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BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson

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Xando

Xando

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Oct 28, 2017
27,422
kmag said:
The problem for DUP is that Johnson's initial proposal put them on the ledge, the other unionist parties didn't support it so the DUP were left defending it on the basis of their "veto" and now that's been taken away.
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Yeah but they never were gonna get a DUP veto that wouldn't fly with the EU in any case. It's a pure pipe dream. Now instead of stormont having a say they will get shafted with no say at all when boris wins the election. I get that they're pure ideologists but at some point they have to understand the realpolitik that Ireland and the EU won't sacrifice nationalists to get a deal done.
 

Deleted member 31104

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Xando said:
Yeah but they never were gonna get a DUP veto that wouldn't fly with the EU in any case. It's a pure pipe dream. Now instead of stormont having a say they will get shafted with no say at all when boris wins the election. I get that they're pure ideologists but at some point they have to understand the realpolitik that Ireland and the EU won't sacrifice nationalists to get a deal done.
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The only pressure on them is from their backers in the farming community, the nature of their vote and the hollowed out state of the UUP means bar two seats they're not going lose many seats. They're more at risk in the Stormont elections but they'll crash the assembly if Sinn Fein are the largest party. So they're not in much danger from the electorate.

Johnson didn't give them the ability to save face. The DUP are not a pragmatic party, they need an obvious and loud win to climb down from a position. Johnson hasn't given them that. And it'll only get worse when the actual legal text is produced. Hell I think all the parties (ERG, DUP, ex-Tory wets and Labour Leave) Johnson is after will throw a shit fit at that point.
 
eonden

eonden

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Oct 25, 2017
17,104
Xando said:
Don't underestimate the possibility.

Just today Macron vetoed Albania and northern Macedonia becoming EU candidates for no real reason.
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Albania and Northern Macedonia have current issues between themselves w.r.t. their borders, so it makes sense not to have them as candidates until that is sorted out (similarly to N.Macedonia and Greece).
 
Ando

Ando

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Apr 21, 2018
744
always wonder what this country would look like if the lib dems in coalition had shown even a scrap of the same obstinacy and willingness to derail the governments primary agenda if it doesn't suit their goals as the the DUP have
 
kharma45

kharma45

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Oct 26, 2017
3,405
Antrax said:
Businesses have already been doing the calculus on this for years now. That's why any of them in the UK who can move into the continent have been making plans to do all that.

I don't think that's reversible no matter what happens either. If I'm a business in that situation, why not just move now and bid farewell to Brexit altogether.
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I meant from a Northern Ireland situation.

75% of our private sector is employed by SMEs. It's unlikely they can just up and leave to the EU like a multinational. For them now being unable to plan more than 4 years ahead if this went through would being extremely detrimental to our already fragile economy.
 
Rodelero

Rodelero

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Oct 27, 2017
11,621
Tzarscream said:
Do the ERG care about the DUP? The ERG are English, I'd thought they'd be happy to sell NI down the river to get their perfidious albion on speed.
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I don't think most of them do, but it was certainly their primary excuse last time around. I'd say whether they care about the DUP depends mostly on whether or not they think no deal is likely to happen. If Boris won't do it... they might panic.
 
danowat

danowat

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Oct 27, 2017
5,783
So one hardliner, someone who voted down TM's deal numerous times this morning said "I'd vote for a pig in a poke just to get this over the line"

Maybe a few more million pounds will turn the DUP's head, they are probably just playing blink as well.
 
Garfield

Garfield

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To be honest if Boris is smart he can play this well, bring the deal back, let it get voted down, then say I will get the extension as clearly this is the best deal so we will need an election..

Once he has his extension, he will get his election, and there is his playbook, I need a majority to get my deal


And the plonker should of never offered the DUP a Veto, they had their dream so anything less than that was always going to hurt for them
 
danowat

danowat

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Oct 27, 2017
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Garfield said:
To be honest if Boris is smart he can play this well, bring the deal back, let it get voted down, then say I will get the extension as clearly this is the best deal so we will need an election..

Once he has his extension, he will get his election, and there is his playbook, I need a majority to get my deal
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But what about that ditch?
 

Deleted member 5028

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But what the DUP has an issue with is that the mechanism that has been negotiated would give the suspended Stormont Assembly a final vote on whether to keep these rules going.

However, it is understood issues around securing the consent of Stormont to the new customs regime have become paramount.

The fear in the DUP is that under the simple majority vote required by the EU to ensure continued membership of the new customs arrangement, the unionist community would have no veto.
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What utter wank that one community based on religion should have priority over all others.
 
Rodelero

Rodelero

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Oct 27, 2017
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Garfield said:
To be honest if Boris is smart he can play this well, bring the deal back, let it get voted down, then say I will get the extension as clearly this is the best deal so we will need an election..

Once he has his extension, he will get his election, and there is his playbook, I need a majority to get my deal


And the plonker should of never offered the DUP a Veto, they had their dream so anything less than that was always going to hurt for them
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I don't think that's an ideal strategy given how much of their vote wants no deal and hated May's deal. Their ideal strategy is one where they can drag along dealers and no dealers and that is fast becoming impossible.
 

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Garfield said:
To be honest if Boris is smart he can play this well, bring the deal back, let it get voted down, then say I will get the extension as clearly this is the best deal so we will need an election..

Once he has his extension, he will get his election, and there is his playbook, I need a majority to get my deal


And the plonker should of never offered the DUP a Veto, they had their dream so anything less than that was always going to hurt for them
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There's problems with that. Polling suggests most people want a deal, but the particulars of any deal alienate large proportions of that mass. Then you have the extremes on either side neither of which want a deal. Johnson won't get the remainers, but by offering a deal he opens up a gap for the Brexit party, and even in the middle it's not clear whether people will like the deal which is on offer (it offers nothing to the remain orientated dealers, and while it's good for the leave orientated dealers they're going to have Farage crooning in their ear).
 

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SlipperyFishes said:
What utter wank that one community based on religion should have priority over all others.
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The problem for the DUP is that absent a veto for them, there's an implicit veto for the other side even if it's by crashing Stormont to get it.

As Tony Connelly from RTE describes it, if Stormont votes to leave the arrangement on a simple majority, it starts a two year standstill which only leads to leaving if Stormont is still sitting. Sinn Fein can just pull the plug on Stormont (which on average happens every 3 years anyway) and reset the clock.
 

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kmag said:
The problem for the DUP is that absent a veto for them, there's an implicit veto for the other side even if it's by crashing Stormont to get it.

As Tony Connelly from RTE describes it, if Stormont votes to leave the arrangement on a simple majority, it starts a two year standstill which only leads to leaving if Stormont is still sitting. Sinn Fein can just pull the plug on Stormont (which on average happens every 3 years anyway) and reset the clock.
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Yet a veto lets them overrule anything and create their own little duchy. You saw it with abortion in true recent past. They're religious butters more closely aligned to the GOP than the Conservatives.

for the problem you outline they need to have fallbacks in place to prevent a dissolution of stormont. And the reason SF walked out was the DUPs refusal to face the music on the cash for ash bullshit. Arlene didn't want to give up her spot so SF called her bluff
 

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holygeesus said:
Sounds like it is over to me. Even talk of the parliamentary sitting on Saturday being off as well.
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It's over , DUP and eu have the Gov over a barrel. They are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Go too far into the dup/erg direction and the deal falls though with the eu, the opposite and he loses every vote he needs in parliament.

He has ran into the same issue may had, and he could have easily avoided if he didn't paint himself into a corner from day 1 of him being the pm.

Garfield said:
To be honest if Boris is smart he can play this well, bring the deal back, let it get voted down, then say I will get the extension as clearly this is the best deal so we will need an election..

Once he has his extension, he will get his election, and there is his playbook, I need a majority to get my deal


And the plonker should of never offered the DUP a Veto, they had their dream so anything less than that was always going to hurt for them
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He isn't smart, cunning, sly etc, but not smart. Hes been making major mistakes since day 1.

He cant really play an extension in his favour. Its fucking intolerable to millions of leavers and the bxp is ready and poised to strike to gain all of them and fuck up the cons. The extension, now inevitable, is music to their ears.
 

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SlipperyFishes said:
Yet a veto lets them overrule anything and create their own little duchy. You saw it with abortion in true recent past. They're religious butters more closely aligned to the GOP than the Conservatives.

for the problem you outline they need to have fallbacks in place to prevent a dissolution of stormont. And the reason SF walked out was the DUPs refusal to face the music on the cash for ash bullshit. Arlene didn't want to give up her spot so SF called her bluff
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If change anything about Stormont functioning then you're into a GFA/St Andrew's style negotiation, that's not going to happen.

I know why SF walked out cover cash for ash, but the point is in the proposals it gives them an incentive to do so if they lose the vote on continuing the deal.

The problem for the DUP is they've got no way to save face. The UUP is attacking them over the differentiation of NI and everyone else is just attacking them, they get nothing to show for it except the NI is notionally in the UK's CU even though in practice it isn't (something which apparently will become clearer in the legal text), and some more dosh.

Look I'm really no fan of the DUP. I'm a 3rd generation Scottish Catholic (lapsed) with close family from Derry and my wife is from Donegal, I just don't see what the current proposal gives the DUP. Johnson fucked up with his letter because the DUP has spent the best part of two weeks crowing about their veto as their sole victory and now it's gone. I don't know how he fixes this, except by trying to get Labour Leave support which will alienate the ERG.
 
Zastava

Zastava

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Feb 19, 2018
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Protome said:
Not really. It basically guarantees Boris's deal passes, which makes the following GE even more one sided.
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You keep saying that a ref is riskier despite remain being up by 6 points consistently against all leave options combined, a lead that always grows against a specific leave outcome, but somehow a GE is the better option with the Tories consistently up 10 points and Corbyn having the most dire personal ratings fucking ever?

I don't get your thinking at all. If Johnson gets a majority, as he almost certainly will with current polling, he can do whatever the fuck he wants whether it's no deal or whatever garbage deal he ends up with.

I'm not saying a ref is a sure win or anything, but it looks a fuck load safer than a GE.
 
Koukalaka

Koukalaka

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Oct 28, 2017
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Zastava said:
You keep saying that a ref is riskier despite remain being up by 6 points consistently against all leave options combined, a lead that always grows against a specific leave outcome, but somehow a GE is the better option with the Tories consistently up 10 points and Corbyn having the most dire personal ratings fucking ever?

I don't get your thinking at all. If Johnson gets a majority, as he almost certainly will with current polling, he can do whatever the fuck he wants whether it's no deal or whatever garbage deal he ends up with.

I'm not saying a ref is a sure win or anything, but it looks a fuck load safer than a GE.
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Yep - not only that, a specific deal to run against it will allow a) it to be scrutinized to hell and b) allow a GE to run with Brexit mostly out of the equation, which Labour surely wants?
 
Protome

Protome

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Oct 27, 2017
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Zastava said:
You keep saying that a ref is riskier despite remain being up by 6 points consistently against all leave options combined, a lead that always grows against a specific leave outcome, but somehow a GE is the better option with the Tories consistently up 10 points and Corbyn having the most dire personal ratings fucking ever?

I don't get your thinking at all. If Johnson gets a majority, as he almost certainly will with current polling, he can do whatever the fuck he wants whether it's no deal or whatever garbage deal he ends up with.

I'm not saying a ref is a sure win or anything, but it looks a fuck load safer than a GE.
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Because the polling was inaccurate before and I have no faith that it'll be accurate this time. The most reliable polls from last time are all well within the margin of error this time, not "up by 6 points consistently." And these aren't two separate issues, winning a referendum will guarantee the Tories a significant vote bump in a GE. And the Tories wont be sidetracked with a WA so they'll actually start pushing their real shit through again.

Koukalaka said:
Yep - not only that, a specific deal to run against it will allow a) it to be scrutinized to hell and b) allow a GE to run with Brexit mostly out of the equation, which Labour surely wants?
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Scrutinising a deal doesn't really matter though. Brexit voters ignored facts last time they'll ignore them this time.
 
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