That's my take atm as well. Considering nthis hasn't happened since the 70's (Governor not changing over for Dems)
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US PoliEra 2021 |OT 3| Rage Against The Manchin
- Thread starter SSF1991
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also if you look at each race.. NJ was ran on Murphy's handling of COVID and his record. VA was ran on cultural war issues/stupid comments by Terry. A silver lining shows that if you run on a solid record and avoid stupid gaffes, you can (closely) win.
I don't want to minimize the grave importance of the GOP swings on Tuesday. But on the NJ front it's worth remembering that when Murphy was first elected he wasn't just riding an anti-Trump wave in a Dem-friendly year; he was also following a dismally unpopular Chris Christie, who was rivaling endgame Nixon/GWB in approvals. And he dragged down the whole statewide Republican Party with him.
Lots of concerning signs in NJ but also important to consider where the baseline was previously set too.
Lots of concerning signs in NJ but also important to consider where the baseline was previously set too.
in normal people language plz i'm too dumb to understand financial-ese
Not until 2023, tho. So one more year to go wild, if y'all into that thing.
Well, it won't really affect the average person who invests in crypto anyway.
Kinda?
It's mostly for brokers and businesses. I'd imagine most whales are already paying taxes anyway.
I read his tweets earlier in the day and frankly I dont think I agree. He wrote a book on the fight for same sex marriage, and during his research, he found a quote from Sinema saying something to the effect of "if you make your donors and your base angry, you're doing a good job" during Arizona's fight for same sex marriage. Sinema is raking in from her current donors, and it doesn't explain her thumbs down for $15/hr minimum wage. It pretty much looks like her career is over.
With those two threads on Poland being posted today, where does the ruling party there rank on that political alignment chart? Seems they are the most extreme of the extreme right.
Nah, unfortunately, in Poland, there's a party, Confederation, that's right-wing on economic and social issues. Law & Justice, while very right-wing on social issues, is actually legitimately economically populist, doing things like expanding child benefits and such. They're also strategically pro-EU, as opposed to Confederation.
The good/bad news is that polling of people under 30 I believe have women going to the standard-issue center-left party, while the men are unfortunately going to the hard-right party, so within a generation, Polish politics will be like everywhere else.
One of the cable news channels will hire her. Fox News would love a former Green Party democrat to complain about liberals
Men being shitty once again.
We need more women in politics.
Nevermind. loll
I don't wanna watch any more Karens justifying idiocy. What did they say?
Learning loss from the pandemic is real. My kid did pretty well last year but was still upset at least a few times a week.
McAuliffe being tone-deaf is also real. Democrats keep running big-city-stage national-style events and hope it is enough and are "surprised" when it is not.
Put them to the test next year, and see if they stick with this or come up with a different reason/excuse. In the meantime, good luck with Youngkin, seems like he and the new-majority house legislature are gonna get started right away making up for that learning loss, heh.
"Props" to CNN for trying to make this more than it was.
McAuliffe being tone-deaf is also real. Democrats keep running big-city-stage national-style events and hope it is enough and are "surprised" when it is not.
Put them to the test next year, and see if they stick with this or come up with a different reason/excuse. In the meantime, good luck with Youngkin, seems like he and the new-majority house legislature are gonna get started right away making up for that learning loss, heh.
"Props" to CNN for trying to make this more than it was.
That Democrats need to talk about how they are going to help get kids caught up after the educational disruptions of Covid. And, that they can't just run on "hey look how bad trump was. They don't want Trump, but they also don't want to vote for someone who just runs as a not trump."
Wasn't all this in the Bills Sinema and Manchin held up?
As the dust has settled, those two really hurt this 2021 cycle in that state in particular.
The GOP has been antagonists to public education since the Brown versus Board of Education as well.
Of course…but again…democrats need to actually message this to people. I know people are dismissive, but democrats really do need to start simplifying their message to how their policies are gonna help the every day lives of every day Americans.
I think it makes no sense to compare parties of countries internationally. Especially the two-party system works different compared to a country with like 6 parties in one parliament. Otherwise I can see that the Democratic Party in the US is left, but still some of the views or decisions of party members would be seen as right leaning in my country. The same is true of course for left wing parties over here from an US perspective.
Not every issue is global. Some countries have diffferent Interests, background, culture or history than others.
Not every issue is global. Some countries have diffferent Interests, background, culture or history than others.
Lol like Biden tweets everyday about policies. Never mentions Trump. Do any Democrats mention Trump outside of 01/06 and even then?
These women are obviously tuned in to Right wing media that victimize Trump daily. But sadly so is most of America via facebook and other social media.
Ironically the man they voted for made it all about Trump and how much he was not Trump!
I do think an easy heuristic to sort of use is "Does this left leaning party somewhere else require obtaining over 50% of the vote by itself to do anything effectively?" If the answer is no then that doesn't mean that party's successes point towards a progressivism in that electorate or even towards comparably skilled political activity, it points towards them operating inside a system in which minority interests can more effectively have input on the governance process.
The whole "Dems are center right compared to other countries" thing really really sort of glosses over the extent to which parties in other countries are often very literally representing a smaller portion of their population than Dems need to. Which is not a bad thing! That might be exactly why our system is so fucked. But it really means you can't compare apples to apples, because what's being required of each party to be effective is extremely different
Issue with the "Dems need to be better at messaging" thing is that it's less about the message and more about the megaphone; that is to say, the Republicans have an entire attendant media ecosystem dedicated to relentlessly pushing party talking points and we... Do not. Like, if we come up with the perfect message, but Fox makes shit up about it and the other networks only talk about it for 15 minutes or invite a conservative in to make shit up about it, does it really matter that the message is perfect?
Republicans are also way more homogenous.
From a marketing/pr/propaganda perspective (it's all the same shit technique wise; the father of modern PR studied political propaganda techniques) it's easy to have a demographic that you target.
Dems are a big tent so harder to message.
I learned nothing by watching that.
Other than, one shuckster sold better than another shuckster.
Also, it's hilarious they think Republicans will fix the schools. Good luck with that.
"Have you considered private school? Here's a voucher!"
I'd be interested to hear from Era members in Virginia about school closures over the past year and whether the message from the video rings true about the advertising of what McAuliffe was focused on. I live in suburban Indiana so it's hard for me to know whether those moms were just ignorant of the message being sent or if Terry really screwed the pooch on messaging (other than the one "unaffiliated" voter, who was likely the lady who didn't raise her hand when asked if they voted for Biden, so we all know what that means).
Just another thing to point out in NJ, I feel like Murphy didn't do as much advertising this time around. Back in 2017, I remember a ton of ads for Murphy and this time I don't think I ever saw/heard one advertisement. I know Murphy had events, including one with Obama, but otherwise I never saw anything from the campaign
Almost feels like they kind of just coasted which is probably why it was such a low turnout election. So many people just assumed it was a done deal with Murphy winning re-election, at least on the Dem side. I know the republicans all felt he was beatable and fired up
I think the whole idea of keep talking about an issue, regardless of policy and people might give you high marks on that issue, might have something to it.
They said the Youngkin actually sat and listened to them and his wife went into the suburbs to pay attention to them. That's really the crux of it more than anything. If you help people feel heard and respected you can get away with a lot more. That was the fatal flaw. The swing group felt dismissed by the Dems and listened to by the GOP. The "adults are in the room" attitude almost always backfires.
Unfortunately most Democratic/liberal donors just don't view that as a good investment.
Meanwhile right-wing billionaires are happy to piss away money to get Ben Shapiro et al trending on Facebook.
Same thing hurt Hillary in the Blue Wall. It's why many see Dems as the party of the elites. I still don't get why Obama's ground game was never made a basic best practice.
Was it a low turnout election? I think Murphy got more votes this year than in 2017.
Honestly Dems need to stop hanging so much policy on the federal govt. I said this about community college; if Mississippi and Tennessee (some of the poorest states in the country) have free community college, then there's zero excuse for any blue state not doing it too. Don't wait for the feds, call your local, county, and state officials and push for it at that level.
If McAuliffe needed federal Dems to give him an education policy, then he was always doomed. With how our federal govt works, blue and purple state Dems should be pushing even more for local solutions. The feds aren't reliable. Turn New England, the West Coast, the Sun Belt, etc... into paradises of good policy, and if the feds catch up, great!
Good point. Can't argue with that. We do live in a Federalist system.
Cant watch because I expect the cringe and facepalming to sink so deep into my skull it may cause a hemorrhage. But let me guess, pragmatism and rationale are still dead?
The don't want Trump but then vote for the guy most like trump, along with the bat shitters that also got elected statewide.
Why did they think Youngkin would be better? They just don't give a shit about teachers? It's just I don't like that the pandemic happened. Also Trump supported him.
They seem lost, but it also seems like the education issue was just completely tone deaf. I don't understand the I'll just vote for a shit human cause things are hard. They want teachers to do more, but have no ideas as to what. Strange people.
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Teachers have been disrespected forever in this country. And they're a common scapegoat for the GOP.
There'a a reason Cardona keeps visiting CT so much and other places not so much. Education is not currently the federal domain to lead and build, but to support states' systems. It's easier to look like you're supporting states' systems in a friendlier (and for him "hometown") environment.
I don't know how to fix a statewide system I have no control over, either. The teachers union in my town made their first endorsement in an election ever, and it wasn't for the Democrat. I feel lost about it too, does that make me strange? No I'm not going to pick a youngkin just because he spoke to me and the other candidate didn't, of course, but parents have fewer options than you think they do.
But this whole fraud-audit thing Trump did? It made people feel super important, and they're still turning out. What Democrat ever demanded going on a rampage across multiple states to audit state voter rolls and polling places to see who was blocked or dropped from voting? Wouldn't that make people feel important? Instead they publicly call elections free and fair no matter what happens, and leave it to resource-strapped non-profit judicial outfits to try and sue in the background.
I don't know how to fix a statewide system I have no control over, either. The teachers union in my town made their first endorsement in an election ever, and it wasn't for the Democrat. I feel lost about it too, does that make me strange? No I'm not going to pick a youngkin just because he spoke to me and the other candidate didn't, of course, but parents have fewer options than you think they do.
But this whole fraud-audit thing Trump did? It made people feel super important, and they're still turning out. What Democrat ever demanded going on a rampage across multiple states to audit state voter rolls and polling places to see who was blocked or dropped from voting? Wouldn't that make people feel important? Instead they publicly call elections free and fair no matter what happens, and leave it to resource-strapped non-profit judicial outfits to try and sue in the background.
These people are trash but we really need to look past their Karenisms and bring them back into the fold. We really cannot possibly lose the suburbs. The entire Democratic Party project relies on the suburbs.
Terry ran a godawful campaign. Period. He did nothing to counter the school nonsense and kept doing dumb shit like scaring them with Trump.
I would not blow off these folks as "Karens" and ignore them. That's a formula for easy losses in 2022. You had swing counties such as Morris County in NJ swing more than 10 points against Democrats since 2020. Clearly the electorate hasn't changed in such a short time. The electorate generally agrees with the Democrats on most positions- McAuliffe let this school thing get out of hand which I think every Democrat will learn from. Murphy had no ad presence either which was inexcusable since Ciaterelli flooded radio and YouTube with his ads which were almost entirely about taxes. He did well with that strategy overall.
Passing policies to help Americans will help the Democrats message. Can't afford unforced errors again if we want to have success in 2022. It's not that hard really but candidates are going to have to put in hard work.
McAuliffe again I have to reiterate was an abysmally bad candidate which played a huge role in him losing
People can say they're tired of hearing anti-Trump shit, but the fact is McAuliffe won 200K more voters than Northam, who won what was previously VA's highest turnout gubernatorial election by 9 points. His gaffe about parents was obviously a race-ending moment, and his campaign was bad insofar as any losing candidate's campaign was a bad one. But since last Tuesday there's been this prevailing notion that McAuliffe was always bad and his campaign was shit from top to bottom and all the Trump-focused messaging was ill-conceived. When the fact is, any other year, and he would've been governor. If he hadn't said that thing about parents he'd have won. If the infrastructure bill had passed a week ago he might have still won. If VA's schools had opened earlier he would have won.
It was a death-by-a-thousand-cuts loss, where some of the cuts were his fault and others were not.
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