US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.

TheHunter · May 23, 2020

It was the worst of times
It was...still not the best of times
Please dear god make 2020 stop

2020-05-21T215824Z_1513783836_RC28TG9E42N3_RTRMADP_3_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA-TRUMP_1590117838798_1590117852551.JPG

"So that's how these work?"

Welcome to another exciting edition of Please God Make It Stop! I'm your host ~~Covid-19~~ Hunter. Today we have an exciting bunch of news...I'm kidding.

Coronavirus is ravaging the country as we have just now hit 96K deaths and over 1.5 million cases of covid-19. As this is happening ~~people~~ cavemen in suits are demanding that we open up the country so we can make the number go up.

Their avatar and patron saint seen pictured above pondering if he should name his second child 123456789 or Jesus Christ 2: Christ Harder.

On top of all this our unemployment number has skyrocketed to levels unseen since The Great Depression and we are fast approaching untenable economic decline. But hey, you can also enjoy a nice Summer Bleech Shandy!

Ac30 · May 23, 2020

It's that time of the week again

#dropoutBiden

TheHunter · May 23, 2020

Ac30 said:
It's that time of the week again

#dropoutBiden

I'll do you one better. Why is Biden?

Ac30 · May 23, 2020

TheHunter said:
I'll do you one better. Why is Biden?

When is Biden is the real question

cartoon_soldier · May 23, 2020

Ahhh the new thread smell

plagiarize · May 23, 2020

The depressing thing about that forecasted graph is that we are about to hit 20% based on most projections.

TheHunter · May 23, 2020

plagiarize said:
The depressing thing about that forecasted graph is that we are about to hit 20% based on most prejections.

We'll most likely hit 25%.

I don't see us stopping before 40 million.

schuelma · May 23, 2020

Trump spending 1M on an ad blitz re: Biden's gaffe from yesterday. Link

This could very well be wishful thinking on my part, but I just don't think this is going to end up moving the needle (does Trump really want to get into this argument??) and IMO is another reflection of just how unfocused and flailing his campaign is. They literally have not figured out an attack that works on Biden and are just throwing things against the wall.

RussTC3 · May 23, 2020

schuelma said:
Trump spending 1M on an ad blitz re: Biden's gaffe from yesterday. Link

This could very well be wishful thinking on my part, but I just don't think this is going to end up moving the needle (does Trump really want to get into this argument??) and IMO is another reflection of just how unfocused and flailing his campaign is. They literally have not figured out an attack that works on Biden and are just throwing things against the wall.

I agree. Attacks of reflection and projection against Biden and/or Democrats this cycle will not work. Voters already know who Biden is and the ones that are truly undecided or persuadable to switch sides will not be swayed by these types of attacks. Trump has no standing. I see you. You can't trick me.

My response to almost all their weak attacks as I see and read them is: I know who Trump is. You can't hide who he has been for the last 3 years. There are no secrets anymore. He failed. He's failing us and our nation. No amount of projection will make me all of a sudden unsee how unfit he is and how critical it is that he just goes away already.

Enough is enough. The damage you've done is enough. Go away.

Ac30 · May 23, 2020

schuelma said:
Trump spending 1M on an ad blitz re: Biden's gaffe from yesterday. Link

This could very well be wishful thinking on my part, but I just don't think this is going to end up moving the needle (does Trump really want to get into this argument??) and IMO is another reflection of just how unfocused and flailing his campaign is. They literally have not figured out an attack that works on Biden and are just throwing things against the wall.

I mean, it's better than the other shit they've tried. Biden's just helping them with attack ads with this and the "Don't vote for me" shit.

But yeah, with Trump as the comparison, Biden's a saint lmao

Blue Skies · May 23, 2020

This isn't a poli era thread unless we talk VEEP picks, so I'll start:

With Biden's gaffe I thibk it basically guarantees a black Woman will be his running mate

kamala Harris is my choice. She's just fun and can kick ass.

Val demmings is too old and unknown

Stacey Abrams is too young and inexperienced

Susan Rice would be good too, but has she ever been elected to anything?

Ayanna Presley too would be good

picking Klobuchar, literally a "Karen" at this point would be the worst choice.

Ac30 · May 23, 2020

It's 💯% not Klob so we can all rest easy.

DTC · May 23, 2020

RNC recently polled a bunch of line of attacks, and the only attacks they've found worked are ones that are generic dem attacks (on issues like taxes). And even these attacks don't move the needle enough

Biden gaffing probably honestly helps him as long as it's not super serious. It makes the Trump campaign focus on attacks that don't move the needle at all.

Piston · May 23, 2020

schuelma said:
Trump spending 1M on an ad blitz re: Biden's gaffe from yesterday. Link

This could very well be wishful thinking on my part, but I just don't think this is going to end up moving the needle (does Trump really want to get into this argument??) and IMO is another reflection of just how unfocused and flailing his campaign is. They literally have not figured out an attack that works on Biden and are just throwing things against the wall.

To me it is refreshing to have someone come out and admit that what they said or did was wrong and apologize.

I know people can get all hissy about the lack of significance for following decorum... but I don't want to live in a US or a world that has a President or role model that incites, divides, and antagonizes so freely and openly. There are future generations that will see this behavior and internalize it as normal and I hate that shit.

So sure Biden shouldn't have said that and I know that part of it wasn't what he meant and that part of it is only meant to be implicit and not so explicit, especially coming from an elderly white man. That he even walked it back and explained his mistake is something that we haven't seen in 3.5 years.

Edit: I also think this forces his hand towards picking Harris, Abrams, or Val Demmings.

gcubed · May 23, 2020

schuelma said:
Trump spending 1M on an ad blitz re: Biden's gaffe from yesterday. Link

This could very well be wishful thinking on my part, but I just don't think this is going to end up moving the needle (does Trump really want to get into this argument??) and IMO is another reflection of just how unfocused and flailing his campaign is. They literally have not figured out an attack that works on Biden and are just throwing things against the wall.

it's pretty clear so far that nothing is going to move the needle to Trump. What you have to worry about is juicing turnout for down ballot.

without COVID-19 miraculously disappearing and the economy completely rebounding in the next 3-4 months, Trump is done. The hatred of him through 2018 (when things were "great" economically!) compounded with his one "bright" spot being now the worst since the Great Depression is going to be impossible overcome... but he needs to win the senate and any way to flip states is a huge plus leading up to the census

ShadowSwordmaster · May 23, 2020

Ac30 said:
It's 💯% not Klob so we can all rest easy.

Yep.

Poodlestrike · May 23, 2020

12 hour sleep, new thread, today's alright.

Ac30 said:
It's 💯% not Klob so we can all rest easy.

You cannot deny the klobmentum

Somebody post it

Piston · May 23, 2020

RussTC3 said:
I agree. Attacks of reflection and projection against Biden and/or Democrats this cycle will not work. Voters already know who Biden is and the ones that are truly undecided or persuadable to switch sides will not be swayed by these types of attacks. Trump has no standing. I see you. You can't trick me.

My response to almost all their weak attacks as I see and read them is: I know who Trump is. You can't hide who he has been for the last 3 years. There are no secrets anymore. He failed. He's failing us and our nation. No amount of projection will make me all of a sudden unsee how unfit he is and how critical it is that he just goes away already.

Enough is enough. The damage you've done is enough. Go away.

Them attacking Biden on this isn't meant to flip voters from Biden to Trump, it is meant to suppress turnout for Biden and muddy the waters.

NihonTiger · May 23, 2020

Blue Skies said:
This isn't a poli era thread unless we talk VEEP picks, so I'll start:

With Biden's gaffe I thibk it basically guarantees a black Woman will be his running mate

kamala Harris is my choice. She's just fun and can kick ass.

Val demmings is too old and unknown

Stacey Abrams is too young and inexperienced

Susan Rice would be good too, but has she ever been elected to anything?

Ayanna Presley too would be good

picking Klobuchar, literally a "Karen" at this point would be the worst choice.

Harris has the right combo of age, personality and credentials I think to work. Pressley is a bit too young right now but she has a great future ahead of her.

Blue Skies · May 23, 2020

In an alternate timeline in which Buttigieg doesn't think he has a chance, and Biden feels too old to run, Amy Klobuchar secures the nomination and is currently being bombarded from the right and the online left with "Karen" memes

Ignatz Mouse · May 23, 2020

Piston said:
Them attacking Biden on this isn't meant to flip voters from Biden to Trump, it is meant to suppress turnout for Biden and muddy the waters.

It's tiring trying to discern actual outrage about this (and the very real issue of taking PoC votes for granted) and the online outrage machine that's just boosting it.

Ac30 · May 23, 2020

Blue Skies said:
In an alternate timeline in which Buttigieg doesn't think he has a chance, and Biden feels too old to run, Amy Klobuchar secures the nomination and is currently being bombarded from the right and the online left with "Karen" memes

She's just unlikable and untrustworthy , OK?! How dare you suggest there's a sexism component?!

SasaBassa · May 23, 2020

I'm guessing it'll be Kamala, if nothing else, to ensure the "we take black votes for granted" doesn't stick as well. Pragmatically, it's true that they do but it shouldn't be said by him. It's also true that black people in general have over decades been able to at least sway some policy because of how critical they are to the party.

Source: am black.

S!lent · May 23, 2020

Anyone seen some good analysis of the track record of betting markets on political outcomes as compared to polling? The markets continue to favor Trump despite the polling heavily tilted to Biden, and I'd like to know how much that should concern me. Anecdotally the betting markets seem to have done a terrible job predicting the Dem primary, but I'm wondering if anyone has written about this issue in any sort of depth.

schuelma · May 23, 2020

Ignatz Mouse said:
It's tiring trying to discern actual outrage about this (and the very real issue of taking PoC votes for granted) and the online outrage machine that's just boosting it.

right. And online outrage doesn't last. Its May. Yesterday cost Biden a media cycle and that's it. Him apologizing immediately will help end it.

schuelma · May 23, 2020

S1lent said:
Anyone seen some good analysis of the track record of betting markets on political outcomesas compared to polling? The markets continue to favor Trump despite the polling heavily tilted to Biden, and I'd like to know how much that should concern me. Anecdotally the betting markets seem to have done a terrible job predicting the Dem primary, but I'm wondering if anyone has written about this issue in any sort of depth.

My WAG is 1- its not a lot of people actually betting and 2- its people doing the very surface level analysis (that sadly we see on era far too often) that Trump behind in 2016 and winning= him winning in 2020.

CthulhuSars · May 23, 2020

Ac30 said:
It's 💯% not Klob so we can all rest easy.

But the campaign ads would write themselves "It's Klobberin Time"

RussTC3 · May 23, 2020

Piston said:
Them attacking Biden on this isn't meant to flip voters from Biden to Trump, it is meant to suppress turnout for Biden and muddy the waters.

My point assumes firm Biden voters are locked in already as are firm Trump. Put another way, these attacks won't persuade or dissuade any voters. An argument can be made that it could shore up his base but it isn't going to push voters over to him. The alternative to Biden is still Trump. And that's not acceptable.

Deleted member 887 · May 23, 2020

I mean by next week we'll see if this truly hurt Biden or not. I doubt it really has.

By last night it wasn't even trending on twitter and the people I follow were done with it by the afternoon. It's a one day story that's going to get dragged into the weekend because the media won't have much else to talk about.

I feel Biden is just a known quantity. People who are voting for him know exactly why they are voting for him. To get rid of Trump, supreme court, push out dem policies. Most people know he's a means to an end.

And with COVID still happening, people still losing jobs and the UB benefits running out in July I think. people are worried about more pressing things.

Sordid Plebeian · May 23, 2020

It should probably be Harris, the VP is not just an accessory and there is a small chance she will have to succeed Biden. I don't have confidence in the others to lead as much as Harris, despite my criticisms of her.

schuelma · May 23, 2020

Sordid Plebeian said:
It should probably be Harris, the VP is not just an accessory and there is a small chance she will have to succeed Biden. I don't have confidence in the others to lead as much as Harris, despite my criticisms of her.

Yea I think its Harris and the fact that nothing is leaking from her camp tells me she's confident its her.

She checks all the boxes and I think is very well equipped to be the attack dog on Trump World's corruption.

S!lent · May 23, 2020

schuelma said:
My WAG is 1- its not a lot of people actually betting and 2- its people doing the very surface level analysis (that sadly we see on era far too often) that Trump behind in 2016 and winning= him winning in 2020.

Yeah, I also suspect that the demographics of the folks that bet on such sites may skew toward people that expect/want Trump to win.

Ac30 · May 23, 2020

Boke18 said:
I mean by next week we'll see if this truly hurt Biden or not. I doubt it really has.

By last night it wasn't even trending on twitter and the people I follow were done with it by the afternoon. It's a one day story that's going to get dragged into the weekend because the media won't have much else to talk about.

I feel Biden is just a known quantity. People who are voting for him know exactly why they are voting for him. To get rid of Trump, supreme court, push out dem policies. Most people know he's a means to an end.

And with COVID still happening, people still losing jobs and the UB benefits running out in July I think. people are worried about more pressing things.

I'm laughing at the Trump campaign turning the "You ain't black" thing into a shirt. Yeah, I'm sure it won't be a bunch of white people wearing those at his rallies

Ernest · May 23, 2020

Re Biden's gaffe... just wanted to remind y'all that this gaffe came at the end of a 20-minute interview where Biden spoke at length on issues facing Black America. Rather than focus on the 20 minutes of substance, though, social media has decided to pull out the 15 seconds of awkward phrasing.
And yet none of us here have been discussing the 20 minutes of substance either.

Deleted member 887 · May 23, 2020

Ac30 said:
I'm laughing at the Trump campaign turning the "You ain't black" thing into a shirt. Yeah, I'm sure it won't be a bunch of white people wearing those at his rallies

High key it's going to backfire and more people will be upset at his supporters for wearing that damn shirt.

Deleted member 887 · May 23, 2020

Ernest said:
Re Biden's gaffe... just wanted to remind y'all that this gaffe came at the end of a 20-minute interview where Biden spoke at length on issues facing Black America. Rather than focus on the 20 minutes of substance, though, social media has decided to pull out the 15 seconds of awkward phrasing.
And yet none of us here have been discussing the 20 minutes of substance either.

That's what happens though. Like lets be real. Biden completely did this to himself. Dude got way too comfortable lol

Ac30 · May 23, 2020

Boke18 said:
High key it's going to backfire and more people will be upset at his supporters for wearing that damn shirt.

Nah, social media won't kick up a storm about it and instead we have another dumb twitter thread on how much better Trump's campaign is at this, Dems outflanked etc etc etc.

Boke18 said:
That's what happens though. Like lets be real. Biden completely did this to himself. Dude got way too comfortable lol

Dude got 95% of the way there then face planted lol

Wordballoons · May 23, 2020

Ayana Presley would be great but it's Kamala, so I'm betting there aren't any significant reforms in the next 8-12 years.

Double 0 · May 23, 2020

Wordballoons said:
Ayana Presley would be great but it's Kamala, so I'm betting there aren't any significant reforms in the next 8-12 years.

That wasn't true for Bill or Obama. Not sure why it would be for Biden?

More than anything, we need to stop rolling things back to the Republicans every 2 to 4 years.

Piston · May 23, 2020

Ignatz Mouse said:
It's tiring trying to discern actual outrage about this (and the very real issue of taking PoC votes for granted) and the online outrage machine that's just boosting it.

I should say, there is a distinction between the Trumpers muck-racking about this and the legitimate criticism from the black community.

RailWays · May 23, 2020

Still in my corner hoping for Warren.

Blue Skies · May 23, 2020

Wordballoons said:
Ayana Presley would be great but it's Kamala, so I'm betting there aren't any significant reforms in the next 8-12 years.

I guess that all depends on what Congress looks like.
The president and Vice President aren't Kings/Queens, they're just the execs up top, and they are EQUAL to the Congress.

Wordballoons · May 23, 2020

Double 0 said:
That wasn't true for Bill or Obama. Not sure why it would be for Biden?

More than anything, we need to stop rolling things back to the Republicans every 2 to 4 years.

Bill Clinton's reforms sort of hurt people leftists should be helping, so not sure why you'd point to him. Obama, though - sure.

But Kamala is to the right of where Biden would be and I can't imagine she would be a good influence on policy proposals. Biden positions himself wherever the middle of the party is so you might get something, but he still needs to be surrounded by better people

Also, if it is true that literally all that comes out of Biden is getting rid of Trump then that's great but how do you guys excite yourselves about this really? What a wet blanket platform

Double 0 · May 23, 2020

Wordballoons said:
Bill Clinton's reforms sort of hurt people leftists should be helping, so not sure why you'd point to him. Obama, though - sure.

But Kamala is to the right of where Biden would be and I can't imagine she would be a good influence on policy proposals. Biden positions himself wherever the middle of the party is so you might get something, but he still needs to be surrounded by better people

Also, if it is true that literally all that comes out of Biden is getting rid of Trump then that's great but how do you guys excite yourselves about this really? What a wet blanket platform

Receipts when it comes to Bill

Obama has a similar list.

As the LBJ stuff has stated, you don't need to be the most progressive to get the most done. You do need to have control over the branches of government though. And be competent.

Obama lost his power real quick and still did a bunch.

You'd think this would be the lesson, but I get why it's not. I want the GOP to be powerless for at least four years if not more. So we can get shit done.

That means more to me than any revolution. Power matters.

Ernest · May 23, 2020

Boke18 said:
That's what happens though. Like lets be real. Biden completely did this to himself. Dude got way too comfortable lol

(actual quotes from black people on my FB; some of these are friends of friends):

I get what he was saying, but Jesus Christ Joe Biden is a gaffe factory.
gaffes aren't policy. This worries me about his election, but not his presidency
Y'all invited Joe Biden "to the cookout" enough times and that he got too comfortable.
If I was bffs with Obama, I'd prolly be cocky, too
They need to duck tape his mouth and tie him to a chair until November.
This dude needs some grade A handlers as he has zero filter
Where is the lie tho. Watch the entire video
I feel like the media is focusing on the wrong things i don't care about what he said and I'm black. Let's not forget who is in office right now.. the same man that said Haiti and Ethiopia were shithole countries
After Joe refused to the Breakfast Club why would he go on the Breakfast club? Still Voting for him but still....stay away from them.

Point being that you (generic you, not anyone specific) can try to blow this up into a "shitshow" or a campaign-crippling gaffe, but the reality is anyone who didn't already have an axe to grind is rolling their eyes at Joe Biden phrasing something in a goofy way and moving on with their lives.

EvilChameleon · May 23, 2020

Fantastic thread subtitle.

Wordballoons · May 23, 2020

Double 0 said:
Receipts when it comes to Bill

Obama has a similar list.

As the LBJ stuff has stated, you don't need to be the most progressive to get the most done. You do need to have control over the branches of government though.

Obama lost his real quick and still did a bunch.

You'd think this would be the lesson, but I get why it's not. I want the GOP to be powerless for at least four years if not more. So we can get shit done.

That means more to me than any revolution.

Lol, slow down with the revolution talk or whatever patronizing comment that was. Anyway, re: Clinton - We could just as easily point to welfare 'reform', NAFTA, the crime bills, repealing glass steagall, etc. We clearly have a different interpretation of the guy

I agree on your Congress - but I don't see why he doesn't repeal the filibuster. If he doesn't, you guys have nothing

DTC · May 23, 2020

Wordballoons said:
Bill Clinton's reforms sort of hurt people leftists should be helping, so not sure why you'd point to him. Obama, though - sure.

But Kamala is to the right of where Biden would be and I can't imagine she would be a good influence on policy proposals. Biden positions himself wherever the middle of the party is so you might get something, but he still needs to be surrounded by better people

Also, if it is true that literally all that comes out of Biden is getting rid of Trump then that's great but how do you guys excite yourselves about this really? What a wet blanket platform

Medicare public option, $15 minimum wage, expanded pre-school, Free college for families making less than $125,000, and the repeal of the death penalty and other criminal justice reforms are not nothing. This is the most progressive platform of a GE nominee in generations, and would totally change America as we know it if even a third of Biden's agenda is implemented. Biden will be a great progressive President if he is elected with a dem house and dem senate majority.

I don't really mind Biden being seen as a moderate though. It tricks swing voters into voting for a super liberal President

Ignatz Mouse · May 23, 2020

Piston said:
I should say, there is a distinction between the Trumpers muck-racking about this and the legitimate criticism from the black community.

There is, but what's tiring is the anti-Dem, burn it all down folks who went straight from Reade to this. The Nathan Robinsons of the world and their followers.

Wordballoons · May 23, 2020

DTC said:
Medicare public option, $15 minimum wage, expanded pre-school, Free college for families making less than $125,000, and the repeal of the death penalty and other criminal justice reforms are not nothing. This is the most progressive platform of a GE nominee in generations, and would totally change America as we know it if even a third of Biden's agenda is implemented. Biden will be a great progressive President if he is elected with a dem house and dem senate majority.

I don't really mind Biden being seen as a moderate though. It tricks swing voters into voting for a super liberal President

I agree, which is why I think it's critical he actually be able to implement it. Starting that would involve having someone better than harris, surrounding himself with good advisors, and nuking the filibuster. I don't know how much influence VPs actually have, though - maybe Harris doesn't matter. But without getting rid of the filibuster he's a lame duck. i think Obama had like 58 seats and got stonewalled, Biden is going to have 52 at best

US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.

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