I think this fact is the reason TGA is even better. You just reach more potentially new consumers than which a anniversary show.
Yes, people would spread the word. But that's only half the story imo. Let's compare the viewership numbers shall we.
| Hellblade 2 Trailer | ~11 million views |
| Xbox & Bethesda E3 | > 3,7 million |
| Xbox Show Extended | < 1 million |
| The Game Awards | 83 million |
Keep in mind I added a view YT channels numbers to be more accurate. I didn't check twitch though. But the point is that TGA is just bigger by a very wide margin.
Trailers are good and well. But TGA just hits different as I've pointed out before. I think one of the reasons Hellblade 2 has so many views is that it was shown at TGA and afterwards some consumers wanted to see the trailer in 4K.
Obviously that's just guess work, but I don't think a anniversary event will have more than 1 million views, because it's not a E3 showcase and "low key" (for the lack of a much better word) events like Xbox Showcase extended had very limited reach. I'd also argue those watching the anniversary event will be mostly already GP subscribers or at least 99% of them Xbox fans.
As you rightfully said consumers will spread the word. But what if 80 million instead of 1 million spread the word? Of course that's unrealistic, because not everyone of those 80 million viewers will care about the game or Xbox. But there is a higher chance more people spread the word and the best thing is spreading the word will become less important. After all 80 million already saw the trailer and know about the game.
