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Jon Carter

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,746
Nah these ComG numbers are all over the place. They just make no sense at all.

What do you mean, they make no sense? It's literally the amount of people who went in and bought the game. If a game in the same series on the same system has 500 points whereas the first one had 1000, you can expect a massive drop. It's useful for trends within the same franchises and systems. You're not supposed to look at the points and try to figure out how many people across Japan does one person in one store represent.
 

Guaraná

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,046
brazil, unfortunately
What do you mean, they make no sense? It's literally the amount of people who went in and bought the game. If a game in the same series on the same system has 500 points whereas the first one had 1000, you can expect a massive drop. It's useful for trends within the same franchises and systems. You're not supposed to look at the points and try to figure out how many people across Japan does one person in one store represent.
Ok, thnks for your useful explanation.
Cheers
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,575
Nah these ComG numbers are all over the place. They just make no sense at all.

They are preorder numbers. How do they make no sense? It's probably the most direct type of data you could get.

It's just one chain covering a small area however. It's not a fool proof prediction tool. It is subject to lots of bias that make it flawed for any direct trends.
 

Nintenleo

Member
Nov 9, 2017
4,260
Italy
One million in less than a week? Isn't that a bit too much even for Smash? If so, wow, I would have never seen that coming.
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,137
Smash has many bad user reviews on Amazon japan. I hope Smash does not have bad word of mouth. The bad online functionality in addition to paid online could really hurt the game and the subscription numbers as a whole.

Unfortunately it seems deserved based on the online complaints. Then again it's Amazon Japan so it could be anything.
 

MegaXZero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 21, 2018
5,079
Smash has many bad user reviews on Amazon japan. I hope Smash does not have bad word of mouth. The bad online functionality in addition to paid online could really hurt the game and the subscription numbers as a whole.
Lmao, using amazon Japan reviews as a metric for anything. They are garbage.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
For some reason I'm really shocked that no non-Pokémon nintendo game has broken 1m first week?? meaning smash is about to break a rather significant record as highest selling Nintendo game Fw??!
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
For some reason I'm really shocked that no non-Pokémon nintendo game has broken 1m first week?? meaning smash is about to break a rather significant record as highest selling Nintendo game Fw??!
The games that are famous enough have a bigger audience overseas, like Zelda and the game that are popular in Japan dont have the pedigree to make 1M week 1. Other case could be like splatoon, too early on the console life time to make 1M mark without spme mumbo jumbl black magic attachment Rate
 
Jan 1, 2018
514
Nope. I'm on my phone but Brawl and both New Super Mario Bros game opened up close to a million, but I can't think of any games that beat a million FW.
Just checked GameDataLibrary and the only titles on Nintendo platforms to have exceeded 1M FW are Pokemon BW, DQ9, Pokemon XY, Pokemon SuMo, Monster Hunter 4, Pokemon BW2, Monster Hunter 4U, Pokemon DP, Pokemon ORAS, Pokemon GS, Pokemon HGSS, Yokai Watch 2, Pokemon USUM, DQ11, and Monster Hunter XX.

The only one of those to be published by Nintendo is Pokemon Gold/Silver.
 
Apr 21, 2018
6,969
Just checked GameDataLibrary and the only titles on Nintendo platforms to have exceeded 1M FW are Pokemon BW, DQ9, Pokemon XY, Pokemon SuMo, Monster Hunter 4, Pokemon BW2, Monster Hunter 4U, Pokemon DP, Pokemon ORAS, Pokemon GS, Pokemon HGSS, Yokai Watch 2, Pokemon USUM, DQ11, and Monster Hunter XX.

The only one of those to be published by Nintendo is Pokemon Gold/Silver.

Interesting that Smash could be the first console release over 1million FW
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,078
For some reason I'm really shocked that no non-Pokémon nintendo game has broken 1m first week?? meaning smash is about to break a rather significant record as highest selling Nintendo game Fw??!

The biggest Nintendo games get there with huge legs. Still it does show potentially how impressive the ultimate debut is going to be.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
The biggest Nintendo games get there with huge legs. Still it does show potentially how impressive the ultimate debut is going to be.
The games that are famous enough have a bigger audience overseas, like Zelda and the game that are popular in Japan dont have the pedigree to make 1M week 1. Other case could be like splatoon, too early on the console life time to make 1M mark without spme mumbo jumbl black magic attachment Rate
Yeah it definitely makes sense when you think about it, bc Nintendo games have a far more stretched out sales curve & don't have majority of their sales FW. But regardless it says incredible things for smash. We know it will have those Nintendo first party switch legs, so combined with the literal best non-Pokémon Nintendo opening of all time.... this game is going places. And by places I mean the >25 million hall of fame
 

Rob2K19

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,646
IM BACK! Since I missed last week, I'll say it now. All 3 trackers are now over 200k. Nomura tensai! Woo!

tetsuya-nomura-294x300.jpg


Now for this week.

SimilarGoodFlatfish-size_restricted.gif

Superior Tracker said:
26./23. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts \ Kingdom Hearts Re:Chain of Memories> \ Kingdom Hearts HD II.5 ReMIX <Kingdom Hearts II \ Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ \ Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep>> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.03.09} (¥6.800) - 2.105 / 219.227 <80-100%> (+6%)

Not sure what's up with the multi quote, so this is all I got this week. Superior Tracker continues to be superior.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,410
So far Nintendo doesn't show intention to restock Mario Party bundles, maybe it was a one time deal. At the very best they'll see another shipment for Christmas and New Year holidays, like Pokemon bundles.

Mario Party bundles are sold out on online stores but they are available at retail stores.

Comg and Tsutaya sales show that the bundle might be flat or bigger this week.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,482
What mid tier games are upcoming out for switch in the next month or two

the entire comg preorder list is PS4, except DQB and NSMB
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,751
Italy
Nah these ComG numbers are all over the place. They just make no sense at all.

COMG is a small chain of stores located in Niigata prefecture—like, a dozen of stores or something. They publish daily preorders and weekly sales in their stores but these data can't be taken to make inference on the entire population of stores because of course the sample is not representative. Even across years within COMG stores it's difficult to draw any conclusion because stores closed and you never know how they changed the way they sell video games.

For some reason I'm really shocked that no non-Pokémon nintendo game has broken 1m first week?? meaning smash is about to break a rather significant record as highest selling Nintendo game Fw??!

Nintendo games tend to sell well over time and their audience is not composed of day one purchasers as other big franchises.

Animal Crossing New Leaf which was one of the biggest Nintendo launches back then did below 700k while selling close to 6m at the end.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
COMG is a small chain of stores located in Niigata prefecture—like, a dozen of stores or something. They publish daily preorders and weekly sales in their stores but these data can't be taken to make inference on the entire population of stores because of course the sample is not representative. Even across years within COMG stores it's difficult to draw any conclusion because stores closed and you never know how they changed the way they sell video games.



Nintendo games tend to sell well over time and their audience is not composed of day one purchasers as other big franchises.

Animal Crossing New Leaf which was one of the biggest Nintendo launches back then did below 700k while selling close to 6m at the end.
To be fair, New Leaf did have major stock issues during its first week, so maybe it could have done 1M first week
 

Nocturnal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,321
Week 48 2018 Software: 217.264

Week 49 to Week 1 are going to be insane.


M-C Switch Software Sales Week 48 2017 to Week 1 2018:
Week 48: 247.530
Week 49: 239.146(-4%)
Week 50: 307.692(+29%)
Week 51: 590.428(+92%)
Week 52: 416.362(-29%)
Week 1: 441.447(+6%)
TOTAL: 2.242.605

TOP 5:
1) Super Mario Odyssey - 716.089
2) Splatoon 2 - 509.179
3) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 377.749
4) Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 168.200
5) The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild - 145.796



M-C 3DS Software Sales Week 48 2012 to Week 1 2013:
Week 48: 356.864
Week 49: 396.911(+11%)
Week 50: 672.803(+70%)
Week 51: 903.449(+34%)
Week 52: 604.151(-33%)
Week 1: 666.614(+10%)
TOTAL: 3.600.792

TOP 5:
1) Animal Crossing New Leaf - 996.331
2) Paper Mario: Sticker Star - 470.394(new)
3) New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 413.871
4) Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone - 365.536(new)
5) Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Magnagate and the Infinite Dungeon - 287.409
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
I did notice smash ultimate is oddly difficult, but at least you can adjust difficulty in most modes.
Not sure if that'll hurt sales, but even I've been struggling
 

sheepysheep

Member
Nov 19, 2018
176
Famitsu initial/preliminary report is in apparently - 1.303 million. Compare to Pokemon Let's go had 552k.

Wanted to make a thread, but insufficient privileges :(
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,208
Famitsu initial/preliminary report is in apparently - 1.303 million. Compare to Pokemon Let's go had 552k.

Wanted to make a thread, but insufficient privileges :(
If true, I think I predicted 1.3 million somewhere back in my post history... maybe that is wishful thinking, though.
There's no point in making a thread about preliminary prediction when official number is coming tomorrow or the day after from the same source.
1.303 million is a rather specific number to be a prediction.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
There's no point in making a thread about preliminary prediction when official number is coming tomorrow or the day after from the same source.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,575
There's no point in making a thread about preliminary prediction when official number is coming tomorrow or the day after from the same source.

It really doesn't hurt either way imo. Also I just want all the trolls to get this shit out of thier system now so the actual thread will have substantially less thread shitting.
 

Tito

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,030
>preliminary
so it can climb more? nice
IIRC, Famitsu and MC do surveys on some stores, and estimate the number sold with that data. So, preliminary means they don't have the complete data, and with the data they have, they estimate it will end in 1.3 million. Could be more or less, but around that number.