That game turned out to be garbage though.Pachter: The Order 1886 Could Sell 5 Million By 2015 End, 10-12 Million If Sony Opts For A PS4 Bundle
Pachter is terrible at predicting game sales. I don't doubt God of War will do amazing but something like this coming from Patchter should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
Pachter predicted that the Wii U would fail, the Vita would fail, the Switch would be immensely successful, Breath of the Wild would be the highest rated game in the series, and Mario Odyssey would be the highest selling SKU of last Holiday season.
People like to harp on his failures, but everyone forgets it when he gets something right
The Last of Us is 9 million total. Uncharted 4 is 8.5 million.
I do think Spider-Man will end up being the highest selling PS4 exclusive though due to the increased worldwide appeal of the character.
People mock patcher not because he gets every prediction wrong which would be difficult. It's that his success ratio is probably lower than a coin flip which as far as predictions makes it pretty worthless.
I mean, it is easy to be reductionist with any correct predictions for anyone with hindsight bias lol. It was still stuff he did get right.To be fair:
Everyone predicted the WiiU would fail.
Most probably predicted the Vita would fail (handheld market has and always will be Nintendo's).
Ocarina of Time is still higher rated than BotW.
3D Mario on the hottest new Nintendo console being a big seller during the Holidays? Shocking!
So of the 4 things you mentioned he got right: 1 he actually got wrong and 3 aren't exactly bold predictions.
That said, I don't really keep up with his record for predictions and I'm not trying to harp on the guy. Just don't think the predictions you mentioned are all that noteworthy.
Fair enough, I stand correctedPachter certainly didn't predict the Wii U would fail...until after it failed
http://nintendotoday.com/micheal-pachter-wii-u-sell-out/
He was bullish on Switch until the price was revealed to be $300, he scaled back his tone big time after that.
https://gamingbolt.com/michael-pach...-than-expected-would-have-been-amazing-at-200
Pachter changes his predictions based on how things are doing in the market (as he should) but his track record for predicting stuff prior to getting any data is pretty weak.
Sony's statements.
I don't think it's lower than a coin flip, it's that people tend to get fixated on what he gets wrong more than what he gets right.People mock patcher not because he gets every prediction wrong which would be difficult. It's that his success ratio is probably lower than a coin flip which as far as predictions makes it pretty worthless.
10m is 100% achievable. 20m is going to be extremely hard to pull of though.
I'd day there's a high chance he is. Let's just say by most comparison rankings I'vs seen of him within his profession he's in the bottom percentile for what he does.I mean, it is easy to be reductionist with any correct predictions for anyone with hindsight bias lol. It was still stuff he did get right.
Fair enough, I stand corrected
Sony's statements.
I don't think it's lower than a coin flip, it's that people tend to get fixated on what he gets wrong more than what he gets right.
2 million for Bloodborne at last count, 7.6 million for Horizon.
Full Article: https://gamingbolt.com/god-of-war-c...ll-sell-above10-million-units-michael-pachter
Do you think he is right?
And I would never expect it entering the thread...
POliticians get payed for saying shit the whole day. Does that make their shit true? No.And can you tell me who is paying you for your expert analysis? As I see it, one guy gets lucratively payed to forecast products and the other posts on reset era..... I could be wrong though....
I can't be the only PS4 owner who's indifferent to the game, right? I played all the previous titles and it looks fun enough I guess, but I figured I'd just wait for a price drop around Black Friday.
I'd love to read one of his true reports, maybe an old one, as someone who works at consulting (on another sector) I'd love to see how the very pros work.He gets paid lots of money for writing hundreds of pages of incredibly detailed analyses on the video game industry every month. It just never gets shown to the public.
Wow that's very kind, thank you!
2 million for Bloodborne at last count, 7.6 million for Horizon.
damn that seems very low for BB...it also has had a lot more time to sell than Horizon.
A new IP by Guerrilla Games selling nearly 10 million copies is also unprecedented, yet here we are.the only thing that might stop God of War IV from hitting 10 million copies is the fact that old God of War games didn't really reach that same kind of level
Sony released God of War worldwide sales figures (including downloads) back in 2012:
Game - Total Worldwide Sales
God of War - 4,617,347
God of War II - 4,244,529
God of War III - 5,197,632
God of War Collection - 2,418,516
God of War: Chains of Olympus - 3,264,178
God of War: Ghost of Sparta - 1,196,626
God of War: Origins - 711,737
To hit 10 MILLION would be a huge step up for the series...it might not get there just based on how unprecedented 10 million sales is for the series...the IP might not have that much potential
that's why personally i'm a bit skeptical about pachter's prediction
doesn't mean he doesn't have a whole bunch of perfectly reasonable predictions, though
This describes my one friend. He tried God of War 3, but hated it. He reluctantly bought this one because he wanted something to play and we talked last night and he said it's tied with Uncharted 2 and Last of Us as his all-time favorite SP games.It's also a departure that appeals to those not interested in generic hack and slash, and has a ton of good worth of mouth.
Huh? With Smash and Pokémon releasing this year? I doubt it...I know this is Pachter, but, I called this and people laughed at me :'(
Still think it'll be the highest selling exclusive of the year.
2 million for Bloodborne at last count, 7.6 million for Horizon.