US PoliEra |OT12| The Moscow Project

pigeon · Nov 17, 2018

Raster said:
These rules are going to be gone when the GOP takes back the House. I don't see how this isn't bad and pretty much blackmailing Pelosi.

People keep asserting this, but I don't think there's any evidence for it. Once you enact a reform that strengthens individual members, it's very hard to get individual members to roll it back again.

Also, frankly, I don't actually think Pelosi needs the power to stop bills that a majority of Congress supports from becoming law.

CrocM · Nov 17, 2018

Cyprinodon Martius said:
That's all well and good, but it isn't the more progressive voices that are challenging her.

That's disappointing. I get what ya'll are saying that it doesn't matter this cycle, but still there's no good explanation why a progressive would seriously consider PayGo.

Autodidact · Nov 17, 2018

Raster said:
These rules are going to be gone when the GOP takes back the House. I don't see how this isn't bad and pretty much blackmailing Pelosi.

Maybe, maybe not.

They also lobbied Ryan for these changes. The document describing the reforms has been available for months and months, way before they lost the House.

Also, they might keep them because the changes empower individual members of both parties regardless of who holds the gavel. Brother pigeon made this point to me, and I see he made it to you above.

The Speaker still controls the House, sets the schedule, can force votes on bills (just can no longer prevent votes on overwhelmingly popular ones, like DACA), and still has all his/her constitutional power.

JustinP · Nov 17, 2018

pigeon said:
I'm kind of glad that people are coming around to weakening the Speaker being an okay thing.

If these changes had existed last Congress DACA would be law today.

But will these limitations still exist next time republicans have power?

The rules generally seem fine but I'm not a fan of "fixing" government every time dems have power only to have republicans break it to give them more of an advantage every time they gain power.

Have a similar worry when it comes to gerrymandering. If we're tying one hand behind our back in blue states while republicans are throwing full punches with both hands, rules intended to fix government end up being exploited by republicans to do the opposite over the long term.

Kirblar · Nov 17, 2018

Raster said:
These rules are going to be gone when the GOP takes back the House. I don't see how this isn't bad and pretty much blackmailing Pelosi.

It's Ryan/Moulton/etc. bringing a nerf gun to a warzone and getting their base overrun because of it.

pigeon said:
People keep asserting this, but I don't think there's any evidence for it. Once you enact a reform that strengthens individual members, it's very hard to get individual members to roll it back again.

Also, frankly, I don't actually think Pelosi needs the power to stop bills that a majority of Congress supports from becoming law.

GOP requires the "Hastert Rule" in order to keep the FC from revolting- their internal issues are different than the ones the Dems have.

JustinP · Nov 17, 2018

Autodidact said:
Maybe, maybe not.

They also lobbied Ryan for these changes. The document describing the reforms has been available for months and months, way before they lost the House.

Also, they might keep them because the changes empower individual members of both parties regardless of who holds the gavel. Brother pigeon made this point to me, and I see he made it to you above.

The Speaker still controls the House, sets the schedule, can force votes on bills (just can no longer prevent votes on overwhelmingly popular ones, like DACA), and still has all his/her constitutional power.

The problem solving caucus is half gop, half dem. Why didn't more republicans push Ryan to accept these rules back when they were proposed? How did these rules get their in the first place if members value their individual power so much when many of the proposals are just reversing changes republicans made? Seems very optimistic.

Kirblar · Nov 17, 2018

JustinP said:
The problem solving caucus is half gop, half dem. Why didn't more republicans push Ryan to accept these rules back when they were proposed? How did these rules get their in the first place if members value their individual power so much? Seems very optimistic.

The only reason the PS are empowered here is because of the Ryan/Moulton crew. Paul Ryan had a larger majority than Pelosi does now and the FC are a larger % of the GOP house membership, making it easier for them to extract direct concessions.

JustinP · Nov 17, 2018

Kirblar said:
The only reason the PS are empowered here is because of the Ryan/Moulton crew. Paul Ryan had a larger majority than Pelosi does now.

I think everyone agrees on that point. People are debating whether these rules weaken dems or not.

Autodidact · Nov 17, 2018

JustinP said:
The problem solving caucus is half gop, half dem. Why didn't more republicans push Ryan to accept these rules back when they were proposed? How did these rules get their in the first place if members value their individual power so much when many of the proposals are just reversing changes republicans made? Seems very optimistic.

Kirblar said:
The only reason the PS are empowered here is because of the Ryan/Moulton crew. Paul Ryan had a larger majority than Pelosi does now and the FC are a larger % of the GOP house membership, making it easier for them to extract direct concessions.

Also, GOP leadership the last two years was more concerned with adhering to the Pedophile Rule and placating the Freedom Caucus, hence Ryan's ignoring these reforms... and thus not passing popular bills like DACA.

Kirblar · Nov 17, 2018

JustinP said:
I think everyone agrees on that point. People are debating whether these rules weaken dems or not.

I think they do at the committee level moreso than at the Speakership level.

Autodidact · Nov 17, 2018

Kirblar said:
I think they do at the committee level moreso than at the Speakership level.

Right. They weaken the Rules Committee more than anything.

Right now, the Rules Committee can pass "closed rules" for most bills, blocking debate and amendments on the floor. These reforms would require a 3/5 majority to impose such a rule - in other words, the bills passed without amendments are probably going to be popular and/or inoffensive anyway.

The only practical change is that we'll have to vote down a bunch of GOP amendments on our bills because progressive legislation isn't getting the 3/5 to be passed under closed rules, but they'll still be passed in whatever form the Democratic majority wants because we have the overall numbers advantage to pass the bills and reject GOP amendments.

Let me phrase it another way: we want Pelosi and co. to investigate Trump and pass popular legislation and dare him to veto it. These reforms impede neither of those goals.

NookSports · Nov 17, 2018

JustinP said:
The problem solving caucus is half gop, half dem. Why didn't more republicans push Ryan to accept these rules back when they were proposed? How did these rules get their in the first place if members value their individual power so much when many of the proposals are just reversing changes republicans made? Seems very optimistic.

House Republicans haven't had a humbling since the 2010 midterms.

Sucks that it took their loss to want to do this, but that shouldn't prevent Dems from changing the rules to where they would want them to be the next time they're in the minority

pigeon · Nov 17, 2018

JustinP said:
But will these limitations still exist next time republicans have power?

I still think so, yes.

It's one thing to assume Republicans are all disgusting quislings that will always support whatever is worst for America, but it's another to assume they will happily vote for their power to be taken away and vested in the Speaker. The last two years are mostly evidence of how little power the Speaker actually has to force reps to advance the Speaker's agenda.

JustinP said:
Have a similar worry when it comes to gerrymandering. If we're tying one hand behind our back in blue states while republicans are throwing full punches with both hands, rules intended to fix government end up being exploited by republicans to do the opposite over the long term.

On this one I think we mostly have no choice. The GOP can be antidemocratic because they are, actually, antidemocratic in their goals. If our ultimate desire is pluralistic democratic values we need to start as we mean to go on. Vanguard liberalism has been tried and it wasn't great. I for one do not want to rename all the months. Think of the wasted calendars!

JustinP said:
The problem solving caucus is half gop, half dem. Why didn't more republicans push Ryan to accept these rules back when they were proposed? How did these rules get their in the first place if members value their individual power so much when many of the proposals are just reversing changes republicans made? Seems very optimistic.

The stuff about the Speaker and the Rules Committee goes back til 1950 at least. The most recent change relevant to these rules is probably making discharge petitions public knowledge in 1993.

Autodidact said:
Right. They weaken the Rules Committee more than anything.

Right now, the Rules Committee can pass "closed rules" for most bills, blocking debate and amendments on the floor. These reforms would require a 3/5 majority to impose such a rule - in other words, the bills passed without amendments are probably going to be popular and/or inoffensive anyway.

The only practical change is that we'll have to vote down a bunch of GOP amendments on our bills because progressive legislation isn't getting the 3/5 to be passed under closed rules, but they'll still be passed in whatever form the Democratic majority wants because we have the overall numbers advantage to pass the bills and reject GOP amendments.

Let me phrase it another way: we want Pelosi and co. to investigate Trump and pass popular legislation and dare him to veto it. These reforms impede neither of those goals.

This is right, although I would note that the Speaker staffs the Rules Committee, so in effect it's just the Speaker's cabinet. Also, we can probably pass semi-closed rules, so not very bill will be votarama. We'll have to allow one or two germane amendments to get votes.

Wilsongt · Nov 17, 2018

Kirblar said:
It's Ryan/Moulton/etc. bringing a nerf gun to a warzone and getting their base overrun because of it.

GOP requires the "Hastert Rule" in order to keep the FC from revolting- their internal issues are different than the ones the Dems have.

I still find it hilarious they have that so called "Hastert Rule" given his child diddling nature.

Kaitos · Nov 17, 2018

So now that Katie Hobbs has won the Secretary of State office (Gaynor conceded last night), we picked up 3 of the statewide offices up this cycle (SoS, Superintendent, Senator), and lost Gov, AG, Treasurer, and Mine Inspector. Not bad! And SoS is the 2nd position, so if Ducey leaves for some reason, Hobbs becomes governor.

Kirblar · Nov 17, 2018

Wilsongt said:
I still find it hilarious they have that so called "Hastert Rule" given his child diddling nature.

All the more reason to bring it up whenever you can.

JustinP · Nov 17, 2018

More napkin math:

The current rules for house committee ratios seem ill-defined so I can't really estimate how it'd look with current rules moving forward with the dem house, but:

If republicans had enacted the rules themselves for the current congress, it would have taken them from a margin of +120 committee seats (now) to a margin of about +82 committee seats (now, but with proposed rules). Dems will only have about +60 committee seat margin in the next congress with these rules.

MizerMan · Nov 17, 2018

Kaitos said:
So now that Katie Hobbs has won the Secretary of State office (Gaynor conceded last night), we picked up 3 of the statewide offices up this cycle (SoS, Superintendent, Senator), and lost Gov, AG, Treasurer, and Mine Inspector. Not bad! And SoS is the 2nd position, so if Ducey leaves for some reason, Hobbs becomes governor.

Righteous.

cameron · Nov 17, 2018

"Soon":

John Hudson @John_Hudson

Sarah Sanders confirms that the president did speak with Secretary of State Pompeo and CIA Director Haspel during his flight. She says State Dept will have a statement soon. Expectation is something on Khashoggi and CIA assessment

less · Nov 17, 2018

I have no expectations of Trump pinning the blame on Mbs or at least naming him as a strong candidate. If Trump remains true to his usual self it'll be a trashfire of a statement.

Soul Skater · Nov 17, 2018

Kaitos said:
Mine Inspector..

FUCK

Aaron · Nov 17, 2018

Kaitos said:
So now that Katie Hobbs has won the Secretary of State office (Gaynor conceded last night), we picked up 3 of the statewide offices up this cycle (SoS, Superintendent, Senator), and lost Gov, AG, Treasurer, and Mine Inspector. Not bad! And SoS is the 2nd position, so if Ducey leaves for some reason, Hobbs becomes governor.

Arizona became a swing state right under everyone's noses.

Tried to tell y'all, people dismissed Flake's close win in 2012 and Clinton's close loss in 2016. Yeah Trump is expediting it but the pieces have been there for a long time.

Put it this way, compare Arizona and Georgia to Missouri and Indiana. Obama fought hard for all those states (except AZ which was written off due to McCain's favorite son status), and even won Indiana. Four years later he didn't campaign in any of them. Romney scored near double-digit wins in Indiana and Missouri, two states that were previously decided by razor thin margins, while Arizona and Georgia more or less states the same with neither party lifting a finger.

Soul Skater · Nov 17, 2018

Who can we run in Alaska.

Sullivan only won by 3 points even in an absolutely trash year for Dems

Murkowski was pushed by her consituents to vote with us on most major political fights outside of the one she was bribed on

Sullivan voted for everything and his approvals are trash

We can flip that seat and need to go hard for it

Kaitos · Nov 17, 2018

British politics is very stupid right now.

RolandGunner · Nov 17, 2018

Kaitos said:
So now that Katie Hobbs has won the Secretary of State office (Gaynor conceded last night), we picked up 3 of the statewide offices up this cycle (SoS, Superintendent, Senator), and lost Gov, AG, Treasurer, and Mine Inspector. Not bad! And SoS is the 2nd position, so if Ducey leaves for some reason, Hobbs becomes governor.

Ducey's term limited so this is a real thing. He could have run for McCains seat in '20 but now it seems more likely he'll wait until '22, if the Dems hold it.

Ac30 · Nov 17, 2018

Kaitos said:
British politics is very stupid right now.

Well the deal sucks in that it's locking the U.K. in a customs union with none of the rest of the benefits of the EU, but like, no shit that was going to happen.

Kaitos · Nov 17, 2018

Ac30 said:
Well the deal sucks in that it's locking the U.K. in a customs union with none of the rest of the benefits of the EU, but like, no shit that was going to happen.

I love that she thought they'd still get MEPs!! YOU ARE LEAVING THE EU

Soul Skater · Nov 17, 2018

The UK is just diet America right now

Almost same level of insanity just masked in an extra layer of sillyness

Armaros · Nov 17, 2018

Soul Skater said:
The UK is just diet America right now

Almost same level of insanity just masked in an extra layer of sillyness

Just replace American expcetionalism with Empire and WW2 nostalgia

Y2Kev · Nov 17, 2018

Uk politicians seem almost universally awful.

Y2Kev · Nov 17, 2018

Pelosi : Symphony of the Night :: Tim Ryan : bubsy 3d

Nordicus · Nov 17, 2018

Y2Kev said:
Pelosi : Symphony of the Night :: Tim Ryan : bubsy 3d

That's not fair

At least Bubsy 3D is infamous and not a "who?"

Aaron · Nov 17, 2018

Nordicus said:
That's not fair

At least Bubsy 3D is infamous and not a "who?"

Jersey devil

Nordicus · Nov 17, 2018

Aaron said:
Jersey devil

Either that, or if we cut him a bit of slack, 40 Winks

BlastProcessing · Nov 17, 2018

DinosaurusRex · Nov 17, 2018

Y2Kev said:
Pelosi : Symphony of the Night :: Tim Ryan : bubsy 3d

Thank you, I was googling screenshots of bubsy 3D to respond with, and now I know this exists:
https://www.polygon.com/2013/11/12/5096352/arcane-kids-bubsy-3d-is-a-strange-and-terrifying-tribute

Edit: Kap should have kneeled at a vets grave in thanks on Monday when Trump was a no show.

Autodidact · Nov 17, 2018

BlastProcessing said:

Sluggo is lit.

Mimi is woke.

You all need to buy Caution.

Soul Skater · Nov 17, 2018

I really didn't know Nixon made a serious push for Health care back in the 70s until recently. Read through the plans. It looked amazing for the time

Why the fuck didn't we jump on that.

YamchasRevenge · Nov 17, 2018

Aaron said:
Jersey devil

Jersey Devil was a cool idea and had good atmosphere, but the game itself is the most generic PS1-era 3D platformer ever.

Tim Ryan is less than generic imo

ImTheresaMay · Nov 17, 2018

Y2Kev said:
Uk politicians seem almost universally awful.

Nah Jeremy Corbyn is arguably the greatest politician in western society.

Geist · Nov 17, 2018

Soul Skater said:
The UK is just diet America right now

Almost same level of insanity just masked in an extra layer of sillyness

BlastProcessing said:

Even if that were true, how does that make police better?

Autodidact · Nov 17, 2018

Soul Skater said:
Why the fuck didn't we jump on that.

Because we assumed the next Democratic president would be as progressive as the Congress was at the time.

Carter was to the right of congressional Democrats.

If Ted Kennedy had taken the deal, we basically would've had the ACA in the '70s, and we could've been improving upon it this whole time. It would also have been safe from Republican sabotage because they never had a trifecta until 2001. Tip O'Neill as Speaker and Bill as president would've kept the system safe.

The lesson was to get whatever good stuff you can from the GOP and then fix the small issues later. It's the view I take toward this criminal justice bill.

Royalan · Nov 17, 2018

How...how could you be a fan of Mariah Fucking Carey and not know where she'd side on Kap issue?

Did they just...I dunno, develop amnesia on the entirety of her career post-her debut album? I mean, Mariah is hella about that blackness.

jack_package_200 · Nov 17, 2018

Confession: I have never listened to a single Mariah song

Soul Skater · Nov 17, 2018

jack_package_200 said:
Confession: I have never listened to a single Mariah song

You've heard all I want for Christmas is you

It's not possible that you haven't

Antrax · Nov 17, 2018

Aaron said:
Arizona became a swing state right under everyone's noses.

Tried to tell y'all, people dismissed Flake's close win in 2012 and Clinton's close loss in 2016. Yeah Trump is expediting it but the pieces have been there for a long time.

Put it this way, compare Arizona and Georgia to Missouri and Indiana. Obama fought hard for all those states (except AZ which was written off due to McCain's favorite son status), and even won Indiana. Four years later he didn't campaign in any of them. Romney scored near double-digit wins in Indiana and Missouri, two states that were previously decided by razor thin margins, while Arizona and Georgia more or less states the same with neither party lifting a finger.

A colleague and I were talking about AZ, and he was adamant that AZ wasn't a swing state. So I told him to pull up their last statewide elections and check the trend lol.

Kaitos said:
British politics is very stupid right now.

At least Trump can be gone after awhile. Brexit looks to be permanent since no major party (with a shot at No. 10) in the UK opposes Brexit.

Soul Skater · Nov 17, 2018

Autodidact said:
Because we assumed the next Democratic president would be as progressive as the Congress was at the time.

Carter was to the right of congressional Democrats.

If Ted Kennedy had taken the deal, we basically would've had the ACA in the '70s, and we could've been improving upon it this whole time. It would also have been safe from Republican sabotage because they never had a trifecta until 2001. Tip O'Neill as Speaker and Bill as president would've kept the system safe.

The lesson was to get whatever good stuff you can from the GOP and then fix the small issues later. It's the view I take toward this criminal justice bill.

We really thought a return to FDR/LBJ electoral dominance was right around the corner didn't we

Only to be straight up fucked over and over for decades. Ugh.

Autodidact · Nov 17, 2018

ImTheresaMay said:
Nah Jeremy Corbyn is arguably the greatest politician in western society.

Nah.

jack_package_200 said:
Confession: I have never listened to a single Mariah song

Educate yourself.

Teggy · Nov 17, 2018

#facts

Autodidact · Nov 17, 2018

Katie Hobbs being SoS gives us more than a legitimate shot at winning AZ in 2020. I still maintain that Hillary would've won it sans Comey. At the very least it would've been a nailbiter.

US PoliEra |OT12| The Moscow Project

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