Does the stock market ever go up? I keep hearing tale of this mythical 7% gains...
I got 22% last year.
Something like this was due. Just wish we'd get to the goddamn bottom already.
Does the stock market ever go up? I keep hearing tale of this mythical 7% gains...
I understand that 2020-2021 was insane, obviously my comment was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. But does feel like those 22-30% gains everyone was getting are maybe a touch... not real? I can't think of the right phrase for it. It feels like there was a price to be paid for a global pandemic and everything that happened from Aug 20 - Aug 21 was kind of fake in a weird way. Obviously if you sold and locked in profits bless, way to win.I got 22% last year.
Something like this was due. Just wish we'd get to the goddamn bottom already.
The word for what you're describing is "bezzle":I understand that 2020-2021 was insane, obviously my comment was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. But does feel like those 22-30% gains everyone was getting are maybe a touch... not real? I can't think of the right phrase for it. It feels like there was a price to be paid for a global pandemic and everything that happened from Aug 20 - Aug 21 was kind of fake in a weird way. Obviously if you sold and locked in profits bless, way to win.
But the bulk of my portfolio is long-term boring index retirement stuff, and it's funny to see this insane bubble and slow popping of that bubble.
The word for what you're describing is "bezzle":
Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
carnegieendowment.org
Michael Pettis on ERA, man you know he's gotten bigger when I'm no longer the only one posting his stuff, lol.
Hmm, that's pretty close to what I'm thinking but not with as much sinister undertone. There's a certain delusion to the euphoria of the lockdown run, but i don't think that people who profited off of it were ne'er-do-wells necessarily.The word for what you're describing is "bezzle":
Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
carnegieendowment.org
I think I posted his stuff a while ago too :D He's great, especially his most recent book.
Hmm, that's pretty close to what I'm thinking but not with as much sinister undertone. There's a certain delusion to the euphoria of the lockdown run, but i don't think that people who profited off of it were ne'er-do-wells necessarily.
What does Pinterest do other than run that website that ruins Google Image search?
Ha I've bought PINS on several occasions and said the exact same thing, it's always gone wrong, single figures and I'll try againBought some PINS, can't possibly go wrong... ^^
When was Google and Amazon stock splits coming? I want to DCA into each, but they are a bit too costly for DCAing for me. They better stay down until the split.
Bought some PINS, can't possibly go wrong... ^^
When was Google and Amazon stock splits coming? I want to DCA into each, but they are a bit too costly for DCAing for me. They better stay down until the split.
We should do something like poll questions on random days.
For instance today if you had $10,000 to spend and you had to spend it all entirely on one stock between the two would you choose AMZN or GOOG?
Afaik it is still mostly a US thing. None of the platforms I would want to touch in Europe supports it at least.What investing platform do you use?
Most of them these days let you buy fractional shares during day time trading hours.
We already know from the last meetings. Pump and dump.Powell speaks in a hour I think?
And the fed minutes come out tmrw noon.
Wonder how the market reacts.
Low volume on green or red days tells me liquidity is drying up, but that just increases volatility.
This market wants to stair step into a bear market. Death by a thousand cuts indeed.
Edit: TSLA down more than GOOG. We might see TSLA below 600 tomorrow.
You mean correction?Think it's bad now? Just wait until the housing market crashes, because it's happening very soon.
Sure. I'm not sure how badly prices are going to fall, but they are starting to go down.
If inflation isn't tamed through interest rate increases, at what point will the Fed stop to reconsider other options?
Michael Burry post another update?Think it's bad now? Just wait until the housing market crashes, because it's happening very soon.
If inflation isn't tamed through interest rate increases, at what point will the Fed stop to reconsider other options?
Another 50% and I'll buy some!Stolen from Reddit:
Tesla Stock Losses Top $575 Billion As 'Investor Patience Wears Thin' With Elon Musk's Twitter ‘Circus Show’
Shares of Tesla plunged to an 11-month low on Tuesday.www.forbes.com
I think we are already starting to see some deflationary pressures happening.
1) Home sales are really starting to drop
2) Companies are beginning to freeze hiring and start layoffs
3) Stock market has come down greatly already
4) Inventory turnover is slowing down for companies
Now we have to see how big of an economic effect this all has. Target and Walmart earnings basically said inflationary pressures have the consumer stepping down in quality and not buying as many high margin items. Now consumers are buying lower margin items, in which walmart and target don't make any money on these items. Plus what baseline level does inflation go down too. If it goes down to 4-5 percent and sticks, that's not a great scenario either.
If anyone has any insight on the housing market, let us know. Because Florida and California are now looking at legislation to help with first time home buyers. In which spending more money doesn't exactly bring down inflation. But the housing market is looking close to completely broken right now between year over year price increases and how much 30 year mortgage rates have gone up. There probably is no good solution here, outside of having it crash again.
Rate hikes will do it; you just have to give them time. After all, the Volcker shock didn't fix inflation overnight, either.If inflation isn't tamed through interest rate increases, at what point will the Fed stop to reconsider other options?
I think we'll start to see signs of inflationary pressures easing when investor sentiment starts to move to 'risk on' mentalities. Too many defensive plays going on right now...
It was very lucky for Musk's brother to sell out right at the top, just before Musk started selling. And when I say lucky, I mean lucky that he's related and obviously got the advance warning.
Yeah it's a good thing to look for. Though be careful if the rotation doesn't happen. If the defensives fade and the rotation doesn't happen, this is a recipe for faster market crash on the SP500 and QQQ. The slow moving crash will accelerate.
I was just looking at the SPY and QQQ daily charts, and neither have touched their 20 day moving average in a long time. SPY barely tagged it 25 trading days ago, and it's been 33 trading days for the QQQ. That's crazy. I'm actually kind of impressed how the QQQ and SPY haven't evolved into a bigger price crash by constantly getting sold down underneath the 20 day moving average. The 20 day is just magnetic enough to have these hold on, but not strong enough to pull them back yet. The last two and half weeks has been very choppy sideways action in a big range, but as long as the SPY or QQQ don't break down from here again, the 20 day is going to come down to meet price and we will see what happens.
It looks like SNAP insiders unloaded a ton of shares too over the past year. Not to mention Satya Nadella selling half his Microsoft shares near Microsoft's top. Fed Chairs finding clarity and selling their individual stocks near the market top, before actively pushing the market lower. The grift was so strong the last couple years
I'm totally on capitulation right now -- I don't really have any faith that there will be any significant movement on the upside anytime soon, especially because the 20ma is the big resistance point right now.
Someone posted something a while back that said 'Just in time turned into Just in case'. Looking quite apropos right now.
Also, there's lots of downhill effects of increased inventory too (read: increased prices).
Isn't more supply than demand a reason to lower prices? Or are inventory costs that high?
There's barely any stock and construction stalled during the pandemic. Those toxic bundled subprime loans of 08 are not a thing anymore.Think it's bad now? Just wait until the housing market crashes, because it's happening very soon.
Houses in my area are still selling quite well, but I agree overall that it's going to cool.What happened in '08 was beyond a crash, the system was fundamentally broken. I'm talking a good old conventional, 30% drop in value, crash. Housing starts are down, sales were down 17% last month yoy, lumber is off 60+% from it's high and heading back to pre-covid levels, interest rates are rising quickly, etc. Just go on zillow and look and see how many houses have had their prices dropped recently and you'll see it for yourself. My business is tied to the real estate market and we're battening down the hatches for a bad second half.