I was not talking about that. I was about Pirate Bae's almost-impossible-to-win neutral condition.
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MafiEra Mafia |OT| The Day of the Blargonauts
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
I was not talking about that. I was about Pirate Bae's almost-impossible-to-win neutral condition.
I know they're in the "no good reason" list, but, thoughts on Turmoil? Curious about his placement in your list; out of the four that were in Brazil's kill list and not on Stan's that also voted for him (Zubz, Flux, Terra and Turmoil), he stands out as being higher than I would have guessed.
Also, AB being on top of that no-lynch list I find odd, with the amount of posts they have.
I'll just quote you together. The number of shots isn't the issue, that fact that he could shoot day 1 is. There is also way too much got a scum vig in a game this size but I'm not even taking that into account because we don't know it's true.
And yes Saw, you're right, but that many natural bullet proofs would be ridiculous and I'd rather wait to lynch someone who is probably town or at worst neutral then just chop him off on a very fringe assumption.
Sometimes neutrals are there as a support to the main factions instead of being a power player all their own.
/shrug
Your explanation for why CeeCee makes that move as neutral/scum hinges on the idea that it was likely for CeeCee to be offed today and thus the claim was needed to diffuse that. I'm not sure I buy into that argument.
Still one of my favorite games. (Thanks for the win Sorian)
Also I put nin in my nulls list but honestly that's because I'm hoping to be able to tunnel him later. I swear if you're scum, I'll have my revenge this game.
Is this the one where I was right at the end and no one cared? Don't thank me, not my fault.
Also I have 0 idea which way I'm voting on the modifier. I guess I'll steer clear of the "non-game" games like RNG and MDTLA, but other than that, eh. Maybe NX for old times sake.
Alright, read these over. Top quote is the one that makes me feel the best about Flux but the rest just kinda leave me feeling bad. If I get this right, Flux's whole argument with Febe is that he didn't want to bring up old arguments but was asked to and he does this by...staying on the Febe argument. He is doing some other things here and there but it's just odd to harp on.
Still don't think he is Scum though.
Then what Day is the right time to lynch him? Next phase? End game? This is all built off the theory of balance and assuming (if he is Town) that he may get picked off by Scum. I'd rather get rid of that uncertainty than keep it around.
Make sure to vote Conspiracy first to make it truly poetic
If you want I can quote the people that all said 'CeeCee is a fine choice for today' if you want. Besides maybe Ket or Fran/Chuggs, CeeCee was the biggest lynch choice by a wide margin. If you're Neutral (or Scum) you tag on to those negatives views of you with a lot more weight than you would as Town. He got nervous thinking he was the 'clear cut choice' and shot Stan.
Why is CeeCee the only consistency here? Or rather, what happened to Blarg, especially since you said you were always for lynching Blarg? What happened to Faddy? I can see you justified Terra, but I want to know what happened to change your mind on these others.
I'm particularly interested because these reads are what made me think you might be more town - they were different from others. Not great, but different, and I'd think with most people circling the same targets, it'd be easier for mafia to blend end.
But now you're blending, mostly, except on CeeCee. You're specifically sheeping the leader and also Sneeks, and while you added text there, it's not new and it's related to your CeeCee obsession. Sneeks, too, is the only other person who is holding that line.
I don't know that it pushes you into scum territory for me. In fact, you're still sticking out. But it's notable and odd. If it turns out everyone is wrong and some of the primary shared reads are incorrect, I think I would look harder here.
AB I thought was just busy but then also promised he'd be here. His star is falling - but that lynch gives us nothing today, so I wouldn't advocate it. If he still stays MIA? Sure. turmoil I talked about. I feel like turmoil, at least to me, always seems kinda shady and not fully present but reveals himself one way or another later. I'd rather take a wait and see there. No reason to defend either, but not a lot of reason to lynch them today either. I'd rather use the crapshoot d1 maybe lynch to try to get someone who will give us something even if we're wrong and they flip town. Call me pragmatic.
I'll say myself that I would not be mad at a CeeCee lynch and he could be neutral. I just don't think he's scum is all and I can see merit in either one. But Brazil has the keys to the kingdom and said he wouldn't kill CeeCee today so I'm not sure why it'd be worth arguing either way. :/
Ok. Both make sense though the turmoil read is too meta for me and I still don't think that explains the ordering which is what stood out to me but it's not like I'm gonna make you explain the entire list in detail :P thanks.
Well at the very least, I want to know if there are really more shots because I'm kind of skeptical. The more shots he has the more likely he is to be neutral. As far as when is the right time, that's a silly question. It's impossible to say, if he isn't town then we probably do have a vig somewhere, they should be shooting him anyway as a counter claim. Talks about him don't evaporate after today, there are better people to kill today, there may not be on another day.
Terraforce has basically taken Faddy's place in my mind for the same reason, but being more actively confrontational instead of trying to reason. Faddy hasn't really stood out to me since then, though I should consider that more.
For Blarg, it's whatever. I had no real feelings towards that lynch when I stated it, other than the potential reduction of noise. But he's been more reasonable lately, and I can actually kinda understand what he's going for. I do not think he'd be a good lynch target today.
Nope, it was the one we were both neutral in and you won despite my death.
But think that through - if he's neutral/scum and nervous he's on the chopping block why not just claim before taking the shot? Why shoot someone fairly townread if you're just out for survival? It makes far more sense that it's just shit town play.
He claimed it was his Scumread.
Neutral makes more sense in this case. Think of it, you're Neutral with shots and get placed into a spot already with some heat. You're gone for a while and can't get your footing and when you get back everyone is fine with your death. What would you do in that spot? Not take a shot and just slide into death? Never said it was a good Neutral play either, it's just the one that fits his anti-town play before and after the shot.
?r? y?? s?r? y?? w?nt th?t
Oh, yeah that one was good :D
I did promise to avenge you, I didn't say when though. We've come full circle.
Keep it quiet but I think Brazil might be scum. But I am going to wait and see where he shoots first rather than make myself look like a fool.
This is a weird response to that quote. And just a weird thing to drop out of nowhere. Could I get you to elaborate or??
Really? Why? This promotion to leader and his reaction since than has made me think completely the opposite.
hey, no need to be that harsh !
still reading but you know what, i will just stay here from now and and enjoy the fuckery before i get called out for being "inactive".
even though i am enjoying my tea and reading through this mess
Nah don't worry, take your time and read. Your time will come either way.
watching that mess unfold only to land on my lap brings me only pain
Here's Stan joking about how he usually survives well into the games he plays.
I think Flux is saying I haven't been as controversial as the day has went on.
At this point I would rather not be shot so I am not going to go hard against Brazil since he has a gun. But he is one of my scum reads right now and a reason I didn't want him to get the power in the first place.
Short and bad, yes.
Do you have any reads for us Nin? I do like some Nin reads. Top two Town and Scum based on your impressions while catching up?
But why? I get you don't want to anger the guy with the gun and that's whatever but why do you have a scum read there?
Some sort of bias in how he is picking his shot. I guess if he is town his reasoning makes sense but the fact he immediately went towards people who voted for Stan to be leader is kind of troubling. If he is scum then scum is more likely to have tried to vote for him as leader.
I didn't want to go down this rabbit hole today. Brazil shoots scum and I look dumb.
thats the thing, even though i am still not nearly done, my impressions could have changed.
But you know what, give me a minute and i will try to give out the good old bad nin reads, even though i am trying to give out actual good reads this time....
lets see
Oh, I probably should have put AB way down to be honest but I also just think that would be a nothingburger lynch unless he happens to be scum. Kinda same for turmoil. No reason to lynch them, no reason not to, but I think we get more out of other potential flips.
But you're right on order. I paid more attention to some than others, which is why I said orderISH because I'm not super confident there.
alright, i'm off to work. gonna be in a meeting until after Day End so good luck and godspeed, Brazil.
For the scenario I'd prefer Love Boat for funsies but I wouldn't really say no to the others, especially Power Rangers. Likely going to be voting LB first though.
congrats nin, you've been promoted!
For the scenario I'd prefer Love Boat for funsies but I wouldn't really say no to the others, especially Power Rangers. Likely going to be voting LB first though.
with Stan dead we do need a new name-pun player...
congrats nin, you've been promoted!
No need to rush, just wondering if anything had caught your eye in particular I suppose. Looking forward whenever they come though!
Ok, I think I have some semblance of conviction now, but I'm gonna wait on the people I've asked to get back to me with stuff before laying it out there.
Gut reads only?
In order: Terra > Ketkat > You (if Terra flips scum) > Pirate Bae
I'm removing Fran and CeeCee from the equation due to mess, but Fran could be in there too.