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Pezus

Member
Apr 9, 2018
190
Iceland
Pachter predicted that the Wii U would fail, the Vita would fail, the Switch would be immensely successful, Breath of the Wild would be the highest rated game in the series, and Mario Odyssey would be the highest selling SKU of last Holiday season.
People like to harp on his failures, but everyone forgets it when he gets something right


The Last of Us is 9 million total. Uncharted 4 is 8.5 million.

What's the source?
 

get2sammyb

Editor at Push Square
Verified
Oct 27, 2017
3,031
UK
I do think Spider-Man will end up being the highest selling PS4 exclusive though due to the increased worldwide appeal of the character.

Spider-Man is also perfect bundle fodder. It's going to be a Teen rated game (I suspect?) and is universally appealing so I imagine they're going to bundle it like crazy.
 

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
To be fair:

Everyone predicted the WiiU would fail.
Most probably predicted the Vita would fail (handheld market has and always will be Nintendo's).
Ocarina of Time is still higher rated than BotW.
3D Mario on the hottest new Nintendo console being a big seller during the Holidays? Shocking!

So of the 4 things you mentioned he got right: 1 he actually got wrong and 3 aren't exactly bold predictions.

That said, I don't really keep up with his record for predictions and I'm not trying to harp on the guy. Just don't think the predictions you mentioned are all that noteworthy.
I mean, it is easy to be reductionist with any correct predictions for anyone with hindsight bias lol. It was still stuff he did get right.

Pachter certainly didn't predict the Wii U would fail...until after it failed

http://nintendotoday.com/micheal-pachter-wii-u-sell-out/

He was bullish on Switch until the price was revealed to be $300, he scaled back his tone big time after that.

https://gamingbolt.com/michael-pach...-than-expected-would-have-been-amazing-at-200

Pachter changes his predictions based on how things are doing in the market (as he should) but his track record for predicting stuff prior to getting any data is pretty weak.
Fair enough, I stand corrected

Sony's statements.

People mock patcher not because he gets every prediction wrong which would be difficult. It's that his success ratio is probably lower than a coin flip which as far as predictions makes it pretty worthless.
I don't think it's lower than a coin flip, it's that people tend to get fixated on what he gets wrong more than what he gets right.
 

Brix

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,682
Didn't amazon sell out of copies? That's a good indication it's selling very well. Plus I went digital because I was lazy and I bet a lot of people did too. My damn a $20 million ceiling?! That's a lot lol.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,191
I mean, it is easy to be reductionist with any correct predictions for anyone with hindsight bias lol. It was still stuff he did get right.

Fair enough, I stand corrected

Sony's statements.

I don't think it's lower than a coin flip, it's that people tend to get fixated on what he gets wrong more than what he gets right.
I'd day there's a high chance he is. Let's just say by most comparison rankings I'vs seen of him within his profession he's in the bottom percentile for what he does.
 

Deleted member 5491

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,249
And can you tell me who is paying you for your expert analysis? As I see it, one guy gets lucratively payed to forecast products and the other posts on reset era..... I could be wrong though....
POliticians get payed for saying shit the whole day. Does that make their shit true? No.
Pachter has a bad "Being right" ratio.
And look at the best selling games from Sony on the PS4. Nothing is close to 20 millions from them. So 10 Millions is archieveable and a high number. 20 million is a daydream.
 

tommy7154

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,370
Going to be tough but I think it will with the word of mouth. If the highest so far is 5.2m then I'm guessing 10.4 for this one.
 

criteriondog

I like the chili style
Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,286
Does anyone have an updated list with the closest to today with how many copies top PS4 games have sold?
Also, I definitely see God Of War selling 10 million units. It's likely doing TLOU numbers in terms of sales.
 

Terraforce

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
18,939
the only thing that might stop God of War IV from hitting 10 million copies is the fact that old God of War games didn't really reach that same kind of level


Sony released God of War worldwide sales figures (including downloads) back in 2012:

Game - Total Worldwide Sales
God of War - 4,617,347
God of War II - 4,244,529
God of War III - 5,197,632
God of War Collection - 2,418,516
God of War: Chains of Olympus - 3,264,178
God of War: Ghost of Sparta - 1,196,626
God of War: Origins - 711,737


To hit 10 MILLION would be a huge step up for the series...it might not get there just based on how unprecedented 10 million sales is for the series...the IP might not have that much potential

that's why personally i'm a bit skeptical about pachter's prediction

doesn't mean he doesn't have a whole bunch of perfectly reasonable predictions, though
A new IP by Guerrilla Games selling nearly 10 million copies is also unprecedented, yet here we are.

God of War for PS4 has been hyped up far more than even 3, and it's only behind games like Zelda as far as highest rated games of this gen is concerned. It's also a departure that appeals to those not interested in generic hack and slash, and has a ton of good worth of mouth.

GoW will easily blow through all previous numbers.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,143
*sees thread title*

Don't you fucks dare make those anti-Pachter prediction jokes. I want this dear game to succeed beyond our wildest imaginations.
 

Smokey_Run

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,635
It's also a departure that appeals to those not interested in generic hack and slash, and has a ton of good worth of mouth.
This describes my one friend. He tried God of War 3, but hated it. He reluctantly bought this one because he wanted something to play and we talked last night and he said it's tied with Uncharted 2 and Last of Us as his all-time favorite SP games.
 

Delusibeta

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,648
Doomed to do half of Uncharter 4's sales then. Remember, the smart money's always the exact opposite of what Patcher says.
 

VinFTW

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,476
I know this is Pachter, but, I called this and people laughed at me :'(

Still think it'll be the highest selling exclusive of the year.
 

RossoneR

Member
Oct 28, 2017
935
Sadly i dont see it. It ll sell great in usa but here ib europe its not that popular or popular like uncharted. Games masterpiece but gow still have stigma its bloody 10 hour hack and slash with no mp. I hope im wrong.

Speaking of exclusives tlou s biggest. Most rating along gta on usa and european psn. That game s aell over 10 M.
 

s3ltz3r

Banned
Nov 12, 2017
1,149
Some people were "concerned" that GoW launched "disappointingly" in the UK. Lol.

GoW is BEAST.
 
Nov 12, 2017
727
10 million lifetime sounds accurate.

20 million? Don't make me laugh. It could be the best game ever made 20 million in a 80 million install base is a hard, hard sell, especially it being a rated M game.
 

Sedated

Member
Apr 13, 2018
2,598
10mil ye I think that's an easy prediction... Horizon did almost 8mil in a year and God of war sure as hell will do more than that. I think gow in its first year (by April end next year) alone will sell 10 mil and probably Ltd would be around 14+mil
 

Orb

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,465
USA
Seems like a wild guess on his part, but it absolutely deserves every sale it makes. Incredible game.