I mostly agree, but I think $499 for the complete bundle is the lower floor.I honestly think most likely is between 400 and 500 for the full kit. The lighthouses are still very expensive to manufacture. It'd be very impressive if they could get this down to 400. I think closer to 500 is more likely though (for everything).
For anyone thinking it's too low, the rumors seem to be holding fairly true. There's nothing that's really expensive (outside of lighthouse). Fully expect 1440X1600 LCD based on yesterday's leaks. It seems like they're shooting for a premium consumer experience at a somewhat mainstream price.
Even with a reasonable HMD in terms of technology, I think they might actually lose money below that.
There's a lot of technology in each of the knuckles controllers, and the lighthouses need precision engineering of moving parts.
Edit: I have to say, I love the thread header image.