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Version 3.0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,215
I'm totally hyped.

I hesitantly predict it'll actually not make as much money as Infinity War, though. First, because if it provides some closure to the story, people may not be as inclined to see it multiple times. I personally went to see Infinity War again almost as a compulsion; the story wasn't done (and was also awesome, of course). And second, because a 3 hour movie might also be a bit of a deterrent for multiple viewings.

I assume it's going to break every opening weekend record, though.
 

Lebron

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,582
ADIOS AVATAR

TA TA TITANIC
Avatar ran unchallenged for months during the holiday season into early of the year. This is releasing in the summer with movies (including from Disney) that will eat into its potential gains. This will be frontloaded as all hell and surely will body IW, TFA and Titanic, but it'll run out of steam before it's near Avatar. There's just not enough screens or exchange rates to get to those numbers.
 

riotous

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,353
Seattle
What does the AI say about Endgame

They got an NDA release on the Pacific Rim 2 thing so that we could show off the success of the tool (I work for the consulting company that wrote the code) but he can't tell me shit otherwise.

It was pretty cool getting an email days before the release of the movie with a rather precise prediction and believe me I'd love to have access to the damn thing but I'm not going to risk anyone getting in trouble lol
 
Oct 28, 2017
6,119
I'm totally hyped.

I hesitantly predict it'll actually not make as much money as Infinity War, though. First, because if it provides some closure to the story, people may not be as inclined to see it multiple times. I personally went to see Infinity War again almost as a compulsion; the story wasn't done (and was also awesome, of course). And second, because a 3 hour movie might also be a bit of a deterrent for multiple viewings.

I assume it's going to break every opening weekend record, though.

The vast, vast majority of people don't see movies multiple times in theaters. It doesn't matter how rewatchable the movie is.
 

Deleted member 18742

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,834
They got an NDA release on the Pacific Rim 2 thing so that we could show off the success of the tool (I work for the consulting company that wrote the code) but he can't tell me shit otherwise.

It was pretty cool getting an email days before the release of the movie with a rather precise prediction and believe me I'd love to have access to the damn thing but I'm not going to risk anyone getting in trouble lol
Ah gotcha yeah don't risk anyone's jobs over it lol!
 

Yams

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,857
There are multiple people on this site that bought tickets to every screening on the first day.

This 5:1 thing does not surprise me
 

Hero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,813
What's tracking for OW at right now? 300 million domestic in the cards?
 

kurahador

Member
Oct 28, 2017
17,582
I think the question whether or not this beat Avatar will depends on China. I don't think it's possible to predict China's market.
 
Nov 1, 2017
3,201
What's tracking for OW at right now? 300 million domestic in the cards?

Tracking at 260-280 million. 300 is a stretch but it's so hard to accurately track releases opening over 200m cause it's such a small dataset. So I guess it could happen if an unprecedented number of theaters are willing to kick other movies to the curb sooner than they normally would to put in more Avengers showtimes instead.
 

Rivenblade

Member
Nov 1, 2017
37,132
Final movies in a series almost always do better than their predecessors. This is going to be MASSIVE.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,335
Seattle
Tracking at 260-280 million. 300 is a stretch but it's so hard to accurately track releases opening over 200m cause it's such a small dataset. So I guess it could happen if an unprecedented number of theaters are willing to kick other movies to the curb sooner than they normally would to put in more Avengers showtimes instead.

Infinity war was tracking between 195-225 I believe originally, it came in at 257 million.. Hell this was also tracking between 200-250 million, and it got bumped again apparently up to 280. Only thing holding this thing back is run time
 

Rvaan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,734
Tracking at 260-280 million. 300 is a stretch but it's so hard to accurately track releases opening over 200m cause it's such a small dataset. So I guess it could happen if an unprecedented number of theaters are willing to kick other movies to the curb sooner than they normally would to put in more Avengers showtimes instead.
I think there is at least 1 country with a chain that is just going to be showing Endgame that week.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,335
Seattle
I think due to the age of social media, memes and such, people who are not even much invested in the MCU will see it as they, like you wrote, fear they might miss out.

There is something to be said about experiencing something with many other people. I feel like this fits into that. We usually watch MCU movies on the 2nd weekend, Its usually a little more calmer, but my wife was dead certain we had to watch opening weekend
 

maximumzero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,951
New Orleans, LA
Went with a standard digital showing for 6PM opening night.

Might opt for a IMAX/Dolby showing the following weekend when things are (much) cheaper and more available.
 

Bengraven

Member
Oct 26, 2017
26,913
Florida
This is the first time I preordered tickets.

The night IF was released I drove to GNV to go see it and everything was sold out. I had never seen that before and I won't let it happen again.

Took me three days to see it and I was spoiled.
 

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,570
Avatar ran unchallenged for months during the holiday season into early of the year. This is releasing in the summer with movies (including from Disney) that will eat into its potential gains. This will be frontloaded as all hell and surely will body IW, TFA and Titanic, but it'll run out of steam before it's near Avatar. There's just not enough screens or exchange rates to get to those numbers.

It would be incredible if it beat Avatar for this very reason. I don't believe it will personally but those first week numbers should be something else.
 

Mesoian

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 28, 2017
26,613
I believe it. I got tickets for infinity war easily. We can't have our usual movie pregame gathering at the local pub because all my friends had to get tickets at separate theaters this time. First time it's ever happened.
 

CenaToon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,298
1 Billion OW is possible??? (but the movie's length tells me probably no)

I cant stand with all this hype
 

Deleted member 30411

User-requested account closure
Banned
Nov 3, 2017
1,516
I may have gone to the cinema 3 times in the last 10 years. Spiderverse, Force Awakens aaand..... ok twice in the last 10 years. This is midnight shit. Tickets are booked, I cannot wait.
 

Deleted member 54292

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 27, 2019
2,636
Opening night of IW was awesome and our crowd was great. So excited to do it again. I am seriously giddy about this big finale.
 

subpar spatula

Refuses to Wash his Ass
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
22,187
Well, yeah. Online ticket records will continue to be broken until it levels out. BO is what matters.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
I stand by the fact that Infinty War ending with a cliffhanger is the best choice marvel ever did.

There are millions of people just dying to see what happens, and no one wants to get spoiled.

It's gonna be crazy.
 

bossmonkey

Avenger
Nov 9, 2017
2,504
As much as I want it to, it's not going to beat Avatar just because it has competition. Avatar released at the end of the busy Christmas season and ran through the January slump. There is a reason why it's only the 95th best opening weekend, all time domestic. It had legs on legs on legs, which is ironically how Titanic made so much money. Endgame has basically 2 weeks to crack $2billion worldwide if not a little more because then comes Pikachu, John Wick, Aladdin, and Godzilla week after week. It'll still be a monster and will probably have an unprecidented second week from the people that want to avoid the crowds but it won't have the necessary legs to beat Avatar.
 

Version 3.0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,215
These things never say how many, or what percent of tickets are pre-sold. Obviously this is a big deal, and more people are doing it, since there are a lot of sold-out shows. I pre-bought tickets myself, which I've never done more than a day in advance before.

But what are the real numbers? Say a big pre-sale movie has $100 million opening. Were 10% of the tickets pre-sold? Or 1%? I can't imagine it's very high. Hell, just the fact that it's 5-to-1 over Infinity War means that there's room for that large of an increase.
 

spad3

Member
Oct 30, 2017
7,125
California
300M OW needs to happen just so I can see it.

If its presale is tracking at 5x the amount of Infinity War, for reference, IW made $39m on opening night (Thursday).

IF we take the claims for granted, that means Endgame's opening night (Thursday) is currently sitting at around $195m.

That's THURSDAY alone.

$300m opening weekend is a low bar for this movie. Personally $600m sounds more reasonable of an opening weekend number for this beast.
 

tollo

Member
Sep 2, 2018
19
Why are people talking like Avatar was the only movie in theaters. It had Sherlock and Chipmunks there opening week after it. Both made over 200 million.