Far Cry 3 Vaas Definition of Insanity
Did I ever tell you the definition of insanity ?-Vaas
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With the opening like this, Momotarou will be a evergreen seller for Christmas 2021 too...
Also, it doesn't matter how good BotW has been performing and how strong the demand is for a sequel, BotW 2 is not gonna be among even Top 5 opening WW when it is released. BotW is popular but it is not THAT popular.
Also, it doesn't matter how good BotW has been performing and how strong the demand is for a sequel, BotW 2 is not gonna be among even Top 5 opening WW when it is released. BotW is popular but it is not THAT popular.
It will do 5m+ first week sell-through without breaking a sweat.
Lol a single player game with legs stronger legs than almost any Game period? A game in which is gonna sell way over 30mil lifetime......
my friend, BotW2 is going to open up better than almost every Nintendo game ever ;)
this man gets it. What are the top 5 best launches of all time from Nintendo? ACNH 11mil+ should be #1
Depends on whether we are talking shipments/sell-through and on what timeframe.
For Switch games it is basically for first week sell-through:
Odyssey (2017): 2m+
Pokémon Let's Go (2018): 3m+
Super Smash Bros Ultimate (2018): 5m+
Pokémon Sword/Shield (2019): 6m+
Animal Crossing New Horizons (2020) : no numbers were given but it was assuredly above Pokémon.
i'd imagine Pokemon G&S are up there but i can't find any concrete numbers.
For the first 2/3 days, here are the last few years for NSW:
ACNH is unknown, but based on the reporting we did have, it should be the highest on this list, around 6.5-7M.
I agree, BOTW2 will be the largest when it launches for Nintendo. Expecting 8-10M global for the first 2-3 days, with ~9-12% coming from JP. Install base will be massive (>100M in Sep-Dec 2021 time frame) and WOM for BOTW is among the best ever seen in the industry. LTD is trickier, but I'd wager 20-25M, compared to BOTW's >35M.
ACNH is unknown, but based on the reporting we did have, it should be the highest on this list, around 6.5-7M.
I agree, BOTW2 will be the largest when it launches for Nintendo. Expecting 8-10M global for the first 2-3 days, with ~9-12% coming from JP. Install base will be massive (>100M in Sep-Dec 2021 time frame) and WOM for BOTW is among the best ever seen in the industry. LTD is trickier, but I'd wager 20-25M, compared to BOTW's >35M.
Botw 2, depends how the game looks, how it's received and marketed of course. But i feel like the potential for week 1 sales is really high. Not without mentionning it will launch at the best time, in 2021 after a huge year but still while the Switch is driving fast.
It will definitely beat Odyssey and Let's go. Should be able to match SSBU i think and do around 5 millions.
Edit : Actually, i think it could go and beat Pokemon. Botw as a brand is gigantic and game still attracts new players to fall in love with it every year. 6+ is possible. Imagine it outsells most Zelda games in a single week. Don't think it will come close to Botw's total as it's a sequel and they usually sell less and Botw will have the entire Switch cycle to sell. But i think it can get to 20 millions if it's really well received.
It will definitely beat Odyssey and Let's go. Should be able to match SSBU i think and do around 5 millions.
Edit : Actually, i think it could go and beat Pokemon. Botw as a brand is gigantic and game still attracts new players to fall in love with it every year. 6+ is possible. Imagine it outsells most Zelda games in a single week. Don't think it will come close to Botw's total as it's a sequel and they usually sell less and Botw will have the entire Switch cycle to sell. But i think it can get to 20 millions if it's really well received.
How big will be the install base when BOTW2 comes out? We know that the Switch base is very active. That BOTW has an awesome wom and it even helped a Mussou to became the best selling game of the genre instantly and without a doubt make it KT best selling game ever before the new year. If the game is good and received to the same avail as the first one, yeah It can open huge.
100mil or above unless the switch drops off a cliff. BOTW2 is a December game most likely.
Yeah, unless the Switch falls of a cliff and/or owners stop buying games from here to the release date, I think BOTW 2 can have the biggest opening for an exclusive title.
It won't be a December game if they can avoid it. There is a reason why big games usually never launch in December.
I personnally think it will be a late September release but October could work too.
AoC just shipped 3mil,BotW2 in comparison if it's a nov/dec release especially will be 10mil ship+digital.
here is hoping, install base should at that time be 95mil+
Breath of the Wild 2 won't have any problem in selling 8m+ first week. It is going to be one of the most anticipated games of the generation. The original game has a terrific word-of-mouth and is THE Switch game for a more core audience, lots of people still buying it after almost 4 years. Of course it depends on reception but honestly I can't doubt on Nintendo on this sequel.
Remember back in 2017 when due to the excitement for BotW everyone assumed BotW 2 would have a shorter development cycle to capitalize on the success? Welp, we're looking at a bare minimum of 4 years between BotW and BotW 2 with a pretty high chance of it being 4 years and a half. Keep in Mind BotW began development in 2013 so it had 4 years of development.
I never assumed that.
and I felt after it showed it's tremendous sales and legs. We should've probably consider that a Next 3D Zelda game could take a bit longer
Not only that, but we know Nintendo's been growing staff (no idea on specifics of Aonuma's group though) and I'm sure Nintendo's gotten even looser with their pockets considering NSW sales success, BOTW sales success (new high for the franchise by factor of 2x and still going strong), and BOTW critical success. BOTW was produced with a lengthy dev cycle (much of which was learning curve for large scale HD development + engine foundation) in the Wii U generation. This thing is going to have a similar dev time by the looks of it with that foundation already being there, so I imagine they are planning to go even bigger than before.
I don't want to be pessimistic but they have one of the best if not the best game of all time to top it really needs to be on a scale never before seen from Nintendo. I wonder what the budget is for Botw2; the original game needed to break 2mil to break even.
while we are talking about ww opening what do we think launch numbers could be in Japan?
I'm not talking about Nintendo only though. There are other games like GTAV, RDR2 and COD games that have gigantic first week.
Pretty sure it was discussed in this thread that the "2M units to break even" quote was a complete mistranslation/misunderstanding of something Miyamoto actually said. I wouldn't latch onto that as any kind of real figure.
700K-1M range I think. ~10% of global launch of 8-10M.
Do you think all those games would have those sales without being multiplat and a huge usebase At the time of release?
I mean yes launch sales would be huge as hell and rival best launch exclusives But that's not even being close to fair. Then if I may add on to the fact those are literally the biggest launch games.
Actually I have to see with COD but even so outside of those 3 franchises I think next biggest launches are Pokémon games
Switch : a lot
PS5 : some
XSX : it's arguable if this even launched
Famitsu Sales: Week 47, 2019 (Nov 18 - Nov 24)
NSW: 179.992
PS4: 7.073
3DS: 1.073
XB1: 110
PSV: 23
04./00. [PS4] Shenmue III <ADV> (Deep Silver) {2019.11.19} (¥6.980) - 17.857 / NEW <60-80%>
24./00. [PS4] Deemo Reborn <ACT> (Unties) {2019.11.21} (¥3.980) - 2.725 / NEW <40-60%>
26./00. [PS4] Sid Meier's Civilization VI <SLG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.11.22} (¥6.300) - 2.039 / NEW <20-40%>
NSW: 179.992
PS4: 7.073
3DS: 1.073
XB1: 110
PSV: 23
04./00. [PS4] Shenmue III <ADV> (Deep Silver) {2019.11.19} (¥6.980) - 17.857 / NEW <60-80%>
24./00. [PS4] Deemo Reborn <ACT> (Unties) {2019.11.21} (¥3.980) - 2.725 / NEW <40-60%>
26./00. [PS4] Sid Meier's Civilization VI <SLG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.11.22} (¥6.300) - 2.039 / NEW <20-40%>
BOTW started (at least preliminary) development shortly after Skyward Sword in 2011; the 3D Zelda team is never not working on the next one. So it was around 5.5 years, though it would have probably been just 5 if they didn't need to make a Switch version.
(If they started development in 2013 then the original 2015 release date would make no sense, there's no way they were targeting a 2 year dev cycle for a massive open world game.)
Xbox series keeps selling out asap in Japan, no idea how much they managed to ship last week tho
Going with 5k.
Going with 5k.
With the bundles and big games that would be surprising. Could happen i guess but yea.
