Price down incoming. BELIEVE.
Be that as it may, I'm pretty sure if there is no supply problem the ratio of PS4 Pro to base PS4 must be much lower in japan.
Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Be that as it may, I'm pretty sure if there is no supply problem the ratio of PS4 Pro to base PS4 must be much lower in japan.
We already know that Famitsu estimates are often very, very wrong. I could see a much higher digital adoption rate for a game like Splatoon
You work (or drink) until the last train, or if you miss it you work until the first train go home take a shower and nap and come back in during rush.
TBF that's because there's very few large selling third party games in Japan and they're almost all in decline.
That was 10 weeks ago. And a game doesn't increase the baseline unlike a price cut.
Ni no Kuni was never that.
It bombed twice before already.
OP
OP
Splatoon 2 LTD shipments (including digital) in Japan are over 2,5m by now. They were 2,21m up to December 31.
Yeah I'm kind of with you on this one. For a few weeks the argument against the PS4 being supply constraint was "Famitsu would report it" and now it turns out they literally did last week? "PS4 situation is getting slightly better" still implies there is a problem, and it could have continued this week.
I don't know why people are so sure there isn't any problem with the PS4 at the moment. This week's drop doesn't look natural at all, it's way too steep. Well maybe it is, but it should definitely raise some eyebrows at the very least. When the Switch was supply constrained people on this thread were on top of it. To see a damning Famitsu report from last week slip through the cracks like that means I'm gonna wait and see before acting like it's a sure thing that the PS4 is just doing this badly for no particular reason.
Monster Hunter isn't a matter of "when" for Switch. lol It did well in Japan for a home console game and the overseas sales are huge. Capcom was probably never this uninterested in a Nintendo portable like they must be now with the Switch.
Seriously, this is non-sense. Some stores may not have the system, but it's pretty much available for people who want it to buy online or go to another store. A big drop was pretty much expected this week and the PS4 sales were never really good to begin with. The fact that we even have to talk about Japan having not much interest in a home console is bizarre.
Are you seriously compariing Switch being out of stock even from online retailers and having the lotteries to PS4's sales now?
Seriously, this is non-sense. Some stores may not have the system, but it's pretty much available for people who want it to buy online or go to another store. A big drop was pretty much expected this week and the PS4 sales were never really good to begin with. The fact that we even have to talk about Japan having not much interest in a home console is bizarre.
And considering this is still early, the further we into summer, those drop would be even more brutal each week.
Well damn. Does no one in the country think that this is an issue that needs to be tackled?
Capcom even managed to miss the DS gold rush.
Trying to predict Capcom's moves is, one way or another, impossible. Apart from the fact that it includes a lot of ports.
SWITCH GAMES, Ranking Sales, Japan, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08)
Media-Create: 47 games
01 - Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 2.213.576 (over 2,2m)
02 - Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) (2017.10.27) - 1.684.107
03 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) (2017.04.28) - 1.460.835
04 - The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) (2017.03.03) - 947.541
05 - 1-2-Switch (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} – 427.721
06 - Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} - 392.413 (+1)
07 - ARMS (Nintendo) (2017.06.16) – 379.929
08 - Pokken Tournament DX (Pokemon Co.) (2017.09.22) - 222.781
09 - Monster Hunter Double Cross: Nintendo Switch Ver. (Capcom) (2017.08.25) - 214.492
10 - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (Nintendo) (2017.12.01) - 181.254
11 - Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} - 167.333
12 - Super Bomberman R (Konami) (2017.03.03) – 145.029
13 - Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch (Bandai Namco Games) (2017.09.07) – 141.100
14 - FIFA 18 (Electronic Arts) (2017.09.29) - 78.169
15 - Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei Tecmo) (2017.09.28) – 53.531
16 - Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (Nippon Columbia) (2017.12.07) - 47.989
17 - Snipperclips Plus (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} - 47.124
18 - Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch (Square Enix) (2017.03.03) – 41.419
19 - Seiken Densetsu Collection (Square Enix) (2017.06.01) – 37.728
20 - Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (Koei Tecmo) {2018.03.22} - 37.338 (+1)
21 - Dragon Quest Builders (Square Enix) {2018.03.01} - 35.116
22 - Attack on Titan 2 (Koei Tecmo) {2018.03.15} - 30.194
23 - Bayonetta 2 (Nintendo) {2018.02.17} - 30.097 (11.694 Climax Edition)
24 - One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 - Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.12.21} - 23.014
25 - Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (Capcom) (2017.05.26) – 21.139
26 - The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda Softworks) {2018.02.01} - 19.547
27 - Dragon Quest X: 5000-nen no Harukanaru Kokyou e Online (Square Enix) (2017.11.16) - 18.444
28 - Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) (2017.03.03) - 17.323
29 - PriPara All Idol Perfect Stage! (Takara Tomy) {2018.03.22} - 12.426
30 - Bayonetta - Climax Edition (Nintendo) {2018.02.17} - 11.694
31 - Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star (Marvelous) (2017.07.20) - 10.247
32 - Dragon Quest X: All in One Package (Square Enix) (2017.09.21) - 9.482
33 - Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker (Square Enix) (2017.04.20) - 7.447
34 - Resident Evil: Revelations Collection (Capcom) (2017.11.30) - 6.540
35 - Lost Sphear (Square Enix) (2017.10.12) - 5.770
36 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi (Koei Tecmo) (2017.11.30) - 5.636
37 - LEGO City Undercover (Warner Entertainment Japan) (2017.06.29) - 5.351
38 - I am Setsuna (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} - 4.753
39 - Sonic Forces (Sega) (2017.11.09) - 4.686
40 - One Piece: Unlimited World Red – Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco Games) (2017.08.24) - 4.652
41 - Nights of Azure 2: Bride of the New Moon (Koei Tecmo) (2017.08.31) - 4.463
42 - Winning Post 8 2018 (Koei Tecmo) {2018.03.15} - 3.745
43 - Disgaea 5 Complete (Nippon Ichi Software) {2017.03.03} - 3.477
44 - Cars 3: Driven to Win (Warner Entertainment Japan) (2017.07.20) - 3.220
45 - NBA 2K18 (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (2017.10.17) - 2.689
46 - Champion Jockey Special (Koei Tecmo) (2017.09.14) - 2.626
47 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit (Koei Tecmo) {2017.03.03} - 1.400
SWITCH GAMES, Ranking Sales, Japan, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/6434314/
Media-Create: 47 games
01 - Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} - 2.213.576 (over 2,2m)
02 - Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) (2017.10.27) - 1.684.107
03 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) (2017.04.28) - 1.460.835
04 - The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) (2017.03.03) - 947.541
05 - 1-2-Switch (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} – 427.721
06 - Kirby Star Allies (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} - 392.413 (+1)
07 - ARMS (Nintendo) (2017.06.16) – 379.929
08 - Pokken Tournament DX (Pokemon Co.) (2017.09.22) - 222.781
09 - Monster Hunter Double Cross: Nintendo Switch Ver. (Capcom) (2017.08.25) - 214.492
10 - Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (Nintendo) (2017.12.01) - 181.254
11 - Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} - 167.333
12 - Super Bomberman R (Konami) (2017.03.03) – 145.029
13 - Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch (Bandai Namco Games) (2017.09.07) – 141.100
14 - FIFA 18 (Electronic Arts) (2017.09.29) - 78.169
15 - Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei Tecmo) (2017.09.28) – 53.531
16 - Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (Nippon Columbia) (2017.12.07) - 47.989
17 - Snipperclips Plus (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} - 47.124
18 - Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch (Square Enix) (2017.03.03) – 41.419
19 - Seiken Densetsu Collection (Square Enix) (2017.06.01) – 37.728
20 - Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (Koei Tecmo) {2018.03.22} - 37.338 (+1)
21 - Dragon Quest Builders (Square Enix) {2018.03.01} - 35.116
22 - Attack on Titan 2 (Koei Tecmo) {2018.03.15} - 30.194
23 - Bayonetta 2 (Nintendo) {2018.02.17} - 30.097 (11.694 Climax Edition)
24 - One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 - Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.12.21} - 23.014
25 - Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (Capcom) (2017.05.26) – 21.139
26 - The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda Softworks) {2018.02.01} - 19.547
27 - Dragon Quest X: 5000-nen no Harukanaru Kokyou e Online (Square Enix) (2017.11.16) - 18.444
28 - Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) (2017.03.03) - 17.323
29 - PriPara All Idol Perfect Stage! (Takara Tomy) {2018.03.22} - 12.426
30 - Bayonetta - Climax Edition (Nintendo) {2018.02.17} - 11.694
31 - Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star (Marvelous) (2017.07.20) - 10.247
32 - Dragon Quest X: All in One Package (Square Enix) (2017.09.21) - 9.482
33 - Minna de Wai Wai! Spelunker (Square Enix) (2017.04.20) - 7.447
34 - Resident Evil: Revelations Collection (Capcom) (2017.11.30) - 6.540
35 - Lost Sphear (Square Enix) (2017.10.12) - 5.770
36 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi (Koei Tecmo) (2017.11.30) - 5.636
37 - LEGO City Undercover (Warner Entertainment Japan) (2017.06.29) - 5.351
38 - I am Setsuna (Square Enix) {2017.03.03} - 4.753
39 - Sonic Forces (Sega) (2017.11.09) - 4.686
40 - One Piece: Unlimited World Red – Deluxe Edition (Bandai Namco Games) (2017.08.24) - 4.652
41 - Nights of Azure 2: Bride of the New Moon (Koei Tecmo) (2017.08.31) - 4.463
42 - Winning Post 8 2018 (Koei Tecmo) {2018.03.15} - 3.745
43 - Disgaea 5 Complete (Nippon Ichi Software) {2017.03.03} - 3.477
44 - Cars 3: Driven to Win (Warner Entertainment Japan) (2017.07.20) - 3.220
45 - NBA 2K18 (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (2017.10.17) - 2.689
46 - Champion Jockey Special (Koei Tecmo) (2017.09.14) - 2.626
47 - Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit (Koei Tecmo) {2017.03.03} - 1.400
SWITCH GAMES, Ranking Sales, Japan, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01)
https://www.resetera.com/posts/6434314/
I'm saying this thread would have never missed a Famitsu report like that when the Switch was supply constrained.
Discussing the perceived PS4 shortages seems kinda pointless. It will show itself in the next few weeks that the system has reached saturation at this price point and with this software lineup.
Kirby really putting in the work, I'm surprised given this might be one of the best Kirby selling titles ever.
Shame though because as much of a Kirby fan as I am, Star Allies probably ranks among my least favorite of the games in the franchise.
Honestly most Switch games are doing amazingly, I'm actually surprised at how much a success the Switch has been, I thought the 3DS would've held on longer before being overtaken.
Shame though because as much of a Kirby fan as I am, Star Allies probably ranks among my least favorite of the games in the franchise.
Honestly most Switch games are doing amazingly, I'm actually surprised at how much a success the Switch has been, I thought the 3DS would've held on longer before being overtaken.
Then let's ask the other way around, what is there to save it in the next couple of weeks and months? I mean you must see something if you are taking the wait and see approach.
They had certain goal for this past quarter and placed production orders in line with that. Then MHW moved maybe more consoles in Japan than they thought and it takes some time to get supply in order again. I mean we have seen this before too. For example PS3 had stock issues in US during first quarter of 2010 despite not really selling that amazingly. I mean I don't even know does PS4 currently have stock issues in Japan but this would be the reason.
Do you think a new Mario Maker for switch will be as big as though games?
Remember when they chose to put their marquee franchise on the Gamecube instead of the best selling console of all time?
Even more brutal? And each week? So, you're suggesting that we'll see a negative number in summer? :)
What ?
PS4 dropped 10k, Switch dropped 4k and thats selling within the same range ?
but it can still do better. why not do the Capcom thing and sell more with little effort?
OP
OP
I mean Q4 has ended, It's been 11 weeks since MHW launched. Unless we're expecting supply shortages for most of Q1 it's kind of odd.
Here it says that supply was recovered last week, so PS4 jumped in sales.
I wonder how a Splatoon Spinoff could look like.
Maybe something strategy based ?
Nah. I can see it hit 10k the moment after Golden Week there where drop is brutal especially with no big title releasing to hold the baseline.
The shortages maybe there is some degree. However i also dont think that having tons of supply will suddenly mitigate PS4 number drop as right now, MHW effect is gone and there is no big title releasing any time soon so it is all decline time for the time being.
According to google translate, it says "slight supply recovery", indicating that it's not a full recovery. Do you recognise that when you read it (google translate obviously is often wrong when it comes to nuance)?
It's PS exclusive in Asia, so they can't port it to Switch. Before anyone complains to me: it's PS4 only in the whole Asia, no PC release and Capcom releases even Xbox One digital versions for their games in Japan - not for MHW, their biggest seller, tho.
They can do a new MonHun for Switch, but is it worth it? They have a bigger audience worldwide now to use their resources in a Switch release. Even more unlikely considering their lack of interest in the system in general.
Make a gacha idol game for mobile and see it going to the top of the iOS store forever in Japan.
It's a weird case of sense of responsibility, ikigai, pride, and not wanting to look like you are the only one slacking off. Hard to fix, I'm lucky enough to have a job at a small company that lets me complete my work from home after work hours.
Killerman91, that's possible, I'd think they'd want to get every sale they possibly can. Not shipping units seems like an odd decision, even if you did meet expectations.
The PS4's numbers are dismal, which shocks me- I expected MHW to give the system a larger, higher baseline. On the other hand, for as well as MHW itself has done (and it really has done spectacularly well, I don't think a better result could have been expected of a non-Nintendo console game in Japan), it, too, seems to be running into the inevitable wall of being a console game in a country that values portability over all else. If MHW could not give the PS4 a more sustained raise, I highly doubt any remaining game in the system's library, KH3 included, will do so.
I am curious as to how Abriael feels about them, because he was insistent that the PS4 has as much mass market cachet in Japan as it is possible to have thanks to games like MHW and KH3 and that the Switch won't overtake it for the remainder of this generation as a result.
I am curious as to how Abriael feels about them, because he was insistent that the PS4 has as much mass market cachet in Japan as it is possible to have thanks to games like MHW and KH3 and that the Switch won't overtake it for the remainder of this generation as a result.
Older post regarding Splatoon 2 digital estimates:
Splatoon 2 eShop Ranking since release:
Code:
July 20th to Aug 2nd - 1st Place
Aug 3rd to Aug 9th - 2nd Place
Aug 17th to Aug 23rd - 5th Place
Aug 24th to Sept 6th - 3rd Place
Sept 7th to Sept 13th - 7th Place
Sept 14th to Sept 20th - 10th Place
Sept 21st to Sept 27th - 7th Place
Sept 26th to Oct 10th - 5th Place
Oct 10th to Oct 31st - 3rd Place
Oct 31st to Nov 14th - 4th Place
Nov 7th to Nov 21st - 6th Place
Nov 23rd to Dec 6th - 7th Place
Dec 7th to Dec 13th - 5th Place
Dec 14th to Dec 20th - 3rd Place
Dec 21st to Dec 27th - 4th Place
Dec 28th to Jan 3rd - 5th Place
Jan 3rd to Jan 9th - 5th Place
Jan 9th to Jan 15th - 5th Place
Jan 15th to Jan 26th - 5th Place
Jan 26th to Feb 6 - 7th Place
Feb 6th to Feb 20th - 11th Place
Feb 20th to Mar 6th - 8th Place
Mar 6th to Mar 20th - 5th Place
Mar 20th to April 3rd - 7th PlaceIn Japan for the end of September we have the following numbers from the official trackers:
Splatoon 2 – 1,19M
Switch - 1.78M
While Nintendo themselves provided a much higher figure for Splatoon 2 for the period ending in 10/1/17:
Splatoon 2 - 1.56M
Difference - 370K
According to Nintendo Splatoon 2 had an attach rate of around 60% by the end of the year in Japan. While according to M-C figures at the time Splatoon 2 had 53% attach rate and 51% according to Famitsu. So in order for Nintendo to be correct Splatoon 2 digital sales for 2017 would have to be between 250-300K.
Personally I think that 15% digital seems realistic for Splatoon 2, so around 332K. I think between 300-350K seems more realistic than what Famitsu Estimates give.
Splatoon SRPG made by the same people that did Mario + Rabbids O_O
or maybe an Idol Manager game in which you are in charge to make the next Squid Sister/Off the Hook
Team based squad shooter. Think Metroid Federation Force but with Splatoon's movement and setting.
Nice estimates.
Imo 3DS will not be down quite as much as people seem to think, simply because it will still be a very nice(and even cheaper) holiday gift.
Switch making up that 1.5 M drop is purely a question of Stock it seems.
It will be up before Christmas by a substantial number already, simply because may-october will not be supply constrained which is heavily way last year.
Then its all about shipping like mad for Christmas.
Also, not meant as a joke, will XB1 being up yoy by 100+% affect the total numbers in the end ?
For a Splatoon spin-off, I can only think in a Rhythm game ala Persona5: Dancing.
But I don't know if the Squid songs are really palatable to certain ears.
But I don't know if the Squid songs are really palatable to certain ears.
Basically you are right but "兆し" means more ambiguous bright future.
How did you expect MHW to give PS4 a higher baseline? We are not talking about Splatoon or Yokai Watch 1, Monster Hunter was an already big franchise and had a super big launch, of course PS4 after Monster Hunter World is back to normal. It did way better than expect to be honest.
I see. Thank for the info.
Anyway, I guess the silver lining is that at least one other console is doing relatively well. I do wonder if Sony will try something different with the form factor of the PS5 to try to recapture the Japanese market.