rally in Tulsa, and reportedly they’re at it again for Saturday’s rally in...
www.nbcboston.com
But with Tropical Storm Fay headed for New England on Friday and Saturday, could bad weather spoil the president's chances of a big crowd at Portsmouth International Airport Saturday night?
So far, it doesn't look like it, according to the NBC10 Boston and NECN forecast.
Keith Carson @KeithCarson
Our forecast for Portsmouth at 8 PM on Saturday is Partly Cloudy and 78 F.
12:23 PM · Jul 10, 2020
Our forecast for Portsmouth at 8 PM on Saturday is Partly Cloudy and 78 F.
12:23 PM · Jul 10, 2020
Last edited:
Is weather.com including the up to date Sharpie forecasts?
Let me get this straight:
His campaign is hemorrhaging independent and suburban female voters, and his strategy is to vilify public schools and universities?
My guess is some universities and schools have directly reached out to him and told him they weren't going back in the fall.
Of he continues, which he will, it will likely trigger a national teacher (k-12, college) strike, that this country hasn't seen.
>
Will the Tropical Storm Headed for NH Affect Trump's Rally?
UPDATE ( Friday, July 10, 12:35 p.m.): The Trump campaign has postponed the rally, citing Tropical Storm Fay. More details here. President Donald Trump has had so-called TikTok teens mess with the attendance at his recent rally in Tulsa, and reportedly they’re at it again for Saturday’s rally in...But with Tropical Storm Fay headed for New England on Friday and Saturday, could bad weather spoil the president's chances of a big crowd at Portsmouth International Airport Saturday night?So far, it doesn't look like it, according to the NBC10 Boston and NECN forecast.
Keith Carson @KeithCarson
Our forecast for Portsmouth at 8 PM on Saturday is Partly Cloudy and 78 F.
12:23 PM · Jul 10, 2020
It's too hot and his orange makeup will start to run.
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