Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2017 (Oct 16 - Oct 22)

[Nocturnal]

I love me a good tweet storm

 

[hibikase]

[N64] Super mario 64
First week: 162.111
Hardware: 159.943

Click to shrink...

What about Pilotwings 64?

 

[silpheed-mcd]

What about Pilotwings 64?

Click to shrink...

[N64] Pilotwings 64 (first week): 32.219



[N64] Saikyou Habu Shogi: 9.519

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

I am reading 5 juuman (まんじゅう5個) on the blog.

It might mean 500k

Click to shrink...

 

[BishopLamont]

500k for mario would definitely include bundles, 400k sounds more likely without bundles

 

[schuelma]

500K still seems too high. But what do I know. Would be a great result and would likely mean much more hardware than we thought.

 

[hiska-kun]

500k seems only possible with huge hardware increase and mostly bundled.

 

[v_iHuGi]

500k seems only possible with huge hardware increase and mostly bundled.

Click to shrink...

500K would be amazing!

 

[Rainrir]

I can kind of get the "will" (it won't if it's not used in marketing and if people remember that both franchises are different, smt being a lot darker and harder) , but when did the "has" happened exactly?

Click to shrink...

Tales from his ass as usual.

 

[HPH]

500k would be pretty crazy for Mario Odyssey. Now I'm really intrigued by the Switch hardware numbers tomorrow.

 

[hibikase]

I think it's definitely possible for Odyssey to reach 500k considering how there is a hardware bundle at its launch.

I mean looking back, was there ever another 3D Mario where that was also the case? The only bundles I can think of came later.

 

[Deleted member 1413]

In 3 Days Odyssey shifted 2M units.
May be able to get the number from there?

Didn't we get a Switch's regional sales percentage number in yesterday's report?

 

[Chris1964]

500k, if that's really what the blog is hinting, is far from an expected result and means a very big amount of bundles and standalone copies.

So far sinobi has said Odyssey launch has exceeded his expectations and there are some stores with stock problems.

 

[Skittzo]

I love me a good tweet storm

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I saw his tweet storm (https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/925384004945174530), and I'm a bit confused why he's comparing attach rates through specific periods rather than overall attach rates. The overall attach rate is currently 3.6 (27.58 SW / 7.63 HW) which is what Nintendo is predicting for the FY. Even if it's 4.5 for the past two quarters that hasn't drastically affected the overall attach rate. If it's 4.5 for the next 2 quarters it could still wind up somewhere as low as 3.8 or so, which is still fairly close to their prediction.

Just seems to be a weird comparison to make.

 

[Deleted member 2793]

What about Pilotwings 64?

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Everything 64 "bombed" in Japan. It got outsold by the Sega Saturn.

 

[Rainrir]

I saw his tweet storm (https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/925384004945174530), and I'm a bit confused why he's comparing attach rates through specific periods rather than overall attach rates. The overall attach rate is currently 3.6 (27.58 SW / 7.63 HW) which is what Nintendo is predicting for the FY. Even if it's 4.5 for the past two quarters that hasn't drastically affected the overall attach rate. If it's 4.5 for the next 2 quarters it could still wind up somewhere as low as 3.8 or so, which is still fairly close to their prediction.

Just seems to be a weird comparison to make.

Click to shrink...

Actually he has conceeded that Handheld Attach Rates can fall over time because a family/group can buy multiple devices but shares games.

He realized it when someone in his feed mentioned how his family only own one copy of each game, but both the wife and husband has their own Switch.

This will obviously be redundant for mulyiplayer game which all need their own cart/disc/and, but it is definitely true for SP games.

This is why Mon Hun sells alot, after all.

 

[Skittzo]

Actually he has conceeded that Handheld Attach Rates can fall because a family buys multiple devices but shares games.

This will obviously be redundant for mulyiplayer game which all need their own cart/disc/and, but it is definitely true for SP games.

This is why Mon Hun sells alot, after all.

Click to shrink...

Excellent point, yeah. One other thing that bothers me regarding attach rates is whether or not they include digital-only sales. We know Nintendo hasn't given out digital-only unit sales yet, but are Sony's numbers including those? If so that comparison he's trying to make looks even more off.

Nintendo really needs to start doing that, especially when there are so few retail games out compared to digital-only.

 

[DarkDetective]

In 3 Days Odyssey shifted 2M units.
May be able to get the number from there?

Didn't we get a Switch's regional sales percentage number in yesterday's report?

Click to shrink...

I can't check it fast, but we know the MC/Famitsu numbers, which is around 1.8M for the end of September. That's about 25% of all Switch units sold. Assuming that SMO sold equally well in all regions, that would indeed suggest 500k in Japan, as the game sold 2M worldwide within the first three days. But that assumption wasn't true in the past.

 

[Deleted member 1413]

I can't check it fast, but we know the MC/Famitsu numbers, which is around 1.8M for the end of September. That's about 25% of all Switch units sold. Assuming that SMO sold equally well in all regions, that would indeed suggest 500k in Japan, as the game sold 2M worldwide within the first three days. But that assumption wasn't true in the past.

Click to shrink...

Would be interesting to look at. Bundles should help, but it's up to Nintendo to make enough of them.

I wonder how much they make per bundle since it's actially above MSRP in the West since it includes a carrying case.

 

[CeroMiedo]

Is it just me or we really lost some pages?I remember we were at page 27

 

[Nirolak]

Is it just me or we really lost some pages?I remember we were at page 27

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The forum switched to 100 posts per page. It was 50 posts per page.

 

[Deleted member 1413]

Is it just me or we really lost some pages?I remember we were at page 27

Click to shrink...

Yeah, it seems there are now 100 posts per page?

 

[djinnEXE]

100 post is nice. Could have given us a warning though. Was confused when I suddenly skipped to the end after clicking next in a thread just now.

 

[BishopLamont]

thank god we dont have the same mods as previous forum

not every good poster is a good mod

i hope the 50/100 posts/page is an option, i actually prefer 50 posts after getting used to it for so long

 

[CeroMiedo]

The forum switched to 100 posts per page. It was 50 posts per page.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, it seems there are now 100 posts per page?

Click to shrink...

ah thanks guys,no wonder the page is longer

 

[Hero of Legend]

Speaking of forum improvements, can we get our own threads highlighted again? Makes it easier to find, I have to depend on the watched eyes on the right side to find ones I've made.

 

[fiendcode]

If we're begging for improvements how about a dark theme?

 

[Rainrir]

Wrong thread guys -_-

 

[Titik]

Switch shipments in the USA has been absolutely insane in the last few days since SMO launch. I've been getting nonstop notifications from those stock sites.

Wont be surprised if Japan shipments are just as intense.

 

[skullwaker]

500k would be insane for Odyssey. Way above my prediction, which I already thought would be an impressive result.

 

[hibikase]

At this point I think it's safe to say that the Switch will hit 10 million worldwide before the end of the year. The holiday season will make it reach that for sure. The only real obstacle is supply limits.

 

[Lelouch0612]

I think that they are going to cross 10 millions in a week or two. Before Black Friday and before the holiday rush which is totally insane.

 

[schuelma]

At this point I think it's safe to say that the Switch will hit 10 million worldwide before the end of the year. The holiday season will make it reach that for sure. The only real obstacle is supply limits.

Click to shrink...

It will be well above IMO. People have forgotten how insane sales can be for a hot Nintendo system during the holidays.

 

[Titik]

Seems like we got those lost pages back? Lol

 

[Principate]

Actually he has conceeded that Handheld Attach Rates can fall over time because a family/group can buy multiple devices but shares games.

He realized it when someone in his feed mentioned how his family only own one copy of each game, but both the wife and husband has their own Switch.

This will obviously be redundant for mulyiplayer game which all need their own cart/disc/and, but it is definitely true for SP games.

This is why Mon Hun sells alot, after all.

Click to shrink...

I mean Nintendo has never attempted to curb this beyond now. In fact they actively encouraged it with the local download and play.

 

[Edge_Maverick]

500k for Mario? Itprintsmoney.gif

 

[RailWays]

500k for Mario would be bonkers
My poor prediction would be ground to dust

 

[Deleted member 1413]

Only two people predicted 500k or above so that would be pretty nuts. I'm guessing it's bellow 500k overall in Japan but pretty close

 

[datschge]

Everything 64 "bombed" in Japan. It got outsold by the Sega Saturn.

Click to shrink...

Saturn is Sega's most successful console in Japan.

 

[silpheed-mcd]

Only two people predicted 500k or above so that would be pretty nuts. I'm guessing it's bellow 500k overall in Japan but pretty close

Click to shrink...

A little more ^^


PREDICTIONS (CLOSED): Switch hardware sales and Super Mario Odyssey sales, Japan, Oct 23 - Oct 29, 2017

BrokenJohnCena (CeroMiedo): 150k (Switch) - 600k (SMO)
OfficerRaichu15: 110k - 380k
TheLegendaryN: ~100k - 280k (rectified: DarkDetective ~150k - 420k)
Chris1964: ~ 150k - ~340k
noshten (Nocturnal): 150k - 450k - Splatoon 90k - MK8D 35k - BOTW 20k
Salvadora: - ? - 300k to 400k
The James: 230k - 500k
Zedark: 200k - 450k
Skullwaker: 150k - 350k
Gradivus: 140k - 400k
sinonobu: 160k - 360k (rectified: 399,99k :p )
Heartskips: 100k - 300k
sphinx: ~125k - 265k
VLQ: 94k - 315k
Jon Carter: 160k - 320k
Bass260: 135k - 285k
Lizardus: 170k - 400k
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule: 80k - ?
Orgen: +125k - +400k
ggx2ac: 146k - 512k (rectified: 146k - 469k)
Fukuzatsu: 95k - 350k
rzmunch: 150k - 450k
Nintendojitsu: 150k - 350k
Zelmardonpoktendo: 96k - 412k
RailWays: 110k - 380k
Qubie: 135k - 350k
xICHIGOx: 148k - 325k
Waddles the Piggu: 128k - 370k
Nightbird: 500k (drunken :p) - 420k
J-Shy: 140k - 390k
Cartridge Games: 130k - 400k
Yeshua: 150k - 420k
KuwabaraTheman: 137k - 441k
Joxer: 130k - 420k
Arynio: 139k - 391k
LordKano: 142k - 460k
Heartskips: 100k - 280k
Xequalsy: 100k - 300k
Hero: 100/125k - 150/200k
jawbreaker: 110k - 350k
Phantom Thief: 120k - 390k
Muu: 150k - 450k
metalslimer: 110k - 345k
Fularu: 150k - 430k
pokéfan: 141k - 404k
RPGamer92: 140k - 820k
byDoS: 90k - 120k
VOltg: 100k - 400k
Edigar: 100k - 400k
Lelouch0612: 150k - 390k
CaviarMeths: 128k - 550k
schuelma: 125k - 375k
Nathan.exe: 125k - 430k
The Last One: 110k - 450k
UmbriaPauly: 111k - 333k

Brewster123: 150k - 450k
FantasyZone: 125k - 285k
Edge_Maverick: 118k - 423k
Piston: 111k - 423k
Blue Ranger: 90k - 280k
Jin: 133k - 300k
Cantaim: 130k - 328k
DanTheMan: 125k - 425k
Sire Yoshi: 220k - 500k
ILikeFeet: 110k - 310k
rAndom: 110k - 500k
MattB: 125k - 390k
argonsmash: 95k - 290k
Soph: 97k - 322k
Heidir: 199k - 449k
WhiskerFrisker: 101k - 366k
Cefalopop: 115k - 380k
SpaceComboyJ: 125k - 330k
MANUELF: 150k - 600k
Deku: 105k - 365k
zroid: 123k - 321k
NiteJohn: 115k - 350k
Muzy: 150k - 450k
Lock: ? - 400k



SWITCH:
<100k: 8
100/149k: 48
(100k/124k: 22 , 125k/149k: 26)
150/199k: 16
200k and more: 4

SMO:
<200k: 2
200/299k: 6
300/399,99k: 34
(300/349k: 14 , 350/399,99k: 20)
400/499k: 29
500/599k: 4
600k and more: 3

 

[Bruno MB]

PREDICTION LEAGUE NOVEMBER 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Oct 30 to Nov 26):

[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey [2nd month] (28 days) - 375,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 315,000
[PS4] Call of Duty: WWII (24 days) - 145,000
[PS4] Star Wars Battlefront II (10 days) - 85,000
[3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon (10 days) - 1,600,000

 

[silpheed-mcd]

GEO's Ranking pre-orders, Oct 23 - Oct 29

About ranking:
- NEW is the title that was not ranked in within last ranking.
- Games close to release date and games for which reservation reception has ended in Geo are not published in the ranking
- The ranking of the title is ranking by the total number including other models and bonus version.
- Hard order of multi titles is in order of hard release date.





01/03 [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun - November 07
01/03 [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon - November 07
02/02 [PS4] Star Wars BattleFront 2 - November 17
03/04 [PS4] Yakuza Kiwami 2 - December 07
04/07 [PS4] Need for speed payback - November 10
05/08 [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - January 26
06/16 [NSW] Dragon Quest X 5000: Year Journey to a Faraway Hometown - November 16
06/16 [PS4] Dragon Quest X 5000: Year Journey to a Faraway Hometown - November 16
06/16 [WiU] Dragon Quest X 5000: Year Journey to a Faraway Hometown - November 16
07/10 [3DS] Yokai Busters 2 Hihou Densetsu Banbaraja Sword - December 07
07/10 [3DS] Yokai Busters 2 Hihou Densetsu Banbaraja Magnum - December 07
08/11 [PS4] Earth Defense Force 5 - December 07
09/13 [NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi - November 30
09/13 [PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi - November 30
10/14 [3DS] Kirby Battle Deluxe! - November 30
11/12 [NSW] Xenoblade 2 - December 01
12/15 [3DS] Attack On Titan 2 - November 30
13/09 [NSW] Sonic Forces - November 09
13/09 [PS4] Sonic Forces - November 09
14/17 [PS4] Hatsune Miku Project DIVA Future Tone DX - November 22
15/18 [3DS] Beyblade Burst God - November 23
16/19 [PS4] Kamen Rider Climax Fighters - December 07
17/20 [PS4] Dead Rising 4 Special Edition - December 07
18/NEW [3DS] Harvest Moon Futago no Mura + - December 14
19/21 [PS4] Digimon Story Cyber Saurus Hackers Memory - December 14
19/21 [PSV] Digimon Story Cyber Saurus Hackers Memory - December 14
20/29 [PS4] RESIDENT EVIL 7 GOLD EDITION - December 14
21/22 [NSW] Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings - December 21
21/22 [PS4] Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings - December 21
21/22 [PSV] Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings - December 21
22/23 [PS4] Idol Master Stella stage - December 21
23/NEW [3DS] Mario Party 100 Mini Game Collection - December 28
24/24 [PS4] Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet - February 08
25/25 [PS4] Dissidia FINAL FANTASY NT - January 11
26/26 [PS4] Ninokuni 2 Revenant Kingdom - January 19
27/27 [PS4] Seiken Densetsu 2 Secret of Mana - February 15
27/27 [PSV] Seiken Legend 2 Secret of Mana - February 15
28/28 [PS4] Fist of the North Star - February 22
29/NEW [PS4] METAL GEAR SURVIVE - February 21
30/NEW [PS4] Senran Kagura Burst Re:Newal - February 22
31/NEW [PS4] Far Cry 5 - March 01
32/30 [PS4] Sudden Strike 4 - November 09
33/31 [3DS] Cake shop story Try to make delicious sweets! - November 09
34/32 [NSW] Monopoly for Nintendo Switch - November 09
35/33 [PS4] OCCULTIC; NINE - November 09
35/33 [PSV] OCCULTIC; NINE - November 09
36/34 [3DS] Miracle Tunes! Game de Tune Up! Tabun! - November 09
37/35 [PSV] Our world is ended. - November 09
38/36 [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut It Out, Together - November 10
39/37 [3DS] PriPri Chi-chan! PriPri DecoRoom! - November 16
40/38 [PSV] VA-11 Hall-A - November 16


NEW GAMES
18/NEW [3DS] Harvest Moon Futago no Mura + - December 14

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjblXnCqGoQ

23/NEW [3DS] Mario Party 100 Mini Game Collection - December 28

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHTCnDycWYg

29/NEW [PS4] METAL GEAR SURVIVE - February 21

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0_vWz4fD1Y

30/NEW [PS4] Senran Kagura Burst Re:Newal - February 22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yLFSrQ6VeM

31/NEw [PS4] Far Cry 5 - March 01

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLuf-BzHCQs




GEO's Ranking pre-orders, Oct 16 - Oct 22
Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2017 (Oct 16 - Oct 22)

 

[v_iHuGi]

Will we get numbers tomorrow?

 

[WestEgg]

If we know that Mario did 2 million in 3 days, and assume that 1/4 of Switches sold are in Japan, then 500k isn't that unreasonable.

 

[ggx2ac]

Will we get numbers tomorrow?

Click to shrink...

Today. As in less than 12 hours from now.

 

[Deleted member 2793]

If we know that Mario did 2 million in 3 days, and assume that 1/4 of Switches sold are in Japan, then 500k isn't that unreasonable.

Click to shrink...

2m is probably counting digital too, so I'm not expecting 500k at all.

 

[rokero]

500k for Mario would be amazing hope it's true, eager to see how high Switch goes

 

[Phonzo]

you guys are off your rockers thinking 500k.

350K at best. Quote me./

 

[Nintendojitsu]

you guys are off your rockers thinking 500k.

350K at best. Quote me./

Click to shrink...

I have 350k as my prediction and even I'm not too sure about that now. The response to the game has been amazing so far. It might be over 500k.

 

[Charamiwa]

Yeah this 500k business seems a bit too crazy. Now if it gets 375k or something everyone will be disappointed!