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Media Create Sales: Week 48, 2018 (Nov 26 - Dec 02)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Media Create:
- 17 releases this week, but many didn't sell even 10k
- ratio of new games in Software sales: 34.92 > 25.76%
- Hardware: 105.82% of Week 47 sales
- Switch sales 111.23% of Week 47 sales (they mention Minecraft bundle, but give no specific number for it)
- PQ2: 80k, vs 187k for PQ at launch
- PQ2: sell-through 64.54% vs 80.64%
- PQ2: best debut on 3DS this year, better than EOX (72k)
- PQ2: for some reason they seem to think PQ2 did alright given current state of 3DS market
https://www.m-create.com/ranking/
Dengeki:
- PQ2: 76k, 60% sell-through
November (Oct. 29 to Dec. 2):
- Pokémon Let's GO was only truly big release, no other game sold at least 300k
- 5th month in a row with sales down this FY
- Smash, save us!
Top 3 Software for November:
http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/846/1846191/
- 17 releases this week, but many didn't sell even 10k
- ratio of new games in Software sales: 34.92 > 25.76%
- Hardware: 105.82% of Week 47 sales
- Switch sales 111.23% of Week 47 sales (they mention Minecraft bundle, but give no specific number for it)
- PQ2: 80k, vs 187k for PQ at launch
- PQ2: sell-through 64.54% vs 80.64%
- PQ2: best debut on 3DS this year, better than EOX (72k)
- PQ2: for some reason they seem to think PQ2 did alright given current state of 3DS market
https://www.m-create.com/ranking/
Dengeki:
- PQ2: 76k, 60% sell-through
November (Oct. 29 to Dec. 2):
- Hardware: 650 000 units (-19.7%) / 19.6 billion Yen (-13.2%)
- Software: 2 440 000 units (-36.7%) / 15.4 billion Yen (-32.2%)
- Total: 35 billion Yen (-22.7%)
- Pokémon Let's GO was only truly big release, no other game sold at least 300k
- 5th month in a row with sales down this FY
- Smash, save us!
Top 3 Software for November:
- [NSW] Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! (The Pokémon Company)
- [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo): 128 000 units
- [PS4] Battlefield V (EA): 126 000 units
http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/846/1846191/
Leg-o-Meter, November 2018 Edition
No real big change this month, and Top of the chart is basically set in stone at this point. Nobody ain't entering that Nintendo fortress.
No real big change this month, and Top of the chart is basically set in stone at this point. Nobody ain't entering that Nintendo fortress.
OP
OP
Pokemon doesn't look to benefit a lot from holidays so far. This is Smash week and everything will be overshadowed from it but next week will show clearly what it can do in December. So far first three weeks are underwhelming in Japan and good word of mouth hasn't helped.
Are there any big releases next week? If not with the smash hype I can't see it being up much week on week.
Obviously not a great situation. Next year should be a strong one for the switch SW wise but the 3DS and PS4 will both see declines. I think next year will be up on the back of the switch.
They have an amazing promotion starting this week : 5k yens off on all PS4 models + 2 free games.
speaking of monster hunting, I wonder if the devs of Dauntless will attempt to get a JP localization. not that it'll do MH numbers, but so far there aren't any hunting games on the switch, and Dauntless being the first announced one, they could get something if they get in early enough.
however, they're not really pushing for it, and the switch version isn't due until after April next year
however, they're not really pushing for it, and the switch version isn't due until after April next year
OP
OP
This December would be a disaster for PS4 if Sony didn't act. There will be big improvement at hardware, it won't be far behind last year, but it could backfire at software.
does this even take into account the transition to Digital over physical media? I feel this is a point most people overlook when comparing current numbers to older
This from Media Create includes Digital.
(Lower part hardware sales, middle part retail software sales, higher part download sales).
2018 will be down from 2017 for sure.
The question is if it will be it is lower than 2014-5-6 or not.
The PS4 has more games coming out. Third parties have been slow with Switch but they're all in on PS4. All those small or average sellers add up to a lot.
Fairly obvious that would be the case considering MHW released and overshadowed pretty much every released ever launched on the PS4 by a pretty substancial amount.
This year was marked by lack of ports at the begining of the year because 3rd party publishers hadn't gotten their act together and delays. To me the delays are the main reason software is down considerably compared to 2017. First I think Smash was meant to be an earlier release but was delayed which pushed back other Nintendo games(namely
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe) into 2019. Yo-Kai Watch is the second game that had a considerable effect due to being delayed - I think it would have been a major software mover had it released this holiday. Lastly you have midrange games that were delayed into 2019 - DQXI & Inazuma Ares being the big ones among them.
This as a whole should ensure we see pretty substancial growth in Software sales next year with Yo-Kai, Animal Crossing, Pokemon all already expected to launch - personally outside of Smash I expect those to outsell all games that were released in 2018 fairly easily.
What's the data for the statement "around 15 million games would need to be sold in December just for the year to be flat " from Game Data Library?
Either I'm not understanding some context, or their numbers are off. The numbers I'm finding suggest something closer to 11 million to be flat. Even their own numbers suggest something less ("Current sales are at 22M").
Either I'm not understanding some context, or their numbers are off. The numbers I'm finding suggest something closer to 11 million to be flat. Even their own numbers suggest something less ("Current sales are at 22M").
No one can show you since Nintendo & Sony don't share digital numbers. But with a 15% digital sales would be around 21.4M units sold across PS4/Switch, for games that have a physical release. There is a also a lot of digital only titles that have done great numbers at a lower price across the PS4/Switch - add to that different promotions for bigger games across the two ecosystems and the picture for Sony and Nintendo is probably a lot better than what we are seeing from the official trackers.
OP
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There's a graph exactly 6 posts over you, revenue based.
Edit: And digital revenue doesn't include download only titles, only those with a retail release.
Software will at least match 2017 at revenue, hardware will fall behind.
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Sony shares numbers with NPD and also in UK starting on 2019.
I feel that the percentage is higher than 15% , especially on PS4. If I don't remind wrong capcom digital revenue last year was above 50%.
Looking at impressions from retailers this is the picture for Friday more or less.
It could do better, worse or the same as 2x Pokemon sales. For example if Smash has more day one buyers because the audience likes to preorder in higher % than the Pokemon audience the ratio will go down.
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What i meant was: first friday x first friday or first friday x current friday ?
I'm certain it's Pokemon's first friday vs Smash's first friday
if it does take into account digital, then yes, that is a market reduction.This from Media Create includes Digital.
(Lower part hardware sales, middle part retail software sales, higher part download sales).
2018 will be down from 2017 for sure.
The question is if it will be it is lower than 2014-5-6 or not.
then it goes to seek who is the one being the most at fault for it Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo (IMO the market reduction is mostly on Sony side cause Consoles decline leaving whatever is left of the market basically a monopolly for Nintendo)
Oh boy. The number for Smash is going to be wild.
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Switch will end up ahead by a lot. The next few weeks the switch will move a monstrous amount of SW. Having said that it's easy to forget that the PS4 still has a bigger user base and significantly so for much of the year. It also had by far the biggest release of its lifespan this year. The switch is still warming up, next years numbers will tell a different story.
Seems pretty well inline with expectations. Double Pokémon or slightly more would point to somewhere around a 1.3-1.4 million opening at retail. With a strong digital presence that's an amazing opening.
Just giving an example with 15%, it could be a lot higher obviously - we don't know either way. Japan is lagging behind digital addoption and second hand market is still pretty big.
Since the end of the Wii/DS era, people predicted that the market would never reach that high ever again, because of smartphone.
The positive news is that the tendency was reversed in 2017 because of the Switch launch, but it couldn't keep the pace in 2018. Let's hope it has just a minor drop and next year it recovers the growth as a whole.
https:///amazon-japans-nintendo-switch-cyber-monday-digital-sale-kicks-off/
this was mentioned before, right? that JP is having its cyber Monday deals this week
this was mentioned before, right? that JP is having its cyber Monday deals this week
I'm still surprised and it shows overall software sales on the ps4 are healthy. If you add digital ps4 will be a few million more in the lead. Would it be enough to be leading after another month?
December with Smash and Pokémon will probably put Switch in the lead for the year. Especially since Switch software tends to perform very well during the holidays.
Whether PS4 sales are healthy is more complicated a question than whether its software is selling more in sum than Switch's: firstly, Switch has fewer units out, so it shouldn't actually be an achievement for PS4 to outsell the software sales of a system with fewer units. Secondly, Switch has a dearth of third party games, while PS4 has almost literally all the games, so it should be expected that PS4 sells decent amounts still. And then we need to consider that Switch software compared to its number of units out there is very strong: it was only slightly behind 3DS despite having a sizable hardware gap. Of course, then there's digital making up an increasing part of the total picture, so the comparison is simply very hard to make.
All of this isn't to say PS4 software sales aren't healthy, mind you, but I just wanted to give you some points to think about, and maybe these points can be used for a comparison with other systems in the past to see what a system typically sells in Japan over its lifetime. That's a very large project, of course, and one I don't have the time for myself.
The only semi-big 3rd party Switch release in the next few months is Builders 2 in a few weeks.
NSMBUDX also should help in making January stronger than last year, but yes, next January should be stronger than this year's January.
OP
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Switch software is outpacing 3DS software launch aligned despite lower install base and not counting eShop only titles where it Switch is much stronger.
Nintendo quarter reports are public and nothing is more reliable than them, I don't know why this story keeps reproduced.
Oh, I see. I didn't look at the latest Nintendo numbers but went by the conversations that have been had about it. I should definitely have used that number for a more accurate statement, sorry about that!
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https://www.resetera.com/threads/me...2018-oct-15-oct-21.76714/page-9#post-14370856
3DS 2012
Q1 - 3,03m
Q2 - 2,96m
Q3 - 4,10m
Q4 - 9,02m
NSW 2018
Q1 - 3,34m
Q2 - 2,95m
Q3 - 4,20m
3DS 2012
Q1 - 3,03m
Q2 - 2,96m
Q3 - 4,10m
Q4 - 9,02m
NSW 2018
Q1 - 3,34m
Q2 - 2,95m
Q3 - 4,20m