Bundy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
20,931
Over 10 million sounds about right. I think it will hit 12 million in the end.
The Last of Us is 9 million total. Uncharted 4 is 8.5 million.
Uncharted sold 8.7 million copies ~16 months ago. Pretty sure it's over 10 million by now.
And The Last of US (PS3 + PS4 remaster) should be well well over 10 million.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,967
Yeah if this game bombs then we might as well be done with gaming. At least any type of single player story.

We'll be getting Fortnite clones, Battlefield, Call of Duty and enough microtransactions to bankrupt Fort Knox for at least the next decade. And we'll deserve all of it.
 

bastardly

Member
Nov 8, 2017
10,677
GoW3 was like at 5MM right? This should easily hit 10+ when it's all said and done, but yeh Spider-Man has the most potential to be the highest selling if it delivers.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,039
Can anyone give like a ballpark figure, for a game like GOW, with all its budget and marketing, how many copies it would take for Sony to break even. Roughly speaking. I know retail takes their own cut, but with digital, Sony gets everything, etc etc.
 

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,399
What I relaized is how impressive is HZD to hit around 8 million in a year being a brand new ip with a female lead .nice job GG
 

Majiebeast

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,090
This game also has an entire month of no notable releases till Detroit in May and then tthere is nothing big till September which has Spider-Man and Tomb Raider,
 

Funkallero

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,797
Tokyo
If HZD can do around 8 million in a year without bundle God of War can easily sell 10 million lifetime...

Edit : there is a HZD bundle.
 

Budi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,921
Finland
Eight million at tops I think, which would be really impressive for God of War already. I think the new direction will help this sell much more copies than the previous entries.
 

FromAshesRise

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
923
Normally my gut says to disagree with anything Pachter says if I want to err on the side of caution and have a chance at an accurate prediction...but I think he's right here. The game is doing to sell a ton, and will be a huge keystone release for PS4. Hell I think this game is a bigger deal than Uncharted 4, and will be one of those things people invariably bring up when they talk about PS4 generations down the line.

This is one of the dumbest takes I commonly see about Pachter, since A) they come from a place of not actually understanding what the dude does for a living and B) think that people pay him thousands of dollars for extremely detailed reports based on the state of the industry and what stocks are worth buying and why for "predictions".
 

Zedelima

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,825
I think if this sells well, i could believe that Sony will make God 2 to be ps4 swan song
 

Kaako

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,736
I can also see this until the next juggernaut brings the heat. Right now, the sales must be fuego.
 

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
Wow

Damn, thats impressive shit. Pokemon and Smash will surely beat that too.

The switch attach rate is such an interesting thing. The ridicule may have been justified :X
Haha, sorry, I wasn't actually trying to ridicule, I just was trying to answer with context. Now I see it came off as snarky :P

But yeah, the Switch attach ratio is insane. Mario, Zelda, and Kart all did crazy well already, and they aren't even Nintendo's biggest games. Once Pokemon, Smash, and Animal Crossing hit (two of which are due for this year), then it will get even more insane.
 

FromAshesRise

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
923
Pachter predicted that the Wii U would fail, the Vita would fail, the Switch would be immensely successful, Breath of the Wild would be the highest rated game in the series, and Mario Odyssey would be the highest selling SKU of last Holiday season.
People like to harp on his failures, but everyone forgets it when he gets something right


The Last of Us is 9 million total. Uncharted 4 is 8.5 million.

"Predictions" are not his job either, so it's honestly so incredibly absurdly stupid and childish to pretend like some off collar interview he gives to a tech publication in which he says how he "thinks" a game is going to do, is some fundamental career move that he's staking his name on. He's an analyst. He looks at stocks and tells people where to invest.
 

Dragoon

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
11,231
Is he basing this on any stats, inside information, or just look at it like everyone here and make a prediction? Because can do that (including me who said this would hit over 10 million a while back)

Pachter predicted that the Wii U would fail, the Vita would fail, the Switch would be immensely successful, Breath of the Wild would be the highest rated game in the series, and Mario Odyssey would be the highest selling SKU of last Holiday season.
People like to harp on his failures, but everyone forgets it when he gets something right


The Last of Us is 9 million total. Uncharted 4 is 8.5 million.
Both have sold a lot more than that. Uncharted 4 sold 8.7 million in 7-8 months. Where are you getting those figures?
 
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gordofredito

Banned
Jan 16, 2018
2,992
It's hard because Uncharted 4 sells surprisingly well. And it has a multiplayer that is surprisingly popular. But we'll see!
I beat God of War last night and I really loved it. The best damn thing Sony Santa Monica has ever done for sure
 

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
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Oct 25, 2017
28,828

VinFTW

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,495
Haha, sorry, I wasn't actually trying to ridicule, I just was trying to answer with context. Now I see it came off as snarky :P

But yeah, the Switch attach ratio is insane. Mario, Zelda, and Kart all did crazy well already, and they aren't even Nintendo's biggest games. Once Pokemon, Smash, and Animal Crossing hit (two of which are due for this year), then it will get even more insane.
All good, didn't mean you personally :P

Pokemon alone will be INSANE. Smash as well, but I feel Pokemon is on another level.

Exciting times ahead.
 

Sir Guts

Use of alt account
Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,480
The guy who never predicted anything right is going to get his prediction correct for the first and last time
 

Sir Guts

Use of alt account
Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,480
He's had plenty of predictions co- oh, never mind.
giphy.gif
 

BDubsLegend

Banned
Jan 24, 2018
1,027
"Predictions" are not his job either, so it's honestly so incredibly absurdly stupid and childish to pretend like some off collar interview he gives to a tech publication in which he says how he "thinks" a game is going to do, is some fundamental career move that he's staking his name on. He's an analyst. He looks at stocks and tells people where to invest.
This. I don't understand why people get so hung up about his "educated guesses" That's all they are.
 

Dragoon

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
11,231
My receipts are the actual last numbers Sony shared.
Do you have any official numbers from Sony indicating sales beyond this? Not "surely sales are beyond this" or "it's logical" or anything. I will only cite official figures- are there any beyond this that I have missed? If yes, I will be happy to update the post.
So you're just repeating what I said. It sold 8.7m in 7 months. Spouting 8.5m almost 2 years post release doesn't make sense, regardless of rounding down.
Yeah, Smash is good and everything, but Pokemon is, well, Pokemon. I can't wait to see what it does for the Switch...
Pokemon is going to kill everything in its path when it releases. That might make jump and buy a Switch.
 

Deleted member 34239

User requested account closure
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Nov 24, 2017
1,154
POliticians get payed for saying shit the whole day. Does that make their shit true? No.
Pachter has a bad "Being right" ratio.
And look at the best selling games from Sony on the PS4. Nothing is close to 20 millions from them. So 10 Millions is archieveable and a high number. 20 million is a daydream.
Firstly, false equivalency on the first point. Secondly, the notion that Pachter has a bad forecasting ratio is absolutely and utterly ridiculous. If he did, he wouldn't have a job. Just because the guys at era and gaf like to tell you that he has a bad forecast ratio doesn't mean it's true. All i see going on here is confirmation bias at it's worst and at best, a long running joke. Finally, when your prediction is as linear and as unscientific as guessing from the highest exclusive number, you shouldn't even mention yourself in the same breath as Pach.
 

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
So you're just repeating what I said. It sold 8.7m in 7 months. Spouting 8.5m almost 2 years post release doesn't make sense, regardless of rounding down.

Pokemon is going to kill everything in its path when it releases. That might make jump and buy a Switch.
8.5 was definitely an error on my part. I have a natural tendency to round down numbers, and I should have been more careful when spouting numbers like tht. Regardless, that, at least, I corrected :P

And yeah, Pokemon will be something else. I just hope the game lives up to the immense hype it is already generating.
 

8byte

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt-account
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,880
Kansas
This is one of the dumbest takes I commonly see about Pachter, since A) they come from a place of not actually understanding what the dude does for a living and B) think that people pay him thousands of dollars for extremely detailed reports based on the state of the industry and what stocks are worth buying and why for "predictions".

Not that serious. It's a running joke that has carried over from the last community to this one, all predicated on his Wii predictions way back in 2006. Sorry you missed it.
 

LV-426

Member
Oct 29, 2017
594
My buddy and I talked about this last night. Think 10 million easily myself. Game is fucking incredible.
 

HighJump

Member
Oct 27, 2017
443
Alabama
We might need to revisit that thread we had about which PS4 exclusive selling highest this year.

I for one underestimated GoW. Spider-Man's got its work cut out for it.
 

Deleted member 26104

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 30, 2017
2,362
Depends how long they bundle it for. Chuck it in with a Slim from now until the holiday period and it should hit 10 easily. Can't see it getting close to 10 without significant bundling.

Nah, Horizon did 7.6 without bundles and it's still not done selling.
I'm sure HZD was bundled, and a quick google shows that there were some.
 
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