• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
Status
Not open for further replies.

hodayathink

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,055

You want a source, look at berzeli 's post right above mine. Here it is if you missed it:

Okay, so gonna do this once for this thread;

Happy Death Day 2 U is not guaranteed to make money theatrically with that take.

It had a production budget of $9M
But it also must recoup a P&A budget that is at least $30M (there are interviews with Jason Blum where he points to this being the minimum for a wide release type film, and HDD2U was super saturation wide so its at minimum this)

So it needs to recoup $39+M, and it hasn't done so.

Now there is also a whole bunch of ancillary revenue streams (disc, stream, TV-rights) that will help it. But it hasn't made its money back theatrically yet, and may not do so (since it was significantly down in the original's biggest international market as well).
 

Deleted member 17388

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
12,994
Alita was great, just saw it :(
I hope it gets some of Cameron's legs, or at least Disney give it a chance later
(Especially if they find some spots in their Live Action adaptations slate; if the likes of Aladdin and Dumbo don't set the charts on fire)
 

OrangeAtlas

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,110
Everyone that's loving Alita right now.

Begging and pleading for it to do well while the world looks down on you.

Checking the numbers every week praying for a miracle.

Knowing that while your heart believes you will live to see it continue, your head knows better.

Hang on to that feeling.

Understand it.

Just like us.

giphy.gif
 

Rhaknar

Member
Oct 26, 2017
42,623
Captain Marvel is almost out right (isnt it coming out on international women's day, which is March 8th I believe?), how is that tracking anyway?
 

denx

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,322
I really want to see Wandering Earth. Hope international distribution of chinese/foreign blockbusters becomes more of a thing in the future.
 

Midramble

Force of Habit
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
10,463
San Francisco
I am the worst predictor of these things but I think word of mouth is going to help Alita. I didn't like the trailers, but decided to give it a shot with the wife and it was a loooot better than I was expecting. It also seems like the type of movie that will do well international.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Wandering Earth is beasting. Perhaps Amazon will put some pace behind its Three-Body Problem adaptation now.

Those numbers = exactly why studios have been chasing China and those who downplay China for only having a 25% take and weak after market are silly. It's not like the take won't improve or that studios hasn't been budgeting their movies for the after market before China started being a thing and is poised to be the worlds largest market in a decade or so. Almost 20% of the worlds population in a deeply integrated are with next to no upfront costs for distribution as compared to other markets with better % takes? 25% isn't as poor as it seems when taking all the factors in.
 
Last edited:

Terror-Billy

Chicken Chaser
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,460
I can't believe Alita's budget is close to 200. It doesn't look a day over 100 and I'm being generous.
 

Icemonk191

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,814
Everyone that's loving Alita right now.

Begging and pleading for it to do well while the world looks down on you.

Checking the numbers every week praying for a miracle.

Knowing that while your heart believes you will live to see it continue, your head knows better.

Hang on to that feeling.

Understand it.

Just like us.

giphy.gif

I'm still so mad that we'll never get a sequel to Power Rangers >:(
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
I hope that Avatar 2 and 3 makes tons of money so that Alita 2 may live. The movie was alright but I was a sucker for the action scenes.
 

-JD-

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
3,472
Well at least Alita wasn't a Mortal Engines level of bomb. Hope still lives!
 

shintoki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,131
Saw Wandering Earth and thought it was good shit. Happy to see it kill.

Alita doing well is nice too, it's not going to be the year's biggest bomb for sure, but still isn't out of the clear
 
Nov 1, 2017
3,201
What the hell happened with Happy Death Day 2U? It'll be fine since it only cost $9 million, but it's weird that it missed its projections so badly. First one was well-received and did well at the box office, it seemed like there was hype for a sequel, and then...single digit FSS. Don't get it.
 
Oct 28, 2017
13,691
I didn't think Alita looked like a 200 million dollar movie either. How much did Avatar cost? Because that was far grander in scope with a lot more epic action sequences.
 
Nov 13, 2017
9,537
I hope we get Alita 2. They shouldn't take any chances though - end it at the sequel.

Death Day was great but this sequel has barely any marketing.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,300
What the hell happened with Happy Death Day 2U? It'll be fine since it only cost $9 million, but it's weird that it missed its projections so badly. First one was well-received and did well at the box office, it seemed like there was hype for a sequel, and then...single digit FSS. Don't get it.

Maybe not releasing in October (aka horror month) like the original?
 

RoboPlato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,811
Really bummed about 2U not doing well. It was just as fun as the first and I really enjoy this series.
 

dennett316

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,982
Blackpool, UK
Happy Death Day 2U deserves better, a great sequel. Alita....eh. It left me cold in many ways. Uncanny valley abounds, that and the dialogue really never let me click with the film at all. The action looked cool, but I felt next to nothing when watching it, I just couldn't get invested in it. Then the ending/bait, and the tiny bit of goodwill I had went out the window. It was unsatisfying as an ending, so the just under 2 hours I spent watching it felt kind of pointless. It felt every second of it's length as well, maybe longer. Infinity War, Aquaman...those flew by. Alita dragged. A big disappointment. Felt like Rodriguez got caught up in the technical aspects and learning from James Cameron, kind of forgot to engage me with great characters. Sex Machine made more of an impact in his limited time in From Dusk Till Dawn than Alita did in 2 hours.
 

Scullibundo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,692
I think they're saying they hope the Avatar sequels make a ton of money so that Cameron could push for an Alita sequel even if the first one isn't a success.
And I'm saying that isn't logical reasoning. Cameron was already coming off back to back highest grossing films of all time when producing Alita. No studio gives a fuck what he's done as a director when it comes to him offering to produce a sequel to a bomb (if it does). It doesn't work that way.

And Cameron wouldn't self-fund (via Lightstorm) a film he wouldn't be directing himself either.

If Alita bombs, don't expect a sequel.
 

Korigama

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,523
I was quite wrong about Happy Death Day 2 U trouncing Alita, yet still right about the latter not making anywhere near enough to be profitable, which did better than Ghost in the Shell's opening weekend ($19M and debuting at #3), but still worse than Blade Runner 2049 ($31.5M while also opening at #1).
The path forward is still treacherous for Alita, but beating opening weekend estimates is a good start. If Alita reaches $400 million, James Cameron could probably use his influence to get a sequel after he's done with Avatar 2 and 3 despite Alita never breaking even since the studios want Cameron to be happy so he keeps making stuff like Avatar.
I really hope the legs for Alita are good. That film deserves success and a sequel. If it only gets close to the break even I hope Cameron can use his influence get a sequel made.
Alita was great, just saw it :(
I hope it gets some of Cameron's legs, or at least Disney give it a chance later
(Especially if they find some spots in their Live Action adaptations slate; if the likes of Aladdin and Dumbo don't set the charts on fire)
Would Disney really care anywhere near as much given how much they would already have, even if it's him?
And I'm saying that isn't logical reasoning. Cameron was already coming off back to back highest grossing films of all time when producing Alita. No studio gives a fuck what he's done as a director when it comes to him offering to produce a sequel to a bomb (if it does). It doesn't work that way.

And Cameron wouldn't self-fund (via Lightstorm) a film he wouldn't be directing himself either.

If Alita bombs, don't expect a sequel.
This makes more sense to me.
 

stupei

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,801
Maybe not releasing in October (aka horror month) like the original?

The release date feels intended to set up realistic expectations, because it's even less of a horror movie than the original, but the marketing didn't match that at all. Presents the movie as a poorly timed horror film instead of the sci-fi comedy it is. I get they apparently wanted to surprise people but that only works if they see it.
 

mjc

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,880
If they wanna make a third Death Day, they will. A 9mil plus marketing budget ain't a huge hill.
 

Zubz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,565
no
Box Office Era. I know I'm not a regular. I know you don't owe me anything. That said, Alita was a good movie that was clearly written as Part I of a larger series, & it shows. It's a visual spectacle, the story's fun, & heck, it's got me looking into starting Gunnm. Alita's doing better than expected, but if you can find it in your collective hearts, please go out & see it. Because I want that sequel.

That said, I don't ever want to see a risky movie end on that much of a sequel hook again.
 
Last edited:

PanzerKraken

Member
Nov 1, 2017
15,015
What the hell happened with Happy Death Day 2U? It'll be fine since it only cost $9 million, but it's weird that it missed its projections so badly. First one was well-received and did well at the box office, it seemed like there was hype for a sequel, and then...single digit FSS. Don't get it.

Releasing it on Valentine's was apparently not a good idea.

Really horror has a lot of teen and younger viewers who go to them. Many of these kids were going to be having to take their GF's out for valentines and many were not gonna want to be taken to a "horror film". And then going up against 2 other big openers for the holiday.

I don't think they marketed it aggressively enough too, I saw only one trailer for it and no tv ads on any channels I watch. Feels like they did minimum effort on promotion thinking it would do great just cause the first was so popular
 

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,839
Alita is going to end up doing alright. Not a huge success but it'll eek out a small profit I suspect or at least break even.

Spider-man keeps chugging along to my joy. <3
 

mreddie

Member
Oct 26, 2017
44,155
Man, this week is a hard one where I wanted both movies to succeed and yet both will likely barely break or not break even at all.

This February has honestly been disastrous and if Dragon 3 OW is low, man, this could break the streak set by Lego 1 where February becomes a prime month.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.