By the way doing some math and looking at MC and NPD Switch numbers Nintendo should have met its Q4 target. Not exceeded it. So I expect Switch to be at 18 millions shipped in the upcoming financial report. Great first 13 months.
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March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeah I don't know exactly how that'll work, but I thought someone said they would be counted in some way.
NPD goes by Revenue right ? So would a digital Gamepass SOT count as 10$ revenue or 60?
Probably because of Gamepass.
The problem with that is that you can't assume that every gamepass sub was only used for SoT. There are other free games there too, right?
So it's kinda problematic unless MS gives them some official estimation.
Yeah it's unsurprising now given the software schedule. It'll pick back up as we go through the months that were supply constrained last year though.
Nintendo should really start caring about Q1, it definitely seems like they've been heavily ignoring it for a long time now.
Nintendo PR: "More Than 906,000 U.S. Units Sold in March"
So between 906 and 907k
Indeed. They still have price drops to use for both base and Pro.
Still a ton of life left ahead for PS4
It's a play anywhere game and has a PC version. So digital is probably going to be higher and 20% is fairly low by today's standards
Thats what i wonder about, how is Gamepass revenue distributed anyway ?
If someone pays for a month, and plays 10h of Halo 1337 and 10h of SOT, will both games get 5$ of revenue reported ?
I took FP titles so the money does not get affected by the cut XB surely takes when it comes to Third party on GP.
Yeah. PS4 Pro and Xbox One X were a great idea to keep sales up. By the way what do you think about Gamepass? It's a complete new and different business model in the gaming market so i think we have to wait few years to judge it.
Thanks for being the new MVP in these topics.
The wrong or right way, tho?
Ps4 is extremely strong.
Ps4 should be the #1 selling console the most months this year by a good margin.
Ps4 will comfortably be the best selling console of H1 2018.
And right now i think Ps4 could even outsell Switch for the full year, depending on the Switch lineup for H2 2018.
I think Game Pass is brilliant and going to be a huge revenue boon for the Xbox Division
Nintendo planned to ship 2.88 millions Switch in Q4.
In the Q3 report they shipped 39% of total amount of Switch shipped in "The Americas" (I presume is US+Canada, Canada is roughly 10% of the US I think)
So for The Americas in Q4 they planned to ship 1.12 millions.
The Q4 total of Switch sold in the US is roughly 860k, adding a +10% for Canada adds up to 946k Switch sold in US+Canada.
1.12 millions is roughly +18% on their sold numbers, that seems a fair number for unsold stock and stock still shipping around the globe.
Are my numbers off?
Yep, almost on par with PS4. PS4 after 13,5 months was at 19.9 million shipped. Plus, Switch is 100 bucks cheaper.
I'm not talking about unsold stock?
I'm just saying if you had asked me last year if Switch would start tracking as selling under PS4 regularly on a monthly basis I wouldn't have anticipated that
There's also likely a small portion for South America, so the sold numbers are probably a bit higher than 950k. I have no idea what the South America/North America ratio usually is but I bet we could estimate it from NPD sales vs their shipment reports.
I was simply trying to extrapulate if Switch's numbers were below "the expected" or no, and it seems like not. I think it's simply PS4 and X1 that are selling a lot and more than expected.
Fortnite is the main driver of hardware right now yep.
And people should expect a healthy April as well
Anyone would be able to compare PS4 Q1 2017 vs Q1 2018 ? I believe it's down but just slightly right ?
Do you think it's because of Fortnite's boom, Nintendo's weak schedule, or both? And have you seen anything on the horizon that could reverse the course any time within the next few weeks or months?
Thanks for all your insight, Benji, as always, you're the best.
Well it also depends on how much there was stock left from last quarter. In Japan we know that Switch was pretty much sold out at the end of december so all of sales this past quarter have been from new shipments but no idea of Americas and Europe. For example PS4 has had stronger april-june quarter shipments pretty much every year despite actual sell trough being higher during jan-march quarter. There has just been some extra stock left from holiday period that has lowered shipments at the start of the year.
I think the earliest we'll get that is at the end of the month and that'll come as PR from Sony
I think we've gotten a lot, apparently it's doing so well that there will be/are stock issues.
I expect an official price drop to $249 in summer with their days of play promo, that's also when I expect them to hit 80million mark and let loose a little.
Hey thanks! So a couple things
1. Switch is still performing GREAT, it being slightly below my personal thoughts on where it would be this time last year, are no big deal in the grand scheme of things. Its still performing plenty well
2. Xbox and PS4 are without a doubt over performing. Xbox One on track still for its best year ever, and PS4 holding very strong to last year despite no price promotions. That is also going to skew the way things looks a bit
3. It just does strike me as a bit less than I thought it would be (in regards to Switch). Its 2nd March for example is lower than PS4's second March. Again, not a huge deal but I wonder how the comp's with PS4 will look moving forward
4. Software being so light during Q1 is the main contributor imo, though as I had noted in the past Kirby did substantially better than I had thought it would pre launch.
They will do a specific press release with first week world wide numbers like they did with U4.
Math inaccuracies aside, the numbers are good for everyone.
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At the very least, I think Switch is doing well enough to discredit the notion that it will somehow collapse in 2018, which is the notion I have seen thrown around the web (ERA included).
I think ps4 super slim at 7nm,which we will get i guess by the late 2019,will do wonders at $199 and later probably at $149,Sony can sell that thing for years to come, just like ps2 slim!
That sort of thinking never made any sense on any level. Switch is and will continue to perform great in the market.
Fortnite is driving the industry at the moment, but it goes far beyond hardware. More on that on Tuesday.
So, safe to assume now that Kirby overall launched with great numbers in every part of the world minus UK ?
They lead hardware sales for the month at $300 to $400, they don't need the price cut yet.
Problem is they feel like there is no competition, they don't feel threaten looking at their competitors software lineup. It affects the consumer negativaly because we get no price drops.
Xbox in a vacuum is having the most impressive performance of 2018 for me. Simply because the growth for it has been so strong.
PS4 obviously has an outstanding performance, as does Switch, but the growth Xbox is seeing compared to last year is pretty crazy.
Last year for XB1 was pretty bad though, do you know how well does it compare with 2016 for a better comparison?