Wkd Box Office - 12•13-15•19 - Jumanji Exceeds Expectations, Frozen 2 Passes 1B, No Jewels or Happy Holidays For Other New Releases

[Seeya]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_second_weekends_for_films

60%+ drops are not that rare for movies that make the amount of money these movies make. Is 67% on the high side sure but its not that far off the average.

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Thé way thé weekends fell did play a part, but honestly Christmas kind of saved it in relative terms.

I would like to be surprised that people have pulled out a right wing troll battle cry and seriously entertain it as a possible remedy for the unforgivable sin of *checks notes* releasing a film that only comes in 10th place in the all-time domestic opening weekends.

But I'm not.

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Companies and no rational business operates this way. They don't look at the overall ranking but trends. They didn't buy the Star Wars IP to run it into the ground over 10 years.

Honestly at this point I be George wishes he had given it, at a steal, to Warner Brothers or Sony.

Don't tell the haters that.

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Compared to any other Disney Star Wars film, heck, maybe ANY Star Wats film, TLJ fell off a cliff after month one.

 

[Deception]

Yep, Marvel has captured the hearts and minds of this generation of children.

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Yup, and with the MCU still going strong, whatever LucasFilms decides to do with the next set of films, it's going to be banking on the older fans rather than the newer fans unless they find a compelling way to entice the next generation. Not to mention, I feel like Marvel just has more mainstream appeal compared to Star Wars which still feels very much tied to "nerd culture" for lack of a better term.

 

[NealMcCauley]

Deadline has a small update on their article.

TROS: $190-195M
Cats: $8.5-10M
Bombshell: $5.5-7M

 

[jack_package_200]

I do think part of the problem is that they made a strong effort for almost all of the movies was to run as far away from the prequels as much as possible.

A generation grew up on those movies. Solo was the only one that paid it even the slightest bit lipservice.

 

[Mekanos]

Not to mention, I feel like Marvel just has more mainstream appeal compared to Star Wars which still feels very much tied to "nerd culture" for lack of a better term.

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I don't think that's really the case considering domestic gross for Star Wars is still very strong outside of Solo, higher than most Marvel movies. I mean, Force Awakens still has the domestic crown.

It's more that Marvel has been able to diversify its portfolio and work in all sorts of genres and settings to make the movies stand out on their own, and that they have a huge international fanbase. Nobody outside of North America, Europe, or Japan has any real cultural nostalgia for Star Wars.

Deadline has a small update on their article.

TROS: $190-195M
Cats: $8.5-10M
Bombshell: $5.5-7M

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190 seems bullish with a 50 true Friday. Feel like it's gonna settle around 185.

 

[RolandGunner]

Deadline has a small update on their article.

TROS: $190-195M
Cats: $8.5-10M
Bombshell: $5.5-7M

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Bombshell is the big surprise for me. I thought it had a real chance to break out.

 

[Tace]

I do think part of the problem is that they made a strong effort for almost all of the movies was to run as far away from the prequels as much as possible.

A generation grew up on those movies. Solo was the only one that paid it even the slightest bit lipservice.

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They definitely should have leveraged the prequels more. Shit as they were I grew up on them and didn't realize they were shit til much later

 

[Bronx-Man]

Maybe the big problem with Star Wars is that there's so many different types of fans that love wildly different parts of the franchise that trying to make a trilogy that would satisfy everyone would be impossible.

 

[jett]

I don't think it really matters if Kennedy remains in her position or not. The 180 after TLJ and the success of The Mandalorian provide a pretty clear picture for the future of the Star Wars franchise. I fully expect a "back to basics" strategy, I think it's safe to say that the Rian Johnson experiment will not happen again.

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How can it be even more back to basics than it already is.

Starwar desperately needs a shot of new blood in its arm.

 

[Bumrush]

Maybe the big problem with Star Wars is that there's so many different types of fans that love wildly different parts of the franchise that trying to make a trilogy that would satisfy everyone would be impossible.

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Yup, this is absolutely right.

 

[Randomly Generated]

One thing I think we can agree on is that I feel that the ST failed to capture the next generation of Star Wars fans in a reasonable way. Anecdotal, but none of my younger family members care about the brand or are interested in any of the movies.

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Who could guess kid aren't obsessed with characters created thirty years before they were born. These movies really should've focused on its original trio + Driver, who are all great, and I do think captured a lot of imaginations in the immediate aftermath of TFA.

 

[Alexandros]

How can it be even more back to basics than it already is.

Starwar desperately needs a shot of new blood in its arm.

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Well they're supposedly now done with the Skywalkers so we're due for something new.

 

[Seeya]

But but but YouTube told me Star Wars is dead!

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I mean it's underperforming.

I do think part of the problem is that they made a strong effort for almost all of the movies was to run as far away from the prequels as much as possible.

A generation grew up on those movies. Solo was the only one that paid it even the slightest bit lipservice.

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Not just the movies. For as bad as the films were, the secondary media was very successful. A LOT of people grew up on 'Clone Wars' shoes and toys with the movies being these big fun events that weren't really the true core of the brand.

It goes to show what a good conceptualists Georgie could middle his way into being, and it's the fatal flaw of the Disney Star Wars Era that's eating it alive.

 

[Gentlemen]

Thé way thé weekends fell did play a part, but honestly Christmas kind of saved it in relative terms.

Companies and no rational business operates this way. They don't look at the overall ranking but trends. They didn't buy the Star Wars IP to run it into the ground over 10 years.

Honestly at this point I be George wishes he had given it, at a steal, to Warner Brothers or Sony.



Compared to any other Disney Star Wars film, heck, maybe ANY Star Wats film, TLJ fell off a cliff after month one.

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failing to break top 10 all-time records is 'running it into the ground' now.

But your lack of perspective on these sorts of things is well documented so maybe I'm wasting my time with you.

 

[Seeya]

Maybe the big problem with Star Wars is that there's so many different types of fans that love wildly different parts of the franchise that trying to make a trilogy that would satisfy everyone would be impossible.

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This only becomes a problem when you're making unbalance media that isn't broadly appealing as intended. Big mainstream Franchises that fumble always end up in this 'fractured fanbase' state.

 

[Lionheart360]

Maybe the big problem with Star Wars is that there's so many different types of fans that love wildly different parts of the franchise that trying to make a trilogy that would satisfy everyone would be impossible.

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Right on the money. They need to branch out and make different types of movies/series within the same universe.

 

[msdstc]

failing to break top 10 all-time records is 'running it into the ground' now.

But your lack of perspective on these sorts of things is well documented so maybe I'm wasting my time with you.

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They have definitely burned the franchise out a bit. They went from planning an MCU-esque release schedule and rewriting the box office record book, to slowing down considerably, slowing down the release schedule, and even a bomb in the mix (solo was a box office disaster).

 

[Saucycarpdog]

You can't really say the Mandalorian is a success cause it's a "back to basics" star wars show.

It's probably more due to the fact that it's a star wars show available on a cheap and currently hot streaming platform.

Baby Yoda was probably half the marketing.

 

[UltraMagnus]

Thé way thé weekends fell did play a part, but honestly Christmas kind of saved it in relative terms.

Companies and no rational business operates this way. They don't look at the overall ranking but trends. They didn't buy the Star Wars IP to run it into the ground over 10 years.

Honestly at this point I be George wishes he had given it, at a steal, to Warner Brothers or Sony.



Compared to any other Disney Star Wars film, heck, maybe ANY Star Wats film, TLJ fell off a cliff after month one.

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Lucas was driving the brand into the gutter, AOTC would have become the norm for the IP if he had stayed on, ROTS was bailed out of that by having the whole "its Darth Vader! You have to see it!" hook.

 

[Gentlemen]

They have definitely burned the franchise out a bit. They went from planning an MCU-esque release schedule and rewriting the box office record book, to slowing down considerably, slowing down the release schedule, and even a bomb in the mix (solo was a box office disaster).

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the paring down was ultimately the correct decision, and the diversification of the brand to TV is getting results. call me crazy but I think star wars will be just fine after a 190~195 million opening weekend and doesn't call for the head of kathleen kennedy, which is where this branch of the convo got started.

 

[Mekanos]

I liked TLJ but a lot of the defenses of the downward trajectory of the SW box office is reminding me of the BVS defenses.

A movie can be successful and underperform at the same time (not speaking about TLJ/TROS, just in general).

 

[Razgriz-Specter]

Lucas was driving the brand into the gutter, AOTC would have become the norm for the IP if he had stayed on, ROTS was bailed out of that by having the whole "its Darth Vader! You have to see it!" hook.

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You can't say "brand",
movies maybe but merchandise was at its peak(in both popularity and quality), games were actually releasing multiple per year, Clone Wars was later airing.

Lucas was in no way driving the brand into the ground.

 

[Manmademan]

Assuming this does around 1.0-1.1 billion, the final installment of a trilogy doing half of the first one is not the sign of a healthy brand. Yes, Star Wars will always make money, but Disney has taken it from the mega blockbuster series and just turned it into another blockbuster series. No more remarkable than Fast And Furious or Jurassic Park. I doubt we'll ever see a Star Wars movie reach TLJ's box office for a long, long time.

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Marvel vs. Star Wars will open to a 900m weekend and go on to do 5 billion WW in 2029

 

[msdstc]

the paring down was ultimately the correct decision, and the diversification of the brand to TV is getting results. call me crazy but I think star wars will be just fine after a 190~195 million opening weekend and doesn't call for the head of kathleen kennedy, which is where this branch of the convo got started.

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Look that's totally fine, but 190 milion opening and a significant down step with each release is not what people expected. The first movie absolutely shattered records and TLJ got off to a very strong start as well but ultimately fell well short, and it continues to trend down in what should be the biggest one in the franchise given it's the final one. We'll see what it's final take is, but I wouldn't be shocked given the reviews and the opening weekend if it finishes 3rd. That is absolutely not where I figured star wars to be trending, and I'd bet disney didn't see it panning out this way. Initially there was tons of buzz about the 2 films a year schedule, the solo film, the kenobi film, the rian johnson triology, the boba fett film. They've come out and said, yes we need to pump the brakes. I think they thought this would really grow to the absolute machine that the MCU became, instead it has stepped back quite a bit, in some cases massively so. I never would've guessed Solo would struggle, let alone straight up bomb like it did.

Star wars is still a massive IP and it has a strong fanbase, but I think it's back to the drawing board here for a bit and a fresh launch of sorts is needed, so they got some work to do.

 

[Seeya]

failing to break top 10 all-time records is 'running it into the ground' now.

But your lack of perspective on these sorts of things is well documented so maybe I'm wasting my time with you.

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Oh ok.

But the first Star Wars film under Disney came out in 2015 and the current year is 2019...

Maybe learn to count before you claim that someone who is far more versed in business and storytelling than you has a lack of perspective, yeah? Don't shoot your mouth off if you can't understand concern over perpetually decreasing returns. XD

 

[Mekanos]

https://www.statista.com/statistics...ng-weekends-at-the-north-american-box-office/

I forgot Incredibles 2 is the 10th biggest opening weekend ever. (Man, what a disappointment that film was...)

This has to make less than 182 opening weekend to miss the top ten.

 

[Deleted member 16452]

I sense something, a presence(argument) I've not felt since...

 

[Seeya]

Lucas was driving the brand into the gutter, AOTC would have become the norm for the IP if he had stayed on, ROTS was bailed out of that by having the whole "its Darth Vader! You have to see it!" hook.

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Oh I agree (film wise) but Lucas also sold and hadn't even wanted to direct the PT. Not to mention that ones sins do not absolve the other.

 

[Deleted member 51691]

I mean it's underperforming.

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Underperforming != dead

TROS will still ultimately make a tidy profit

Maybe a decline from TLJ will make Lucasfilm sit up and take notice, though

 

[Seeya]

I sense something, a presence(argument) I've not felt since...

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To be clear I'm not continuing it and I apologize. It's just insane to see people not looking and trends while also criticizing others for lacking perspective. I apologize for my part in getting childish with insults.

 

[Penguin]

Who could guess kid aren't obsessed with characters created thirty years before they were born. These movies really should've focused on its original trio + Driver, who are all great, and I do think captured a lot of imaginations in the immediate aftermath of TFA.

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I get what you're saying, but it's funny when Marvel is dominating the box office and those characters were created 60-70 years ago.

I know it's not exactly the same since didn't originate in films.

 

[Seeya]

https://www.statista.com/statistics...ng-weekends-at-the-north-american-box-office/

I forgot Incredibles 2 is the 10th biggest opening weekend ever. (Man, what a disappointment that film was...)

This has to make less than 182 opening weekend to miss the top ten.

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I don't think that ROS will miss the top 10, but it's worth pointing out how much the frequency of new entries has increased over the last 15 years. ROS missing the top 10 would be something.

 

[El Bombastico]

I feel like I've stepped back in time to 2016, Jesus H...

 

[Mekanos]

I don't think that ROS will miss the top 10, but it's worth pointing out how much the frequency of new entries has increased over the last 15 years. ROS missing the top 10 would be something.

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Opening weekend frenzy has been a real thing in the last 15 years. I remember when movies would be in theaters for a solid six months. Now unless you're Disney you're lucky to be there longer than 5 weeks and 3 months later it's on Blu-Ray. Shit's crazy. It's not just inflation but it's more common to have the rush factor to opening weekend (internet hype, FOMO, spoilers, etc.).

 

[UltraMagnus]

You can't say "brand",
movies maybe but merchandise was at its peak(in both popularity and quality), games were actually releasing multiple per year, Clone Wars was later airing.

Lucas was in no way driving the brand into the ground.

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There was a large drop in merchandise after TPM. AOTC stuff was nowhere near as popular.

 

[Gentlemen]

Look that's totally fine, but 190 milion opening and a significant down step with each release is not what people expected. The first movie absolutely shattered records and TLJ got off to a very strong start as well but ultimately fell well short, and it continues to trend down in what should be the biggest one in the franchise given it's the final one.

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Let's say for the sake of argument that TROS does exactly $190M this weekend.
TLJ legs (which apparently fell of a cliff in the second month according to people very good at business and storytelling and math) put its domestic finish at about $535M, just below The Lion King in the all-time chart, 3rd place in Disney's record-shattering $10B year, and only 12th all-time domestic.
I think it's nice to want the conclusion to this trilogy in this franchise to tick back upwards like ep3 and ep6 did, and the fact that it didn't is surely a mild disappointment for some people. But I maintain that Kathleen Kennedy is keeping her job. All I'm really responding to are the people insisting, without a glimmer of evidence that they understand the jobs involved, someone like Kevin Feige would have made more money out of Star Wars, all of which comes from strictly 4-chan level misogynist erasure. Star Wars 9 is making less money than Star Wars 7 did. It will probably make less money than Star Wars 8 did. I'm not blind to this, but I also see right past the console-warrior mentality being brought into this thread as cover for the silly nonsense over Kathleen Kennedy's alleged failures. Not to say you specifically are engaging in it, just clarifying my position since some woodwork dudes are constructing a narrative of someone desperate to construct a defense over clearly diminishing numbers.

 

[DeltaRed]

Lucas was driving the brand into the gutter, AOTC would have become the norm for the IP if he had stayed on, ROTS was bailed out of that by having the whole "its Darth Vader! You have to see it!" hook.

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AOTC is more the outllier than a sign of where it was going. The worst film and competing with Spider-Man. ROTS was well received and did fine financially.

 

[UltraMagnus]

AOTC is more the outllier than a sign of where it was going. The worst film and competing with Spider-Man. ROTS was well received and did fine financially.

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ROTS is more of the outlier is anything IMO. They had the "you gotta see it, Darth Vader!!!! Even if you didn't like the previous two, you have to see this one!" hook that people had been waiting for since the prequels had been announced to sell it.

Lucas wasn't going to be able to play that card over and over again after that and you would've been stuck with films like AOTC and TPM (only without the massive 15 years of hype build up).

 

[Sweeney Swift]

It's what the franchise deserves for caving to the critics of the one classic the series had this millennium

And yes, I'm watching TLJ again tonight. Gotta wash the bad taste out with something great, two viewings yesterday wasn't enough to achieve that, maybe two more will be

 

[Deleted member 4976]

MCU features a set of movies based on source material it has to adapt but Star Wars feels like the series constrained by source material that doesn't exist.

The difference in creativity is astounding. Thank god Kevin Feige didn't cave to alt-right shitheads after Captain Marvel.

 

[DeltaRed]

ROTS is more of the outlier is anything IMO. They had the "you gotta see it, Darth Vader!!!! Even if you didn't like the previous two, you have to see this one!" hook that people had been waiting for since the prequels had been announced to sell it.

Lucas wasn't going to be able to play that card over and over again after that and you would've been stuck with films like AOTC and TPM (only without the massive 15 years of hype build up).

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It depends if we're talking film quality or box office. Sticking Vader in the trailers might have helped its gross but ROTS did much better critically and was recieved better by fans, that can't simply be because Vader shows up 5 minutes from the end.

 

[Lifejumper]

It's what the franchise deserves for caving to the critics of the one classic the series had this millennium

And yes, I'm watching TLJ again tonight. Gotta wash the bad taste out with something great, two viewings yesterday wasn't enough to achieve that, maybe two more will be

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Whos idea was it at LF to divert away from a critically acclaimed and hugely profitable movie?

Damn son.

 

[El Bombastico]

It depends if we're talking film quality or box office. Sticking Vader in the trailers might have helped its gross but ROTS did much better critically and was recieved better by fans, that can't simply be because Vader shows up 5 minutes from the end.

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I think you underestimate how many professional critics also grew up with Star Wars. It always felt like the entire PT and especially RotS was treated with kid gloves by critics.

 

[Sweeney Swift]

PS I find it weird people here seem to think it's odd to see a movie you love a lot of times. I know people who've heard their favorite artist for 400 hours this year on Spotify, why's music different from film? Support what you love

MCU features a set of movies based on source material it has to adapt but Star Wars feels like the series constrained by source material that doesn't exist.

The difference in creativity is astounding. Thank god Kevin Feige didn't cave to alt-right shitheads after Captain Marvel.

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It feels weird thinking the MCU is braver than something else in entertainment, but yeah, it's going to be pretty hard to out-do Star Wars in the cowardice department going forward

 

[Deleted member 16452]

It's what the franchise deserves for caving to the critics of the one classic the series had this millennium

And yes, I'm watching TLJ again tonight. Gotta wash the bad taste out with something great, two viewings yesterday wasn't enough to achieve that, maybe two more will be

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Can you imagine if RJ had written and directed this one too.

 

[Mekanos]

It feels weird thinking the MCU is braver than something else in entertainment, but yeah, it's going to be pretty hard to out-do Star Wars in the cowardice department going forward

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I mean the fact that a movie like Endgame exists, is semi-coherent, and was beloved by both audiences and critics is a milestone accomplishment for sure. Before the MCU the idea of a movie addressing a 22 film saga meaningfully was unthinkable.

 

[DeltaRed]

I think you underestimate how many professional critics also grew up with Star Wars. It always felt like the entire PT and especially RotS was treated with kid gloves by critics.

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Your agenda is showing. Presented with something you dont agree with so insult people's intelligence or just insist they're wrong.

 

[Deleted member 4976]

Can you imagine if RJ had written and directed this one too.

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Adam Driver had a phenomenal performance in Marriage Story this year. I would have loved to see him flex some acting chops as the primary villain in episode 9.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Bombshell is the big surprise for me. I thought it had a real chance to break out.

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Bombshell is only playing in 1100 locations compared to the 4400 for Skywalker. When it goes wider should get better grosses.

 

[UltraMagnus]

It depends if we're talking film quality or box office. Sticking Vader in the trailers might have helped its gross but ROTS did much better critically and was recieved better by fans, that can't simply be because Vader shows up 5 minutes from the end.

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The story of Vader is basically all in that film though, Lucas would not have had that card to play in other films and likely they would've been more in line with AOTC. Maybe a bit better quality wise, but without any kind of big hook, the writing/acting/characters and all that likely would've continued to stay very mediocre and people would've started to zone out.

 

[msdstc]

Let's say for the sake of argument that TROS does exactly $190M this weekend.
TLJ legs (which apparently fell of a cliff in the second month according to people very good at business and storytelling and math) put its domestic finish at about $535M, just below The Lion King in the all-time chart, 3rd place in Disney's record-shattering $10B year, and only 12th all-time domestic.
I think it's nice to want the conclusion to this trilogy in this franchise to tick back upwards like ep3 and ep6 did, and the fact that it didn't is surely a mild disappointment for some people. But I maintain that Kathleen Kennedy is keeping her job. All I'm really responding to are the people insisting, without a glimmer of evidence that they understand the jobs involved, someone like Kevin Feige would have made more money out of Star Wars, all of which comes from strictly 4-chan level misogynist erasure. Star Wars 9 is making less money than Star Wars 7 did. It will probably make less money than Star Wars 8 did. I'm not blind to this, but I also see right past the console-warrior mentality being brought into this thread as cover for the silly nonsense over Kathleen Kennedy's alleged failures. Not to say you specifically are engaging in it, just clarifying my position since some woodwork dudes are constructing a narrative of someone desperate to construct a defense over clearly diminishing numbers.

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You're making these leaps and lumping me in with other arguments. This is so frustrating with basically all internet conversations these days. Anybody talks about Star wars and the downward trend in the box office? They hate kathleen kennedy and women! I haven't said a damn thing about Kennedy! I don't believe she's the reason for the burn out! I have a few theories of my own but none of them are related to that. All I did was point out that Disney has been pretty open with the fact that they need to get back to the drawing board, and the way plans have shifted over the years is an actual thing that happened and is happening. The fact that TFA went from the absolute record setter, to settling back down into a top 15 type movie is absolutely not where I saw star wars going, and I can damn near guarantee this is not what Disney envisioned. I would wager they imagined it like the MCU where every release basically resets the bar whether it's black panther annihilating the box office, or end game taking the crown. As pointed out above, if you look at the trends, movies have been getting to the top 15-20 at a much higher clip as of late. The fact that Fast and the Furious is going toe to toe or better with star wars is insane to me. The fact that solo tanked and hobbs and shaw did relatively well is shocking to me. Star Wars was THE record breaker, and now it's just another upper tier franchise. That's my whole point, stop lumping me in with the misogynistic trolls. I don't see how it's Kennedy's fault and I never even remotely implied that I did.