So, this is where I'm at right now.
I was thinking it when Kopite died, but with Zipped here, this certainly seems to form a profile that at least one of the remaining scum are new to scum and/or don't have many games under their belts. Killing Kopite on N2 when there was a claimed doctor and cop in play means they were probably afraid that Kopite would have more than one shot, but I assumed immediately that Kopite only had one just from general experience with games this size and X-shot roles.
Now it's Zipped who's dead and I also assumed he had two shots. Instead of letting us wallow in the WIFOM behind Zipped really being the doctor, whether my green check on Vere is legit, and whether I'm really the cop, they solve one of those puzzles for us.
I could tell you right away what I would've done - and what I think Nat/LP would've done, because they have the experience to make those role assumptions - is kill Zipped on N2 and me on N3.
This is what I said at day start today. I felt like I could call with a high degree of certainty that Neki was going to be the night kill last night, but he wasn't. This is a mystery to me because Zipped, Vere, and I had more WIFOM and doubt surrounding us than Neki did, so to pick out the one player who would have the hardest time defending himself today based on his D3 standing is weird. Kopite being killed on N2 also did not feel right to me, because I just assumed Kopite had a single shot; I don't think scum assumed the same. I think I was missing pieces from this puzzle, though, and I might have found them.
I'm not going to dig up Zipped's case against Pancakes because it was conditional (😎) on Randvere being scum, but he voted her two days in a row. Simply, I think Zipped was killed partially to get Zipped off Pancake's back.
Here's another piece of evidence:
To me, Zipped is an enigma. I really need to see more to form a real opinion. The only thing I really remember from Zipped is that he didn't like me mentioning his name at the end of Day 1. Yeah, there was some sort of claim, but has it been proven true? Did it have a known, tangible impact on the game? Am I missing something?
I don't necessarily think that Zipped is scum, but right now I certainly don't have a town read at all.
I know we don't have proof that there is a protective role in this game yet, but it's a safe bet. The scum roleblocker points us in that direction and it's just a basic expectation for most games. It would be extremely risky for scum to fake claim a protective role because there would be only one in a game this size, and so it would just be a matter of time before either the real doctor comes forward or the real doctor ends up dead. And if that happens, I don't think Zipped is going to be able to convince anyone he's the real doctor. Zipped's been around the block and I think he's well aware it's a bad plan.
So, easiest solution for me is, Zipped is the real doctor. Also, Zipped has a tendency to soft power roles way earlier than he needs to. I think he was out as the doctor for the majority of a recent-ish game we were both in.
I think this could be where Pancakes realized that it was only a matter of time before Zipped was confirmed as town, and she as scum would certainly not try to counterclaim that, so in a towncore position Zipped would be able to go after her. I was immediately coming into today with the plan of having everyone mass claim to undo the Zipped knot and that was solved for me before I even had the chance.
The other thing here is the three towncore players left alive - myself, Vere, and Neki. I admit she may have pocketed me (as in, if she's scum; I've absolutely fallen for it); Vere town reads her; and Neki is somewhere in the middle, but he's not been actively gunning for Pancakes, either.
I would be able to brush off who Zipped was gunning for as the kill suspect because that's just WIFOM, but the timing of Zipped's death and the Kopite kill the previous night is a combination of facts that point in Pancakes' direction.
So, let me re-reread some of her earlier posts:
I'm very comfortable with my vote on EC right now. Whether he flips scum or town doesn't make a huge difference to me at this point in the game (i.e., day 1). I'm still convinced the situation is bad for town as it can have the potential to be an easy source of distraction, and be weaponized by scum to some degree (as I talked about
here and
here).
I really can't think of a better day 1 vote. Who else? I'm not sure about the alignment of anybody yet so I'm really not sure to hit scum. But voting out EC does bring positive advantages to the state of the game.
Randomless said I was voting for EC just because it was a good policy vote. I'm not totally sure what it means in this context, but I want to say that I'm not voting there because of the "EC is always telling the truth" meme. I'm voting EC because of the posts in the game, especially
this one,
this one, and
this one.
Unless something really big happens by the end of the day pointing toward scum, my vote will stay there. Monkey didn't scare me :p
---
Right now I give town vibes to:
– Monkey: Cautiously.
– Vincent Alexandre: Mostly a gut feeling right now. I like his posts.
– Donniewahlberg: Nothing really changed since the last time I made a town list. Tentative town read.
– anexanhume: Same as Donnie.
The rest is still null to me.
While Pancakes was adamant on trying to solve EC, EC was a safe choice to not draw attention to one's self. The case against EC was presented by Nat and myself, and I hanged out there pushing EC throughout D1. EC is anti-town by nature so he makes a good target. Tunneling in on that would give Pancakes a general air of towniness, regardless of whatever the outcome was because of some well-placed justification on how she wants to get rid of that distraction. Frankly, I don't blame her - that was a waste of time.
Interesting. Do you have someone else in mind then?
unvote
Don't want to risk the day ending prematurely.
Also, the fact that the thread is so quiet makes me nervous and reconsider my vote a bit... Something feels off. Should we still go with a Randomless flip? What do you all think?
To expand our horizon, why don't we post who we would be willing to vote for besides Randomless right now?
Here's my list of people I would be currently willing to place a vote on (same list as I wrote in another post earlier):
(Randomless)
Bojack
EvilChameleon
CaptainNuevo
LaunchpadMcQ
I'm OK to switch to Bojack if you're willing to vote there.
I've not really felt like Pancakes has led or started any wagons this game. Reviewing her D2, she accepted the case against Random based on Nat's flipped and what others had said about it. Pancakes eventually unvoted to play the part of the concerned townie after some others had raised points which favored Random. She tries to negotiate with me to vote for Bojack.
Captain presented a case on D3 where scum maybe juked a TvT D2 situation to make it seem like something bigger was going on. Pancakes was definitely on the cusp of that. It would be bold to try something like that as scum when there was no need to. But from her perspective, regardless of who flips, neither train would point back to her action here because neither was scum. It was not as risky a proposition as when a scum teammate was involved like on D1, where Pancakes did not move her vote at all.
When Random came back to the thread toward the end of the day, I really liked the posts. It seemed to me it was a genuine attempt to be helpful and solve. Questions where answered in a way that was helpful and seemed honest. Might be just an impression, though. That's why I'm interested to know what others are thinking.
On D3, Pancakes claimed that she was having doubts because Random's posts reading townie, but she did not state this on D2. The only reason she cited on D2 for switching off Random were that it was too quiet and that the Bojack case seemed more appealing.
I need to reread the past day, but here's a quick list illustrating my current perception of everybody in order from most to least town.
Launch
Vere (green check by Launch)
Neki
VA
Stan
CaptainNuevo
Anex
EC's posts would be my guess.
Here's my last point: I mentioned an hour or so ago that scum is just trying to run the clock down. I see several people that feel legitimately lost today, but in the greater context of Pancakes' reticence to push her own directions previously, I find her reads concerning because they do not really offer a direction for today. It simply provides all the players ordered by perception, but Pancakes has not pressed anex or Captain or anyone else further in the almost 12 hours since day start.
It feels like Pancakes might be trying to run the clock down.
