I still don't see how CoD on game pass will obliterate sales. At most it would be impacted by PC Game Pass but how many people on PC play regular COD vs Warzone. They have yet to raise PCGP pricing but also want to grow that the most, so...
You explained many times why CoD on Game Pass makes sense and I completely agree.
I don't think it will damage Steam sales by much and it should boost Game Pass subscriptions by a lot. Steam is the main PC platform, people just don't want to play games off Steam and people HATE other launchers/platforms. There many good examples of games doing amazing on both Steam and Game Pass.
I think console is where it will be very interesting. They should be able to see how many current Ultimate subscribers bought Modern Warfare 3 for example. Call of Duty would move some Game Pass Console subscribers up to Game Pass Ultimate, which actually ends up being $4 more for Microsoft, and they would most likely try multiplayer now and potentially spend on MTX, which I think is Microsoft's biggest hope when it comes to dropping CoD on Game Pass.
Most interesting would be people subscribing to GP Core and upgrading to GP Ultimate. Those people would spend more than $70 now, but how many games are those people buying per year? Would they start spending less on games when they subscribe to Ultimate? Will those people buy CoD battle pass and spend on MTX? Maybe that upgrade encourages them to try more games, which is also really good.
We have to take in mind that people can subscribe to Ultimate for one month, play bunch of games then go back to Core or Console tier. That's something Microsoft hopes doesn't happen.
Also, let's be real, good number of subscribers get the subscription for much cheaper. I also think most of those people wouldn't even subscribe if not for those methods. We mostly just take in mind people who pay global price like $70 for CoD and $16.99 for GP Ultimate, but prices are very different in many countries, though Activision's regional pricing sucks ass.
There is risk for sure. Microsoft keeps fucking up and Xbox sales are not good, who knows how many people would even buy the next console, if there is one or whatever it is. Because of that, Call of Duty on Game Pass is something they have to do imo, if they give up on Game Pass now people would have zero reason to buy an Xbox. People would still need to buy CoD on PlayStation and a lot of people will keep buying it on PC. I think it's worth it.
They also weren't careful when promising everything on Game Pass. Imagine backing out now, that would be yet another big fuck up and would sink the ship even more, and I say 'even more' because it's already below surface water.