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Stock Market Era |OT3| Nobody expects the Spanish Inflation!

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SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,038
Caz said:
There's also the possibility that AM5 is another Bulldozer and the company still has a significant amount of debt to pay off which are concerns for AMD's future.
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AMD has been paying off *significant* amounts of debt in the past two or so years. They're fine. The only disruption with AM5 is not that it's Bulldozer, but moreso because AMD likes to have long-life platforms, which will undoubtedly harm adoption into the new platform.

Having said that, the new AMD chips are a known factor. We've known the predicted performance of the new AM5 chips for a while now.

The number one factor right now is their *server* platform, in particular with how AMD may go with two different variants of their server chips. All signs point to a stripped-down many-core variant in existence.

reKon said:
I've been itching at picking up this. I actually started buying some today after it dropped below $110. Sort of a make up for missing out on Nvidia, which I could have picked up at $213... Ouch.

Still don't know whether I want to jump in and pick up TSMC as well because it's at a fantastic discount right now. Just have China on the back of my mind
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If you have to choose between the two, pick nVidia. The stock generally performs better, but keep in mind that current speculation is that they'll be behind in performance with Lovelace. Not that it actually matters -- nVidia has good mindshare and development chains within the server space that it won't impact them that much.

That being said, nVidia *is* an expensive stock so AMD may be a good choice as a long term hold. With *that* being said, AMD typically drops on earnings and it's right around the corner...
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,952
SRG01 said:
AMD has been paying off *significant* amounts of debt in the past two or so years. They're fine. The only disruption with AM5 is not that it's Bulldozer, but moreso because AMD likes to have long-life platforms, which will undoubtedly harm adoption into the new platform.

Having said that, the new AMD chips are a known factor. We've known the predicted performance of the new AM5 chips for a while now.

The number one factor right now is their *server* platform, in particular with how AMD may go with two different variants of their server chips. All signs point to a stripped-down many-core variant in existence.



If you have to choose between the two, pick nVidia. The stock generally performs better, but keep in mind that current speculation is that they'll be behind in performance with Lovelace. Not that it actually matters -- nVidia has good mindshare and development chains within the server space that it won't impact them that much.

That being said, nVidia *is* an expensive stock so AMD may be a good choice as a long term hold. With *that* being said, AMD typically drops on earnings and it's right around the corner...
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Nvidia is too expensive right now (IMO). I don't typically pick individually stocks, but I've made an exception for stocks I think have been heavily discounted where they rarely have been historically (i.e. several FAANG).

AMD isn't as discounted as I would like, but I still decided to pick some up because of the future upside from demand. The business is doing well, which is something I like to see in this current economic environment (being profitable actually matters again, except if you're GameStop or AMC).

I still need to decide if picking up TSMC is worth the risk...
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Some reclassifications to SP500 which will change sector ETFs:

www.bloomberg.com

The Dominance of Tech Stocks in S&P 500 Is Set to Shrink Next Year

The dominance of tech stocks in the S&P 500 is set to shrink next year after the index’s overseer announced revisions that will reclassify the sectors of some major shares.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Won't get the full list until December. But there are about to be some decent changes inside sector ETFs. One example shown from that article is moving Visa, Mastercard, and Paypal out of tech ETFs and into the XLF.

Someone needs to put out a remember in mid December so we can look at how different all the sector ETFs look next year.
 
ViperVisor

ViperVisor

Member
Oct 29, 2017
860
It's been 1 year and a day and with the recent gains I think I'm gonna cash out my $9,000 equity in LMT NOC RTX.
Probably just put it into VOO.

Plan last year was to get an EV6 down payment but no base model red color and no years of free fast charging like the ioniq 5.
 
Mengy

Mengy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,589
So Elon Musk just bought a 9% stake in Twitter (TWTR), and shares of TWTR are up quite a lot in pre-market this morning.

So if anyone is holding Twitter shares, congrats?
 
lt519

lt519

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,067
He's not wrong, smart to have a hand in the social media market. Look at how influential Twitter has been in the Ukraine/Russia war, it's nuts.

Buying a passive stake is interesting, because it's not like that does a whole lot as of right now.
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
I think this CNN article is spot on:

www.cnn.com

Elon Musk buys 9.2% stake in Twitter, making him the largest shareholder

Elon Musk recently purchased 9.2% of Twitter stock, according to a filing Monday, making him the largest shareholder in the company.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Cheaper for Musk to become the largest shareholder and create change from the inside. Instead of creating his own social media platform.

Now can he get Twitter to figure out how to make money as well. Such and influential platform, yet can't make any money.
 
Eggiem

Eggiem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,842
MrBob said:
I think this CNN article is spot on:

www.cnn.com

Elon Musk buys 9.2% stake in Twitter, making him the largest shareholder

Elon Musk recently purchased 9.2% of Twitter stock, according to a filing Monday, making him the largest shareholder in the company.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Cheaper for Musk to become the largest shareholder and create change from the inside. Instead of creating his own social media platform.

Now can he get Twitter to figure out how to make money as well. Such and influential platform, yet can't make any money.
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Good luck figuring that out without driving away your highly critical user base.

Potential new users (Gen Z) dont even use Twitter that much. And I cant blame them.
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Yeah I don't think it will be easy. It's more important for Twitter to figure out how to make money on their users. Awful monetary platform.

Also hello there higher valuation today:

HighValuation.png


Paypal up 25 bucks since I mentioned to look into it around 95. 💪 Sold half today, free and clear mind for trade on the rest. Profit booked, emotion gone. Will ride the rest to see if it can get near 145-150. Weekly chart hinting this can go higher above 125-127, but nothing is ever guaranteed.
 
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lt519

lt519

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,067
QQQ has so many technical indicators colliding on top of prior resistance/support all at ~$370. This'll be an interesting week.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,255
PLUG went crazy today. I had been holding the bag for a while and I'm finally back in the green on it.

PLTR and SOFI are back to almost even for me after I DCA'd down on them at low points.

ENPH has almost doubled since the lows in January.
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
lt519 said:
QQQ has so many technical indicators colliding on top of prior resistance/support all at ~$370. This'll be an interesting week.
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Yeah it should be tougher here for QQQ soon. I'm looking at megacap tech charts right now (Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook), and they all look decently strong. Even Facebook looks ok too, now pushing up against the 200 week moving average.

Plus the QQQ weekly chart is now above all the moving averages again. Though the week just started, and I want to see the QQQ close the week over the convergence of the 20 and 50 week moving averages.

Big picture though a lot of these megacap names not named facebook have been trading sideways in a bigger range for awhile. For example, Google has been trading in a range for the past 9 months:

GOOGL_2022-04-04_20-16-29.png

The Google weekly chart definitely has a more bullish tilt. But until proven otherwise, still in a range.

Just briefly looking at the range for the other megacap names:

1) Apple been in a range for about 4 months.

2) Microsoft in a range for about 9 months.

3) Amazon been in a trading range for a couple years.

If these actually break out, should fuel a rally and push the QQQ higher.
 
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MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Semiconductor ETF SMH getting smashed on open. Down over 3.5% as of this post, wild. Let us see if the SMH can get a save in the next 24-48 hours. If it falls off a cliff, not normally bullish for the QQQ. QQQ currently is on an inside day though at the moment, even with the drop from open. So have to factor this with the SMH drop. One of them is lying.

Seems to be a flip of yesterday overall, where the growthier names did better. Today the value names are up, and the growthier names are down.
 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,038
MrBob said:
Semiconductor ETF SMH getting smashed on open. Down over 3.5% as of this post, wild. Let us see if the SMH can get a save in the next 24-48 hours. If it falls off a cliff, not normally bullish for the QQQ. QQQ currently is on an inside day though at the moment, even with the drop from open. So have to factor this with the SMH drop. One of them is lying.

Seems to be a flip of yesterday overall, where the growthier names did better. Today the value names are up, and the growthier names are down.
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Yields changed this morning, so tech is getting hammered as usual.

I'm looking forward to the rate increases to bring the curve back under control. It's nuts.
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Yup. Just read this too:

www.cnbc.com

Fed's Brainard sees balance sheet reduction soon and 'at a rapid pace'

Brainard said policy tightening will include a speedy reduction in the balance sheet and a steady pace of interest rate increases.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Fed trying to fix their clown show. Good luck.

Still will be money to be made though. Things are up today, as long as you are in the right items.

SP500 might be able to keep up as long as the megacap names hold. If they don't, probably game over.

Looking at coca cola trying to break out today to another new high. Might start another leg higher. However, the forward PE of Coca Cola is now higher than Google. So if it rips to another leg higher, don't forget to take some profits on the way up. Unless Coca Cola is about to start to have growth faster than Google. Will listen to their next earnings to find out.
 
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MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Are you in the higher valuation names? Those are likely to be moving around up and down with big swings for the forseeable future. I still think those are the stocks at more risk, versus the megacap names. Megacap names have actual profits, fortress balance sheets, and still growing. We will see though, as maybe I'll get rug pulled.

A lot of the megacap daily charts look similar to the QQQ where the 50 day moving average (blue line) is starting to flatten out, and attempting to turn back higher.

QQQ_2022-04-05_11-36-30.png


There are some support levels below the 50 day moving average, but typically better to stay above the 50 day than be below it. Look at how the big breakdown really happened once the QQQ couldn't rally back above the 50 day moving average.
 
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Shadout

Shadout

Shinra Employee
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,834
Still slightly green today thanks to my European stocks being in a very good mood for some reason (or more likely, their markets just closed before things turned really bad...). But ouch. Daytrade volatility is back it seems :/ Never got a chance to miss it.
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Well it looks like the SMH was the tell today. Not a great finish into close. Unless we have a late last 10 minute surge. Still not time to overreact yet though. Just watch the charts and if the trend changes, don't double down. Be on alert if below the 50 day moving again. If you look back to 2014-2016 we were in a trading range for a couple years. Until we break down or break out, could be in a tradeable range. Not selling my Google stock just yet.

At the same time, it doesn't hurt to diversify into names that should hold up ok in high inflation / rate hikes. Such as a major healthcare name. Not exactly a sexy pick for trades, but many names seem to be holding up strong right now. If they break down, get out. If they don't, ride the wave. If you don't want to pick a name, watch the healthcare ETF charts of VHT and XLV.

Plus watch commodities. Don't ignore if we are in a longer term run in these, like we were in the mid 2000s.
 
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Advance.Wars.Sgt.

Advance.Wars.Sgt.

Member
Jun 10, 2018
8,977
Today is the day for the Warner Discovery merger to start trading as WBD correct? If so I'll have a couple of shares and am contemplating on selling them outright or holding on to them a bit to see how they'll perform in the short term. I do believe in their long term viability, I just have other positions on my mind
 
lt519

lt519

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,067
Watching Nvidia today, tapped it's 50 DMA and held there as market continues to go lower.

Edit: that certainly didn't last long, 200 DMA is just under that at 243
 
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Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,255
Getting crushed and I don't have much cash at the moment to put in so I just have to ride it out. On the plus side, my company's profit-sharing distribution should be at the end of this week, and if the market tanks a bit right now I'm fine with it.
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Guess the market is frontrunning the Fed Minutes later today.

lt519 said:
Watching Nvidia today, tapped it's 50 DMA and held there as market continues to go lower.

Edit: that certainly didn't last long, 200 DMA is just under that at 243
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Yeah there is rising 200 day still. However, now that it gapped down on open (Not just nvidia, but a lot of growth/semis/software/high valution), now it's time to try to get to that gap. Those gaps, if left unattended for awhile, can become harder resistance over time. Would be good for nvidia to get back up and fill that gap as soon as possible. Plus the 100 day moving average can start turning lower if Nvidia languishes under it. Especially if it gets undeneath both the 50 day and 200 day moving average. There is still an open gap to be filled around 230, and a 50 week moving average sitting aroudn 230 as well. That would probably be a huge hold area, at least for me. To be above/below 230.

Starting to wonder if investors are starting to lump in Nvidia with AMD for the PC part demand slowdown. If AMD is going to get punished for a PC part demand slowdown, Nvidia should as well. Both companies were able to enjoy record margins by squeezing consumers over inflationary supply chain issues, and if these supply chain issues are rolling off, and demand is rolling off, Nvidia and AMD margins should not be as good as in the past. Just a hypothesis though. I'd rather focus more on the charts than any narrative.
 
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MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,674
Speaking of AMD, let us see if it has juice to hold in the low 100s as it did in the low 70s over and over. Getting close to showtime again on the weekly chart:

AMD_2022-04-06_09-46-59.png


Arguably been bear flagging on top of an important support level around 100, and the long term uptrend (blue line) has now come up to meet that support level.

Flipping back on the weekly moving averages:

AMD_2022-04-06_09-47-23.png


100 week moving average is sitting right underneath 100, around 95. So it could fall underneath 100 and bounce off this instead. Then would want to see a quick bounce back up over 100.

AMD bounced multiple times over the 50 week moving average before falling under. The 100 week hasn't been touched in years. Should be able to get at least one bounce off it. If not, well, normally not a great look. Unless it's a fakeout spike and it rallies back over the 100 week relatively quickly. Either way, if it stays underneath 100 for a long time, this can become heavier resistance over time. Time matters too whether above/below levels.
 
Sibersk Esto

Sibersk Esto

Changed the hierarchy of thread titles
Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,674
May try to add more to my IRA. I'll see what it looks like later in the day.
 
kazinova

kazinova

Member
Oct 27, 2017
949

2pac_71

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,563
market recovering since the minutes were released. Wonder if we close green or if the reaction since its all computer trading is reading the msg wrong until everyone can digest it properly and we go lower.

edit - seems the small recovery was short lived for now.
 
zulux21

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,448
Advance.Wars.Sgt. said:
Today is the day for the Warner Discovery merger to start trading as WBD correct? If so I'll have a couple of shares and am contemplating on selling them outright or holding on to them a bit to see how they'll perform in the short term. I do believe in their long term viability, I just have other positions on my mind
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You had to own T by yesterday to get the WBD shares (it was effectively a dividend payment), but the WBD shares won't exist until the merger actually finalizes which will be sometime this month.

I think there is some way to trade your rights to WBD before you get it, but I didn't fully understand what I was reading in regards to what to do with that so I'm just waiting until everything is finalized (but it's a long term holding for me anyway) it was something about there should be a temp symbol for WBD to allow you to sell your rights or something but like I said, I didn't follow it, and I didn't care enough to figure it out because I want to hold WBD long term :P

edit:

investorplace.com

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) Stock Is Coming. Here's What to Know.

The eligible owners of AT&T's shares will have the right to receive 0.24 shares of WBD stock for each share of T stock that they own.
investorplace.com investorplace.com

the info and seems to be the temp stock https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WBDWV/
 
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OP
OP
Sheepinator

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,187
There are now a few T/DISCA related tickers.

If you sell your T now, that's giving up your T stock and the rights to WBD stock.

You can sell your T stock now and keep the upcoming WBD, using T-WD, which is T minus the spin-off.

You can keep your T stock and sell the WBD now, using WBDWV.

The T dividend will drop to $1.11, which is maybe a bit under 6%.

finance.yahoo.com

Symbol Lookup from Yahoo Finance

Search for ticker symbols for Stocks, Mutual Funds, ETFs, Indices and Futures on Yahoo! Finance.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

finance.yahoo.com

Symbol Lookup from Yahoo Finance

Search for ticker symbols for Stocks, Mutual Funds, ETFs, Indices and Futures on Yahoo! Finance.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

After the closing, all that stuff settles.
 
Shadout

Shadout

Shinra Employee
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,834
Oh, among the massive sea of red in my portfolio, GENI went up right at the end of the day for some reason. My google skills fails to find any news.
 
lt519

lt519

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,067
Shadout said:
Oh, among the massive sea of red in my portfolio, GENI went up right at the end of the day for some reason. My google skills fails to find any news.
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NFL warrants vested and they are now the largest US shareholder. Kinda non-news that people used as a quick pump.

That stock is a dumpster fire.

www.yahoo.com

NFL Now Largest U.S. Shareholder in Genius Sports as Warrants Vest

The National Football League is now the largest American owner of equity in Genius Sports, controlling about 7.7% of the business after a new batch of warrants vested last week. Under a four-year licensing deal that made Genius the sole gatekeeper of NFL data last year, the league immediately...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
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