That's the difference between two thirds and a half. Just say two thirds. It's a common designation almost as much as a half.
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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2018 (Jan 08 - Jan 14)
- Thread starter Chris1964
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PC port being almost 1 year late means they can't charge full price for it.
That will affect the sales and bottom line.
MHW will probably have really good legs honestly. With its DLC model it shouldn't be a big issue reatining interest. Still a Capcom game though so its going to crater in price like 3 months after launch.
Dark Souls also isn't the end all be all. MHW can surpass the best selling Souls game. It already will have over a million advantage in Japan.
Dark Souls also isn't the end all be all. MHW can surpass the best selling Souls game. It already will have over a million advantage in Japan.
I did say 'about'. If about is not strong enough, forgive me, I'm not a native speaker.
I don't think a price comparison between 3DS and PS4 games is necessary. The games are priced in relation to platform norms. I don't think someone interested in DQ11 on PS4 would buy the 3DS version because its cheaper.
Console and Handheld game prices aren't some mystery. 4 years into the PS4s life and like 6 years into the 3DSs I dont think buying base cares.
Console and Handheld game prices aren't some mystery. 4 years into the PS4s life and like 6 years into the 3DSs I dont think buying base cares.
I mean focusing on revenue with single title like MH: W is not maybe that enlightening but as a whole you could say that revenue based reporting would tell better story of the performance of games. There is a reason why NPD moved from unit based reporting to revenue based reporting. This is of course very extreme example but Angry Birds selling 300 million units with price tag of one dollar doesn't make it more successful than GTA V that has sold 80 million units with average selling price somewhere between $40-60.
That's exactly two thirds rounded down to the nearest percentage. Seriously just use that.
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It definitely matters to parents, and Dragon Quest sells a lot to kids.
I hate when people do this.
I hope we can take MHW sales for what they trully are, for better or for worse. No spins please.
For future reference:
I think a new gen should sell 4 million copies in Japan, but it's not realistic to expect MHW to do that, as it's a console release. So, with lowered expectations, I think 2 million LTD would be good for what it is, and above what was expected. Short of 2 million is expected, and close to or below 1.5 million would be a failure.
As for worldwide:
Let's bet on 1.8 million LTD for MHW in Japan, at max. So to MATCH past 3DS games, MHW would have to sell about 2.4 million in the west. For context, MH4U and MHX sold about 1 million copies each in the west.
Of course, the goal with MHW is not to match the performance of past games, but SURPASS them. MHW costs more, there's a lot more marketing muscle behind it (especially in the west), it's on multiple platforms, etc. They want the franchise to grow, they want new fans, they want more sales.
So to have some sort of substantial growth, this is what Capcom should realistically be looking for:
Japan: 1.8 million
West: 3.4 million
Total: 5.2 million (1 million more than 3DS games)
Good luck giri giri.
These are my final thoughts and predictions.
Let the
like principate said, 2/3rd is much better to use than half for the price difference
Retail price doesn't say much per se. Margins are much more important and these are less dependent on the final price.
We needed those 2k posts to keep the streak going and time was running out.
Eh, DQ has been on consoles at full console price too. If you wanted the game on PS4 you wouldn't be discoursged by the price. If you were legitimately choosing between the PS4 and the 3DS versions price wouldn't be the swaying factor. The PS4s userbase is quite a bit older than the 3DS on average.
3DS has like 4x the install base as PS4. It will have more kids in its ecosystem than PS4 has entire systems sold.
I dont see price being a factor here. Its not some wow moment that PS4 games cost more than 3DS games
But I'm not ignoring that the JP version will have smaller legs.
You however seem to be ignoring that I'm talking about 2m in 3 days world wide. Yes, even if it'll top out at 2m in Japan, it'll be in the running for best selling in the series with typical legs elsewhere.
I think his major problem with your argument is that you haven't really made a compelling case that "typical legs" is a thing that exists. Legs are extremely different for all sorts of games depending on all sorts of factors even on the same platform.
If you have data which shows certain expected trends from opening sales to legs then please share it.
No, his counter argument rests on using JRPGs, which typically are far more front loaded in the west, to counter my speculation.
His argument would have merit if I didn't outline that my post was speculation based on a variety of factors, that probably won't even happen (2m in 3 days WW).
However, to answer you question, typical legs is a thing that exists. Look at the UK, the higher the opening, the larger the second week drop. That just makes intuitive sense. And a lot of titles tend to drop in their second week by about 60-70%.
But you can ignore all of that and susbtitute out the wording to look at what I'm actually saying. If MHW opens at 2 million in 3 days, and has a drop, which may or may not be typical, but let's say is about 60-70% in UK and similar percentages in other markets, then... it'll be on track to be one of the best selling in the series, if not the best post PC.
What is standard AAA legs even mean? Is it CoD? Is it NBA? Is it Battlefield? Is it Horizon? Is it FF15? Is it Assassin's Creed?
Like what does that even imply? I'm not even doubting MHW will be the best selling in the series. It will for sure. But standard AAA legs doesn't inform me of anything. That statement has nothing tangible to it.
If its meant to be a simple analogy then the way to make it is explain it to someone with no concept of sales. Does that mean double first month? Top 20 in revenue for 6 months?
What qualifies that statement?
Like what does that even imply? I'm not even doubting MHW will be the best selling in the series. It will for sure. But standard AAA legs doesn't inform me of anything. That statement has nothing tangible to it.
If its meant to be a simple analogy then the way to make it is explain it to someone with no concept of sales. Does that mean double first month? Top 20 in revenue for 6 months?
What qualifies that statement?
Someone is going to come along and dig up the thread from the old site when MH was announced for the DS. Not me, though.
idk, MHW smells like an overseas hit.
I had my doubts, but it seems the reaction has been quite great.
I had my doubts, but it seems the reaction has been quite great.
Let's stop with this stupid Monster Hunter talk and celebrate a truly transformational announcement:
https://gematsu.com/2018/01/hifumi-katou-supervised-hifumins-shogi-dojo-announced-switch
https://gematsu.com/2018/01/hifumi-katou-supervised-hifumins-shogi-dojo-announced-switch
you'd be wrong because the 3DS sold better than the PS4 version?
I'm going to link this post every time someone says a standard drop happened in the UK pal charts thread. We really need to stop using this terminology in those threads.
Welllll..I mean the 3DS game still sold more than the PS4 version first of all.
Second, DQ is not a local multiplayer portable franchise.
Third, and I know i'm trying to stay out of these discussions, but if you're trying to make an argument why it doesn't make business sense for Capcom to develop a Switch Monster Hunter game you are really really over thinking things.
That wasn't my point though. Just that a Switch version of MH will never be as big as the 3DS because there's a prettier version out there that'll suck some energy out of it. Which is what happened to the DQ, where the PS4 version got really close despite not being portable and with a much lower install base.
I get disagreeing with my point, but I could do without the drive by post trying to ridicule it without any arguments.
I said it put them in an awkward and difficult spot, not that they shouldn't do it...
The reason they moved to revenue rather than units was to avoid scaring investors away from the market completely by looking at the sharp decline in absolute units over the last few years, not because they just woke up and figured out revenue is actually much more useful one day.
And what makes Angry Birds more successful than GTAV is Angry Birds 300 million sales on a development budget of less than $1 million, versus GTAVs 80 million sales on a development budget of more than $200 million.
"Revenue" is somewhat meaningless without knowing associated costs.
You can have a business outselling everyone else by undercutting everyone else, which would give you huge revenue and zero profit. You won't be in that business very long.
Monster Hunter is primarily a local multiplayer, portable franchise in Japan. Dragon Quest is not.
And while I absolutely concede that a hypothetical MH Switch won't look as good as World, it will still look far better than any portable Monster Hunter has looked before and won't exactly look like a 3DS game.
And it'll be Capcom's fault for fracturing their fanbase to begin with. But in line with all of Capcom's other bad decisions this generation.
Well when someone says standard drop from week 1 -> week 2 I understand that they are referencing about 70% reduction. But that's established because we get that data every week so you could chart it. But beyond week 1 to week 2 I don't know how anyone could know what a standard drop looks like on most games in the UK.
Its super dependent on the game and genre and we dont get enough data to quantify it. Same with the US. Japan we have tons of data so its easy to say "JRPGs have shit legs generally." Its easy to say casual family focused games dont really matter in terms of week 1 sales. It's easy to say
Btw, I missed your post above mine. When I made this post. That was what I was looking for. But yeah, take NBA in the US for example. I have no idea what a standard AAA drop looks for that franchise because we have no idea how many units it burns through every month.
And then I start in on the talk and make things worse. Bad schuelma bad.
I honestly believe we need that MHW abscess to be ripped so that we can have more rational and interesting discussions in MC threads. It will be a bad 2-3 weeks with the usual "the king has returned" drive-bys but ol will be fine.
The only bad thing ks that since we won't get numbers outside of Japan (except for shipped ones) speculation and selective reading will be rampant for a while
The discussion on how we should quantify the performance of AAA titles is actually really interesting imo. I just think that Japan is the only market we get enough data to make more bold assumptions.
We don't even know how many units the top 10 games in the US moved in December, the biggest month of the year. It makes it hard to say anything.
With MS announcing all their titles on game pass day 1 it even further skews things. Not in Japan obviously but can you even comment on unit sales when you know a healthy portion of the userbase doesnt even buy games traditionally anymore?
We don't even know how many units the top 10 games in the US moved in December, the biggest month of the year. It makes it hard to say anything.
With MS announcing all their titles on game pass day 1 it even further skews things. Not in Japan obviously but can you even comment on unit sales when you know a healthy portion of the userbase doesnt even buy games traditionally anymore?
I don't think it's fracturing if two games on different platforms sell more than a game on a single platform.
It's expanding the fanbase.
DQXI PS4 overperformed while DQXI 3DS underperformed but a difference of 400.000 is not the definition of being "really close".
I get your idea but the power and graphical gap between the ps4 and 3ds games are much different than between the switch and the ps4.Take DQXI for example,DQXI on 3ds looked like a totally different game than the ps4 version while the switch version will also be an UE4 powered DQXI game
I remain skeptical that MHW will attract any sizable number of players in the west, and I don't think it wlll make up for their lost Japanese audience. This is all a moneyhat play by Sony to bolster their sales and Capcom being desperate enough to go along. When the dust settles, I think this will all end up leaving Capcom and the MH franchise in a weaker position.
In Japan? I don't see that happening unless they add some new content to sweeten the deal. Even then, it would take quite a climb to reach the 3DS total.
We don't know, as Capcom refused to give their expectations for it. They have only ever said that they expect growth overseas, hence why that has dominated the conversation even in these Japan focused threads.
DQIX is the best-selling DQ despite DQVIII raising the production values bar to a level DQIX couldn't even dream of reaching. Isn't using Dragon Quest as an example actually contradicting your claim that a new Switch MH would be underwhelming due to it not looking as good as MHW?
I mean, this past holiday should have been example enough on how badly Japanese 3rd parties misread the situation. Hell the whole year in fact when you look at how lopsided the software sales are.
There's no spinning results of this magnitude as anything other than a gross miscalculation. And as this is a sales thread, I see no reason why pointing this out should be considered beyond the scope of discussion or in need of "holding our horses".
As I've noted, watching Splatoon grow into a franchise that will now eclipse the next mainline MH *and* most likely any thereafter (because, I do not believe the >2mil people who are not going to buy World are just going to sit around playing the long game, and that new kids are completely going to grow up with Splatoon rather than MH for >3 years) is a sight to behold. It shows just how well Splatoon has been handled in Japan while the market melts away around it.
Hell, the most recent Mario is now going to be a bigger title in Japan than the most recent mainline MH. Had you told me this a little under a year ago, I'd have probably laughed.
All of these things offer perspective. Now, obviously, most of this perspective is on Capcom since only Capcom decided to lose 2mil sales in their domestic market in pursuit of finding them elsewhere. But the general thread and original sentence that started all of this applies to a lot more than just Capcom.
Trying to brush all of this under the rug as "oh its only been a year" is simply excusing what has torpedoed this market for the past decade. But, oh, its just been a decade. They'll figure it out eventually, I guess.
You also have the visually considerably underwhelming DQ11 beating the PS4 version by a long shot.
I don't see the Switch version of DQXI doing amazingly well after being so late.
Maybe if they include all "three" versions in one package it'll get a ton of double dips?
As for Mh, I don't think fans would be against returning to the segmented map and downgraded assets which would help the game run on Switch. Other than that, it's basically just MH as it's always been.
Maybe if they include all "three" versions in one package it'll get a ton of double dips?
As for Mh, I don't think fans would be against returning to the segmented map and downgraded assets which would help the game run on Switch. Other than that, it's basically just MH as it's always been.
Switch is the hot platform right now. A portable modern DQXI is going to be huge.
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