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Oct 25, 2017
6,086
Depends on the candidate for Dems. If it's another Hillary (Beto, Biden, Kamala, etc) then it's 50/50 either way possibly. If it's Warren, Bernie, or some other candidate that actually knows how to approach the midwest, then maybe 65/35 in Blue favor. Nowhere near enough to say for sure either way though.
 

Ogodei

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,256
Coruscant
Probably right about at 45%, I'd say. Right about where his approvals peaked.

My guess is it all comes down to Wisconsin and Arizona, unless Dems manage to get their act together in Florida.

Edit: assuming the race is competitive, at least. There's pretty much no universe out there where Trump does better than his 2016 performance, but it's more likely that there would be a Dem landslide instead and flip Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas, in order of likelihood from least to greatest.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,395
Depends on the candidate for Dems. If it's another Hillary (Beto, Biden, Kamala, etc) then it's 50/50 either way possibly. If it's Warren, Bernie, or some other candidate that actually knows how to approach the midwest, then maybe 65/35 in Blue favor. Nowhere near enough to say for sure either way though.
Do you even know what made Hillary...Hillary? That you're somehow putting Biden in the pile of "unable to appeal to midwest white voters" says you do not.
 

Version 3.0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,201
At least 50/50. No matter who the Democratic candidate is, Trump will still get all the free press. 2016 proved that news stories about Trump being overwhelmingly negative mean absolutely nothing to GOP voters, nor to "independent" voters that voted Trump. His poor approval ratings mean nothing. Story after story and poll after poll have shown us that even voters directly harmed by his policies refuse to change their minds.

He should lose, according to all normal political metrics. But in 2016, he should have not just lost, but lost in a landslide, by all normal political metrics. He had dozens of career-ending controversies by then, and dozens more since, for any other politician. And he will receive roughly half the votes, guaranteed. Enough to win. Only the distribution of those votes will determine whether he does.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,086
Do you even know what made Hillary...Hillary? That you're somehow putting Biden in the pile of "unable to appeal to midwest white voters" says you do not.
Celebrity appeal, relations to past presidents, and a stark love for "bipartisanship" are pretty much the three things Hillary had going for her. Biden also happens to have all three of those and is riding pretty hard on them.

Edit: I will admit that the one quality of hers the Midwest hated most (very pro-free trade) isn't necessarily in the equation with Joe, but the other points still stand pretty tall.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,580
100% Anyone delusional enough to underestimate the incumbent bonus needs a swift kick in the arse.
2020 is going to be hard as shit to win for anyone but him.
 

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
50/50 as of right now, it's always going to be about that, but if there is a recession that hits say next year, those odds probably drop below 50 for him. That will be the big issue for him, if he gets stuck with a recession on his hands he's likely screwed.

But people who think he'll just lose by rolling over also haven't learned anything either. Politically whether you like him or not, he is a very adept candidate who can flip the script and presents a lot of challenges for any one that runs against him.

Beating him is certainly doable, but you cannot take him lightly.
 
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ZiggyPalffyLA

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
4,504
Los Angeles, California
100% Anyone delusional enough to underestimate the incumbent bonus needs a swift kick in the arse.
2020 is going to be hard as shit to win for anyone but him.

This. While the Dems are attacking each other during the primary and fighting over space on the debate stage, Trump will have the spotlight all to himself. It's really fucking hard to beat an incumbent.
 

Xx 720

Member
Nov 3, 2017
3,920
Against Biden, Beto or a generic dem, not a chance. His approval rating is 43 and hasn't really changed in months. Global PMI is going below 50, meaning a recession probably will hit within a year. If that happens he will lose by near Reagan levels.

All of the bullshit he sold about jobs coming back will backfire. He's going to lose Penn and Ohio.
Elizabeth Warren is a guaranteed loss, she way way too Hillary Clintonesque in her campaigning style, is percieved as fake and the dna test will make her look even phonier.
 

Atolm

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,829
If Bush Jr won twice after setting the world aflame I don't see how Trump can lose the re-election.
 

VectorPrime

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
11,781
If Bush Jr won twice after setting the world aflame I don't see how Trump can lose the re-election.

Bush Jr had a 60% approval rating at this point in his Presidency and by the 04 election was still widely popular with a War most people still supported. These are facts not your baseless feelings.
 

Deleted member 2109

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,927
Not good imo.

He barely won against the worst candidate in years. If the Dem hits the midwest hard I think he or she's got it.
 

Aurongel

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
7,065
Dems have gained ground in the swing states that moved towards him at the eleventh hour of the election post Comey letter. I think it's very doable if Dems hit the same demographics they did during the midterms. If their elected candidates fuck up the way Hillary did or fared poorly against Trump in a debate then I think it's his election to win.

Trump may have the incumbent advantage but his unpopular approval ratings are an acute point of weakness that dems can exploit if they're organized and on message.

Personally, I think it's a super close to 50/50 as it could be. My gut tells me that Trumps approval rating is going to steadily tick upwards towards 2020.
 

aerozombie

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,075
DNC has being making mistakes and individuals like Omar are causing controversy that makes them look bad. All while having the Mueller report fall back on them, a solid economy, and other factors that are forcing them at times to fall back on prior marketing/campaigning like the tax changes that already done and set. The Republicans had their own disarray and came close to the brink, but it was when the GOP leadership realized Trump had the chance to win, they stopped pushing against him and rallied behind him (don't forget, the GOP leadership was against Trump for a very long time during the primaries, they caved to his popularity and saved their party, though at a cost).

If the DNC wants to win they need to stop Omar from making Israel an issue, as they will lose on it especially when a lot of the DNC funding comes from Jewish donors. Also, they need to ensure they do not encourage purity tests, the whole "You aren't my friend if you don't agree with me" spiel (its always funny when the guy who can barely maintain a few friends has an ego trip and thinks this will work), and other stupid methods that disenfranchise large populations of voters and overlook the possibility of changing peoples minds. You need keep everyone in the same pool of Americans so that no voter is thinking that voting Dem is like voting for another country, it needs to feel like just another part of the USA. If the DNC's voter base keeps playing the us or them game, they will lose again.

Lastly, and most importantly, they need to just have Biden go up against Trump. No rigging the primary again, just get the other potentials to realize that Biden is the safest bet, especially compared to the others he is running against for the primary. They shouldn't play any games or try to pull some "Lets get an X in the white house!" else they are just giving away the election.
 

UltraMagnus

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
15,670
Dems have gained ground in the swing states that moved towards him at the eleventh hour of the election post Comey letter. I think it's very doable if Dems hit the same demographics they did during the midterms. If their elected candidates fuck up the way Hillary did or fared poorly against Trump in a debate then I think it's his election to win.

Trump may have the incumbent advantage but his unpopular approval ratings are an acute point of weakness that dems can exploit if they're organized and on message.

Personally, I think it's a super close to 50/50 as it could be. My gut tells me that Trumps approval rating is going to steadily tick upwards towards 2020.

If they hold Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin they should be in good. The thing I will have to give Biden is he's probably quite strong in those three states.
 

Akileese

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,702
Not good imo.

He barely won against the worst candidate in years. If the Dem hits the midwest hard I think he or she's got it.

They need to maintain the 2018 momentum, which isn't impossible, but that starts with a strong candidate who can excite (as much as possible) the base. The difference between dems and republicans is falling in line. Most Republicans will hem and haw but will vote party line because that's what they do. Democrats typically don't do this if they dislike the candidate, but will for the right one (see Beto in Texas or 8 years of Obama). I have no idea who that candidate is as it's way too early in the cycle to even have an idea of who the front runner is.
 

Polioliolio

Member
Nov 6, 2017
5,399
Well they seem to get away with everything, including the death of any trace of civil decorum, so I do believe it could happen. I mean, look at the reality we live in.. how have we awoken to each day where that awful person just keeps adding to his awfulness and anyone who can stop or impede it doesn't have the guts or the desire for it? It's unbelievable.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,705


Trump gets no bounce at all from Barr memo on the Mueller report and nearly half of Americans think he tried to obstruct justice. Via @POLITICO_Steve on new @politico/@MorningConsult poll.
https://t.co/QeMgFo8oKf

don't worry, trump fans, i'm sure his plan to try and take away people's healthcare again will do the trick!

it sure worked well in 2018 :)
 

Amibguous Cad

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,033
At least 50/50. No matter who the Democratic candidate is, Trump will still get all the free press. 2016 proved that news stories about Trump being overwhelmingly negative mean absolutely nothing to GOP voters, nor to "independent" voters that voted Trump. His poor approval ratings mean nothing. Story after story and poll after poll have shown us that even voters directly harmed by his policies refuse to change their minds.

He should lose, according to all normal political metrics. But in 2016, he should have not just lost, but lost in a landslide, by all normal political metrics. He had dozens of career-ending controversies by then, and dozens more since, for any other politician. And he will receive roughly half the votes, guaranteed. Enough to win. Only the distribution of those votes will determine whether he does.

No, he shouldn't have, that's the crazy thing. We all expected Trump to underperform the fundamentals and the models because he was clearly insane and unqualified. But, in fact, a narrow Republican win was basically what you would expect from the demographics and economic performance leading up to election day.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,051
Now THAT is surprising to me.
I'm not surprised. I mean whose mind is going to have changed? His base will believe anything he says. The never-Trumpers obviously won't believe the non-exoneration exoneration. Of the few not in those camps, most are intelligent enough to know that Trump lies a lot and that we haven't seen the report, only a summary provided by a Trump stooge. He may well have obstructed but not risen to the level of being prosecutable, which is a fairly high bar.
 

DrLight66

Banned
Nov 27, 2017
296
Low but i think he'd trounce Warren, Booker, O'Rourke, Gillibrand and Klobuchar

If Democrats were smart they'll hit Trump over the head repeatedly on wanting to gut people's health insurance, especially older folks with Medicare.
 

Koo

Member
Dec 10, 2017
1,863
Guaranteed. 2020 is a long way off; enough for him to improve his image enough. Plus we're going to have quite the battle royale once the Dem primaries start in earnest. It's going to get bloody and worse than 2016. Trump will sit back and laugh the whole way while we lose our minds.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,018
Factor in more gerrymandering, more voter intimidation, more Russian interference, that wonderful combo of American xenophobia and voter apathy, and he's probably gonna win. Midterms were a fluke, as was Obama's presidency. Conservatives have no morals and liberals have no spine. All the damage that can be done will be done.
 

DrLight66

Banned
Nov 27, 2017
296
Factor in more gerrymandering, more voter intimidation, more Russian interference, that wonderful combo of American xenophobia and voter apathy, and he's probably gonna win. Midterms were a fluke, as was Obama's presidency. Conservatives have no morals and liberals have no spine. All the damage that can be done will be done.

Gerrymandering is irrelevant in voting for President. A huge change from 2016 is that Dems will be fired up to vote against Trump, and expect African Americans to show up in huge numbers unlike last time with all of the racist crap that Trump has done since taking office.
 

Deleted member 2171

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,731
Low if the Democrats remember to visit all 50 states during the campaign this time.

I'm more concerned about 2024 and if Trump finds a way to run a third time.

The question of if a president can become a vice president hasn't really been answered, but Trump is so thinskinned he wouldn't even be able to bear being called the VP even if he was still functionally holding all the power.
 

Log!

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,414
Low for multiple reasons:
-He doesn't have Hillary to depress the Democratic vote.
-He drives turnout for his political opponents like nothing else. This plus Hillary not running means 2020 might be absolutely historic with its turnout, which favors Democrats.
-He's very unpopular despite the Obama Economy.
-He and his administration is physically incapable of not fucking up massively at every opportunity. Even the results Mueller investigation, which the Trump admin could have cemented as a real victory is going to be tainted now that it was revealed that AG Barr is going to send the Mueller report to the White House to redact. It's literally the win this administration needed to remove doubts as to its legitimacy, and they're ruining it by making it look like there's still a coverup ongoing.

All the Democratic nominee would need is not to get overconfident and to let Trump torpedo his campaign at every opportunity.
 
Feb 16, 2018
2,686
depends who runs against him

the way the election works, he only needs to win in a few states like florida, pennsylvania, ohio

democrats could easily screw up and run someone who's only popular in places like california / new york. maybe the politicians will find it easier to just run against trump for another 4 years instead of actually having to run a campaign for their 2022/2024 elections
 

erlim

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,513
London
Very likely. He's now probably got the good will of the public to take down the media he doesn't like. He will manufacture some crisis to stay in power, none of the DNC candidates can offer a serious alternative to his batshit larger than life character.
 

bixio

Banned
Mar 10, 2019
192
100%, are the democrats even running anyone? The election is around the corner and there's been almost zero opposition

Weee we're doomed
 

dapperbandit

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,162
I think the incumbent thing will not do him favours. While the economy has been good, the people that put him in office voted for him because of what he was saying and I don't think he's living up to it.

The wall has not been built, no matter what he says.
He's stopped talking about Buy American, Hire American and revitalising manufacturing jobs. Now he's talking about all the migrant labour that's needed and it's pissing off his base.
There's been no big infrastructure package to rebuild or replace all the airports roads, bridges etc.
He can be easily pinned in a debate with "kids in cages".

None of that matters if the Democratic Nominee sucks though