• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

Sabre

Member
Jul 2, 2018
424
The exclusives discussion seems to have discussion seems to have kickstarted again after the quarterly report. There seems to be a lot of opinions in the line of "now that they've had a taste of that PS5/Switch user revenue, there's no other paths besides going all the way". This comes from a largely misguided perspective of their current situation. The fact is, the vast majority of their revenue is already coming from multiplatform sources, including CoD, Minecraft, King and all the Blizzard franchises, plus all the live service stuff they intended to make multiplatform anyway. Then you have Game Pass revenue and Xbox store cut on third party games. The fact is, the potential PS5/Switch revenue from games like HB2, Indy even Halo and Gears is a sliver compared to what they are already making from games like CoD. I think only multiplatform FH would really make an impact in their software revenues.

If you look at it this way, the question becomes, will they forgo part of that market potential on PS5/Switch, which is tiny in the grand scheme of things, in order to maintain the viability of Xbox hardware and ensure future revenue of Game Pass and Xbox store cut. And to me that seems a pretty clear business case. But as others have said, they are clearly experimenting on the degree of exclusivity they want to keep.
 

NovaChrysalia

Member
Dec 14, 2023
179
Hopefully we'll have some news about Starfield today. Monday will be the 8th week since the last update (and 6-week cycles were initially planned).

If we still have nothing, then we can expect (maybe) an announcement next Friday, so 3 weeks late...
 

Mr Evil 37

Member
Mar 7, 2022
10,174
The key thing to remember though is that ATM, they don't actually have a policy on this. it's a trial/experiment.

They can't say if it's going to be 1,2 or 3 year timed exclusivity, permanent exclusivity for any/all/some games.

They simply have not yet decided.

They are a data driven company and won't make a determination until they have a data set to draw from.

These 4 games, plus some other ones over the next 12 months or so, will represent that dataset.

The uncertainty that it causes is basically the price of doing business, for them. The price of having the dataset to draw upon.

They will even have a formula somewhere for allocating/attributing a proportion of any negative impact to the uncertainty itself, as opposed to the policy.

e.g."if sales drop 15% over 2 years, we'll operate under a working assumption that 25% of that 15% is mainly from the uncertainty that this experiment itself caused. "
Exactly this.

Hopefully we'll have some news about Starfield today. Monday will be the 8th week since the last update (and 6-week cycles were initially planned).

If we still have nothing, then we can expect (maybe) an announcement next Friday, so 3 weeks late...
Fallout mania probably derailed them a little bit (getting 4 out, making sure 76 servers were okay etc).
 

Idas

Antitrusting By Keyboard
Member
Mar 20, 2022
2,039
I can't really speak much on it without outing my source (a fellow friend in the industry) but one of those family friendly IP you mentioned did have a show pitched last year that was rejected.

It's also not the Crash show that leaked a while back.

Very interesting, thanks!

If it's not the leaked Crash show and there already was a Spyro show (the one from Netflix), from my list of family friendly IP only Banjo remains :p

If MS was pitching a Banjo show (rejected) + developing a new game (still coming as far as we know), they are quite serious about resurrecting the IP.

I guess that Phil Spencer saying "Banjo-Kazooie fans, I hear you" really meant something last year.
 

Gay Bowser

Member
Oct 30, 2017
17,735
I certainly think they planned for some 2018/2019 purchases to be shipping more and sooner than they did. In 2018, games were still coming out on 3 or 3.5 year dev cycles in many cases. A few games were taking longer but it wasn't yet as widespread as now. Gears 5 was set to launch in 2019 after 3 years, 3rd party studios like Eidos, a myriad Ubisoft teams and the CoD factories were cranking out games reliably on those timetables, and some titles were even coming out on 2 year cycles. Netherrealm alternated series every 2 years. Forza Motorsports + Horizon were both like clockwork every 2 years.

Pillars 1 and 2 took both took 3 years and The Outer Worlds also took around 3 years (preproduction began in 2016). Imo there was good reason in 2018 to think their next product, starting life in 2018 under Microsoft, might ship in 2021 or early 2022.

Hellblade shipped after 3 years in 2017. The idea of them shipping a new game in 2020 or 2021 wouldn't have seemed outlandish. We Happy Few was set to release a month or two after the ink dried, so they certainly might be shipping something 3 or 4 years later, on paper.

Inxile and Double Fine I think they expected more or less to only get Wasteland and Psychonauts 2 in their first few years, but the others, not so much.

As late as 2020 with zenimax we can see how different the plans were at these companies versus what actually arrived in the end. They thought Deathloop would be 2020 and Ghostwire would be 2021 with their next products only 3 years later, and those docs were like q2 2020. So rewind 2 years earlier, covid being years away? I think they expected 2021 and 2022 to be pretty stacked with exclusives, especially once they started talking to Square Enix, Sega, WB and ZeniMax in 2019 and early 2020.
I think it's definitely true that some of the games have taken longer than they anticipated. We know that Starfield was delayed, of course, and there was that whole "covid" thing that they didn't anticipate when they went on their acquisition spree in 2018 and 2019. Stuff was delayed and I'm not saying that stuff wasn't.

But I still think the acquisition spree was always going to be about rebuilding in this generation rather than having it have a huge start with a bunch of exclusives. Some of the studios were still finishing up their prior non-exclusive projects, after all. When they bought Compulsion and inXile and had them start work on big new IP that were at a larger scale than their previous efforts, I don't think they were like, "yes, and Clockwork Revolution will come out in 2021." It was always going to be a longer-term play than that.
 

Mr Evil 37

Member
Mar 7, 2022
10,174
I think it's definitely true that some of the games have taken longer than they anticipated. We know that Starfield was delayed, of course, and there was that whole "covid" thing that they didn't anticipate when they went on their acquisition spree in 2018 and 2019. Stuff was delayed and I'm not saying that stuff wasn't.

But I still think the acquisition spree was always going to be about rebuilding in this generation rather than having it have a huge start with a bunch of exclusives. Some of the studios were still finishing up their prior non-exclusive projects, after all. When they bought Compulsion and inXile and had them start work on big new IP that were at a larger scale than their previous efforts, I don't think they were like, "yes, and Clockwork Revolution will come out in 2021." It was always going to be a longer-term play than that.
In some ways, it's similar to what Sony experienced last gen. The first few years of PS4 were quite sparse (with a couple of highlights, which Xbox has also had this gen) but it wasn't until 2016-2017 or so when things really kicked off. We're at that point in the generation now and we're starting to get the ball rolling (ironically, Sony carried that momentum into the early years of the PS5 and now they are starting to fall off a bit lol).

Plenty of generation to go.
 
Last edited:

biglo25

Member
Apr 28, 2020
2,505
In some ways, it's similar to what Sony experienced last gen. The first few years of PS4 were quite sparse (with a couple of highlights, which Xbox has also had this gen) but it wasn't until 2016-2017 or so when things really kicked off. We're at that point in the generation now and we're starting to get the ball rolling (ironically, Sony carried that momentum into the early years of the PS5 and now they are starting to fall off a bit lol).

Plenty of generation to go.
yeah i'm always remind of PS4 early years with how this gen has been for xbox and i'm of the belief once they have some of their ducks squared away it will be smooth sailing even with lagging console sales because Content and Services has been growing which people seem to miss is that MS as of 2014 has been a service and subscription company
 

Shirkelton

Member
Aug 20, 2020
6,027
They're going to make it up in the back-half of this generation despite never having done so and the numbers trending in the opposite direction is such a stoic take. Almost have to respect the guts. Same people saying the games going multiplatform currently never would, by the way.

Microsoft bought the revenue from ABK, but they also bought the costs, which is - bizarrely - never talked about here.
 

reksveks

Member
May 17, 2022
3,399
They're going to make it up in the back-half of this generation despite never having done so and the numbers trending in the opposite direction is such a stoic take. Almost have to respect the guts. Same people saying the games going multiplatform currently never would, by the way.

I have no clue if the back half is going to pickup, I think the decline will slow.

Microsoft bought the revenue from ABK, but they also bought the costs, which is - bizarrely - never talked about here.

We could talk about the costs but when ABK was a very profitable business, not sure it's particularly interesting for me at least.
 

criteriondog

I like the chili style
Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,213

Mr Evil 37

Member
Mar 7, 2022
10,174
It's entirely possible the showcase will announce a first party release for later in June, something like Double Fine or AoM Retold or something like that. Perhaps unlikely, but not impossible. Not that something like that would significantly boost revenue but coupled with Hellblade, Fallout fervor and showcase hype, every little helps.
 

Governergrimm

Member
Jun 25, 2019
6,600
They're going to make it up in the back-half of this generation despite never having done so and the numbers trending in the opposite direction is such a stoic take. Almost have to respect the guts. Same people saying the games going multiplatform currently never would, by the way.

Microsoft bought the revenue from ABK, but they also bought the costs, which is - bizarrely - never talked about here.
I was writing a tirade about declining sales and Satya saying he doesn't like exclusives, etc. I realize I've said it all before. Since there isn't an up vote option just know I agree, whatever that is worth.
 

Super

Studied the Buster Sword
Member
Jan 29, 2022
6,721
They're going to make it up in the back-half of this generation despite never having done so and the numbers trending in the opposite direction is such a stoic take. Almost have to respect the guts. Same people saying the games going multiplatform currently never would, by the way.

Microsoft bought the revenue from ABK, but they also bought the costs, which is - bizarrely - never talked about here.

Late Xbox 360 gen was Kinect in full swing and late Xbox One gen was Gears 5.
 

Mr Evil 37

Member
Mar 7, 2022
10,174
Not indication that they are. They also argued in the FTC case, that single exclusives don't really have a long term impact.

A fair question is did/do they believe that really? If it doesnt, what do they think will have an impact?
Phil said on the Xcast that Starfield could be an 11/10 and it won't get people to sell their PS5s. I think they do understand that it's not about just one game. It's about lots of games releasing consistently over a long period of time.
 

Gavalanche

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 21, 2021
17,708
Not indication that they are. They also argued in the FTC case, that single exclusives don't really have a long term impact.

A fair question is did/do they believe that really? If it doesnt, what do they think will have an impact?

I think they think nothing will, and that is why they are expanding. They said it themselves, they lost the console war. They are just expanding to a different front now, and bringing their games to players, rather than expecting players to come to them.
 

reksveks

Member
May 17, 2022
3,399
I think they think nothing will, and that is why they are expanding. They said it themselves, they lost the console war. They are just expanding to a different front now, and bringing their games to players, rather than expecting players to come to them.
I agree that it probably isn't bluster/bs from them.

Still curious if what additional 'value' they can put in front of users in order to buy a console if they are going to share exclusives with the other platforms. Maybe it is just GP and maybe that's enough for them.

Many more years to discuss this so going to concentrate on the now and Manor Lords coming out today.
 

Governergrimm

Member
Jun 25, 2019
6,600
Phil said on the Xcast that Starfield could be an 11/10 and it won't get people to sell their PS5s. I think they do understand that it's not about just one game. It's about lots of games releasing consistently over a long period of time.
Exactly this. My problem with it is they never gave themselves time to get to that steady cadence after buying all these studios. Maybe its just they are in the "find out" stage of fucking about for the last 10 years.
 

Azuos

Member
Sep 29, 2021
721
You guys talking about this whole multiplatform thing, and I'm here wondering If I should finish Hellblade 2 in a single session or not.

Do we know the time it will release? Alan Wake 2 was 1AM here, it was tough.
 

Voodoopeople

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,875
They're going to make it up in the back-half of this generation despite never having done so and the numbers trending in the opposite direction is such a stoic take. Almost have to respect the guts. Same people saying the games going multiplatform currently never would, by the way.

Microsoft bought the revenue from ABK, but they also bought the costs, which is - bizarrely - never talked about here.

They have nothing to make up. Look at their finances. They are already making bank.

They bought the humongous profit margins that ABK provides, as well as a massive foothold in mobile gaming. THAT is where they see growth. Not console. It's not like they have been secretive about this. They have been saying time and time again that the console market is stagnant and there is little room for them to grow in that market.

Frankly, they increasingly don't care if you ever buy an Xbox again. Certainly not as much as they used to. They'd obviously prefer it, but why make a loss on a box when you can get the same profit/revenue from them via PC, mobile, TV or via Switch 2/PS5. This is not their plan failing. This IS their plan.

You could see the transition a few years ago when they started, at the June Showcase, touting things like the Riot partnership as if it was a AAA console only exclusive being announced 10 years ago. The fact of the matter is, in years to come, the June Showcase is probably going to have in it around 1/3rd of games traditionally thought of as console, 1/3rd PC and a good chunk of mobile games in it too. They aren't going to spend literal billions on their mobile development capacity without putting it front and centre in their marketing. Mobile trailers at their "E3" will definitely become the norm.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
55,363
Yeah, got side tracked and need to go back to it. Thanks for reminding me!
You could always use that AI enhanced search function in the Xbox Store for "puzzle games similar to Botany Manor and Escape Academy" 😏 if that ever leaves preview...

Superliminal
Maquette
QUBE 2
The Entropy Center

may also interest you
 

Clippy

Member
Feb 11, 2022
2,030
How is it bad if Xbox hardware averages sales of 50m per generation (which it seems on track to do with series consoles assuming 2028 is next gen), and most of their biggest games are available and sold on all platforms - which is clearly the strategy?
They're really not on track for 50 million, and will never be again. The majority of their sales this gen will be to people who assumed Xbox will have unique exclusive games. That's not gonna be a thing anymore.
 

YozoraXV

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,999
Just got it installed, but I'm still working my way through Tales of Arise. There is just too many damn games and it's awesome :)

Yep playing Tales of Arise too, thought I was getting to the end and could start Jedi Survivor but then Tales comes with the second opening. Completely forgot how long these games are.