Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2019 (Dec 02 - Dec 08)

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

sfortunato said:
dead period as September/October are usually slow months;

end of Splatoon 2's bundles which kept sales higher on a weekly basis;

end of Octo Expansion effect, which launched a few weeks earlier and definitely pushed back some sales.

#1 In that case, sales would have increased again in 2019 to be closer to the 2018 baseline. They haven't.
#2 When did the bundle start? From the release of the game until exactly end of September 2018? If it is this bundle you are talking about, it started in July 2018 and has no bearing on the much longer period which I base my arguments on.

https://twitter.com/SplatoonJP/status/1013984701789364225

#3 Seems arbitrary to me, especially as the Octoexpansion did nothing on release for the sales of the base game. Also, it launched in mid-June. The decline happened late September/Early October. Ain't it more far fatched than NSO?

Fularu · Dec 12, 2019

zakatana said:
It's ok. I do research in the field of energy and I'm used to argue with clueless climate change deniers telling me that the rise in the atmospheric greenhouse gases isn't correlated with the rise in temperature (or with human activities, depending on which agenda they are pushing).

It'a OK. We're also used to argue with people clueless about natural software sales decay following an explosive growth. Be it because of natural market saturation or hostility towards paid subscription services, whichever agenda they're pushing

(I kid, I disagree with your conclusions but that was an easy one to make :p)

sfortunato · Dec 12, 2019

zakatana said:
#1 In that case, sales would have increased again in 2019 to be closer to the 2018 baseline. They haven't.
#2 When did the bundle start? From the release of the game until exactly end of September 2018? If it is this bundle you are talking about, it started in July 2018 and has no bearing on the much longer period which I base my arguments on.

https://twitter.com/SplatoonJP/status/1013984701789364225
#3 Seems arbitrary to me, especially as the Octoexpansion did nothing on release for the sales of the base game. Also, it launched in mid-June. The decline happened late September/Early October. Ain't it more far fatched than NSO?

1. That's not the point. You're arguing that NSO had a causal effect on Splatoon 2 sales based on sales before NSO was introduced and after NSO was introduced. Point is, NSO was introduced when a dead period was starting so that seasonality might have had an effect on Splatoon 2 sales too.

2. The Summer 2018 Splatoon 2 bundle increased the game weekly sales. That's a fact. Bundle is over, sales decrease. The bundle helped in keeping sales higher than they would have been without a bundle. Hence, it's not that Splatoon 2 sales declined after NSO was introduced because of NSO but sales went back to an ordinary level.

3. Octo Expansion definitely helped Splatoon 2 sales as it was a way for Nintendo to promote the game once again and also might have brought some new audience in. What you don't understand is the concept of counterfactual: did Octo Expansion increase sales? We can't know for sure but the fact that actual sales didn't increase following its introduction doesn't mean that it hadn't has any effect. Perhaps it kept sales afloat. Without it and bundles sales would have been much lower.

Deleted member 873 · Dec 12, 2019

Charamiwa said:
Level 5 is (was) a legendary studio that managed to create a multi million new IP this decade. It's only Nintendo and them in that club. Without them the japanese industry just gets a shade darker. I don't really feel like mocking them, just hope they'll be able to rebound from this, if only to make these threads that much more interesting instead of saying 'lol Hino" all day long.

Spilled.

Also, Layton, Fantasy Life, YW and IE are fun.

Deleted member 60185 · Dec 12, 2019

zakatana said:
Found it!

If we go by trendline the drop of Splatoon 2 is not that extraordinary. It had its short downfall after NSO, but went back to the regular curve after that.

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

Marth said:
If we go by trendline the drop of Splatoon 2 is not that extraordinary. It had its short downfall after NSO, but went back to the regular curve after that.

Is that what you read? it went down to 5K, increased again for the holidays (it will increase again during these holidays, albeit much less), then stayed at 5k throughout 2019, which was the new baseline...

Glio · Dec 12, 2019

We live on Groundhog Day in Media Create. A man vs the world.

sfortunato · Dec 12, 2019

Marth said:
If we go by trendline the drop of Splatoon 2 is not that extraordinary. It had its short downfall after NSO, but went back to the regular curve after that.

It's funny because he mentions Mario Kart 8 Deluxe which had the same trend trajectory, simply keeping slighlty higher numbers but that's because it was below 2m by then and of course had much growth potential.

sfortunato · Dec 12, 2019

zakatana said:
Is that what you read? it went down to 5K, increased again for the holidays (it will increase again during these holidays, albeit much less), then stayed at 5k throughout 2019, which was the new baseline...

Smash had a 8-9k baseline for many months this year. Why? Because it's already sold close to 4m.

You can only sell as much to a 10m userbase and also it competes with new games in terms of new adopters.

Kouriozan · Dec 12, 2019

All this Switch 3rd parties talk reminds me of NIS being there early with Disgaea port and being very happy about the result, the console is nearing its 3rd anniversary and looks like it's another Wii situation where it keeps getting ignored and maybe get year old ports.

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

sfortunato said:
It's funny because he mentions Mario Kart 8 Deluxe which had the same trend trajectory, simply keeping slighlty higher numbers but that's because it was below 2m by then and of course had much growth potential.

I'm talking about the long term baseline indeed. The one from Splatoon was much more reduced than the one from Mario Kart. And since this baseline is mostly carried by new buyers...
Also, the introduction of NSO is literally the moment where Mario Kart started outselling Splatoon.

Chris1964 · Dec 12, 2019

stealthyfrog said:
Wonder if Dimps will make the mistake of skipping Switch for Xenoverse 3 at launch. Xenoverse 2 sold really well on Switch despite being a late port, maybe Dimps will think they can do it again.

Unless it's something big from Nintendo or a third party mega hit the time of late ports has passed. They won't have the same success they would have in 2017 or 2018.

Vinnk · Dec 12, 2019

Can we add data points for the launch of Fortnight on switch and the announcement of the end of Splat fests?

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

Vinnk said:
Can we add data points for the launch of Fortnight on switch and the announcement of the end of Splat fests?

Fortnite launched just when the Octo-expansion released (E3 if I recall). As for the Splatfests, we knew that they were going to stop way before no?

Chris1964 · Dec 12, 2019

Vinnk said:
Can we add data points for the launch of Fortnight on switch and the announcement of the end of Splat fests?

Didn't we have enough NSO for another thread?

Deleted member 10737 · Dec 12, 2019

oh fucking jeez why are we talking about splatoon and NSO again? let it go.

Skittzo · Dec 12, 2019

Time is a flat circle.

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

mazi said:
oh fucking jeez why are we talking about splatoon and NSO again? let it go.

Nobody forces you to read a discussion about Japanese sales in a topic about Japanese sales. You can leave.

Lite_Agent · Dec 12, 2019

stealthyfrog said:
Wonder if Dimps will make the mistake of skipping Switch for Xenoverse 3 at launch. Xenoverse 2 sold really well on Switch despite being a late port, maybe Dimps will think they can do it again.

Considering XV3 is bound to be PS5/XB1 bound, it most certainly will. Unless there's strong clues that points towards current-gen launch, which would be surprising (for me at least).

MegaXZero · Dec 12, 2019

Marth said:
If we go by trendline the drop of Splatoon 2 is not that extraordinary. It had its short downfall after NSO, but went back to the regular curve after that.

It's clear as day to anyone, especially scientists, that it was trending downward before NSO release. You can easily just draw a straight line for the trendline.

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

MegaXZero said:
It's clear as day to anyone, especially scientists, that it was trending downward before NSO release. You can easily just draw a straight line for the trendline.

You make it sound as if the "straight lines" were arbitrarily chosen.
They are shown to illustrate the baseline of the sales; that is, how the game performs during an empty period (no holidays, no special offer etc.). In that case, one can easily identify 3 successive baselines. The first 2 being in the 15-20K ballpark, and the one following NSO release being in the 5K ballpark.

Piston · Dec 12, 2019

zakatana said:
I'm talking about the long term baseline indeed. The one from Splatoon was much more reduced than the one from Mario Kart. And since this baseline is mostly carried by new buyers...
Also, the introduction of NSO is literally the moment where Mario Kart started outselling Splatoon.

The overarching point of this is that Splatoon 2 has sold over 3.2 million (probably closer to 4 million with Digital) and has reached market saturation. Mario Kart 8 hasn't outsold the best selling entry in the franchise and is at a lower LTD than Splatoon 2 currently, it still has more room to have a higher long term baseline as a product. That is what you are seeing.

NSO might have had a minuscule effect, but anyone that wants to play Splatoon 2 online is going to add NSO. It costs almost nothing and it has quite a few other benefits at his point with NES, SNES, Tetris 99, and various voucher deals.

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

Piston said:
The overarching point of this is that Splatoon 2 has sold over 3.2 million (probably closer to 4 million with Digital) and has reached market saturation. Mario Kart 8 hasn't outsold the best selling entry in the franchise and is at a lower LTD than Splatoon 2 currently, it still has more room to have a higher long term baseline as a product. That is what you are seeing.

NSO might have had a minuscule effect, but anyone that wants to play Splatoon 2 online is going to add NSO. It costs almost nothing and it has quite a few other benefits at his point with NES, SNES, Tetris 99, and various voucher deals.

Market saturation doesn't happen overnight (as in, the baseline being lowered bu 2/3 overnight). Especially when the sales of an evergreen title rely more on the new buyers of a console. Two arguments which are always conveninetly ignored when answering to me.
Anyway, end of the discussion for today as far as I'm concerned. But don't worry, next time Splatoon 2 has a slight bump due to some holidays, I'll be sure to answer again.

Overall, it wasfun seeing the sales of the game perfectly aligning with what I predicted throughout the year. After all, this is what this thread is for.

Deleted member 60185 · Dec 12, 2019

So here are the remaining weeks in a chart up to the current one:

fiendcode · Dec 12, 2019

Lite_Agent said:
Considering XV3 is bound to be PS5/XB1 bound, it most certainly will. Unless there's strong clues that points towards current-gen launch, which would be surprising (for me at least).

It could be cross-gen like XV1 was. Then again by the time it's happening Switch 2 may be on the horizon as well and more capable of a port.

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

Marth said:
So here are the remaining weeks in a chart up to the current one:

Thanks. It shows exactly what I was saying too. Could you also put them in a semi-log scale to facilitate the reading?

Piston · Dec 12, 2019

Marth said:
So here are the remaining weeks in a chart up to the current one:

Yup. There it is.

MegaXZero · Dec 12, 2019

zakatana said:
You make it sound as if the "straight lines" were arbitrarily chosen.
They are shown to illustrate the baseline of the sales; that is, how the game performs during an empty period (no holidays, no special offer etc.). In that case, one can easily identify 3 successive baselines. The first 2 being in the 15-20K ballpark, and the one following NSO release being in the 5K ballpark.

I said straight line for a trendline not baseline, lmao.

Charamiwa · Dec 12, 2019

They'll probably want to sell Xenoverse 3 on its graphical leap. The first 2 look similar and they'll want to make the 3rd one stand out.

Chris1964 · Dec 12, 2019

Third party games will take some time to go next generation only.

Lite_Agent · Dec 12, 2019

fiendcode said:
It could be cross-gen like XV1 was. Then again by the time it's happening Switch 2 may be on the horizon as well and more capable of a port.

Oh, it was? Completely forgot about that. Tbh, not expecting XV3 any time soon, considering they're still actively making stuff for XV2, and I assume BN got other priorities at the moment.

ILikeFeet · Dec 12, 2019

Chris1964 said:
Third party games will take some time to go next generation only.

by that time, Switch 2 will be talked about. and even then, Switch 1 would still be supported.

OtakuCoder · Dec 12, 2019

Kouriozan said:
All this Switch 3rd parties talk reminds me of NIS being there early with Disgaea port and being very happy about the result, the console is nearing its 3rd anniversary and looks like it's another Wii situation where it keeps getting ignored and maybe get year old ports.

Isn't NIS supposedly circling the drain financially? They're probably too busy trying to fix that mobile Disgaea game to be greenlighting much else.

MegaXZero · Dec 12, 2019

OtakuCoder said:
Isn't NIS supposedly circling the drain financially? They're probably too busy trying to fix that mobile Disgaea game to be greenlighting much else.

It's already back

Oregano · Dec 12, 2019

It got lost in the shuffle but Shironeko Project being delayed is something of a blow to Switch as it was one of the few games with potential to blow up.(although it was probably alright too late for that?)

KillerMan91 · Dec 12, 2019

Chris1964 said:
Sony has made it clear that strategy for PS4 will be holidays promotions. First priority is PS5 and from the moment it will likely launch at very high price there won't be risk of permanent PS4 price drop.

I would forget Switch price drop for either model anytime soon.

I don't think permanent 20k yen PS4 and possibly 50k yen PS5 share the same audience. Well at least not outside of Japan. I guess they could go with different strategies in different regions.

Deleted member 37917 · Dec 12, 2019

Chris1964 said:
Third party games will take some time to go next generation only.

Every current gen game (at least multiplatform) could realistically be ported to Switch from a technical viewpoint. I'm not so sure that it'll be the case for the inevitable cross generation games, where the base ps4 and xbox1 will be in the situation that the Switch is in now. And I'm not only talking about AAA games.
I hope that by that time, Nintendo will offer a hardware upgrade (be it a Switch pro or whatever) and go toward an incremental model rather than a generation based model.

ILikeFeet · Dec 12, 2019

Oregano said:
It got lost in the shuffle but Shironeko Project being delayed is something of a blow to Switch as it was one of the few games with potential to blow up.(although it was probably alright too late for that?)

is that something we can really say when we don't too much about the game?

Oregano · Dec 12, 2019

ILikeFeet said:
is that something we can really say when we don't too much about the game?

I assume it was going to just be a console adaptation ala Puzzle and Dragons or Monster Strikes, and the mobile game was (is?) very popular.

Yuntu · Dec 12, 2019

God this Splatoon talk ... thank the lord for the ignore button.

CaviarMeths · Dec 12, 2019

Yuntu said:
God this Splatoon talk ... thank the lord for the ignore button.

Doesn't actually work if 20 people quote the person you have ignored anyway.

Chris1964 · Dec 12, 2019

KillerMan91 said:
I don't think permanent 20k yen PS4 and possibly 50k yen PS5 share the same audience. Well at least not outside of Japan. I guess they could go with different strategies in different regions.

From the moment there will be many cross platform games with PS4 Pro existing the impact at west won't be as big in Japan but it will be there. We also don't know how much or if any profit Sony will make from every console and if there's any point limiting the revenue right now.

Yuntu · Dec 12, 2019

CaviarMeths said:
Doesn't actually work if 20 people quote the person you have ignored anyway.

Fair point.

Sal_S · Dec 12, 2019

*cough*
Monster Hunter on switch anyone?

Wander_ · Dec 12, 2019

Slarvax said:
*cough*
Monster Hunter on switch anyone?

not happening anymore.

Kerotan · Dec 12, 2019

Chris1964 said:
From the moment there will be many cross platform games with PS4 Pro existing the impact at west won't be as big in Japan but it will be there. We also don't know how much or if any profit Sony will make from every console and if there's any point limiting the revenue right now.

They make profit after they sell the console. Even if they were to sell at a loss they will recoup them and then some. Expanding your audience is the way to go. Get as many people as possible buying the ps4 and ps5.

What's the point in having the ps5 launch at 300k week 1 then slow to 10k a week for the next year when you could have those same ps5 sales and higher ps4 sales too which ultimately gets people into the eco system who'll probably buy a cheaper ps5 down the line.

KillerMan91 · Dec 12, 2019

Chris1964 said:
From the moment there will be many cross platform games with PS4 Pro existing the impact at west won't be as big in Japan but it will be there. We also don't know how much or if any profit Sony will make from every console and if there's any point limiting the revenue right now.

PS4 is still made with 16nm process so super slim model made with 7nm process should already cut manufacturing costs by decent amount. Also SSD drives (like size of 250Gb) start to be cheaper than cheapest HDDs. PS4 Pro makes thins a bit less clear but I think they could just phase it out after PS5 launches and so there would be cheap entry level device to PS ecosystem (base PS4) and premium high end level device (PS5). With companies being all about ecosystems nowadays it makes no sense to me to let PS4 simply die off and not have cheaper entry level system.

Lite_Agent · Dec 12, 2019

Slarvax said:
*cough*
Monster Hunter on switch anyone?

Slarvax
~~Banned~~

Just kidding xD

Andri · Dec 12, 2019

that graph with the baseline makes no sense to me.
What is the "baseline" based on ?
Why is the third baseline at the value of the lowest week, when all other weeks were higher ?

Pokémon · Dec 12, 2019

Slarvax said:
*cough*
Monster Hunter on switch anyone?

Check out TGA later today when Capcom will announce an exclusive Monster Hunter game for the Nintendo Switch family of Systems.

Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2019 (Dec 02 - Dec 08)

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