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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I think it was the August or September NPD prediction thread I stated 2019 will be -15% or more YoY, because of the inflationary effect of Fortnite + GoW & Spidey.
Yep, official PS4s price-cut will help surely this 2019. That won't be the case for X1 because it was on sale during whole 2018 unlike PS4
Yes it is. It's one of their high profile 1st party title. It's not even for debate.
All big title are not bound to sell 10 million copies... Detroit was one of the big high profile title for PS4. Was it as big as Spiderman or God of of War ? Of course not, but that's was AAA. No question.
Entirely possible
The first half of the year will be where it's really difficult. Fortnite pushed so much hardware
That will never happen again lol
Side note.
Also it funny that there will be no GTA made for this gen but it's still going to be best selling game this gen lol.
I think the decision to reduce the PS4 price for Sony will be after Q1 sales, like if PS4 did ~200K in January and +300K in February and March then i think Sony will wait a little bit more, but if it did something like 150K In January and ~200K in February and March then Sony will do a price drop immediately.
"Nintendo announces Switch price drop at $199 as well as official Animal Crossing and Pokemon release dates in December"
Gotta say, if not for the lack of time and the side eye I think I'd get for bringing another console into the house, a $200 PS4 would be tempting as hell.
I was just saying that sharing inside information needs carefulness because information can be easily misunderstood especially in a gaming forum. Great/relevant knowledge needs great responsibility. When I leaked stuffs I didn't feel to participate much in the debate because users on gaming forums tend to misbehave. Mine is an advice and I don't want to block/ignore you.
Oh I definitely understand why there's a huge difference, more so just commenting on how utterly insane it is that they sold over 3 million Wiis AND DS's in the same month.
You framed it as crackdown being a big title to help move consoles for xbox.
That's what my reply was to. Not that it's not a AAA title.
On a side note, game is less than a month away and I swear they have done almost no marketing for it.
That metric's not much of a concern with these holiday sales wiping out that lead.
I actually updated this post. Used the outdated PS4 total for 2017. Now up to current estimates.
now to zzz
No way, I think it's undetstated how much Apple and Samsung ate into that market.
Good number for Switch, people just got a bit carried away with their expectations.
Kind of a bad showing for PS4 and XB1.
Kind of a bad showing for PS4 and XB1.
This is probably correct. I don't think you'll see DS/Wii type numbers again, casuals ran off with Apple/Android and are never coming back to paying for games again. Streaming will take over consoles before that type of craze/fad happens again for the game business.
Ehhhh I've been thinking about retiring from Era / Twitter for a while now
I put an unhealthy amount of myself, my free time, and my career on the line for what exactly? It helps drive conversations and that feels good. But I also get harassed endlessly about any single thing I get wrong while ignoring the stuff I get right.
I'm already being harassed on Twitter about the 2 million Switch
What exactly do I get out of all this?
Idk folks the end really might be here tbh
If you personally feel that it'd be better to avoid social media regarding this sort of stuff, than that's understandable. You should go for what's best for you. Personally, I'd miss your insights on how sales are tracking for the various systems throughout the years
Even if you stop leaking stuff stay around for the fun .
Nothing wrong with just talking about games and other stuff.
Be like pork and barely say anything besides 1 line and then never enter sales related thread again till later on.
That's not my style though
I'm all in or I'm all out. I do this because I have PASSION for it
Fuck I already have nearly 7,000 posts on Era in the short time it's been here
But idk. I really think I may be done with the gaming community. It's taken more from me than its given back
If you do decide to retire as an insider, then I hope you still stick around in sales threads for the conversations.
I appreciate all the generosity you've shown to the community over the years and apologize on behalf of all the irrational folk that you've ever had the misfortune of dealing with.
nah man. you seem to have fun in sharing stuff, so keep doing it! do what you like the more, really
Stick around, there's still people that appreciate you, just probably steer clear of any hard predictions because some people get just way too worked up for whatever reason.
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Well I can't speak for anyone else but I have found your posts informative and enjoy reading them, always.
Hopefully you'll reconsider.
It's not like that has been a complete safeguard from nonsensical backlash, though.
Like others have said, you probably shared too much this past month against your own good.
Maybe treat this as fun side activity?
The moment it isn't fun, you should just stop doing it.
Welp, it's been a good run. Thanks for all your insight and all the best to you.
Benji, consider the case of vern, who was a leaker. He decided that leaking wasn't worth it anymore and retired as a leaker. However, he stayed as a regular poster.
I hope you consider doing the same. You don't have to keep being an insider just to stick around as a member of this community.
I'd be more than happy to have you around with or without your valuable insights.
Thing is it will be hard for me to talk about sales without my own personal input bleeding into it
It's literally what I do for a living so tough to talk about the industry without giving my input on it
Expected PS4/One results and great Switch performance.
PS. Some of you take sales-era way too serious. This includes Benji - you pretty much predicted the month correctly and made sure to repeat a bunch of times that the Switch performance was difficult to read.
It still ended up doing the expected PS4+One numbers. Not your fault when people hype themselves up for weeks for higher not confirmed numbers.
PS. Some of you take sales-era way too serious. This includes Benji - you pretty much predicted the month correctly and made sure to repeat a bunch of times that the Switch performance was difficult to read.
It still ended up doing the expected PS4+One numbers. Not your fault when people hype themselves up for weeks for higher not confirmed numbers.
So with official numbers for sell-through of 3.39M in North America, potentially around 3.75M shipped. Week 1 in Japan was around 200K sell-through so they likely shipped at least 2.35M in Japan for the quarter. So from those two territories we have 6.10M shipped.
So they should clear or be extremely close to 10M units shipped for the quarter, and to reach the fiscal year goal we are going to have to see big growth in the final quarter. I can see this occurring in Japan where we are likely to see 33% to 50% increase YoY for the final quarter. Smash momentum is being helped by NSMBU Deluxe launch.
Famitsu 2018 Week 1 & 2:
Week 1: 159.636
Week 2: 31.189
TOTAL: 190.825
Famitsu 2019 Week 1 & 2:
Week 1: 225.698(+41%)
Week 2: 83.136(+167%)
TOTAL: 308.834(+62%)
Last year for the remaining 11 Week of the quarter Switch sold 480.563 which is roughly a baseline of 43.687 per week. I can see remaining weeks having 60K baseline this year due to Smash/NSMBU Deluxe and a lot more 3rd party titles launching in this quarter compared to last year. Yoshi is surely a smaller title than Kirby but Kirby only provided an 8K boost to hardware sales last year. With this Switch will be at around 1.1M shipped in Japan for the first quarter. If Japan maintains 25% of shipped amount World Wide that's around 4.4M shipped. So they are going to be very close to hitting their goal as long as they see the momentum built over the holidays maintained into this quarter in other territories. That's without launching a revision or permanently dropping the price
So they should clear or be extremely close to 10M units shipped for the quarter, and to reach the fiscal year goal we are going to have to see big growth in the final quarter. I can see this occurring in Japan where we are likely to see 33% to 50% increase YoY for the final quarter. Smash momentum is being helped by NSMBU Deluxe launch.
Famitsu 2018 Week 1 & 2:
Week 1: 159.636
Week 2: 31.189
TOTAL: 190.825
Famitsu 2019 Week 1 & 2:
Week 1: 225.698(+41%)
Week 2: 83.136(+167%)
TOTAL: 308.834(+62%)
Last year for the remaining 11 Week of the quarter Switch sold 480.563 which is roughly a baseline of 43.687 per week. I can see remaining weeks having 60K baseline this year due to Smash/NSMBU Deluxe and a lot more 3rd party titles launching in this quarter compared to last year. Yoshi is surely a smaller title than Kirby but Kirby only provided an 8K boost to hardware sales last year. With this Switch will be at around 1.1M shipped in Japan for the first quarter. If Japan maintains 25% of shipped amount World Wide that's around 4.4M shipped. So they are going to be very close to hitting their goal as long as they see the momentum built over the holidays maintained into this quarter in other territories. That's without launching a revision or permanently dropping the price
Harassed. Jeez dude don't even bother anymore. Not worth the hassle.
Oh some results! Hopefully some of you guys survived! hehe
Basically, Switch did the best December of the Holiday but not as high as speculated. But still managed to become the best seller of 2018
Xbox and PS4 took a bit of a dive in December but still did good for the entire year thanks to a pretty great year up until the ending.
Basically, Switch did the best December of the Holiday but not as high as speculated. But still managed to become the best seller of 2018
Xbox and PS4 took a bit of a dive in December but still did good for the entire year thanks to a pretty great year up until the ending.
Exactly, it's almost a dead or alive situation for some people! Relax guys...
Understandable.
I'd ask if you could consider just steering clear of sales threads next, but I realize that the ERA sales community must have been your main point of interest in ResetERA in the first place, so that might be a pointless suggestion.
Oh well, thanks for everything.
I never said anywhere Crackdown 3 would move units. However having consistently games coming on your platform help sales. I don't think games such as Arms, Kirby or Mario Tennis on Switch are killer aps per se. BUT they strongly contributed to good sales. It will be the same case with Crackdown 3.
Now I fully agree with you. The marketing has been poor so far. So much so I'm wondering if they are not going to delay the game again. Or maybe the game is so bad, they prefer to stealth release it. Weird indeed.
Enjoy your rest Benji :) thanks for all your input it's appreciated
Those numbers are US only though right? Another 10% or so in sales for Canada/Mexico and South America should probably be a somewhat more accurate sell through number. I think NA as a whole is north of 4M in shipments for the quarter.