Fair, but I've been living in a systems (both higher ed and k-12) under sustained attack for quite some time and also run into a whole bunch of weird and stupid assholes on the reg so part of me is a little worried that modernity has done for the human race.
Or at the very least we produced a uniquely shitty generation in the Boomers and we're in a race against time to see if their overwhelming entitlement ends us before power changes hands more fully.
Another good gut check is to look at how the campaigns are behaving and what they are saying with "body language" so to speak. As well as behavior of surrogates.
For example, Obama had a lot of democratic voices shift away from him in his first term and perceived weakness against Romney and Tea Party crazies. The caucus has remained very unified behind Biden. Conversely, you're seeing pretty open defections against Trump from his more moderate party members, telling you that there's a weakness of Trump within their perceived constituency. (Not to mention some pretty embarrassing results in the Primaries for Trump, and that's even in comparison to Biden who has a legitimate protest vote against him on his policies.)
Additionally, Trump has been flailing around key topics trying to find a "appease everyone position" on abortion (which despite constant downplaying by punditry, has been a defining element of every election recently) and the Hamas/Israel war (his support amongst Jewish voters is disastrously low) which doesn't suggest someone who thinks he's winning every swing state or nationally by 6+.
Biden is uniquely unpopular but we're also in an uniquely polarized era. He's also the president so everyone blames him for everything but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't vote for him.
The other intangible that Trump has to deal with that won't be felt for a few months yet is how much Biden's team has leapfrogged him on advertising and as such already defined Trump. Clawing back the narrative is always harder after the fact. And while it isn't really clear how important or if at all a ground game and advertising will be with two "incumbent" people at the top of the ticket, this could be a major weakness for Trump as the election approaches and his party is broke.
Trump's polling lead right now is seemingly in non-voters by an overwhelming majority. If that is the case... he actually needs to get people out and for him a ground game would be critically important. But if all of the state parties are broke and his campaign has no money... who's going to get those non-voters off their asses?